5th gate and DVC

[CraigInPA]

My wife and I were riding the bus between Animal Kingdom and Contemporary last night discussing how Disney blew the opportunity to have the Harry Potter franchise. HP created huge attendance figures for Universal, which was struggling. Universal did great things with the franchise over the last 10 years. Had Disney obtained the HP license, they probably would have put it over in HS, instead of the Star Wars attractions. But, they could also have made Star Wars a fifth gate, or even HP a fifth gate. With Disney money, that was possible.

Instead, Universal has become more than a two day amusement park (which is how I thought of it pre-HP). The last time I was there, I attended a concert, and rode virtually every ride in both parks (and the better ones 2-3 times each), all in 3 days (I stayed at one of their deluxe hotels, so I could skip the lines). Universal was like HS for me...visit for a couple of days, ride the rides, see a show or two, and then move on to another park. Is there a Universal equivalent to Epcot's World Showcase, the animals at Animal Kingdom, or even the sheer number of rides for all ages at MK? No. Will I go to Universal again? Sure, but only for a few days.

 

[tjkraz]

I think Universal’s new park will be spectacular, will drive greater profits, and probably hurt Disney a bit as well. Folks won’t stop going to Disney, but they might spend a little less time at WDW in order to check out Epic Universe. If they enjoy the experience, they’ll spend time at Uni’s three other gates too.

Perhaps. Unfortunately the public will never have a clear picture of the impact on Disney. I don't foresee that there will be an immediate drop in Disney attendance and hotel occupancy beginning with the the Epic Universe opening. Disney may be "hurt" in the sense that they're forced to discount tickets or rooms to maximize attendance. I don't think they'll counter by investing $4-5 billion in an entirely new park, but some large expansion to one of the existing parks may be warranted.

Some will try to spin such things as doom and gloom but all of the above stand to benefit Disney guests. Competition is good. There's an undeniable link between an endless parade of new attractions + lands, and ever-rising admission prices.

 

[Lumee23]

I don't think Disney has to do a 5th gate and I also doubt it would happen with this leadership; however, I think Disney could greatly benefit from a more thrill based theme park for the tween and up group. I've heard several people float around a Villains theme park and I think that is a fantastic idea. Personally I do not think a small land expansion with what seems to be a standard two rides will be enough of a counter to Epic Universe for them to not lose some market share. I am looking forward to whatever additions they do add in response though. A strong Universal is a great thing for consumers.

Overall Universal will certainly not be a Disney killer but as someone else said; how much market share are they willing to lose? I can only speak for me and my family, but Universal will be taking some of our Disney dollars. I grew up on Nintendo and the Donkey Kong coaster with the illusion of the mine jumps just like the game sounds amazing. My girls are getting older and are already into Nintendo franchises and now starting to get into Harry Potter so the draw is increasing for my family. We won't stop going to Disney but we will split time or alternate.

Right now Disney seems to be riding high on the 50th, delayed travel due to the pandemic, etc. Will that continue into 2025 with everything going on? Personally I don't think so but I am regularly shocked by things that sell out at Disney (especially lately) so I clearly don't have a good sense on these things.

So while I would love a 5th gate especially if it had a DVC resort adjacent, I just don't see them doing it at least anytime soon. I would be surprised if there will be any "new" WDW DVC for a while at all. I think we are more likely to see additional hotel flips like VGF or expansion of existing DVC like a Poly 2 in order to minimize investment costs for quick short term gains, especially after what seems to be a very successful VGF2 release.

 

[Paul Stupin]

My wife and I were riding the bus between Animal Kingdom and Contemporary last night discussing how Disney blew the opportunity to have the Harry Potter franchise. HP created huge attendance figures for Universal, which was struggling. Universal did great things with the franchise over the last 10 years. Had Disney obtained the HP license, they probably would have put it over in HS, instead of the Star Wars attractions. But, they could also have made Star Wars a fifth gate, or even HP a fifth gate. With Disney money, that was possible.

