2026 Dues Predictions and Questions

[airjay75]

I feel that the Riviera dues are expensive considering that is a tower hotel and newer...Compared to Bay Lake (older and with similar structure) its 1USD difference. Do any of you know the reason? I thought about the skyliner cost but BLT has the cost for the monorail as well so im not sure...

I don't know the answer to this, but another part of the data I find interesting looking at BLT vs. RIV are the comparative compounded annual growth rates (CAGRs) for the last 5 years as well as the CAGRs for BLT in its first full 5 years vs. RIV in its first full 5 years.

From 2020-2025, RIV went from $8.31 to $9.06 - the calculator I'm using gives that a CAGR of 1.74%.

From 2020-2025, BLT went from $6.58 to $8.02 - CAGR of 4.04%
From 2010-2015, BLT went from $3.78 to $5.50 - CAGR of 5.96%

So, whether it was BLT's first 5 years or their last 5 years, the growth rate in dues seems to be far surpassing RIV's. If that trend were to continue, BLT would eventually surpass RIV. But, who knows whether these trends will continue.

Of course, others have noted that it seems like DVC has changed strategies with newer resorts, and started with higher dues and lower year over year increases. I imagine there is a fair amount of discretion that goes into operating reserve calculations and the assumptions DVC decides to bake into their calculations.

 

[eticketplease]

I thought about the skyliner cost but BLT has the cost for the monorail as well so im not sure...

Is the Skyliner not more expensive to run and maintain? It is taken down every January for maintenance and I don’t believe the monorail has to be taken down for maintenance. The skyliner certainly has more cars/gondolas

 

[atthebeachclub]

I don't know the answer to this, but another part of the data I find interesting looking at BLT vs. RIV are the comparative compounded annual growth rates (CAGRs) for the last 5 years as well as the CAGRs for BLT in its first full 5 years vs. RIV in its first full 5 years.

From 2020-2025, RIV went from $8.31 to $9.06 - the calculator I'm using gives that a CAGR of 1.74%.

From 2020-2025, BLT went from $6.58 to $8.02 - CAGR of 4.04%
From 2010-2015, BLT went from $3.78 to $5.50 - CAGR of 5.96%

So, whether it was BLT's first 5 years or their last 5 years, the growth rate in dues seems to be far surpassing RIV's. If that trend were to continue, BLT would eventually surpass RIV. But, who knows whether these trends will continue.

Of course, others have noted that it seems like DVC has changed strategies with newer resorts, and started with higher dues and lower year over year increases. I imagine there is a fair amount of discretion that goes into operating reserve calculations and the assumptions DVC decides to bake into their calculations.

This probably is somewhat reflective of the Aulani dues debacle that occurred two years after BLT opened. DVC used to underprice dues for new resorts and they did so too much at Aulani…hence the subsized dues. https://archive.nytimes.com/mediade...ation-resort-in-hawaii-faces-possible-losses/

More here… https://www.disboards.com/threads/whatever-happened-to-jim-lewis.2986971/

 

[PlutoNotPlanet]

Thinking about how much less effort to maintain condos vs. townhouses vs. single family homes, then factoring in the total amount of points per resort (how many owners sharing the total cost), age of the resorts, and upcoming refurb, I believe the monorail resorts will stay in the lower band.

 

[walt34]

Is the Skyliner not more expensive to run and maintain? It is taken down every January for maintenance and I don’t believe the monorail has to be taken down for maintenance. The skyliner certainly has more cars/gondolas

The skyliner is a Doppelmayr/CWA gondola system that's in use in ski resorts all over the world. So replacement parts and trained personnel for maintenance are readily available. The monorail is nearly one of its kind, many manufacturers of components have disappeared so Disney has to make their own parts or find new sources. And the monorail is getting old. I'd be very surprised if maintaining the monorail is cheaper than the Skyliner.

 

[Mouseforward]

The monorail is nearly one of its kind, many manufacturers of components have disappeared so Disney has to make their own parts or find new sources.

There are tons of monorails, it is not even the only one in Florida.

 

[walt34]

There are tons of monorails, it is not even the only one in Florida.

Tons? There are seven in the US. Most of them are different systems. The current generation of WDW monorail trains is from 1989. Bombardier doesn’t build those anymore. The last train Disney put into service in 2011 was built from undamaged cars from the monorail crash.

 

[MICKIMINI]

We always get slammed at OKW since it is such a big resort with so many buildings! Just the cost of having fun I guess! I don't lose any sleep on it anymore...

 

[Brian Noble]

others have noted that it seems like DVC has changed strategies with newer resorts, and started with higher dues and lower year over year increases. I imagine there is a fair amount of discretion that goes into operating reserve calculations and the assumptions DVC decides to bake into their calculations.

This probably is somewhat reflective of the Aulani dues debacle that occurred two years after BLT opened.

Yeah, this. Heads rolled (including some executives) when this happened. They've been extremely conservative in original estimations since then.

