There's a chance you will later decide that something might have been a slightly better fit for your needs. But you clearly know that you like BRV. A lot. So it will never be a 
terrible choice to have purchased there. Remember: The value of a timeshare is in using it! This is something that the broader 
DVC community does not always understand in their bones in the way that TUGgers might.
So, about those "experts". A lot of them are involved in the broader DVC ecosystem--either they are sponsored by the resale brokers, or they are directly affiliated with one. So they will tend to put the best spin on things. If you really want to know what past booking patterns have looked like, there is hard data here: 
https://dvcfieldguide.com/availability-tables
DVC Help has some too, but it appears they have had some data collection issues, because they have a swath of weeks for which no availability was available anywhere at any time, which I am pretty sure means they weren't collecting data those weeks.
And, as mentioned above, past performance is no indiciation of future results. There are a vareity of reasons for this, not all of which are necessarily going to get worse. For example, we are just coming out of a period where there was an excess of poitns sloshing in the system because banking rules were significantly relaxed during the lockdown. Things also ebb and flow with the macroeconomic environment---when times are tough, more points go into breakage.
I've had surprisingly good luck with waitlists. I do find 
other things by stalking, but so far, my waitlists have hit before I have found the same thing online most of the time. I am not typically looking for unicorns, though, so that might help.