5th theme park?

[YoHo]

I want to talk more about the 3 years worth of Data collection. It's interesting to note that WDW's numbers have been off since 2001. In fact they were getting ready to fall prior to 9/11. In addition, rumors from inside the company have been pointing to major drop offs for a number of years now. Disney doesn't actually publish an accurate stat.

Now we see that they say over the past 3 years, a week that is traditionally one of the worst isn't predicted to be that bad. Sorta agrees with AV's point huh?

Of course, that would require some actual knowledge of WDW's traditional trends. Something it's clear not everyone has.

 

[YoHo]

Ok I finally found my stats. I've done literaly years of research through Disney and thier Attendance reports they give out every year( Read never releaese).

Now my data is mostly based on wait times for the Wed Way People mover and how many times I spot Chip and Dale.

 

[MJMcBride]

dbm, why do you constantly insist on getting into these arguments with us?

Somebody has to teach you people something. Might as well be him.

 

[dbm20th]

OK, I'm sorry guys, but I'm going with Len Testa's numbers on this. Here they are. The final number is the crowd index based on wait times.

Sun, 17 Dec '06 6
Mon, 18 Dec '06 5
Tue, 19 Dec '06 4
Wed, 20 Dec '06 6
Thu, 21 Dec '06 4
Fri, 22 Dec '06 4
Sat, 23 Dec '06 6
Sun, 24 Dec '06 10
Mon, 25 Dec '06 10

If you want to make fun of Len, or me for using his figures, that's fine with me. But I know what he does, and I trust it. If you choose to trust something else go right ahead. But these numbers correspond with my experience being there at that time.

 

[dbm20th]

Now we see that they say over the past 3 years, a week that is traditionally one of the worst isn't predicted to be that bad. Sorta agrees with AV's point huh?

Huh? He said it was one of "the most crowded times of the year". These numbers prove that wrong. If he said "not that bad", I would have agreed.

Of course, that would require some actual knowledge of WDW's traditional trends. Something it's clear not everyone has

But this website does. Whether you do or not.

 

[Another Voice]

Sorry to miss out on the fun - but real world stuff, you know.

So I'm to take it that the week before Chiristmas is, according to the websites, so dead that any can prance on any ride without any kind of wait.

BUT

The the hotels are so booked people are willing to sell their childern on eBay to afford sleepping on the floor in the All Star's lobby.

Which is it people? Or is everyone spending their time at Gatorland?

As to the hotel rooms - reservations work just like trying to book an airline ticket. You know, you find out that the person sitting next to you paid half of what you did, but you feel better becasue the person across the ailse paid more than first class?

Blocks are rooms are assigned to different sales channels - some to the web, some to call centers, some to agencies, some to airlines, some to Expedia, some to the nephews of some V.P. in the maintenance department. Just becaue the block your tapping is "booked" doesn't mean all of the rooms at the hotel are filled - any more than just because you can't get that $99 round trip ticket doesn't mean the plane's full.

The more rooms Disney holds out of the system, the higher price they can get for them. It's a yield management game - trying to juggle the demand for the rooms against the highest price you can get for them. Disney doesn't like Annual Passholders, DVCers or "frequent" guests buying rooms during heavy periods. These guests don't spend as much money as the blow-it-all-on-the-big-trip crowd, and just like retail that "brand" you sell things through has a lot to do with it. Disney can get a lot higher price by selling a room through the American Express Gold Card website than it can through a travel agent.

Seriously - look at the situation. If rooms were so hard to come by why hasn't the second half of Pop Century been started? Numbers can always be twisted, especially if the numbers are incomplete and subject to wild speculation. But Disney's actions - closing wings and knocking down rooms - can tell you a lot about what's going on.

 

[dbm20th]

So you think the Unofficial Guide is twisting numbers?

 

[EUROPACL]

So you think the Unofficial Guide is twisting numbers?

Twisting...no. Inaccurate or missing the true picture...yes. Wait times for attractions is a horrible way predict crowd levels. There are so many things that can effect wait times. Number of attractions open, Number of Fast Passes, Staffing, Whims of the crowd, types of guest in the park that day( regulars, first timers(whats a fastpass?), commandos), breakdowns, how close is it to parade time or fireworks.

Remember there are three types of Lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.

 

[dbm20th]

Twisting...no. Inaccurate or missing the true picture...yes. Wait times for attractions is a horrible way predict crowd levels. There are so many things that can effect wait times. Number of attractions open, Number of Fast Passes, Staffing, Whims of the crowd, types of guest in the park that day( regulars, first timers(whats a fastpass?), commandos).