 

[Sandisw]

I feel that the Riviera dues are expensive considering that is a tower hotel and newer...Compared to Bay Lake (older and with similar structure) its 1USD difference. Do any of you know the reason? I thought about the skyliner cost but BLT has the cost for the monorail as well so im not sure...

With BLT, it shares expenses for things like the monorail with the CR since it’s a shared resort.

RIV is all DVC so that might play a role. I haven’t compared though that closely.

RIV doesn’t share buses and has two pools where BLT has one.

It certainly seems that RIV has a lot more cast members in the lobby, front desk, and bell services than BLT.

 

[havoc315]

I might post another thread about this, but remember that point charts strongly influence dues.
That is -- picture it this way, there is a maintenance cost of $100 for a studio for 1 week.
If that studio is 10 points for the week, then the dues will be $10 per point.
If that studio is 8 points for the week, then the dues will be $12.50.

Fort Wilderness dues are so high, largely because the point charts are so low. The maintenance cost of a cabin certainly isn't lower than a traditional one bedroom villa, but it's a LOT less points.
A standard view 1BR at BLT is 233 points for a week in July. A FW Cabin is 148 points. So if the maintenance cost of a BLT 1 BR is the same as a FW cabin, then the dues of the FW Cabin MUST be about 50% higher. And that's almost exactly what we see.. About $8 per point at BLT. $12 at FW.

Someone above asked "Why is Riviera so expensive?"
It's really about the same as Polynesian and Grand Floridian, when you balance out the point chart:
Riviera dues are 14% higher than Poly and Grand Floridian.

1 week 1 BR at GF: 301. At Riveria -- 276
So a 1 BR is 9% more expensive than Riveria.

So on a per room room basis, RIveria is actually only slightly more than Grand Floridian. (this may balance out over time. Or possibly, Grand Floridian gets a slightly discount due to sharing amenities with the "regular" hotel).

Yes, there are other factors: AKV has the extra charges of the safari, for example. There are different transportation costs associated with different resorts too.

But the difference is point charts is probably the biggest factor, and people are rarely considering it. 2 WDW resorts with the highest dues -- Fort Wilderness Cabins, Old Key West, -- No coincidence that they also have the most favorable point charts.

 

[havoc315]

With BLT, it shares expenses for things like the monorail with the CR since it’s a shared resort.

RIV is all DVC so that might play a role. I haven’t compared though that closely.

RIV doesn’t share buses and has two pools where BLT has one.

It certainly seems that RIV has a lot more cast members in the lobby, front desk, and bell services than BLT.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the gap close, BLT jumped 5.60% last year, compared to RIV's 2.33% increased.

If that happens again: Then BLT would be $8.46 and RIV would be $9.26, closing the gap to $0.80

 

[VGCgroupie]

I might post another thread about this, but remember that point charts strongly influence dues.
That is -- picture it this way, there is a maintenance cost of $100 for a studio for 1 week.
If that studio is 10 points for the week, then the dues will be $10 per point.
If that studio is 8 points for the week, then the dues will be $12.50.

Fort Wilderness dues are so high, largely because the point charts are so low. The maintenance cost of a cabin certainly isn't lower than a traditional one bedroom villa, but it's a LOT less points.
A standard view 1BR at BLT is 233 points for a week in July. A FW Cabin is 148 points. So if the maintenance cost of a BLT 1 BR is the same as a FW cabin, then the dues of the FW Cabin MUST be about 50% higher. And that's almost exactly what we see.. About $8 per point at BLT. $12 at FW.

Someone above asked "Why is Riviera so expensive?"
It's really about the same as Polynesian and Grand Floridian, when you balance out the point chart:
Riviera dues are 14% higher than Poly and Grand Floridian.

1 week 1 BR at GF: 301. At Riveria -- 276
So a 1 BR is 9% more expensive than Riveria.

So on a per room room basis, RIveria is actually only slightly more than Grand Floridian. (this may balance out over time. Or possibly, Grand Floridian gets a slightly discount due to sharing amenities with the "regular" hotel).

Yes, there are other factors: AKV has the extra charges of the safari, for example. There are different transportation costs associated with different resorts too.

But the difference is point charts is probably the biggest factor, and people are rarely considering it. 2 WDW resorts with the highest dues -- Fort Wilderness Cabins, Old Key West, -- No coincidence that they also have the most favorable point charts.

CCV, BRV, BWV, BCV, SSR all have great point charts and pretty great dues. BLT point chart is great if you are in resort view category and very low dues. Im not sure I am going to agree with this take at all.

 

[Sandisw]

CCV, BRV, BWV, BCV, SSR all have great point charts and pretty great dues. BLT point chart is great if you are in resort view category and very low dues. Im not sure I am going to agree with this take at all.

Remember though that the point charts for those resorts were determined based on cash rates at the time.

So, that does play a role too.