Whenever the subject of a fifth
DCL ship comes up, I always wonder "Where would Disney put it?" New York? Galveston? The West Coast? Would Disney want to place yet another ship in Port Canaveral/Miami and try to fill another 52 weeks of Bahamas/Caribbean itineraries every year? In the last few years, other cruise lines, including Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Princess, NCL, and Celebrity, have increased capacity with larger ships in the Caribbean/Bahamas market. The result has been that the market is becoming more competitive and profit margins are getting tighter.
Unlike a cruise line like Princess or Celebrity that can expand into more exotic markets like the Far East, South America, and Australia, DCL's fan base doesn't seem to travel well outside U.S. ports. Could DCL fill a 4,000 passenger ship with 10- to 14-day itineraries operating year round out of Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Sydney?
I see a greater possibility that DCL will bring in a new ship into its fleet, but then retire the Magic or Wonder. Those ships are 17 years old already, and would be 20 years old, or more, by the time a new ship is ready to be launched. New ships have new technologies and designs that make them more fuel efficient and cheaper to operate than ships built years ago.