Remember there are three types of Lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.

Okay, believe me that this debate means nothing to me. I have been there during that time, and these figures are what they are. This is NOT one of the busiest weeks of the year, but if you believe different, that's fine. Continue with the OP. This part is pretty silly, and I am sorry I have kept at it this long. If you don't want to believe these figures and the people who stand by them, that's no skin off my back.

 

[EUROPACL]

Okay, believe me that this debate means nothing to me.

NNNNNNNOOOOOOOOO.......KAHNNNNNNNN!!!!!

 

[MJMcBride]

Wait times for attractions is a horrible way predict crowd levels. There are so many things that can effect wait times. Number of attractions open, Number of Fast Passes, Staffing, Whims of the crowd, types of guest in the park that day( regulars, first timers(whats a fastpass?), commandos), breakdowns, how close is it to parade time or fireworks.

Wait times is still one of the best way to judge how crowded it is from an average standpoint. Plus, it addresses the reason we care about crowds - wait times. It is certainly not a "horrible" way to determine it

 

[EUROPACL]

Wait times is still one of the best way to judge how crowded it is from an average standpoint. Plus, it addresses the reason we care about crowds - wait times. It is certainly not a "horrible" way to determine it

Sort of the way you can tell how crowded a restraunt is by how long your food takes. Or how busy the call center is by how long you wait on hold. Or how crowded the Interstate is by how long you wait in line at a toll booth. Or how many packages UPS delivered in a day based on what time you got yours.

 

[minnie61650]

...........

Numbers can always be twisted, especially if the numbers are incomplete and subject to wild speculation. But Disney's actions - closing wings and knocking down rooms - can tell you a lot about what's going on.

The North Wing had hurrican damage so they closed it. Did they close it so they could repair and refurbish it ? Or are they tearing it down? We do not know yet.

Are they going to build the 15 story tower?
If they do is it going to be DVC or are they going to deluxe suites in the tower to meet the needs of larger families who want a seperate sleeping area for the adults but who enjoy a hotel feel instead of the "home away from home" feel ?

I am hoping for DVC. I do not own any DVC points because I have been waiting for a DVC with monorail access.

As for twisting numbers go ahead and twistthem if it makes you happy.
Be my guest.

BTW

I think you would be pleasently surprised if you came to WDW and saw/ride some of the new attractions.

 

[raidermatt]

Wait times is still one of the best way to judge how crowded it is from an average standpoint. Plus, it addresses the reason we care about crowds - wait times. It is certainly not a "horrible" way to determine it

I think its a great way given the purpose of their projections. Their readers want to know how busy it will "feel", and as you said, that really does mostly mean wait times. Guests don't care how many people came through the turnstyles, or how many rooms are booked over at Pop (unless they're stuck next to a cheerleading squad at 3am).

But its a suspect method when it comes to trying to judge attendance, because as has been noted, its only one indication, and an imperfect one at that.

In my mind, there's little doubt that the week between Cmas and NY's is busier than the week before Cmas. But I think that this year, most kids are out of school for that full week leading up to Cmas. That means two things... more families travelling, but also more ready and willing labor.

It makes sense to me that crowds would jump pretty significantly the week of 12/18, but Disney probably has the ability to handle the increase without overloading the queues. When things REALLY get busy the following week, there isn't much more capacity to add anywhere, and wait times skyrocket. Hence the jump from a "4" rating to a "10". But I don't think that really translates into crowds of more than twice the size.

 

[raidermatt]

As for twisting numbers go ahead and twist them if it makes you happy.
Be my guest.

I think the point is that numbers can't always be trusted, and at the very least, you need a good understanding of where they came from before they can be of real use. Certainly when it comes to corporations, number twisting is an art form.

I think you would be pleasently surprised if you came to WDW and saw/ride some of the new attractions.

I've experienced some of the new attactions, and I think I can say with a very high level of certainty that you are mistaken on this.

 

[minnie61650]

I think the point is that numbers can't always be trusted, and at the very least, you need a good understanding of where they came from before they can be of real use. Certainly when it comes to corporations, number twisting is an art form.


I've experienced some of the new attactions, and I think I can say with a very high level of certainty that you are mistaken on this.

I guess I should have said newer. As with anything else different guests have different expectations when experiencing an attraction. I admit that I have not ridden E. E. due to a medical condition but DH and I do enjoy riding Soarin. I think Soarin is very done.Feeling the wind in my face and smelling the orange groves and evergreen trees makes the experience seem real to me. It ust ends too soon for me.
During our trip last September DH and I went to Turtle Talk 3 times. I just loved seeing the children react and interact with Crush.
The children were thoroughly amazed and they thought they were really talking to Crush!
That attraction really does the Disney "magic"and the WOW factor for the children.

