5th Ship

I would expect 2 new vessels around 2018/2019.

If they were going to have them by then they would have to announce them now. I think the dream and fantasy were about three yrs of planing and constriction. I just double checked the Wikipedia page for the dream and her keel was laid in august of 2009 and her christening was in 2011.
 
Whenever the subject of a fifth DCL ship comes up, I always wonder "Where would Disney put it?" New York? Galveston? The West Coast? Would Disney want to place yet another ship in Port Canaveral/Miami and try to fill another 52 weeks of Bahamas/Caribbean itineraries every year? In the last few years, other cruise lines, including Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Princess, NCL, and Celebrity, have increased capacity with larger ships in the Caribbean/Bahamas market. The result has been that the market is becoming more competitive and profit margins are getting tighter.

Unlike a cruise line like Princess or Celebrity that can expand into more exotic markets like the Far East, South America, and Australia, DCL's fan base doesn't seem to travel well outside U.S. ports. Could DCL fill a 4,000 passenger ship with 10- to 14-day itineraries operating year round out of Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Sydney?

I see a greater possibility that DCL will bring in a new ship into its fleet, but then retire the Magic or Wonder. Those ships are 17 years old already, and would be 20 years old, or more, by the time a new ship is ready to be launched. New ships have new technologies and designs that make them more fuel efficient and cheaper to operate than ships built years ago.

We wont see the Magic or Wonder retired for quite some time. At least another 15-20 years.
When DCL was first conceived, it was to have a minimum of 10 ships. At least 6 of which were in Fl. 2 each in PC, Mia, and POT. At least 2 would be in Cali. I don't remember off hand where the other 2 would be.

With that said and current world events etc. things change. If I were in charge, I make theses few changes based on 6 ships. The Dream and Fantasy would stay put. One of the new in between ships would stay as a 3rd ship in PC doing 4s and 5s double dips. The other would go to replace the Wonder in Cali. Then winter in Galveston or Miami.
The Magic and Wonder would go to Mia, doing 7-10 day trips to the Carribean. Say adding in other island destinations that get lost, and not currently in the mix like Aruba, or Bonaire. Then in time, as more ships are added bump the Dream and Fantasy to Mia and the Magic and Wonder to test new routes. The Magic or the Wonder can go Europe for the summer while the 2nd new ship takes over in Mia, or goes to Europe herself.

Heres why.
In PC the Dream and Fantasy are cash cows. The same was said about the Magic and Wonder then they were here. Both ships are sail around 90-100% full regularly. Say the new ships have 3000 cabins with an average of 3 people per cabin. Add in the 2 Dream class ships and that is 14000 rooms avail per week or 42000 people per week moving through PC alone. Or figuring the average of $3000 per cabin and it 42 million per week.


When trying out a new route, you don't send the biggest ship to a new market. Only because you don't know how many people are interested. So you initially limit the cabins. Then over time, you add a ship or a bigger ship based on demand.
The Magic class would be ideal to start in Miami as a test, for full time trips.
The Wonder has already proven the popularity of the Alaskan cruise, so bump up to a larger ship with newer amenities for Alaska. Now your cost per passenger just went down increasing your profit.
Galveston at the moment is a 50/50 to me. Remembering that the last time DCL was there, they cut the contract short. Im guessing from lack of bookings but cant swear to it. I curious to see how it works out this time. The other thing is the number of times the Magic was late coming or going due to fog.


DCL is going to go where the money is.
 
If they were going to have them by then they would have to announce them now. I think the dream and fantasy were about three yrs of planing and constriction. I just double checked the Wikipedia page for the dream and her keel was laid in august of 2009 and her christening was in 2011.

I just looked. The Dream class was announced in Feb 07 and her first cruise was Jan 11. Not quite 4 full years from announcement to arrival in PC. That's not counting the plan time that DCL worked out before they said anything.
 
I still hold in the back of my mind the wish that DCL would buy the S/S United States and rebuild her into service.:worship: It is never likely to happen, but it would be wonderful!


(Yes Truck 1, I know you hate the idea Buddy!):rolleyes1

AKK

I don't hate the idea, I just don't see DCL doing it. Though it would be nice if they stepped in to save her.
 


If they were going to have them by then they would have to announce them now. I think the dream and fantasy were about three yrs of planing and constriction. I just double checked the Wikipedia page for the dream and her keel was laid in august of 2009 and her christening was in 2011.