Instead, Universal has become more than a two day amusement park (which is how I thought of it pre-HP). The last time I was there, I attended a concert, and rode virtually every ride in both parks (and the better ones 2-3 times each), all in 3 days (I stayed at one of their deluxe hotels, so I could skip the lines). Universal was like HS for me...visit for a couple of days, ride the rides, see a show or two, and then move on to another park. Is there a Universal equivalent to Epcot's World Showcase, the animals at Animal Kingdom, or even the sheer number of rides for all ages at MK? No. Will I go to Universal again? Sure, but only for a few days.

But you might extend your visit to Uni by an extra day or two if Epic Universe is indeed epic, and shave off some time from WDW if a three-four day Uni hotel/tickets package is just too good to pass up. That kind of shift in visitor behavior can wind up costing Disney a ton of money.
Disney passed on Harry Potter because they weren’t willing to share profits with JK Rowling, and give her approval over all merchandise, food and beverage, and attraction/land design. Those were big asks, but in retrospect they should have done it. Universal hit it out of the ballpark with what they did, and there’s also no guarantee that Disney’s ideas for bringing the franchise to life would have been anywhere near as good. I think they were going to be much tamer and smaller scale. It was only after Uni’s success with Harry Potter that Disney realized the only way to compete was to build huge, equally immersive lands like Cars Land, Pandora and Galaxy’s Edge. They’re all great, but they owe their existence to the Wizarding World in Islands Of Adventure.

 

[skippytx]

Starting to see investors predict impact from universals third gate and that Disney will have to respond with a fifth gate

if Disney is forced to build a new park I think dvc would want to reserve their capital to build new resorts at said new park

this has me predicting that there will be no new dvc resorts until a fifth park is built and until then only hotel room conversions like gfv

as to location seems like only logical place for the new gate would be between hollywood and animal kingdom

A 5th gate isn't going to happen anytime soon, if ever. They will probably, and should, keep expanding their existing parks instead of a 5th gate.

A 5th gate would simply cost too much to build.

Animal Kingdom cost somewhere between 900 Million and 1 Billion dollars to build, and that was pre Avatar. The Pandora area is estimated to have cost another 400M to 500M to build out. AK opened in 1998. We can guess that it would cost double that to build AK in 2022.

Shanghai Disney has been estimated to cost about 5.5 Billion to build out, so I think it's fair to estimate that a 5th gate would cost Disney somewhere in the area of 2.5 to 3 Billion dollars to build right now. Shanghai Disney is much larger than a 5th gate would be so it's not apples to apples, but it can help shape an estimate.

You can also get into all the issues that comes along with building a 5th gate. Traffic, Staffing, logistics, and everything else, but I believe the #1 issue is how much it would cost to build, and I don't think it's necessary. They should focus on building out the existing gates a little more.


DVC is going to keep building resorts and selling points as long as they can get people to buy into the program. I figure they're making about 600 Million on Riviera gross... I recall looking it up and Riv cost about 400M to build and they're selling a little over 1 Billion dollars worth of points when it's all said and done. Not a bad return at all. The margins on converting the hotel rooms to GFV have got to be even better. They're going to make a killing on DLT when it comes out.

2. Ride sharing along with Universal adding Harry Potter assisted in killing Magical Express. As much as Iger/Chapek are maligned, I don't think they woke up one morning and said, let's kill off DME. I think they woke up and said, let's look into whether DME is still providing benefits that exceed the costs. They have access to data that we cannot even fathom.

1000% agree. I think it was just ride sharing that killed DME, but I see the argument that Universal had some part of it as well. It used to be worth say 100 dollars a family to provide the DME service, because you locked them into the Disney bubble for the entire trip and they spent more money on food, drinks, etc. Now that it's way easier to get off property, it doesn't make sense to spend the money from a financial standpoint. I think looking at just the financial aspect though is foolish and shortsighted. The "Mickey Bus" was a powerful draw for my kids, they loved it and it was an good first experience to the beginning of a "magical" trip.

 

[Paul Stupin]

A 5th gate isn't going to happen anytime soon, if ever. They will probably, and should, keep expanding their existing parks instead of a 5th gate.