Walt built DL and planned WDW (the MK part) to be a family park where families could enjoy time together. I feel that Soarin and Turtle Talk are an extension of Walt's dreams.

As for crowd level charts ---During really busy times of the year Disney opens extra queues, seasonal rides, and provides more entertainment to control & manage crowds. So even using those charts we do not get an accurate account of how many guests are in the parks. A good gauge is to look at people on main street at any given time but of course depending on daily events that is not always accurate either.

JMHO

 

[peter11435]

Hence the jump from a "4" rating to a "10". But I don't think that really translates into crowds of more than twice the size.

As someone who sees the predicted and actual attendance at my park every day, I can assure you that it does indeed double.

 

[dbm20th]

I think its a great way given the purpose of their projections. Their readers want to know how busy it will "feel", and as you said, that really does mostly mean wait times. Guests don't care how many people came through the turnstyles, or how many rooms are booked over at Pop (unless they're stuck next to a cheerleading squad at 3am).

But its a suspect method when it comes to trying to judge attendance, because as has been noted, its only one indication, and an imperfect one at that.

In my mind, there's little doubt that the week between Cmas and NY's is busier than the week before Cmas. But I think that this year, most kids are out of school for that full week leading up to Cmas. That means two things... more families travelling, but also more ready and willing labor.

It makes sense to me that crowds would jump pretty significantly the week of 12/18, but Disney probably has the ability to handle the increase without overloading the queues. When things REALLY get busy the following week, there isn't much more capacity to add anywhere, and wait times skyrocket. Hence the jump from a "4" rating to a "10". But I don't think that really translates into crowds of more than twice the size.

Whether kids are out of school is taken into account in the crowd calendar. In fact, they also take into account, among other things, the occupation rates for hotels all-over the Orlando area and not just at WDW. The "wait times" is used as a way to communicate the data. I mean, what do people really care about when they ask "how crowded is it"? They care about how long they are going to wait at a given attraction. The point is that this is not just about wait times, or it would be called "wait times chart" and not "crowd calendar".

If you read the whole thing and the blog, it explains that they are with 10 minutes of accuracy. It's hard to believe the massive effort that goes into this, with regards to man hours especially, but this is what they do.

Matt, you are correct that this doesn't prove the crowd doubles in a week, though it very well may. What it does seem to do, however, is tell us that there is a significant difference between that week and the next. But more importantly is the topic at hand. Is this week "one of the busiest times?". I'm not sure anyone with any knowledge of the subject would debate that the week before Christmas Week is NOT one of the busiest times. It's not. But really, this is not very exciting

 

[lentesta]

I think its a great way given the purpose of their projections. Their readers want to know how busy it will "feel", and as you said, that really does mostly mean wait times. Guests don't care how many people came through the turnstyles, or how many rooms are booked over at Pop (unless they're stuck next to a cheerleading squad at 3am).

Thanks raidermatt. That's exactly what we're going for with the crowd calendar. It's not an attendance projection, but a guide to how long you'll wait in line. In the end, that's what we think most people care about.

I've not added up the individual days of the crowd calendar to see whether one might be able to make an annual attendance projection based on those numbers, but if anyone wants to give it a shot, I can provide the data.

Incidentally, a number of things go into making the crowd calendar predictions, including hotel occupancy rates for more than 300 Orlando hotels, vacation schedules for the top 100 school districts east of the Mississippi, Magic Kingdom park hours, weather, and (of course) our in-park observations. I think the crowd blog details a lot of these things. Interesting reading if this is your cup of tea.

Finally, note that the crowd blog also contains our analysis of how good the predictions are versus what we actually observed in the parks. So we'll tell you how good our past predictions were. Last time I checked, the predictions were averaging +/- 8 minutes from what actually happenend on the rides. I'm not aware of any publicly available predictions that have that level of accuracy, but if anyone knows of one, feel free to drop me a line: len at touringplans dot com.

Hope this helps!

Len

 

[MJMcBride]

Sort of the way you can tell how crowded a restraunt is by how long your food takes. Or how busy the call center is by how long you wait on hold. Or how crowded the Interstate is by how long you wait in line at a toll booth. Or how many packages UPS delivered in a day based on what time you got yours.

Not really, no. But you are touching on what reason we care about each of your scenarios