5th Ship

[rrehman]

We wont see the Magic or Wonder retired for quite some time. At least another 15-20 years.
When DCL was first conceived, it was to have a minimum of 10 ships. At least 6 of which were in Fl. 2 each in PC, Mia, and POT. At least 2 would be in Cali. I don't remember off hand where the other 2 would be.

With that said and current world events etc. things change. If I were in charge, I make theses few changes based on 6 ships. The Dream and Fantasy would stay put. One of the new in between ships would stay as a 3rd ship in PC doing 4s and 5s double dips. The other would go to replace the Wonder in Cali. Then winter in Galveston or Miami.
The Magic and Wonder would go to Mia, doing 7-10 day trips to the Carribean. Say adding in other island destinations that get lost, and not currently in the mix like Aruba, or Bonaire. Then in time, as more ships are added bump the Dream and Fantasy to Mia and the Magic and Wonder to test new routes. The Magic or the Wonder can go Europe for the summer while the 2nd new ship takes over in Mia, or goes to Europe herself.

Heres why.
In PC the Dream and Fantasy are cash cows. The same was said about the Magic and Wonder then they were here. Both ships are sail around 90-100% full regularly. Say the new ships have 3000 cabins with an average of 3 people per cabin. Add in the 2 Dream class ships and that is 14000 rooms avail per week or 42000 people per week moving through PC alone. Or figuring the average of $3000 per cabin and it 42 million per week.


When trying out a new route, you don't send the biggest ship to a new market. Only because you don't know how many people are interested. So you initially limit the cabins. Then over time, you add a ship or a bigger ship based on demand.
The Magic class would be ideal to start in Miami as a test, for full time trips.
The Wonder has already proven the popularity of the Alaskan cruise, so bump up to a larger ship with newer amenities for Alaska. Now your cost per passenger just went down increasing your profit.
Galveston at the moment is a 50/50 to me. Remembering that the last time DCL was there, they cut the contract short. Im guessing from lack of bookings but cant swear to it. I curious to see how it works out this time. The other thing is the number of times the Magic was late coming or going due to fog.


DCL is going to go where the money is.

I agree with most of what your said. As for Alaska, I have never been there, but from what other people that have been there have told me is that the ships that are there now are the largest that can handle the area. The Wonder is about as big of a ship that can handle the rivers. A larger ship may not fit, plus the Panama Canal issue until it is complete.

 

[OrangeCountyCommuter]

I think the addition of the Dream and Fantasy was a HUGE error. I have gone from being a fan to thinking they are really no different then the other lines, they just charge more. The charm and service disappeared on those big ships. If they would go back to small ships with good service I would be back, but I would expect the "greed" to be "bigger is better"

 

[OKW Lover]

I agree with most of what your said. As for Alaska, I have never been there, but from what other people that have been there have told me is that the ships that are there now are the largest that can handle the area. The Wonder is about as big of a ship that can handle the rivers. A larger ship may not fit, plus the Panama Canal issue until it is complete.

We just got back from an Alaska cruise on the Jewel of the Seas and there is no doubt in my mind that the Alaskan ports can handle larger ships than the Magic class DCL ships. I saw larger ships from other cruise lines in Skagway and Juno.

 

[Rogillio]

I think the addition of the Dream and Fantasy was a HUGE error. I have gone from being a fan to thinking they are really no different then the other lines, they just charge more. The charm and service disappeared on those big ships. If they would go back to small ships with good service I would be back, but I would expect the "greed" to be "bigger is better"

It's not personal....it's business. The new/bigger ships are evidently more cost effective. And the demand seems to still be high enough to fill the ships. And there is a constant supply of new cruisers as families are made and people have children. Within a few years Disney will be sailing with the second generation of cruisers. My kids first sailed on the Magic when they were 3 and 6 and now they are grown and will be starting their own families...and taking vacations. And I KNOW my kids will take their kids on Disney cruises!

 

[Tonka's Skipper]

I do not know the rules and regs or the maximum size and tonnage, but the USCG does have limits on the maximum size, speed and maneuvering for vessels to transit the various channels and approach the ice/ glaciers.