That is just a estimate, a good deal would depend on what stage of the designing and plans are at and what yard and a building slot availability. Truck one brought up some good points in his posts.


AKK
 
Galveston at the moment is a 50/50 to me. Remembering that the last time DCL was there, they cut the contract short. Im guessing from lack of bookings but cant swear to it. I curious to see how it works out this time. The other thing is the number of times the Magic was late coming or going due to fog.
The Galveston-Houston market is a tough market for cruise lines. Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Princess, and NCL are competing against one another, resulting in relatively tight profit margins for everyone. Princess and NCL returned to Houston's Bayport Cruise Terminal in the Fall 2013 because of concessions given them by the Port of Houston Authority. Bayport didn't have any tenants and PHA had to do something to attract a cruise line. Those subsidies end fairly soon for Princess (maybe next year if I recall correctly), while NCL has an extra year or two before its subsidies expire. It will be interesting to see if those cruise lines stay in Houston once those subsidies are gone.

This doesn't mean that DCL can't make a go of the Galveston market. I don't know what capacity numbers DCL had while it was operating out of Galveston, but I suspect they weren't good enough to offset the tighter operating margins. DCL management probably thinks it can generate more profit operating out of the Florida ports rather than dealing with the intricacies of the Galveston/Houston ports.
 
Possible name for new ships(s)

I keep coming up with "Imagination", but think of any others
 


I don't hate the idea, I just don't see DCL doing it. Though it would be nice if they stepped in to save her.
Saving her would be nice. The last time I drove through Philly, she didn't look good... Faded paint, lots of rust and a slight list...
 
In my mind, Disney transformed cruising and made it a family vacation option. I think it started with The Big Red Boat but I'm not sure whatever happened to that. I remember when my daughter was an infant in the early 90s our Pediatrician told us about the wonderful family vacation they had on The Big Red Boat. I also remember thinking, "How boring! Cruises are for old people not something you do with children!" And then Disney got into cruising...and before you knew it you started see RCCL commercials with kids climbing rock walls and surfing in wave pools.
Anyway, now that some of the other cruise line are started to cater to 'family vacations' DCL no longer corners the market....make it more difficult to fill boats.
 
Whenever the subject of a fifth DCL ship comes up, I always wonder "Where would Disney put it?" New York? Galveston? The West Coast? Would Disney want to place yet another ship in Port Canaveral/Miami and try to fill another 52 weeks of Bahamas/Caribbean itineraries every year? In the last few years, other cruise lines, including Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Princess, NCL, and Celebrity, have increased capacity with larger ships in the Caribbean/Bahamas market. The result has been that the market is becoming more competitive and profit margins are getting tighter.

Unlike a cruise line like Princess or Celebrity that can expand into more exotic markets like the Far East, South America, and Australia, DCL's fan base doesn't seem to travel well outside U.S. ports. Could DCL fill a 4,000 passenger ship with 10- to 14-day itineraries operating year round out of Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Sydney?

I see a greater possibility that DCL will bring in a new ship into its fleet, but then retire the Magic or Wonder. Those ships are 17 years old already, and would be 20 years old, or more, by the time a new ship is ready to be launched. New ships have new technologies and designs that make them more fuel efficient and cheaper to operate than ships built years ago.

NYC is a tough place to homeport a ship. While it is convenient to a large population base from Washington, DC up to Boston, I've heard that the portage fees are quite high. I would guess that DCL would want their ship in Manhattan and not Bayonne, NJ. It would also be difficult to homeport a ship in winter. On an 8-day itinerary in January, it would take at least 2 days until the ship would be sailing into warmer weather. 2 cold days down and 2 back would leave only half the cruise in warm weather. At DCL prices, that wouldn't have great appeal (for me at least, I want my winter cruise to be warm from day 1!!!).

DCL tried homeporting the Wonder in LA a few years ago. They struggled to fill the ship without KSF specials and other incentives. They ended up pulling the plug early and cancelling a few sailings at the end to bring her back to the east coast ahead of schedule.

RCCL is investing heavily in the Chinese market. They have already sent Quantum there and announced that Ovation (3rd Quantum-class ship) is going there as well. That's 2 of their newest ships committed to a relatively new market for them. Could DCL follow suit? Perhaps, but I'm sure they'll see how their new park is received before committing a ship there.

