2025 Dues

[Spivey378]

Is CCV really all that bad?

 

[Brian Noble]

Hospitality pretty much always increases faster than "total inflation" because it generally can't take advantage of increased productivity---it is labor-constrained. ChatGPT can't help housekeeping turn over rooms any faster. But, increases in productivity elsewhere raise the compensation levels in those other segments of the labor market, and that pressure increases wages in labor-constrained markets. This is called Baumol's Cost Disease.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect

 

[jwalker79]

Hospitality pretty much always increases faster than "total inflation" because it generally can't take advantage of increased productivity---it is labor-constrained. ChatGPT can't help housekeeping turn over rooms any faster. But, increases in productivity elsewhere raise the compensation levels in those other segments of the labor market, and that pressure increases wages in labor-constrained markets. This is called Baumol's Cost Disease.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect

This is the content I didn't even know I came here for! Love it - - fascinating and makes total sense.

 

[Brian Noble]

The overall point is valid. Most timeshare developers control the game--lock, stock, and barrel. Most of them have the fig leaf of owners electing the Board of Directors. Disney doesn't even do that. DVC owners cede their voting interest for Board membership.

So, you pretty much have three choices.

1. Assume Disney is trying to sell an honest product at a fair price.
2. Assume Disney is acting only in its self interest, but is still incentivized to provide enough value to justify ownership.
3. Don't buy, and if it is too late for that, sell.

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

Is CCV really all that bad?

No - I guess there was a lot of talk last year about how reasonable CCV’s historical dues increases had been so it just didn’t keep to that trend but comparatively to other resorts not bad.

 

[ehh]

Is CCV really all that bad?

No. Its 4.91% increase is mid-pack at WDW for this year.

OKW, BRV, BCV, SSR, AKV, and BLT had bigger increases.

Just BWV, VGF, and RIV had smaller increases while PVB and CFW both had decreases.

BLT and SSR (both Dues Darlings) have 10YR CAGRs very close to CCV's 4.91% increase this year (4.73% for BLT and 5.14% for SSR). CCV's historical increases were exceptionally low, with a 5YR CAGR of 1.74%.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

No. Its 4.91% increase is mid-pack at WDW for this year.

OKW, BRV, BCV, SSR, AKV, and BLT had bigger increases.

Just BWV, VGF, and RIV had smaller increases while PVB and CFW both had decreases.

BLT and SSR (both Dues Darlings) have 10YR CAGRs very close to CCV's 4.91% increase this year (4.73% for BLT and 5.14% for SSR). CCV's historical increases were exceptionally low, with a 5YR CAGR of 1.74%.

Dues Darlings is FANTASTIC. Excellent moniker

 

[WB1971]

A sobering reminder that 1 Bedroom stays are really unaffordable.

 

[Cfabar1]

A sobering reminder that 1 Bedroom stays are really unaffordable.

how do you mean?

 

[ehh]

Made some charts with 5YR CAGR.

Sorted by 2025 dues:

Sorted by 5YR CAGR:

 

[mkatsy]

The scary picture is dues vs rental rates. If you can’t rent your points to cover dues then the value of the points is 0 or negative. This is what VB is going to hit very soon if not this year.

Point rental rates have not gone up in recent years, and MFs have - so the value of the DVC contract is declining.

Some prefer to look at savings vs cash rate but if they are not filling the cash rooms then that is a false metric.

I feel like they are rapidly expanding DVC to hide that they are having an issue with the cost of staffing and maintenance on the hotels vs what the public will pay.

Maybe the commercial renters will begin to die a death of starvation if they can’t cover their costs on those mega contracts

 

[Cfabar1]

interesting to see bcv a whole percent higher than bwv

 

[SL6827]

The scary picture is dues vs rental rates. If you can’t rent your points to cover dues then the value of the points is 0 or negative. This is what VB is going to hit very soon if not this year.

Point rental rates have not gone up in recent years, and MFs have - so the value of the DVC contract is declining.

Some prefer to look at savings vs cash rate but if they are not filling the cash rooms then that is a false metric.

I feel like they are rapidly expanding DVC to hide that they are having an issue with the cost of staffing and maintenance on the hotels vs what the public will pay.

This. I have been saying that my gut feeling is that Disney is looking to get out of the hotel industry side of the business. They see a ceiling coming.

