2020 Point Charts

[KAT4DISNEY]

No difference to purchasing a house and ringing Miele to ask for an instructional booklet of the oven, which the seller didn't furnish you with. The standard line is going to be: ask your broker/the seller.

It's far simpler to ask for a full information packet including the POS, posing as a prospective buyer. One was provided for us on request without hesitation, at a dvc tour.

This isn't really an instruction booklet - and Miele would say to get it online.

This is a legal document that explains legal aspects of ownership. I'm very surprised they do not believe they need to furnish it upon request from an existing owner no matter how they purchased. This is what I call "Bad Show Disney".

 

[nkosiek]

Forgetting the legality of this for a moment, most of this comes down to what they've built, point charts, and cost per point over the last decade. They have gotten to the point where most people can only afford to buy 100-200 points at these resorts, which in most cases is enough for a studio for a week. We've all seen the complaints from people at VGF, CCV, etc about how hard it is to book their home resorts' studios. If you read the one interpretation that DVCMC is REQUIRED (I don't read it that way, more that they could) to reallocate based on demand, then it only makes sense to up those studios so more owners actually have an opportunity to use those points. Let's be honest, I'm sure DVCMC has heard plenty over the past 5-7 years about how owners weren't able to utilize their points at their home resort, well now they will be able to because other owners who were getting in for 7 days can now only go for. Over the course of a year, that should mean that 52 more owners (if everyone is now going for 6 days) can book into that resort. Yes, I realize that's over-simplifying things, but it works out.

Is that good for members? I don't know. As someone who was able to afford to purchase 160 to use on a studio for my wife and I, we going to go from getting an 8 day vacation at BLT during the summer to 7 days. That personally sucks for us. Will it be better if more BLT owners get to utlize BLT? I suppose BUT I haven't heard anything from fellow BLT people (and I actually know some personally) that they were having problems getting into BLT when they wanted. If my anecdotal evidence rungs true then I can't see how spiking point costs in Studios and 1-BRs at BLT is good for members.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

I asked a copy via email and they replied:

I have checked with our compliance department and they informed me that these documents and information has to be obtained by your broker. This is not something we can provide. Please reach out to your broker to receive more information regarding your request.

So I have replied quoting your post about how the Florida law assigns to DVCMC the task of granting access to members to all public acts of the MC. The reply was the same:

I have confirmed again with our Compliance Office that the Public Offering Statement is provided by the Seller and/or Seller's Agent.


They also should communicate to all members when they update the POS via direct communication or via any of the official DVC channell like a newsletter. This is in the POS itself.

I plan on asking about this on Saturday to the CM with whom I have an appointment for a phone call.

You can get many of these documents from the Orange County Comptroller’s website.

Do a records search. Use Disney Vacation Development Inc as Grantor
Uncheck All Documents. Select "Condo Related"

You can see Copper Creek at Document # 20170096685.
If you leave document # blank, you will see all resorts back to OKW.

It is not clear to me if DVD has to file amendments with Orange County, or if these are only the original documents.

 

[freediverdude]

That was I was thinking, that the "Public Offering Statement" has to be kind of a public record, lol.

 

[zavandor]

That was I was thinking, that the "Public Offering Statement" has to be kind of a public record, lol.

Thinking about it, they may not be able to provide it to everyone because it could be considered soliciting a timeshare sale which they cannot do everywhere in the world. But I guess they should have to provide the sections of the POS that regulates the operations of DVCMC and they must notify all members about any change done to it.

 

[mustinjourney]

I'm late to the thread but i realized how this works.

This is a big deal folks.

BWV points are allocated (sold) as dedicated studios and 1-bedrooms, and the 2-bedroom lock offs are allocated as 2-bedrooms. However, because the. 2-bedrooms run out in studios first, that means a lot of 2-bedrooms actually rent for more points than are in the system. By shifting more point value to the studios and 1-bedrooms, Disney creates extra availability across the whole system.

Example: with the old allocation, a 2-bedroom goes for 350 a week during magic season, but the studio and 1-bedroom go for 403 points, which creates an extra 53 points in the system. Shifting it to be 341 and 405 means they now create 64 points instead of 53.

This does two things, it means more availability across the entire system which is good in theory for the member, but it is also means that in the end thats more rooms that Disney can rent out for cash, because they Cantrell them with points because the points do not exist. It's a way for DVC to make more money.

I finally got around to running the numbers for Grand Floridian...in which ALL of the studios and 1BRs are part of the lock-offs. The effect that this had was that Disney was able to increase the number of points available by 3%.