DCL's home port is even upping the game. Port Canaveral built Cruise Terminal 1 for an Oasis-class or Quantum-class ship. I'm sure RCCL committed a big ship to PC before construction started, but the story goes that no guarantees were made. RCCL announced that Oasis will sail from PC beginning in 2016. Carnival is moving the Sensation out of PC in 2016 and replacing her with the Victory (until the Valor completes a drydock), then the Valor. Also Carnival is moving the Magic to PC in late 2016. Terminal 5 and Terminal 10 are slated for renovations to attract additional ships and lines.

DCLs target market is different from Princess and Celebrity. DCL targets families, Princess and Celebrity target a more mature demographic. I'm not saying that exclusively, but the averages do play that out. I disagree that DCL's fan base doesn't travel well outside US ports, their Med cruises sell quite well. Perhaps because they are seasonal, but they still do well. DCL doesn't price against their competitors either. They are true believers that having fewer berths create a larger demand for their product. If you shop DCL vs Carnival or RCCL on similar itineraries out of PC, DCL will always come out higher (in some cases, significantly higher). That hasn't seemed to hinder their ability to fill their ships.

After the huge investment DCL made in the Magic's reimagineering, don't look for either the Magic or Wonder to be retired any time soon. The only reason Wonder hasn't gotten the same treatment is because she is now the only DCL ship that will fit through the Panama Canal. Look for her to get the same treatment once the new locks are completed and operating. Someone mentioned that Meyer Werft's yards in Germany and Finland have a 5-year backlog earlier in the thread. Magic and Wonder were built by Fincantieri in Marghera, Italy, so DCL is not just tied to one shipyard.
 
The Galveston-Houston market is a tough market for cruise lines. Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Princess, and NCL are competing against one another, resulting in relatively tight profit margins for everyone. Princess and NCL returned to Houston's Bayport Cruise Terminal in the Fall 2013 because of concessions given them by the Port of Houston Authority. Bayport didn't have any tenants and PHA had to do something to attract a cruise line. Those subsidies end fairly soon for Princess (maybe next year if I recall correctly), while NCL has an extra year or two before its subsidies expire. It will be interesting to see if those cruise lines stay in Houston once those subsidies are gone.

This doesn't mean that DCL can't make a go of the Galveston market. I don't know what capacity numbers DCL had while it was operating out of Galveston, but I suspect they weren't good enough to offset the tighter operating margins. DCL management probably thinks it can generate more profit operating out of the Florida ports rather than dealing with the intricacies of the Galveston/Houston ports.

Dont get me wrong. I think DCL giving Galveston a 2nd shot isn't a bad idea, I just don't know the numbers DCL was dealing with when they were there the first time, or the exact reason that they left early. It could have been a planned move.

The 64000 question is, will people go to Galveston to get on a Disney ship or not.

Time will tell.
 
Disneyland Shanghai and Tokyo Disney will build a huge Disney base and I can see them fielding another sip to the far east.

Personally I'd like to see DCL refurm the SS Minnow and offer 3 hour tours.
3 hour fishing tours of CC maybe?
 
DCL's home port is even upping the game. Port Canaveral built Cruise Terminal 1 for an Oasis-class or Quantum-class ship. I'm sure RCCL committed a big ship to PC before construction started, but the story goes that no guarantees were made. RCCL announced that Oasis will sail from PC beginning in 2016. Carnival is moving the Sensation out of PC in 2016 and replacing her with the Victory (until the Valor completes a drydock), then the Valor. Also Carnival is moving the Magic to PC in late 2016. Terminal 5 and Terminal 10 are slated for renovations to attract additional ships and lines.

PC wants the number 1 cruise spot so bad, they can taste it. They willing to wheel and deal to make that happen. I remember seeing in a local paper that RCL made a promise to the port that they would home port one of their bigger ships at PC in exchange for priority over the new terminal 1. Sound familiar?

Looking at what Carnival and RCL are doing,(Adding more cabin capacity and ship options and in RCLs case new itins) it only makes sense that DCL will follow suit eventually.
 
I don't think DCL did a good job on advertising for the Wonder when it was doing Mexico. I live on the west coast and barely knew they were sailing after/before doing Alaska. Also with the conflicts in Mexico it hasn't helped with people wanting to visit. I would think having more cruises out of LA would help with people wanting to do a DCL/DLR vacation (kind of like they have in PC).