 

[Chili327]

The scary picture is dues vs rental rates. If you can’t rent your points to cover dues then the value of the points is 0 or negative. This is what VB is going to hit very soon if not this year.

Point rental rates have not gone up in recent years, and MFs have - so the value of the DVC contract is declining.

Some prefer to look at savings vs cash rate but if they are not filling the cash rooms then that is a false metric.

I feel like they are rapidly expanding DVC to hide that they are having an issue with the cost of staffing and maintenance on the hotels vs what the public will pay.

Are they not filling cash rooms?

This. I have been saying that my gut feeling is that Disney is looking to get out of the hotel industry side of the business. They see a ceiling coming.

You mean too many hotels or customers not coming as much?

I’m not sure I see things slowing down at all, except maybe if they are trying to price people out to keep the lines reasonable, which means less people, but paying more?

 

[SL6827]

Are they not filling cash rooms?



You mean too many hotels or customers not coming as much?

I’m not sure I see things slowing down at all, except maybe if they are trying to price people out to keep the lines reasonable, which means less people, but paying more?

They are filling cash rooms. But they have a lot less Deluxe cash rooms now than before. Why? Converting those to DVC, because they could not fill them. I wonder when the moderate resorts get to that same point, will they convert them as well to DVC.

 

[ChipTheRescueRanger]

They are filling cash rooms. But they have a lot less Deluxe cash rooms now than before. Why? Converting those to DVC, because they could not fill them. I wonder when the moderate resorts get to that same point, will they convert them as well to DVC.

I cant see them converting moderates. Some rooms sell out stupidly quick as soon as the offer is on. esp at Caribbean beach.

The cash price of Deluxes has got so high I think they are pricing themselves out. Esp as more people know about renting points now.

 

[eticketplease]

interesting to see bcv a whole percent higher than bwv

BCV only has just over 3 million points vs almost 5 million points for BWV. I am pretty sure that is the reason as they can spread the costs out a little more at BWV.

 

[Lorana]

I cant see them converting moderates. Some rooms sell out stupidly quick as soon as the offer is on. esp at Caribbean beach.

The cash price of Deluxes has got so high I think they are pricing themselves out. Esp as more people know about renting points now.

With putting Moderate and Value resorts on the Skyliner they may have shot themselves in the foot with pushing people to Deluxe hotels. Honestly, I see them opening up Lightning Lane passes to all hotels as an immediate money grab instead of a strategy designed to really get people to spend more and stay at their deluxe hotels, and so making deluxe DVC is better. Every will still have their points to use to sell “cash” rooms.

To be super clear, I am glad moderate and value resorts are on the Skyliner and I’m glad LL Passes are opening up to everyone. I am NOT however a fan of LL Passes at their current pricing. Walt’s dream was a place where all families of all incomes could come and enjoy, and Disney has gotten greedy and is definitely catering more and more to those with money.

I have lots and lots of found memories of taking my young children to Disney World when they littles, but we could never have done it at today’s prices. This was when we could pay $49 a night for Value rooms or $79 for Moderate and $400 for Annual Passes or $200 or less for tickets. We bought into DVC because we wanted to keep coming to Disney but felt we were being priced out. Yes, yes, yes, I get that DVC was a big upfront investment, but our circumstances had changed, and honestly even with deals if I had to pay current hotel and ticket prices, we’d rarely go back. With DVC and Sorcerers Pass, we take smaller more frequent trips (and do other places for our big annual family trips), which is what we wanted and allows us our little bit of joy.

 

[SL6827]

I cant see them converting moderates. Some rooms sell out stupidly quick as soon as the offer is on. esp at Caribbean beach.

The cash price of Deluxes has got so high I think they are pricing themselves out. Esp as more people know about renting points now.

I couldn't either, until they did the cabins.

 

[Lorana]

Made some charts with 5YR CAGR.

Sorted by 2025 dues:

Sorted by 5YR CAGR:

I am grateful for my PVB points this year, even if they are a small amount, and 4 of my resorts are the top 4 of 5yr CAGR. Helps offset the sadness of my AKV and VGC.

Especially AKV. Ouch on that increase this year. Probably means they’ll hit $10 next year, and I have 510 points there. Sigh. But I love my AKV.

I definitely do worry about affording my Dues in 10+ years, as my salary is definitely not increasing at the same pace…