5th theme park?

[dbm20th]

Thanks raidermatt. That's exactly what we're going for with the crowd calendar. It's not an attendance projection, but a guide to how long you'll wait in line. In the end, that's what we think most people care about.

I've not added up the individual days of the crowd calendar to see whether one might be able to make an annual attendance projection based on those numbers, but if anyone wants to give it a shot, I can provide the data.

Incidentally, a number of things go into making the crowd calendar predictions, including hotel occupancy rates for more than 300 Orlando hotels, vacation schedules for the top 100 school districts east of the Mississippi, Magic Kingdom park hours, weather, and (of course) our in-park observations. I think the crowd blog details a lot of these things. Interesting reading if this is your cup of tea.

Finally, note that the crowd blog also contains our analysis of how good the predictions are versus what we actually observed in the parks. So we'll tell you how good our past predictions were. Last time I checked, the predictions were averaging +/- 8 minutes from what actually happenend on the rides. I'm not aware of any publicly available predictions that have that level of accuracy, but if anyone knows of one, feel free to drop me a line: len at touringplans dot com.

Hope this helps!

Len

Thanks Len. Can we therefore determine, even with this information, that the week before Christmas, ending on Dec 22 or 23, is NOT one of the busiest times of the year? That is, after all, the point here. (I know what your answer is, but can you tell the folks here?)

 

[Another Voice]

Can we therefore determine, even with this information, that the week before Christmas, ending on Dec 22 or 23, is NOT one of the busiest times of the year?

Then why did you say you couldn't book a hotel room? It's rather funny that you're saying things are so booming that there's no room at the inn - but it's one of the slowest times of the year! So why couldn't you make a reservation - why did you say things were SO busy.

So - which is it?

Are things busy or ar they not? Are the hotels empty or bursting at the seems. Is there a two minute wait for Space Moutain or a 90 minute wait for Space Moutain.

You've argueed both sides - what's your "truth?".

Projections based on ride wait times are wonderful for planning a trip - but they mean far less than when trying to judge the park's actual attendance. Is the Haunted Mansion running 1 ER or 2? How theaters is Soaring running? How many busses out of safari? It's very easy to get wait times at 30,000 guests in-park as it is when there are 60,000.

And so now your left with trying to bully some other numbers that are "It's not an attendance projection, but a guide to how long you'll wait in line." to support your claim.

Talk about twisting facts...indeed.

 

[dbm20th]

Then why did you say you couldn't book a hotel room? It's rather funny that you're saying things are so booming that there's no room at the inn - but it's one of the slowest times of the year! So why couldn't you make a reservation - why did you say things were SO busy.

So - which is it?

Are things busy or ar they not? Are the hotels empty or bursting at the seems. Is there a two minute wait for Space Moutain or a 90 minute wait for Space Moutain.

You've argueed both sides - what's your "truth?".

Projections based on ride wait times are wonderful for planning a trip - but they mean far less than when trying to judge the park's actual attendance. Is the Haunted Mansion running 1 ER or 2? How theaters is Soaring running? How many busses out of safari? It's very easy to get wait times at 30,000 guests in-park as it is when there are 60,000.

And so now your left with trying to bully some other numbers that are "It's not an attendance projection, but a guide to how long you'll wait in line." to support your claim.

Talk about twisting facts...indeed.

AV, what are you talking about?? I never said things were booming! Nor did I say they were SO busy? What I said was the your determination that this week is "one of the busiest times of the year" was wrong. The rest must be from someone else. Easy man. Ten deep breaths

 

[MJMcBride]

Projections based on ride wait times are wonderful for planning a trip - but they mean far less than when trying to judge the park's actual attendance.

I imagine that park's attendance would be the number 1 factor is wait times. Not the only factor, but the biggest one.

 

[YoHo]

First, Thanks Len, I'm always a little harsh around here. I don't want you to think I don't appreciate the work you've done.

I imagine that park's attendance would be the number 1 factor is wait times. Not the only factor, but the biggest one.