AKK

 

[rrehman]

We just got back from an Alaska cruise on the Jewel of the Seas and there is no doubt in my mind that the Alaskan ports can handle larger ships than the Magic class DCL ships. I saw larger ships from other cruise lines in Skagway and Juno.

The ports can handle the larger ships, but can the waterways handle the larger ones from the large mountains on the side? I heard a podcast once, don't remember which one it was that said the size of the Disney ships are slightly smaller, and they go deeper into the glaciers than the other cruise lines do because of their ability to turn around. I can't imagine the Dream turning around in those narrow waterways.

 

[OKW Lover]

The ports can handle the larger ships, but can the waterways handle the larger ones from the large mountains on the side? I heard a podcast once, don't remember which one it was that said the size of the Disney ships are slightly smaller, and they go deeper into the glaciers than the other cruise lines do because of their ability to turn around.

I'm not a maritime or Alaska expert, but the size of the Jewel of the Seas that we were on is pretty close to the Magic-class ships. While in the ports (Juno & Skagway) I saw larger ships. I was amazed during this cruise as to how close we were to the shore when cruising along the Tracey Arm Fjord right up to the glacier. I have no doubt that a Dream-class ship would be able to sail those waters. But again, I'm no expert. Perhaps @Tonka's Skipper can offer some expertise.

 

[Quellman]

I think this topic has brought out some really great conversations and I have really enjoyed reading some of the theories and rumors. There appear to be some very knowledgeable people around these parts.

Galveston at the moment is a 50/50 to me. Remembering that the last time DCL was there, they cut the contract short. Im guessing from lack of bookings but cant swear to it. I curious to see how it works out this time. The other thing is the number of times the Magic was late coming or going due to fog.

I remember a lot of discounted rates from Galveston for sailings, so it would venture to say that they were not exactly filling the boat. I agree with the fog, and there have been recent oil spills delaying ships as well. The last I think was due to a grounded tanker barge.

I also recall that there were some photos with Disney Executives in New Orleans. Link 1. Link 2. I do not know if that would be a viable port either since it appears to mirror Galveston. New Orleans is stuck trying to suck up the surrounding southeast population areas which may not have the disposable income to fill a Disney ship. Past ships in New Orleans have generally been older style ships on short cruises to Mexico. It would be a day closer than Galveston, so the itinerary would be more likely to include a day at Port Canaveral or Castaway Cay. Itinerary could rotate Sea-Key West-Castaway-PC-Nassau-Sea-Sea and then hit up Sea-Jamacia-Grand Cayman-Sea-Costa Maya-Cozumel-Sea.

But even the port of Mobile in Alabama lost their last cruise ship with Carnival a few years back, and no one has show interest to return. Could be lack of supporting population. Could be lack of interesting itineraries. To only sail to Cozumel and Costa Maya is tough to find appeal for people who cruise frequently and want to experience new things. .

 

[wcw57]

I was talking to a bus driver at WDW and he KNEW they are planning 2 more ships and a barge...the barge will be docked in Brooklyn and they will float up and down the Hudson....CAN'T WAIT!!!

 

[Tonka's Skipper]

I'm not a maritime or Alaska expert, but the size of the Jewel of the Seas that we were on is pretty close to the Magic-class ships. While in the ports (Juno & Skagway) I saw larger ships. I was amazed during this cruise as to how close we were to the shore when cruising along the Tracey Arm Fjord right up to the glacier. I have no doubt that a Dream-class ship would be able to sail those waters. But again, I'm no expert. Perhaps @Tonka's Skipper can offer some expertise.

Sorry OKW Lover, I took a look around but I cannot find any detailed rules and regs on things like tonnage, size, etc. I know they are somewhere, likely buried in the Federal Code. I do know the USCG does monitor the vessels by radar and with small USCG vessels watching. The vessels have the rules on the bridges and the fines can be pretty big if they get to close.


HEY Truck 1........your pretty good at going though the Federal codes!

AKK

 

[Bruiserknits]

Does anyone else think its strange that Disney hasn't a fifth ship on the way? They are obviously very good at what they do, the can pack all the ships and they are making plenty of money. Cant fathom why they wouldn't build more ships.

