7 month availability getting more difficult

[Dean]

Those are the current numbers. The reallocation happen start of 2017 when they created the Standard and Preferred categories. I am saying what people are asking for has already been done. I do not think a standard at SSR should be or will be reduced any further than it already has been. It is comparable to OKW now.

I agree it's not likely carrousel would go down further. But if they did decrease slightly, the others would have to go elsewhere. The point I was making is that in order to create a differential between carrousel and the rest of the standard, they'd have to either lower Carrousel or raise the rest of the standard while slightly lowering the higher view. Realistically they'd likely leave it the same and just make it a booking category. That way those reserving late and those for exchanges could be directed to carrousel.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Going back to the SSR conversation, it is one of our favorite resorts...we like it better than OKW...by far. However, we think the points should be more comparable to OKW since they are basically the same "type/location." SSR is over-pointed. I would stay there a lot more if those point values would be reduced about 20 points per week.

I'm a little confused since the reallocation done over a year ago created the standard view category that is pretty close to OKW and in some cases I think it's identical. They couldn't make everything equal because the at this point they can't change the overall total but they they did make a modification that leaves a category that is comparable to OKW. I agree that it should have been that for the entire resort from the start but at least they did do something within the constrainments that they have at this point.

 

[MJB62676]

Checked the RAT tonight. Looks like a whole lotta walkin' goin' on.

 

[SL6827]

I agree it's not likely carrousel would go down further. But if they did decrease slightly, the others would have to go elsewhere. The point I was making is that in order to create a differential between carrousel and the rest of the standard, they'd have to either lower Carrousel or raise the rest of the standard while slightly lowering the higher view. Realistically they'd likely leave it the same and just make it a booking category. That way those reserving late and those for exchanges could be directed to carrousel.

Making it a booking category would be nice. So for those who book standard, they would be assured they weren't being put in the carrousel location.

 

[SL6827]

Checked the RAT tonight. Looks like a whole lotta walkin' goin' on.

Ok, so how can you tell this exactly?

 

[Marionnette]

Ok, so how can you tell this exactly?

Dates for specific villas for just prior to the 11-month window are opening up as the 11-month window moves each day. You can see availability opening up on the RAT.

 

[jerseygal]

FIRST time since we purchased in 2008, that at 7 months exactly, was not able to get either BC or BWV for F&W. Certain that opening of Toy Story Land in HS has a lot to do with it. LOVE the convenience of walking to Epcot during F&W, but very happy that I was able to get BLT, 3 nights, lakeview during F&W at exactly 7 months. Looking forward to trying BLT. Went on waitlist for both BWV and BC exactly at 7 months, very very doubtful, as HS now will be quite popular probably over the next several years.

 

[SL6827]

FIRST time since we purchased in 2008, that at 7 months exactly, was not able to get either BC or BWV for F&W. Certain that opening of Toy Story Land in HS has a lot to do with it. LOVE the convenience of walking to Epcot during F&W, but very happy that I was able to get BLT, 3 nights, lakeview during F&W at exactly 7 months. Looking forward to trying BLT. Went on waitlist for both BWV and BC exactly at 7 months, very very doubtful, as HS now will be quite popular probably over the next several years.

Wow, very interesting and foretelling.

 

[kboo]

Is the walking at 7mo or 11mo? I get that 7mo walking is v risky, but I'm curious why people would be walking in early April (at 11 mo). I thought Easter season was not preferred because it costs so much in points and parks are too crowded?

 

[Pluto777]

1. Much more noticeable in studios than 1 beds.
2. Increase in price and points required per night has priced many new buyers out of 1 beds.
3. Thus increased proportion jostling for studios at 7 months.
4. A point sold at Grand Floridian has much less buying power there than at say Boardwalk= Disproportionate demand for older desirable locations.
5. Hawaii, many will go once or twice, but all other stays at WDW.
6. Bungalows.

Things will only get worse for studios. People will buy in at Riviera, which will be sold as super luxury resort with prices and points requirements on a par with VGF. Many will look for the cheapest options to spend those points they've struggled financially as it is, to acquire.

SSR gets a lot of blame, but it is only a small amount of the picture because at busy times, people cannot get a studio anywhere 3-4 months out. However there's often plenty of 1 bed choice, even in desirable but expensive points per night resorts.

DVC was originally marketed as a home away from home, with multi bedroom suite and kitchens.

It's increasingly becoming just a prepaid hotel room due to price.

Well said. Is there any chance that Disney DVD can decide to rent out the Bungalows strictly on a cash basis and return those points to the system? Maybe some of that cash could be used to offset all those unused Bungalow/Cabin points that are draining the system and loosen up the 7 month windows?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Is there any chance that Disney DVD can decide to rent out the Bungalows strictly on a cash basis and return those points to the system?

Well, if you figure that Disney own a minimum of ~2.5 million points on property, and at Poly they have to own a minimum of 80k points, it's unlikely they'd be able to block them all out without other issues. They would have to do ROFR on nearly a million points, if I'm not mistaken, to get the bungalows out of circulation.

