2026 Dues Predictions and Questions

[airjay75]

I feel that the Riviera dues are expensive considering that is a tower hotel and newer...Compared to Bay Lake (older and with similar structure) its 1USD difference. Do any of you know the reason? I thought about the skyliner cost but BLT has the cost for the monorail as well so im not sure...

I don't know the answer to this, but another part of the data I find interesting looking at BLT vs. RIV are the comparative compounded annual growth rates (CAGRs) for the last 5 years as well as the CAGRs for BLT in its first full 5 years vs. RIV in its first full 5 years.

From 2020-2025, RIV went from $8.31 to $9.06 - the calculator I'm using gives that a CAGR of 1.74%.

From 2020-2025, BLT went from $6.58 to $8.02 - CAGR of 4.04%
From 2010-2015, BLT went from $3.78 to $5.50 - CAGR of 5.96%

So, whether it was BLT's first 5 years or their last 5 years, the growth rate in dues seems to be far surpassing RIV's. If that trend were to continue, BLT would eventually surpass RIV. But, who knows whether these trends will continue.

Of course, others have noted that it seems like DVC has changed strategies with newer resorts, and started with higher dues and lower year over year increases. I imagine there is a fair amount of discretion that goes into operating reserve calculations and the assumptions DVC decides to bake into their calculations.

 

[eticketplease]

I thought about the skyliner cost but BLT has the cost for the monorail as well so im not sure...

Is the Skyliner not more expensive to run and maintain? It is taken down every January for maintenance and I don’t believe the monorail has to be taken down for maintenance. The skyliner certainly has more cars/gondolas

 

[atthebeachclub]

I don't know the answer to this, but another part of the data I find interesting looking at BLT vs. RIV are the comparative compounded annual growth rates (CAGRs) for the last 5 years as well as the CAGRs for BLT in its first full 5 years vs. RIV in its first full 5 years.

From 2020-2025, RIV went from $8.31 to $9.06 - the calculator I'm using gives that a CAGR of 1.74%.

From 2020-2025, BLT went from $6.58 to $8.02 - CAGR of 4.04%
From 2010-2015, BLT went from $3.78 to $5.50 - CAGR of 5.96%

So, whether it was BLT's first 5 years or their last 5 years, the growth rate in dues seems to be far surpassing RIV's. If that trend were to continue, BLT would eventually surpass RIV. But, who knows whether these trends will continue.

Of course, others have noted that it seems like DVC has changed strategies with newer resorts, and started with higher dues and lower year over year increases. I imagine there is a fair amount of discretion that goes into operating reserve calculations and the assumptions DVC decides to bake into their calculations.

This probably is somewhat reflective of the Aulani dues debacle that occurred two years after BLT opened. DVC used to underprice dues for new resorts and they did so too much at Aulani…hence the subsized dues. https://archive.nytimes.com/mediade...ation-resort-in-hawaii-faces-possible-losses/

More here… https://www.disboards.com/threads/whatever-happened-to-jim-lewis.2986971/

 

[PlutoNotPlanet]

Thinking about how much less effort to maintain condos vs. townhouses vs. single family homes, then factoring in the total amount of points per resort (how many owners sharing the total cost), age of the resorts, and upcoming refurb, I believe the monorail resorts will stay in the lower band.

 

[walt34]

Is the Skyliner not more expensive to run and maintain? It is taken down every January for maintenance and I don’t believe the monorail has to be taken down for maintenance. The skyliner certainly has more cars/gondolas

The skyliner is a Doppelmayr/CWA gondola system that's in use in ski resorts all over the world. So replacement parts and trained personnel for maintenance are readily available. The monorail is nearly one of its kind, many manufacturers of components have disappeared so Disney has to make their own parts or find new sources. And the monorail is getting old. I'd be very surprised if maintaining the monorail is cheaper than the Skyliner.

 

[Mouseforward]

The monorail is nearly one of its kind, many manufacturers of components have disappeared so Disney has to make their own parts or find new sources.

There are tons of monorails, it is not even the only one in Florida.

 

[walt34]

There are tons of monorails, it is not even the only one in Florida.

Tons? There are seven in the US. Most of them are different systems. The current generation of WDW monorail trains is from 1989. Bombardier doesn’t build those anymore. The last train Disney put into service in 2011 was built from undamaged cars from the monorail crash.

 

[MICKIMINI]

We always get slammed at OKW since it is such a big resort with so many buildings! Just the cost of having fun I guess! I don't lose any sleep on it anymore...

 

[Brian Noble]

others have noted that it seems like DVC has changed strategies with newer resorts, and started with higher dues and lower year over year increases. I imagine there is a fair amount of discretion that goes into operating reserve calculations and the assumptions DVC decides to bake into their calculations.

This probably is somewhat reflective of the Aulani dues debacle that occurred two years after BLT opened.

Yeah, this. Heads rolled (including some executives) when this happened. They've been extremely conservative in original estimations since then.