On my recent Dream cruise I took a "Making of the Dream" talk. The crew member who did the session said that a fifth ship wouldn't be made until the fourth ship was paid for. Quite prudent.

 

[Bruiserknits]

In my mind, Disney transformed cruising and made it a family vacation option. I think it started with The Big Red Boat but I'm not sure whatever happened to that. I remember when my daughter was an infant in the early 90s our Pediatrician told us about the wonderful family vacation they had on The Big Red Boat. I also remember thinking, "How boring! Cruises are for old people not something you do with children!" And then Disney got into cruising...and before you knew it you started see RCCL commercials with kids climbing rock walls and surfing in wave pools.
Anyway, now that some of the other cruise line are started to cater to 'family vacations' DCL no longer corners the market....make it more difficult to fill boats.

The Big Red Boat was a third party that Disney had the right to "theme" but not run, manage, or do much else. So basically it was a cruise with Disney theming. Disney had a limited contract with them, but were surprised at the popularity. When they started thinking of doing it themselves, they contacted other cruise ships and they were told, "Well, you have to find a way to entertain people. You know, like a casino." Disney didn't want to get into casinos, but they were whizzes at entertaining. So they announced they were building their own ship. Their contract ended with Premiere Cruise Lines (the owners of BRB) and it wasn't long before Premiere went out of business. Disney was literally keeping them afloat. People said it wouldn't last. And look where we are.

 

[aprincessatlast]

The ports can handle the larger ships, but can the waterways handle the larger ones from the large mountains on the side? I heard a podcast once, don't remember which one it was that said the size of the Disney ships are slightly smaller, and they go deeper into the glaciers than the other cruise lines do because of their ability to turn around. I can't imagine the Dream turning around in those narrow waterways.

I read that once too and I personally don't believe that. We got just as close as Disney ships in Tracy Arm. At lease from pictures point of view from others going around the same time. I say it all depends on the day you are going and the time of the year. Then again I am not expert but I don't believe the people on those podcasts are either. lol

It was not until we went to Alaska on another line did I notice how small the Wonder really was. We were on a ship that was 109k tonnage and the wonder is 83K. I was amazed at how close we were to the mountains. Disney is awesome but some of the other lines know Alaska as they have been there for decades. I don't buy the line that DCL has the inside scoop on those waterways and abilities to get around. The Princess Captain was amazing at the things he was able to get accomplish. What DCL does have is an adorable mouse who you can get your picture with when sailing by those mountains and that is worth the premium I suppose.

 

[Jsoenning]

Seems to me Galveston wasn't thought out well from an itinerary perspective.

Disney added an 8-night (that we took) to Key West, Castaway Cay & Walt Disney World in 2013 compared to 2012, which to me gives a competitive difference to the rest of the lines out of Galveston that do the same Cozumel, Jamaica, Grand Cayman or Cozumel, Honduras, Costa Maya itineraries.

This go around we're headed on a 7-night to Key West, Castaway Cay & Nassau.

 

[Tonka's Skipper]

Disney MAGIC AND Pixie Dust trumps all!

AKK

 

[lisamarie12]

I think this topic has brought out some really great conversations and I have really enjoyed reading some of the theories and rumors. There appear to be some very knowledgeable people around these parts.


I remember a lot of discounted rates from Galveston for sailings, so it would venture to say that they were not exactly filling the boat. I agree with the fog, and there have been recent oil spills delaying ships as well. The last I think was due to a grounded tanker barge.

I also recall that there were some photos with Disney Executives in New Orleans. Link 1. Link 2. I do not know if that would be a viable port either since it appears to mirror Galveston. New Orleans is stuck trying to suck up the surrounding southeast population areas which may not have the disposable income to fill a Disney ship. Past ships in New Orleans have generally been older style ships on short cruises to Mexico. It would be a day closer than Galveston, so the itinerary would be more likely to include a day at Port Canaveral or Castaway Cay. Itinerary could rotate Sea-Key West-Castaway-PC-Nassau-Sea-Sea and then hit up Sea-Jamacia-Grand Cayman-Sea-Costa Maya-Cozumel-Sea.