A 5th gate would simply cost too much to build.

Animal Kingdom cost somewhere between 900 Million and 1 Billion dollars to build, and that was pre Avatar. The Pandora area is estimated to have cost another 400M to 500M to build out. AK opened in 1998. We can guess that it would cost double that to build AK in 2022.

Shanghai Disney has been estimated to cost about 5.5 Billion to build out, so I think it's fair to estimate that a 5th gate would cost Disney somewhere in the area of 2.5 to 3 Billion dollars to build right now. Shanghai Disney is much larger than a 5th gate would be so it's not apples to apples, but it can help shape an estimate.

You can also get into all the issues that comes along with building a 5th gate. Traffic, Staffing, logistics, and everything else, but I believe the #1 issue is how much it would cost to build, and I don't think it's necessary. They should focus on building out the existing gates a little more.


DVC is going to keep building resorts and selling points as long as they can get people to buy into the program. I figure they're making about 600 Million on Riviera gross... I recall looking it up and Riv cost about 400M to build and they're selling a little over 1 Billion dollars worth of points when it's all said and done. Not a bad return at all. The margins on converting the hotel rooms to GFV have got to be even better. They're going to make a killing on DLT when it comes out.




1000% agree. I think it was just ride sharing that killed DME, but I see the argument that Universal had some part of it as well. It used to be worth say 100 dollars a family to provide the DME service, because you locked them into the Disney bubble for the entire trip and they spent more money on food, drinks, etc. Now that it's way easier to get off property, it doesn't make sense to spend the money from a financial standpoint. I think looking at just the financial aspect though is foolish and shortsighted. The "Mickey Bus" was a powerful draw for my kids, they loved it and it was an good first experience to the beginning of a "magical" trip.

Agreed. A 5th gate isn't going to happen soon, if ever. And I think its unrealistic to believe that Disney won't be affected by the addition of a billion dollar+ brand new Universal theme park. Its going to be amazing. Its not going to drive them out of business, but I would think a good percentage of Disney's guests might want to experience it, and when they are, they won't be spending money at WDW.

 

[tjkraz]

Agreed. A 5th gate isn't going to happen soon, if ever. And I think its unrealistic to believe that Disney won't be affected by the addition of a billion dollar+ brand new Universal theme park. Its going to be amazing. Its not going to drive them out of business, but I would think a good percentage of Disney's guests might want to experience it, and when they are, they won't be spending money at WDW.

Again, there's an additive element to either park drawing new guests into town.

In 2015--just to pick a year in which USO saw its attendance increase by a noteworthy amount--Universal added 1.98 million guests (from 16.4 in 2014 to 18.38 in 2015). Meanwhile that same year Disney added 2.55 million across its four Florida parks.

Is it fair to conclude that Universal took business away from Disney when they both saw gains?

We can spend forever-and-a-day lamenting the fact that Disney didn't secure Harry Potter, but that's water under the bridge. Yes, USF has seen impressive gains since adding HP (and Simpsons, Minions, Transformers, Fast & Furious, etc.) But they also stagnated (relatively speaking) in other years when Disney grew. In 2018, the WDW parks added 2.44 million guests while USF rose only 750k.

I will concede that there's a greater risk Universal becomes a full-trip resort complex, with Disney seeing reduced admissions from people staying at Universal hotels and frequenting their parks. But a 5th WDW theme park isn't going to solve that problem.

A Disney 5th park also isn't going to keep people from running over to Epic Universe for a day. Another Disney park doesn't make people not want to see Harry Potter or Nintendo. And there's only so much IP Disney can cram into their own parks.

Still that doesn't mean people primarily vacationing at WDW will now give USF 3 days of their vacation instead of 2. Many will take a "non Disney day" that was previously earmarked for US or IOA and spend it at the new park. Others will come to Orlando for the first time to ride Mario Kart and Gringotts, and make time for Rise of the Resistance and GOTG.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Again, there's an additive element to either park drawing new guests into town.