The top one was done operating under the assumption that all the studios would be rented out (obviously this doesn't always happen -- but certainly more studios are secured than 2BR lockoffs). The bottom chart is how the points are actually accounted for. What's scary about this is that this means that DVC could essentially do whatever they damn well pleased with the points for studios and 1BRs since they have ZERO effect on the overall points in the system.

*ETA -- my numbers are going to be slightly off since I used the points required to actually book the rooms in 2019 or 2020, respectively. I've now found out, that for reallocation purposes, you're supposed to use the new points on the same year to account for differences in weekend/weekdays -- and leap year. Which would explain why 2020 is higher than 2019.

 

[skier_pete]

Right - at most resorts they created 2-3% more points. The system has 56 million points in it. 2.5% is 1.4 million points they just created. Of course, that's again assuming all the lock-offs are rented as studios - which is clearly never the case. However, 1.4 million points equals about 10% of SSR being available to rent for cash.

 

[DizDaD7]

Either way you look at it......It Su*#s.......

 

[Dean]

I finally got around to running the numbers for Grand Floridian...in which ALL of the studios and 1BRs are part of the lock-offs. The effect that this had was that Disney was able to increase the number of points available by 3%.

View attachment 374517

The top one was done operating under the assumption that all the studios would be rented out (obviously this doesn't always happen -- but certainly more studios are secured than 2BR lockoffs). The bottom chart is how the points are actually accounted for. What's scary about this is that this means that DVC could essentially do whatever they damn well pleased with the points for studios and 1BRs since they have ZERO effect on the overall points in the system.

*ETA -- my numbers are going to be slightly off since I used the points required to actually book the rooms in 2019 or 2020, respectively. I've now found out, that for reallocation purposes, you're supposed to use the new points on the same year to account for differences in weekend/weekdays -- and leap year. Which would explain why 2020 is higher than 2019.

Right - at most resorts they created 2-3% more points. The system has 56 million points in it. 2.5% is 1.4 million points they just created. Of course, that's again assuming all the lock-offs are rented as studios - which is clearly never the case. However, 1.4 million points equals about 10% of SSR being available to rent for cash.

Obviously the % of units booked as smaller components isn't 100%. At somewhere where it's just lockoff's and no smaller units that are dedicated, it's likely far less. And it's also basically a certainty that more 2 BR lockoff's will be booked as the the full unit than before, how much is what we don't know. Thus realistically the difference (if any) in reality is likely to be FAR less, certainly less than 1% total, likely FAR less. Personally I think it'll be about even give or take. Remember that every 2 BR and 3 BR booked as a full villa credits the other side of the ledger.

 

[freediverdude]

I would say his/her numbers are probably close to correct on VGF, because we all know most days those studios are gone at 11 month at 8am. So unless somebody is booking a lockoff 2 bedroom at the 11 month mark specifically, almost all of those are being booked as studio and 1 bedroom.

Now yes the other resorts are different stories, and would have to be looked at individually. BWV comes to mind that the percentage would be lower. The others, probably somewhere in between, splitting the difference.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Obviously the % of units booked as smaller components isn't 100%. At somewhere where it's just lockoff's and no smaller units that are dedicated, it's likely far less. And it's also basically a certainty that more 2 BR lockoff's will be booked as the the full unit than before, how much is what we don't know. Thus realistically the difference (if any) in reality is likely to be FAR less, certainly less than 1% total, likely FAR less. Personally I think it'll be about even give or take. Remember that every 2 BR and 3 BR booked as a full villa credits the other side of the ledger.

I would be curious on how many lock off units rent as 2BR's and agree that some do and it probably varies at different times of the year. During Fall Frenzy I bet it's very limited that make it to 2BR's other than BWV. For resorts that only have studios as part of lockoffs though I'd guess it's a very high percentage that ends up renting as lockoffs.

FWIW I came up with an amount in that same range as @skier_pete The really frightening part is it's not even about the existing lockoff premium - the almost 1.4 million points is the difference between the lock-off premium in 2019 and what is coming in 2020.

 

[zavandor]

I finally got around to running the numbers for Grand Floridian...in which ALL of the studios and 1BRs are part of the lock-offs. The effect that this had was that Disney was able to increase the number of points available by 3%.

