$130 point for BLT

[tjkraz]

But Disney hasn't been exercising ROFR at all (except for BCV), and the foreclosure issue isn't exactly new.

I agree on both counts.

Foreclosures most often occur when buyers don't have enough equity to sell the property outright. DVC doesn't need to exercise ROFR on foreclosures--they simply take the points back. The only "cost" to DVC associated is writing off the debt that was still owed by the previous owner.

Besides, there really isn't any justification for DVC dabbling in resales at this point. DVC is sitting on a surplus of BLT, AKV and SSR points that could take them 3-4 years to sell. Sure they could re-purchase SSR points at $60 and potentially sell for $100 or more, but when they already have hundreds-of-thousands of SSR points available to them, it makes no sense to aggressively re-acquire more.

Once BLT is "sold out" there's a good possibility DVC will pursue ROFR as they are currently doing on some BCV contracts. They may even ROFR some BLT contracts now at the right price. But not SSR or AKV.

 

[hot_mama]

Would DVC members be happier to hear that the price of BLT is dropping to $80 a point? Actually, I view this price increase as generally good news. Disney should be happy because it should make more money. Resale agents like the Timeshare Store should also be happy because it makes their resale contracts more attractive, resulting in more commissions. Current owners of BLT should be happy because we are glad that we bought BLT when the price was lower. And BLT owners who are wanting to sell should be happy because they might be able to demand a slightly higher price.

As for potential buyers who may now buy in at a higher price, well, keep in mind we are all volunteers. None of us are forced to buy into the DVC, nor are we forced to buy into DVC at $130 a point. But even at $130/point, ownership of BLT can make sense. In March 2010, we stayed 7 nights in an MK view studio for 183 points. The CRO cash rate for that stay was $4646.00, including tax. At $130/point, it might take me two or three more trips to "recover" my purchase price than when the price was $104 or $120/point, but a DVC membership can still make sense.

I COMPLETELY AGRE! I am glad we bought when we did, and fell like our investment is now worth more.

 

[arthur06]

I just called my guide this week about an add on. Looking for 50-75 at BLT. She is on vacation this week, so I haven't heard anything. We have a Dec UY, so I could/would get '09 points!

But with $130 the new price, not sure that buying direct is even going to be anything that I care for...

... another thought might be that since VGC is sold out, there might be another on property DVC waiting to hit the market. And if it was a monorail resort they are just setting a "floor" price and not a "ceiling".

...maybe they are going to have "preferred" points??? Buying direct gets you MF's at current levels and buying resale gets you a higher MF scale?

 

[Crystal_27]

With DVC, there is always going to be a better deal out there, just as there is going to be a worse deal. That's why pre-buying research is key and, for those who decide to spend $20,000+ on impulse, they can pay $130/point and Disney will laugh all the way to the bank. This is nothing new...

 

[TisBit]

I wonder how much of it is betting on an economic recovery. If there is a strong recovery in the next couple of years, DVC has slowly raised their prices during the downturn, so people that begin looking will see price and it didn't go up $20 in a year or some other absurd number. Disney has always been famous for raising prices, then offering discounts.....

 

[WilsonFlyer]

<snip>... another thought might be that since VGC is sold out, there might be another on property DVC waiting to hit the market. And if it was a monorail resort they are just setting a "floor" price and not a "ceiling".
<snip>

With its proximity to the MK, I cannot even IMAGINE any other resort anywhere else on-property ever even being able to hold a candle to BLT price-wise, no matter how elaborate or to what resort it might be added on to.

Unless they're planning on destroying Tomorrowland to build Cindy's DVC with her clotheline attached to one room's prime balcony's terrace, it just ain't gonna happen IMHO.

 

[TisBit]

With its proximity to the MK, I cannot even IMAGINE any other resort anywhere else on-property ever even being able to hold a candle to BLT price-wise, no matter how elaborate or to what resort it might be added on to.

Unless they're planning on destroying Tomorrowland to build Cindy's DVC with her clotheline attached to one room's prime balcony's terrace, it just ain't gonna happen IMHO.