We did our first repo in 2012 and the ship was maybe half full. The next year it was full or close to it. Word got out that DCL was on the west coast. The second year we had one less night on the ship and it was more expensive even with the OBB.
 
I work for a hotel chain and we can't build fast enough in China. There is a new middle class explosion with money to spend. I think Disney might explore the Asian Pacific market if they had another ship. We know there are Disney fans with Disneyland Tokyo and Shanghai. If they ever do it I know I would love to sail Asia Pacific.
 
PC wants the number 1 cruise spot so bad, they can taste it. They willing to wheel and deal to make that happen. I remember seeing in a local paper that RCL made a promise to the port that they would home port one of their bigger ships at PC in exchange for priority over the new terminal 1. Sound familiar?

Looking at what Carnival and RCL are doing,(Adding more cabin capacity and ship options and in RCLs case new itins) it only makes sense that DCL will follow suit eventually.

They absolutely want it... With the loss of the shuttle program and mass layoffs at KSC, PC is now viewed as the primary economic engine of the region. That's why they got the cargo cranes from Savannah and are building the cargo yard, widened and deepened the channel and built Terminal 6 and Terminal 1.

The official story that I've read is PC marketed Terminal 1 to RCCL as a potential home for Quantum. It is rumored that RCCL wanted the terminal under similar terms to what Carnival got in Terminal 6 and DCL got with Terminal 8, but never officially promised a Quantum-class or Oasis-class ship to PC. I'm sure there was plenty of the old wink-wink, nudge-nudge in the statements made by both parties. I can't see PC taking on that kind of project without up front assurances of getting a boat bigger than Freedom. Obviously it worked as Oasis is scheduled to start sailing from PC in 2016.

The rumor is that Terminal 5 and Terminal 10 are going to be extensively renovated to incorporate some of the high-tech systems that were built into Terminal 1 to increase speed and efficiency in embarkation and debarkation. There are also rumors that they are going to build another new terminal along the channel and have been working to add other cruise lines to the current mix. RCCL has already upped the capacity for their 3 & 4 day Bahama runs by moving Enchantment in to take over for Monarch, Carnival is also bringing newer, and bigger ships to PC, so it would stand to reason that DCL will do something. I think the PC exclusivity clause for the Dream & Fantasy will be up soon.
 
Here's what I was told from a very reputable source within DCL...

There are 2 new ships in the plans (no build dates) that we know of.

The ships will be big (bigger than the Dream and Fantasy).

The ships plans show new features of roller coasters and lazy rivers.
 
They absolutely want it... With the loss of the shuttle program and mass layoffs at KSC, PC is now viewed as the primary economic engine of the region. That's why they got the cargo cranes from Savannah and are building the cargo yard, widened and deepened the channel and built Terminal 6 and Terminal 1.

The official story that I've read is PC marketed Terminal 1 to RCCL as a potential home for Quantum. It is rumored that RCCL wanted the terminal under similar terms to what Carnival got in Terminal 6 and DCL got with Terminal 8, but never officially promised a Quantum-class or Oasis-class ship to PC. I'm sure there was plenty of the old wink-wink, nudge-nudge in the statements made by both parties. I can't see PC taking on that kind of project without up front assurances of getting a boat bigger than Freedom. Obviously it worked as Oasis is scheduled to start sailing from PC in 2016.

The rumor is that Terminal 5 and Terminal 10 are going to be extensively renovated to incorporate some of the high-tech systems that were built into Terminal 1 to increase speed and efficiency in embarkation and debarkation. There are also rumors that they are going to build another new terminal along the channel and have been working to add other cruise lines to the current mix. RCCL has already upped the capacity for their 3 & 4 day Bahama runs by moving Enchantment in to take over for Monarch, Carnival is also bringing newer, and bigger ships to PC, so it would stand to reason that DCL will do something. I think the PC exclusivity clause for the Dream & Fantasy will be up soon.


I wouldn't be a bit surprised if there was some back door, if you do this well park one of theses here.
Found this on the Ports site. Basically the ships in green are existing terminals. The ones in red are proposed. There was a better one on their site but it disappeared when the port finally updated their page.
 

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