“Official” 2025 Hurricane/TD/Weather thread for the 2025 hurricane season

[lovethattink]

This thread is for all the Tropical weather related discussion for the 2025 Hurricane season. Similar to last year’s thread. Where we discussed weather, park plans, Disney updates, flight updates, resort updates etc. during this time.

Keep in mind that Disney very rarely closes the parks. Many Floridians flock to the Orlando area if they don’t feel safe at home.


Aug 11, 2025
We start with Erin. At this point too early to say anything other than keep an eye on it. Don’t get caught up on the hype.

 

[Dug720]

My BFF who lives in Tampa gave me the guy she and her husband follow. His latest update showed the spaghetti models, almost all of which show Erin turning north before hitting the US. He said no need to cancel any Disney vacations, cruises, etc. at this point.

 

[hardcorestitch]

Looks like most of the models (courtesy of FOX 13 Tampa) are leaning south right now but too early to call.

 

[lovethattink]

My BFF who lives in Tampa gave me the guy she and her husband follow. His latest update showed the spaghetti models, almost all of which show Erin turning north before hitting the US. He said no need to cancel any Disney vacations, cruises, etc. at this point.

Denis Phillips? He’s who I follow. He does Denis Phillips live at 7pm most nights on Facebook and also at the ABC Action news station.

 

[Dug720]

Denis Phillips? He’s who I follow. He does Denis Phillips live at 7pm most nights on Facebook and also at the ABC Action news station.

Yes!

 

[sponica]

My BFF who lives in Tampa gave me the guy she and her husband follow. His latest update showed the spaghetti models, almost all of which show Erin turning north before hitting the US. He said no need to cancel any Disney vacations, cruises, etc. at this point.

I'd like my eastern caribbean itinerary that leaves saturday to stay an eastern itinerary, so the earlier it jogs north, the better.

 

[CarolynFH]

At this point too early to say anything other than keep an eye on it.

Amen!

 

[OKW Lover]

Just to add another resource to this thread - The National Hurricane Center - is a good, non-sensationalized site to track storms.

 

[Dug720]

Just to add another resource to this thread - The National Hurricane Center - is a good, non-sensationalized site to track storms.

Denis Phillips is not sensationalized. He's a meteorologist in Tampa.

 

[OKW Lover]

Denis Phillips is not sensationalized.

Good for him.

It seems to me that most TV weather forecasters are more intent on gaining audience. So they tout the "latest" updates that are no different than what they said 4 hours ago. They also warn of the severest conditions that might happen a week out - so stay tuned.

 

[Dug720]

Good for him.

It seems to me that most TV weather forecasters are more intent on gaining audience. So they tout the "latest" updates that are no different than what they said 4 hours ago. They also warn of the severest conditions that might happen a week out - so stay tuned.

In my experience from having a lot of friends and family in the Florida area and having lived in Eastern North Carolina, those meteorologists are much less likely to sensationalize than those who are national meteorologists or in other parts of the country not as likely to be affected.

If you bother to look at what Phillips is saying, he's saying at this point NOT to go canceling any Disney vacations, cruises, etc. and for parents of kids at Florida universities not to worry. Doesn't sound like sensationalizing to me.

 

[Disnsyncey]

Just to add another resource to this thread - The National Hurricane Center - is a good, non-sensationalized site to track storms.

my FAVORITE place to go just like I like radar.weather.gov for my normal life

I moved to GA and no one cares about hurricanes up here and I'm like, "you don't check the NHC updates every three hours?"

There was an AMAZING guy on fb last season that had he MOST detailed and explanatory broadcasts....

 

[Disnsyncey]

In my experience from having a lot of friends and family in the Florida area and having lived in Eastern North Carolina, those meteorologists are much less likely to sensationalize than those who are national meteorologists or in other parts of the country not as likely to be affected.

If you bother to look at what Phillips is saying, he's saying at this point NOT to go canceling any Disney vacations, cruises, etc. and for parents of kids at Florida universities not to worry. Doesn't sound like sensationalizing to me.

not calling him sensationalized, but tv news in general wants viewers......I just start with the NHC and build up from there.....I wanna find that detailed guy and share him.....

 

[Dug720]

not calling him sensationalized, but tv news in general wants viewers......I just start with the NHC and build up from there.....I wanna find that detailed guy and share him.....

Yes, I use both. I like that the meteorologists in the areas accustomed to storms explain what is happening and what is likely - and they also show the spaghetti models so you can see where they are trending the same. I haven't found spaghetti models on the NHC site.

 

[lovethattink]

Good for him.

It seems to me that most TV weather forecasters are more intent on gaining audience. So they tout the "latest" updates that are no different than what they said 4 hours ago. They also warn of the severest conditions that might happen a week out - so stay tuned.

His motto is Rule #7. Which is don’t panic unless he panics.

 

[2vets]

His motto is Rule #7. Which is don’t panic unless he panics.

Denis is fantastic. I have family in Tampa, and he is the best. Calm and measured.

 

[sconnell]

my FAVORITE place to go just like I like radar.weather.gov for my normal life

I moved to GA and no one cares about hurricanes up here and I'm like, "you don't check the NHC updates every three hours?"

There was an AMAZING guy on fb last season that had he MOST detailed and explanatory broadcasts....

I'm in the Savannah area and I track on NHC to see the latest models they're showing. Trip or no trip. lol

 

[Disnsyncey]

I'm in the Savannah area and I track on NHC to see the latest models they're showing. Trip or no trip. lol

LOVE! Though I have driven home to FL on 16 and when I hit Savannah I looked at the vegetation and said "AHHHH I'm home!" even if I was over 2 hours away hahahaha

 

[sconnell]

LOVE! Though I have driven home to FL on 16 and when I hit Savannah I looked at the vegetation and said "AHHHH I'm home!" even if I was over 2 hours away hahahaha

We're closer to Orlando than some Floridians. Wish we could get those discounts! haha. (At least make it a radius!)

 

[fla4fun]

For day to day monitoring of the tropics, I use ventusky.com to look for trouble. You can select the criteria you want to view by (precipitation, wind speed, wind guests, etc.) and I usually select wind gusts, since that makes any potential hurricane really pop on the screen. There are several different computer models available to view, with some going out as far as two weeks. There are no forecasts, no hyped up predictions, just the simple running of computer models at various intervals. I check it when I first wake up, around lunch time, and before bed, every day during hurricane season.

Once a hurricane has formed I add the National Hurricane Center site to get the predictions and cones. If one is coming through Florida, I usually use AccuWeather because it lets me track down to a local neighborhood level as the storm passes through.

I don’t rely as much on regular weather channels or local news for the hurricane itself. I do use local news for information relating to prep and clean up.