A similar number of points will be tied to CCV cabins.

 

[Pluto777]

7 months, 3 months or 1 month out.... SSR has openings. That means the SSR owners are not booking SSR. They go ANYWHERE else. Since it is a bigger resort, there are more owners trying to go elsewhere and they clog up all of the other resorts. OKW is also large, but they seem to have a loyal fan base of owners who only stay in their preferred OKW locations. I only stay there if we can get HH area, but since we dont own there, it usually fills up.

I own at VGF and do not even attempt to check on availability unless it is more than 7 months out. Most of the time, only 1br's are available (sometimes the 2br higher point lakeview) So you cant blame the SSR army on that. I think those are owners who hold something so they dont get shut out and have to stay at SSR or AKV. I mostly go in the fall or sometimes around spring break, summertime is too hot to wait in those lines. I dont think VGF is as busy as Poly tho because they always seem to have nothing but bungalows available. You can book for cash all the time but not DVC.

"So you cant blame the SSR army on that. I think those are owners who hold something so they dont get shut out and have to stay at SSR or AKV."
-As a private in the SSR "army" I have to ask, how often are SSR owners guaranteed to always have the option of access to AKV? If this is the case, why would anyone pay the higher point AND MF cost to buy AKV vs SSR?

 

[Pluto777]

Well, if you figure that Disney own a minimum of ~2.5 million points on property, and at Poly they have to own a minimum of 80k points, it's unlikely they'd be able to block them all out without other issues. They would have to do ROFR on nearly a million points, if I'm not mistaken, to get the bungalows out of circulation.

A similar number of points will be tied to CCV cabins.

only a million points? Hang on while I check for loose change in my pockets ; )

 

[SL6827]

Do you think Disney will continue to build DVC resorts with "cabins or bungalows" in the future?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Do you think Disney will continue to build DVC resorts with "cabins or bungalows" in the future?

Absolutely. It's $$$.

 

[gillep]

Is the walking at 7mo or 11mo? I get that 7mo walking is v risky, but I'm curious why people would be walking in early April (at 11 mo). I thought Easter season was not preferred because it costs so much in points and parks are too crowded?

The Star Wars half marathon in 2019 is April 7th, I know the RunDisney races are very popular with DVC members (we are part of that group to be honest) so maybe that's it, although I am not sure it is necessary.

 

[gillep]

"So you cant blame the SSR army on that. I think those are owners who hold something so they dont get shut out and have to stay at SSR or AKV."
-As a private in the SSR "army" I have to ask, how often are SSR owners guaranteed to always have the option of access to AKV? If this is the case, why would anyone pay the higher point AND MF cost to buy AKV vs SSR?

I have no idea how likely it is to get AKV for each different season and room type, but if you want a chance at the value or club level rooms, or if you have a strong preference of staying at Jambo House vs Kidani (especially for studios) then it makes sense to own at AKV rather than take your chances at 7 months.

 

[Pluto777]

I try not to let my personal situation or preferences color such opinions. My goal is to take the information I have and make a judgement as to what should be done and what likely will be done. How it affects myself or someone else should be irrelevant to that opinion. For the difference between 1 BR and studios I look at the relative differences, sleeping arrangements and how other companies handle the same situation. For DVC, I also look at at the relative cash prices. I further consider that DVC has a contractual obligation to reallocate if the demand is truly far enough off. Of course there will be winners and losers any time there is such a change. Points wise it should be a wash but % wise such a change will affect studios more than 1 BR, esp at Poly. Anyone buying in either knew or should have known about that possibility and hopefully most of them accounted for that risk up front, they should have. DVC does have a history of dragging their feet on needed reallocations but they've done better the last decade than the previous one.

You make a great point about POLY, one I hadn't thought of (I don't own there BTW)..

 

[Pluto777]

I have no idea how likely it is to get AKV for each different season and room type, but if you want a chance at the value or club level rooms, or if you have a strong preference of staying at Jambo House vs Kidani (especially for studios) then it makes sense to own at AKV rather than take your chances at 7 months.

Well, just out of curiosity I just checked the RAT for 7 months out from today - and I see NOTHING at all in AKV. Granted we are in the dreaded early December 7 month window, but if someone from SSR DID want it now, they would have a real problem. Obviously this changes day to day and certainly season to season, but that's where it stands right now - and its why in addition to being a 'private' at SSR, (1 contract) I am a corporal (2 contracts) at BLT. I was genuinely concerned about being stuck someplace and didn't want the risk..

 

[Pluto777]

I have no idea how likely it is to get AKV for each different season and room type, but if you want a chance at the value or club level rooms, or if you have a strong preference of staying at Jambo House vs Kidani (especially for studios) then it makes sense to own at AKV rather than take your chances at 7 months.

Also, has anyone noticed the UNREAL increase in resale price at AKV the last few months? In my opinion it is crazy - even compared to other DVC price increases. Anyone have any idea why it has popped up so high lately?