It's a factor yes, but it also determines staffing levels. Which AV outlined rather well and you apparently missed or activly are avoiding.

Disney tries to maintain a certain wait time on every attraction for many reasons. They also try to not over staff on uncrowded days.

Times like Christmas and Easter are rough, because there is much more potential for traffic then normal.

As AV said. The Magic Kingdom could have 30,000 or 60,000 and if staffed right, you'd be hard pressed to know the difference.


The point of this entire excersize isn't to prove that the week before Christmas is busy. That is not in debate by anyone who has followed this for more then a handful of years. The point is that Disney's attendence is off. Given that those of us that hammer on this have been saying it for a number of years now and that lentesta's calender only takes into account the last three years, we can pretty much throw that data out the window.

 

[hniki234]

Well I just checked DisneyWorld.com for a package the week before Chirstmas - one of the busiest times of the year. Not only were all of the resorts available (including the "always sold out" All Stars and Pop) - they offered me the food package for free as well.

Sure doesn't look like millions of people are flooding in soon, does it.

So I tried a date in April, just in case Disney just opened a bunch of holiday rooms or something. Again - every resort available and free food.

Now you know why Disney is knocking down all those rooms at the Animal Kingdom Lodge and the Contemporary - and why the other half of Pop Century is rotting in the sun.

I'd like to know how you were offered the food package for free. I'm currently booked for the week before Christmas and I didn't receive a food package for free. Also, I just went to disneyworld.com to do what you did and was not offered a free dining package. Granted, it looked as if the hotels were open for reservations, but there was no free dining. Just curious.

 

[Another Voice]

The real point in all of this is that outward appearances aren't direct indications of what's really going on.

A twenty minute wait only really means it’s a twenty minute wait – not that the hotels are filled and that everything is fine.

Disney is huge company, so huge that most of it doesn’t know what the rest is doing. If it’s hard from the inside, those of us here trying to read the tea leaves are in for a massive difficult job.

That’s why talking about rumors is important – there’s a lot more going on than what bus drivers say or what someone saw on a Travel Channel show last year.

It becomes even more important when people are spending their kids college funds on timeshares or even the average family is faced with spending thousands on a single trip.

That was my objection – getting everyone to be “excited” over long dead rumors like Beastly Kingdom or the Villains Park. Disney doesn’t mind it (‘cause rumors are cheaper than new rides), but the I believe people really ought to understand the world instead of believing in wishes.

 

[dbm20th]

That is not in debate by anyone who has followed this for more then a handful of years.

Correct. Anyone I know of who has actually studied such things and is more than a casual observer feels that the week before Christmas is not one of the busiest times of the year. I can't believe this is still being debated.

Staffing makes a difference, as do many other factors. But the fact remains that if this were ACTUALLY "one of the busiest times of year" so busy in fact that one would expect to see limited to no availability at resorts, this number (the maximum wait time) would be much larger. Those times include;

the week IN BETWEEN Christmas and New Year's Day
Easter Week
All of July, especially after the weekend of the 4th
And to a slightly lesser extent Spring Break, President's Week and Memorial Day weekend

Those are the times of year one can expect to find very limited if any availability at WDW 3 weeks out. NOT the week AV stated. My goodness this is ridiculous.

THIS IS ALL I AM SAYING

 

[YoHo]

So you're not saying much. Sigh.

 

[Another Voice]

I'd like to know how you were offered the food package for free. I'm currently booked for the week before Christmas and I didn't receive a food package for free.

It was on the third page of "Vacation Packages" reservation process, the page after you select the ticket package. There are a several "upgrades" you can select - one of which is the Disney Dining Plan. I picked that, the computer went off the refigure the price, and it came back with a price of "Included" and no increase to the package price.

 

[dbm20th]

A twenty minute wait only really means it’s a twenty minute wait – not that the hotels are filled and that everything is fine.

Agree, but what you said was "this is one of the busiest times of the year". That is incorrect and we are still talking about it.

That’s why talking about rumors is important – there’s a lot more going on than what bus drivers say or what someone saw on a Travel Channel show last year.