View attachment 374517

The top one was done operating under the assumption that all the studios would be rented out (obviously this doesn't always happen -- but certainly more studios are secured than 2BR lockoffs). The bottom chart is how the points are actually accounted for. What's scary about this is that this means that DVC could essentially do whatever they damn well pleased with the points for studios and 1BRs since they have ZERO effect on the overall points in the system.

*ETA -- my numbers are going to be slightly off since I used the points required to actually book the rooms in 2019 or 2020, respectively. I've now found out, that for reallocation purposes, you're supposed to use the new points on the same year to account for differences in weekend/weekdays -- and leap year. Which would explain why 2020 is higher than 2019.

Excellent data. So the decrease in 2BR has been balanced by an increase in GV. The increase to studios and 1BR have no correspondng balance, it's all lockoff premium increase.
What astonishes me is that some people think this is for the members benefit.

 

[motherof5]

AKV Value 1 & 2 bedrooms went down. Value studios stayed the same (except dream season weekends...went up 1 pt per night).

But these are difficult to get on points, yet oddly enough still avail if not DVC member and paying cash

 

[JETSDAD]

But these are difficult to get on points, yet oddly enough still avail if not DVC member and paying cash

Normally Value 1 BR's are quite easy to get (studios are very tough but most days there is at least one available to start a reservation). Right now the entire Value category has been blocked out by Disney for over a week.

 

[glamdring269]

What's the general thinking in regards to PVB points? I assume that since it is only Studios/Bungalows that there should be no lock off creep allowed in that resort. Only exposure would be balancing demand between seasons and studios/bungalows. Am I overlooking something?

 

[skier_pete]

What's the general thinking in regards to PVB points? I assume that since it is only Studios/Bungalows that there should be no lock off creep allowed in that resort. Only exposure would be balancing demand between seasons and studios/bungalows. Am I overlooking something?

No you don't have to worry about lock-off premiums. You do have to worry about the shift from bungalows to studios - which is what they just did. Almost all studio days were raised 1 or 2 points to lower the price point of the bungalows. Considering the resort was already amongst the most expensive (point-wise) to stay in studios, that's not that great, but not that surprising either. It's of course possible they correct it further in 2021.

 

[skier_pete]

Obviously the % of units booked as smaller components isn't 100%. At somewhere where it's just lockoff's and no smaller units that are dedicated, it's likely far less. And it's also basically a certainty that more 2 BR lockoff's will be booked as the the full unit than before, how much is what we don't know. Thus realistically the difference (if any) in reality is likely to be FAR less, certainly less than 1% total, likely FAR less. Personally I think it'll be about even give or take. Remember that every 2 BR and 3 BR booked as a full villa credits the other side of the ledger.

@Dean, you are definitely more optimistic than most of us. The popularity of studios is clearly much greater than 1-BD and 2-BD. Of course it depends a lot on resorts - but many have the majority of studios tied into lock-offs. I would have a hard time believing that at LEAST half of all lock-offs get booked as studios, and I would say it more likely to be more than 50%.

I also am not as optimistic that this is going to effectively drive many more people to book 2-BDs. For instance, how many people that currently book studios are going to upgrade to 2-beds? 1%? Maybe. 1-BDs it may be higher, but since many 1-BDs don't get booked until the studios are already gone, how will this drive people to 2-BDs. I think an increase in 10% of 2-BD bookings would be generous. In fact, the changes may drive some people who previously booked 1-BDs to instead book studios - which could make the problems worse.

You ARE right in saying it is a number less than what I presented - certainly I presented the higher end case. But without hard data (which they will never, ever release) you cannot convince me that DVC is going to break even on this move.

 

[motherof5]

Normally Value 1 BR's are quite easy to get (studios are very tough but most days there is at least one available ti start a reservation). Right now the entire Value category has been blocked out by Disney for over a week.

None avail all oct, nov and dec

 

[JETSDAD]

None avail all oct, nov and dec

For 1 BR there is availability. Studios will be long since booked up. I was saying that at 11 months most days there is at least a shot at a studio, not that the availability remains beyond that.

 

[mustinjourney]

Excellent data. So the decrease in 2BR has been balanced by an increase in GV. The increase to studios and 1BR have no correspondng balance, it's all lockoff premium increase.
What astonishes me is that some people think this is for the members benefit.

Yeah -- the fact that VGF has no dedicated studios or 1BRs, effectively means that they can do ABSOLUTELY anything they want with those points. I think this lawsuit will need to focus on disney being a fiduciary of the members. This is a much bigger deal than the recent announcement regarding resale restrictions and future resorts.