I don't foresee a groundbreaking ceremony anytime soon, but with all the complaints coming in about Poly and the need for major refurbishment, it could be a prime opportunity to bring in a new design idea that incorporates a DVC aspect.

There will be another monorail DVC, it is just when that is in question....

 

[spiceycat]

I don't foresee a groundbreaking ceremony anytime soon, but with all the complaints coming in about Poly and the need for major refurbishment, it could be a prime opportunity to bring in a new design idea that incorporates a DVC aspect.

There will be another monorail DVC, it is just when that is in question....

hey waited 15 years for BLT - so hoping it will be at least 15 years before another monrail DVC.

my guess though it won't be Polyn - but GF. really think once the four seasons opens - it might be a problem for it. When it has to go head to head with a real 4 (maybe 5) star resort.

of the two - blt or one at the GF - I pick BLT. now if and when the Polyn also becomes part of DVC - will have a problem.

have loved the Polyn since 1973.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

I don't foresee a groundbreaking ceremony anytime soon, but with all the complaints coming in about Poly and the need for major refurbishment, it could be a prime opportunity to bring in a new design idea that incorporates a DVC aspect.

There will be another monorail DVC, it is just when that is in question....

You may have missed the point I Was trying to convey.

Didn't say there wouldn't be one. Quite the contrary; I certainly believe there will be another, probably two. I simply said that IMHO, no other would ever have the sale values of BLT. That's all.

The Poly would be great. I want it as badly as anyone else does and I've never even stayed at the Poly (out of my price range to be honest) BUT no matter how elaborate and exotic it may be, you'll never be able to spit on Cinderella Castle from the Poly. It will never be PERCEIVED to have the value BLT has.

BLT has set THE bar for the top tier in Florida and DVD knows it. That's probably the reason the price was raised; because they know (and always have known) that no new property will ever be able to demand a higher price than BLT and no existing property can have its price raised even CLOSE to BLT's, certainly not until BLT is sold out. If they wanted to raise SSR's price, they had to raise BLT first. Make sense?

 

[tjkraz]

The Poly would be great. I want it as badly as anyone else does and I've never even stayed at the Poly (out of my price range to be honest) BUT no matter how elaborate and exotic it may be, you'll never be able to spit on Cinderella Castle from the Poly. It will never be PERCEIVED to have the value BLT has.

BLT has set THE bar for the top tier in Florida and DVD knows it. That's probably the reason the price was raised; because they know (and always have known) that no new property will ever be able to demand a higher price than BLT and no existing property can have its price raised even CLOSE to BLT's, certainly not until BLT is sold out. If they wanted to raise SSR's price, they had to raise BLT first. Make sense?

I dunno about that.

If you compare rack rates between the two, the Poly tends to be higher than the Contemporary for similar views. A Poly Magic Kingdom view in Regular Season is $590 per night vs. $525 for the CR. Even a BLT Studio is only $555 for the same dates.

Overall it appears that people prefer the ambiance and theme of the Poly over the Contemporary. That is perhaps BLT's Achilles Heel. There are many people who do appreciate the very...contemporary...furnishings, but many do not. It's a very polarizing style. Some love it...some hate it. Not much middle ground.

Of course the unknown factors are how large of a DVC component they would build at the Poly. BLT has about 300 rooms. If they only put 150 at the Poly, there is no question in my mind that DVC prices will be at an all-time high and resale prices will eclipse all others. But if they put 500 villas at the Poly, higher supply may dampen resale prices to a degree.

But regardless of what comes next, I don't see DVC lowering its prices. DVC is still a good value even if it now takes an extra year or two to reach that elusive "breakeven point." With DVC not even having broken ground on the next WDW-based resort, it's still a good 3+ years into the future. And you better believe its price will be more than $130 per point.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

I dunno about that.
<snip>
With DVC not even having broken ground on the next WDW-based resort, it's still a good 3+ years into the future. And you better believe its price will be more than $130 per point.
<snip>

And BLT will certainly be sold out by then. See above.

 

[jcf]

By end of 2011 $145/pp...

 

[JSTX]

Does anyone know what the rate change is effective 11/1?