And you do an admirable job at exposing that for us. I don't want you to think that I don't appreciate that, even if I disagree with your opinion on what is "great" or when the crowds flood the gates.

That was my objection – getting everyone to be “excited” over long dead rumors like Beastly Kingdom or the Villains Park.

True enough. But that wasn't my point, but we went over that already.

 

[dbm20th]

So you're not saying much. Sigh.

Bingo!!! Hooray for Yo-Ho!!!

All I was trying to do was point out that AV's crowd estimate was wrong. That's all, nothing else. If he had said he got full availibilty in the week between Christmas and New Year's I would have agreed with him.

 

[YoHo]

Bingo!!! Hooray for Yo-Ho!!!

All I was trying to do was point out that AV's crowd estimate was wrong. That's all, nothing else. If he had said he got full availibilty in the week between Christmas and New Year's I would have agreed with him.

But traditionally, that's not true. Disney itself has planned for the week before Christmas being one of the busiest. The fact that over the last three down years, the only years for which you have provided data, it's been down means nothing in context.

I need to find my old Unofficial guide from the Mid 90s. Where it specifically called out that week.

 

[minnie61650]

It was on the third page of "Vacation Packages" reservation process, the page after you select the ticket package. There are a several "upgrades" you can select - one of which is the Disney Dining Plan. I picked that, the computer went off the refigure the price, and it came back with a price of "Included" and no increase to the package price.

Wow!

You were either awarded a dream for the YOMD or there was a computer glitch.

Lucky you!

Too bad you were just pricing things out and were unable to take advantage of such a great offer.

 

[Another Voice]

I got the package for free for two different attempts between 12/19 and 12/13 and again for mid-April. If it's a computer glitch, it's a big one.

 

[minnie61650]

I got the package for free for two different attempts between 12/19 and 12/13 and again for mid-April. If it's a computer glitch, it's a big one.

Fiddle Sticks!!!!
I just tried to book BWI for 2 adults for those dates with a 7 day MYW package.

My cost was 2,659.06
When I addecd the dining package the cost inceased to $3114.94

I guess my computer just won't let me in on the glitch.

Bad computer!!!

 

[raidermatt]

Thanks raidermatt. That's exactly what we're going for with the crowd calendar. It's not an attendance projection, but a guide to how long you'll wait in line. In the end, that's what we think most people care about.

I've not added up the individual days of the crowd calendar to see whether one might be able to make an annual attendance projection based on those numbers, but if anyone wants to give it a shot, I can provide the data.

Incidentally, a number of things go into making the crowd calendar predictions, including hotel occupancy rates for more than 300 Orlando hotels, vacation schedules for the top 100 school districts east of the Mississippi, Magic Kingdom park hours, weather, and (of course) our in-park observations. I think the crowd blog details a lot of these things. Interesting reading if this is your cup of tea.

Finally, note that the crowd blog also contains our analysis of how good the predictions are versus what we actually observed in the parks. So we'll tell you how good our past predictions were. Last time I checked, the predictions were averaging +/- 8 minutes from what actually happenend on the rides. I'm not aware of any publicly available predictions that have that level of accuracy, but if anyone knows of one, feel free to drop me a line: len at touringplans dot com.

Hope this helps!

Len

Thanks for the insight, Len!

I guess I should have said newer. As with anything else different guests have different expectations when experiencing an attraction.

This is true. I should have been more clear. When I said you were mistaken, I meant with regard to your comment that AV, and specifically AV, would be pleasantly surprised.

 

[hniki234]

I got the package for free for two different attempts between 12/19 and 12/13 and again for mid-April. If it's a computer glitch, it's a big one.

It must be just your computer then because when I selected the upgrade it came back with a higher price. Wish I had your computer!

 

[GoofyasGoofy]

no it won't

It just so happens that Disney now owns the theme park rights to a boy wizard by the name of Harry Potter! Let the magic begin!

 

[YoHo]

Disney has been rumored to own those rights for years now.