In 2015--just to pick a year in which USO saw its attendance increase by a noteworthy amount--Universal added 1.98 million guests (from 16.4 in 2014 to 18.38 in 2015). Meanwhile that same year Disney added 2.55 million across its four Florida parks.

Is it fair to conclude that Universal took business away from Disney when they both saw gains?

We can spend forever-and-a-day lamenting the fact that Disney didn't secure Harry Potter, but that's water under the bridge. Yes, USF has seen impressive gains since adding HP (and Simpsons, Minions, Transformers, Fast & Furious, etc.) But they also stagnated (relatively speaking) in other years when Disney grew. In 2018, the WDW parks added 2.44 million guests while USF rose only 750k.

I will concede that there's a greater risk Universal becomes a full-trip resort complex, with Disney seeing reduced admissions from people staying at Universal hotels and frequenting their parks. But a 5th WDW theme park isn't going to solve that problem.

A Disney 5th park also isn't going to keep people from running over to Epic Universe for a day. Another Disney park doesn't make people not want to see Harry Potter or Nintendo. And there's only so much IP Disney can cram into their own parks.

Still that doesn't mean people primarily vacationing at WDW will now give USF 3 days of their vacation instead of 2. Many will take a "non Disney day" that was previously earmarked for US or IOA and spend it at the new park. Others will come to Orlando for the first time to ride Mario Kart and Gringotts, and make time for Rise of the Resistance and GOTG.

I‘m a Disney fan, but I’m certainly not lamenting the fact that they didn’t secure Harry Potter. I don’t think their vision was anywhere near the size, scale, and interactivity of Universal’s.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Hot takes - all assume sane crowd levels;
MK is a 1.5 day park.
DHS is a full day park IF you really like Star Wars, otherwise it's a 1/2 day park - it was built to keep people from going to Universal
EPCOT is a 1/2 day park plus a nice place to eat dinner - it was in Walt's plan so it happened
DAK is a 1/2 day park - it was built to keep people from going to Busch Gardens
Until all 4 parks are at least full day parks and/or Universal (or someone else) threatens Disney by providing something that they cannot compete with by adding to one of the existing parks, there will be no 5th gate.

 

[bianca]

Interesting thought. What if universal builds timeshares within walking distance to epic universe.

Could that start to swing things even more for universal

I’ve actually been looking forward to them (hoping) making just such an announcement! Our family would buy in a heartbeat!

 

[sethschroeder]

will universal take market share. I think that is 100% certainty

Thing is Disney needs less guests that pay more money in their eyes. So reducing attendance will give them further reasons to make their offering premium/luxury spending.

if epic universe can better match the Disney vibe then Disney is in real trouble in my view

Show me one thing that has you thinking they match Disney's vibe though? Yes they did a great job with HP but what other franchise do they have that appeals to a broad audience? Mario is okay (coming from a video gamer). Disney owns SOOOOO much IP what are they putting in to Epic?

 

[Paul Stupin]

Thing is Disney needs less guests that pay more money in their eyes. So reducing attendance will give them further reasons to make their offering premium/luxury spending.



Show me one thing that has you thinking they match Disney's vibe though? Yes they did a great job with HP but what other franchise do they have that appeals to a broad audience? Mario is okay (coming from a video gamer). Disney owns SOOOOO much IP what are they putting in to Epic?

Oh, I think Universal has quite a few franchises that appeal to broad audiences: Despicable Me, Dr. Seuss, Marvel, Jurassic Park, The Simpsons, Transformers, Classic Monsters, How To Train Your Dragon, the list really does go on and on. Again, I’m a fan of both, but Universal’s are a bit more contemporary, while Disney’s are more classic and beloved, but older. Both can make for beautiful, exciting and immersive theme parks.

 

[sethschroeder]

Oh, I think Universal has quite a few franchises that appeal to broad audiences: Despicable Me, Dr. Seuss, Marvel, Jurassic Park, The Simpsons, Transformers, Classic Monsters, How To Train Your Dragon, the list really does go on and on. Again, I’m a fan of both, but Universal’s are a bit more contemporary, while Disney’s are more classic and beloved, but older. Both can make for beautiful, exciting and immersive theme parks.