Our guide left a message confirming the $130/pt on 12/1 and indicating that the finance rate would change on 11/1, so that if we wanted to finance more points we would want to do it prior to 11/1. Unfortunately he is on vacation until 10/30, so we cannot talk to him until then.

 

[FLWIDisneyFan]

Keep in mind we are talking about pricing in dollars. As the dollar weakens, people from other countries do not see the same increase in cost. Have you looked at the exchange rates lately?

 

[gkrykewy]

Keep in mind we are talking about pricing in dollars. As the dollar weakens, people from other countries do not see the same increase in cost. Have you looked at the exchange rates lately?

Have you looked at the exchange rates lately? If you look at the 5 year exchange rate trends, the euro/dollar rate is right smack in the middle of its 5-year range (and until a couple of months ago, the dollar was in a phase where it was unusually strong). Against the British Pound, the dollar is almost at a 10-year high.

Despite the hyperventilated rhetoric from some circles (who tend to be much louder than they are informed) about the dollar, it's really quite fine.

That said, most DVC sales are domestic anyway.

With its proximity to the MK, I cannot even IMAGINE any other resort anywhere else on-property ever even being able to hold a candle to BLT price-wise, no matter how elaborate or to what resort it might be added on to.

Unless they're planning on destroying Tomorrowland to build Cindy's DVC with her clotheline attached to one room's prime balcony's terrace, it just ain't gonna happen IMHO.

Wishful thinking, my friend. BLT is already selling in the low 90s via resale - they all follow the same trajectory.

 

[rsimon]

It makes perfect sense for them to raise the price on BLT. If you look at recent posts showing the points sold at BLT vs AKV, you can see they are having a hard time selling AKV points and no problem selling BLT points.

They are also getting low on BLT points and as any price increase does, allows them to do a sales push and close out the property (they need to close it out so I won't buy more points ).

As a BLT and AKV point owner, I have no problem with them raising the prices and I would like to see them sell AKV out at some point soon as well as BLT. Will allow them to open another property at Disney sooner.. (uh oh.. might have to buy more points)

 

[gkrykewy]

If you look at recent posts showing the points sold at BLT vs AKV, you can see they are having a hard time selling AKV points and no problem selling BLT points.

Strangely, this is intentional. If you look at other recent posts by prospective members, you'll see that Disney is steering any and all buyers toward BLT, even in some cases refusing to share details for any other resorts. For some reason, they want BLT to sell out ASAP, and before AKV. Perhaps there's another monorail resort in the wings?

 

[WilsonFlyer]

Wishful thinking, my friend. BLT is already selling in the low 90s via resale - they all follow the same trajectory.

I don't recall having talked about the resale market in any of my posts. Secondary market was not the topic at hand here.

Now. For the record. Were it not for the current economic turndown, I still believe that ultimately, BLT will continue to be the most demanded property onsite and therefore the resale market will keep its price high. Why not right now? Because there are people bailing due to economic times and situations that is not a true reflection of the viability of the product on the secondary market over the long haul. When this all shakes out and points on the secondary market start to thin out on BLT (I believe there will ultimately be a lot less resales of BLT than all other properties on-property.), and they will; BLT will still demand the highest price on the resale market over the long haul. IMO.

 

[CMOORE185]

With its proximity to the MK, I cannot even IMAGINE any other resort anywhere else on-property ever even being able to hold a candle to BLT price-wise, no matter how elaborate or to what resort it might be added on to.

Unless they're planning on destroying Tomorrowland to build Cindy's DVC with her clotheline attached to one room's prime balcony's terrace, it just ain't gonna happen IMHO.

I believe you are overstating the value of BLT's proximity to MK. IMO a Poly or GF DVC would more than hold a candle to BLT price-wise. IMO the Poly and GF's popularty over BLT would trump proximity to MK, considering both resorts are still very close to MK and on the Monorail.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

I believe you are overstating the value of BLT's proximity to MK. IMO a Poly or GF DVC would more than hold a candle to BLT price-wise. IMO the Poly and GF's popularty over BLT would trump proximity to MK, considering both resorts are still very close to MK and on the Monorail.

A perfectly valid point and opinion. I guess time will tell the tale. At least for now, there are no GF or Poly DVCs, so it's hard to know for sure.