But even the port of Mobile in Alabama lost their last cruise ship with Carnival a few years back, and no one has show interest to return. Could be lack of supporting population. Could be lack of interesting itineraries. To only sail to Cozumel and Costa Maya is tough to find appeal for people who cruise frequently and want to experience new things. .

New Orleans would be an interesting option. I don't know whether it would fill the ships or if it meets the target demographic or not. Having sailed from NOLA before on Carnival, I noticed it was a lot of a "commuter" crowd. But I don't know that it would limit to just the south. NOLA is about 12 hours from us, maybe 10 or so from St. Louis area. So for Midwesterners, it is driveable. I won't drive to Galveston. The extra 2 hours it adds are just too much. If there were a ship and NOLA and it was remotely affordable, I would drive there to sail. Maybe it would draw more people that drive.

But then again there are people that drive to WDW and some drive even from Northern U.S., so perhaps those people would be just as willing to drive to Port Canaveral. But for me atleast, if I were going to drive all the way to Florida for Disney, I would just go to WDW. Because I can just drive to NOLA and cruise Carnival.

One thing that is interesting about NOLA is that there are not that many ships there. Carnival has 2. NCL I think has one. Royal used to have a ship, but I think they stopped doing that.

I wish Disney would do a trial run on ships from NOLA. Being driveable would cut down the cost and make it more affordable for our family.

 

[Bree]

I would like to see another ship come into play if it meant more Southern Caribbean itineraries. We went on a Southern Caribbean cruise out of San Juan in 2006 on RCCL and to this day that is my favorite cruise. I want to go back and was hoping to do it Disney style, but the dates are never good for us. I can't pull my kids (well, my DS) out from school for a week.

 

[jrapps]

I'm sure Disney already has a framework design of a 5th and 6th ship in the works...but that doesn't really mean much. Companies like Disney design stuff all the time that never gets built. Anyone ever hear of the Disney America park in Virginia? Or how many times have there been rumors of a 5th Theme Park in Orlando...

The reality is that the financials drive the decisions. The Magic/Wonder were commissioned in 94 and launched in 98/99 (4-5 year development). Incidentally this was about the same time as Disney built Animal Kingdom (announced in 95, opened in 98)

The Dream/Fantasy weren't announced until 2007 (13 years after the Magic was announced). Their designs weren't unveiled until 2009, 2 years later, and didn't set sail until 2011/12. So from previous history, there is a 13-year gap between ships. And keeping the Theme Park comparison going on, Disney's next big Theme Park launch was the Fantasyland Expansion, again at the same times, announced in 2009 and opened from 2012-2014. They are also still working on a big expansion for Animal Kingdom with AVATAR land.

The point is Disney does things in waves. Design, Build, Wait....Recoup Cost....Rinse & repeat. If Disney took the same 13 years for the next 2 ships, we won't see an announcement until 2020 and the ships wont set sail until 2023 (which by the way 2023 is when their contract with PoC is up for renewal..that can't be a coincidence.)

The other question is one of capacity and profits for the existing fleet. As someone mentioned, Disney is one of the few lines that sail at near to full capacity for almost every sailing and they charge a hefty premium over other lines. If all of a sudden they had 30%-40% more ship capacity to fill (i.e. 2 new ships), would they still command that much of a premium? Are there enough people willing to pay Disney rates, or will the extra capacity force them to lower prices due to supply and demand? Only Disney can answer that.

I personally feel that we will see a new ship before 2023, but it won't be anytime soon. Disney still has a lot of cost to recoup between the Dream/Fantasy/fantasyland/Avatarland, etc....We have at least 2-3 more years before Disney even mentions building more ships.

 

[263a2879]

Was your source driving a bus by any chance?

I said reliable source...please don't insult me.

 

[wcw57]

easy, boxer...it was a joke! If you've been here a while, you know that there are a gillion threads of WDW rumors being from bus drivers.....it wasn't an insult. Just a clever DISboards insider joke....