Simpsons are owned by Fox and contract expires in 2028.

Marvel is Flordia only and makes Disney more money so Disney likely would love that.

Jurassic Park, Monsters, and Transformers are more limited when it comes to lands.

How to train your dragon is a possibility.

So we have one IP and an IP owned by Disney allowed in Universal Theme Parks.

Also out of your list they have a Jurassic Park area and a Marvel area already in the parks as well.

Maybe they can buy the rights to Hotel Transylvania from Sony and combine it with their classic monsters but cartoonized.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Simpsons are owned by Fox and contract expires in 2028.

Marvel is Flordia only and makes Disney more money so Disney likely would love that.

Jurassic Park, Monsters, and Transformers are more limited when it comes to lands.

How to train your dragon is a possibility.

So we have one IP and an IP owned by Disney allowed in Universal Theme Parks.

Also out of your list they have a Jurassic Park area and a Marvel area already in the parks as well.

Maybe they can buy the rights to Hotel Transylvania from Sony and combine it with their classic monsters but cartoonized.

Those aren’t all going to be in Epic Universe, they’re just a sample of some Universal IP. The Epic Universe lands are Super Nintendo World, How To Train Your Dragon, Universal Monsters, Wizarding World, and a huge central hub with additional rides, including an outer space themed dueling roller coaster. It’s going to have a different look and feel than a Disney park, but it‘s going to be good. Take a look at the renderings online. Hard not to get excited.

 

[Jimmy Mouse]

Disney building a 5th gate? Nope, not in any of our lifetimes. Universal will build Epic Universe in less time than it's taking WDW to build Tron. A single ride which they already have the designs for. All of us DVC owners will be long gone before it ever happens. Even if they break ground tomorrow.

 

[nuhusky123]

Those aren’t all going to be in Epic Universe, they’re just a sample of some Universal IP. The Epic Universe lands are Super Nintendo World, How To Train Your Dragon, Universal Monsters, Wizarding World, and a huge central hub with additional rides, including an outer space themed dueling roller coaster. It’s going to have a different look and feel than a Disney park, but it‘s going to be good. Take a look at the renderings online. Hard not to get excited.

If someone isn’t excited about the lineup in epic universe they most likely lack a pulse

epic universe in my view will directly appeal to the typical Disney family, more so than the other two universal parks

 

[RivShore]

If someone isn’t excited about the lineup in epic universe they most likely lack a pulse

epic universe in my view will directly appeal to the typical Disney family, more so than the other two universal parks

Agreed but couldn't the same have been said about HP? And that did not but any kind of noticeable dent in WDW's attendance. Maybe this one will since it's a full land but history shows their attendance is more correlated than taking from one or the other.

 

[Sandisw]

If someone isn’t excited about the lineup in epic universe they most likely lack a pulse

epic universe in my view will directly appeal to the typical Disney family, more so than the other two universal parks

Honestly, none of that appeals to me and most not to my family either in the same way that Disney does. Now, I think it may add another place for families visiting the Orlando area for the first time to add to their trip, along with Disney, but I have not seen anything yet that makes us feel like OMG...this is a must do!

We shall see!

 

[nuhusky123]

Honestly, none of that appeals to me and most not to my family either in the same way that Disney does. Now, I think it may add another place for families visiting the Orlando area for the first time to add to their trip, along with Disney, but I have not seen anything yet that makes us feel like OMG...this is a must do!

We shall see!

I was going to fly to Osaka just for Mario world, now it’s going to be in Orlando.

the ip tie in for epic universe is stronger than any ride at mk

 

[AvidDisReader]

Really I do not see a need for a fifth gate, but complete some of the existing lands. Pandora could use at least one more attraction, possibly 2. Same goes for Star Wars land and Toy Story land. How about Epcot finally getting a new country. So much potential in the existing parks that can and should be utilized.