WOW DVC Prices !!!

[Yankee626]

I think the VGC resale prices will drop significantly once VDH are for sale ( which will be soon) . I believe it to drop to 175 a Pt or even less. The 2042 resorts will be dropping $10 a point or so per year from now on . At some point they will not even be worth the time and effort to purchase them . Probably around the point where there are 5-8 years left. At that point there will be a ton of Points on the Rental market because people cant sell so they will rent. This will probably drive the Rental cost PP down also. Just my thought . Lord help us if some sort of mini Hyperinflation sets in.

 

[DVCsloth]

No

The economy. Disney is not the only company downsizing. Luxury items are the first to go. Timeshares are luxury items. Resale will continue to drop. We will also see incentives on direct prices. All the more reason Poly II will be part of the original legacy resorts. Direct buyers will have to choose between 2070 resort with resale damage, and 2066 (poly) unrestricted resale. Both will have significant incentives.

I really doubt it will be the same association. Just buy resale if you can book the new resort at 11 months.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

No
I really doubt it will be the same association. Just buy resale if you can book the new resort at 11 months.

But in a down economy will disney really want to attach resale restrictions and slow down sales? RIV would be much further along in sales without the restrictions. If restrictions are in place, I would buy poly II resale, if not I would buy direct.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

The economy. Disney is not the only company downsizing. Luxury items are the first to go. Timeshares are luxury items. Resale will continue to drop. We will also see incentives on direct prices. All the more reason Poly II will be part of the original legacy resorts. Direct buyers will have to choose between 2070 resort with resale damage, and 2066 (poly) unrestricted resale. Both will have significant incentives.

If it’s part of the same association, give me a Poly resale!!!

 

[Brian Noble]

But in a down economy will disney really want to attach resale restrictions and slow down sales?

Disney has shown, over and over, that they are willing to play the long game with DVC sales---and removing resales from he Club is very much a long game, given the expiration dates of the O14.

 

[Sunnyore]

I agree, we are still newbies as we have only done two DVC trips so far. I like to rent a car because of stroller and ease of mind with a six and two year old at the airport and to and from parks. We even rented a car staying at BLT (I am glad we did because we were shocked to see how long it took to get to Epcot on the monorail and drove after one time).

I think when the kids are older we will re visit. But my favorite thing about DVC is seeing how many different ways people do it and the variety of choices!

I timed it once and it only took me 27 min to get from my BLT to scanning at Epcot going via monorail. Obviously the monorails have to be running smoothly and I am a fast walker. So I stop driving to Epcot during the day but will still drive to Epcot in the evening where I can pick spots closer to the front. I rent a car each trip just for the convenience but I almost rarely use it now with my split stays at BLT and then BWV/BCV. I got the timing down of the boats too so I don’t even walk to and from Epcot when staying at BWV. I’ll drive to AK and with trams back it’s not bad at all. I know people have good experiences with the buses/skyliners but I had a terrible experience with them when I was staying at Riviera. For me personally I totally see the value of staying in the bubble and at a monorail/Epcot resort. I have no regrets paying a little more for those location advantages.

 

[TinkAgainU]

Disney has shown, over and over, that they are willing to play the long game with DVC sales---and removing resales from he Club is very much a long game, given the expiration dates of the O14.

That makes sense - but then why would Disney do Riviera at 2070 instead of a shorter timeframe? Since DVC Direct is very emotions based, I don't think saying Direct Buyers are doing the math and needed those extra years for justification (frankly, based on just math, we'd stay home lol).

 

[Brian Noble]

I'm not sure I understand your question. DVC has more or less stuck to the 50-year time frame for new resort associations ever since the final 2042.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Disney has shown, over and over, that they are willing to play the long game with DVC sales---and removing resales from he Club is very much a long game, given the expiration dates of the O14.

I think that is pretty much the only long game they've done. What else might really be significant part of long term for DVC? I think they are very short term thinkers. It's about the numbers for this year and next year. If something really rocks that boat they row backwards.
But I don't think the resale restrictions on Riviera are showing near the benefit they hoped if it is at all. And the wider DVC lets the resale to direct prices get the more people will note that and not be able to justify direct. High resale is DVC's best ploy IMO.

 

[TinkAgainU]

I'm not sure I understand your question. DVC has more or less stuck to the 50-year time frame for new resort associations ever since the final 2042.

Maybe I misunderstood, I thought you were indicating you thought DVD was calculating receipt of the 2042 resorts back as a good "long term" goal for Disney. IF they were calculating getting resorts back in 2042 as a positive, then it seems they would have used a shorter term on Riviera to get it back sooner? Even if they've "always" done 50 years, DVD changed a lot of their approaches with Riviera. My thought is that means they do not see getting, at least Riviera, back early as a positive.

 

[Sandisw]

Maybe I misunderstood, I thought you were indicating you thought DVD was calculating receipt of the 2042 resorts back as a good "long term" goal for Disney. IF they were calculating getting resorts back in 2042 as a positive, then it seems they would have used a shorter term on Riviera to get it back sooner? Even if they've "always" done 50 years, DVD changed a lot of their approaches with Riviera. My thought is that means they do not see getting, at least Riviera, back early as a positive.

I think the reference was the when restrictions went into place we are now about 23 years away from the 2042 resorts expiring and having those popular resorts come back with them.

So, they may have decided it was a good time to start the move to make resale points not valid for future resorts and at the time, Reflecrions was on target to open shortly after that. Had that happened, we have two resorts right now with them and VDH getting ready for sale.

 

[Brian Noble]

I thought you were indicating you thought DVD was calculating receipt of the 2042 resorts back as a good "long term" goal for Disney.

Sort of. Instead, what I mean is: Disney is transitioning from a model where resale buyers are "in the Club" (the way e.g. Wyndham or Hilton work) to a model where resale buyers are "not in the Club" (the way Diamond works). That's going to take years to really make a difference, because the earliest expirations are still 19 years from now.

 

[Bearval]

But in a down economy will disney really want to attach resale restrictions and slow down sales? RIV would be much further along in sales without the restrictions. If restrictions are in place, I would buy poly II resale, if not I would buy direct.

Yes they will, this has been a long protracted effort by DVD to differentiate direct and resale. All of the previous moves didn’t produce the desired results. Once you have multiple resorts with restricted points you will have buyers with FOMO.

 

[Bearval]

I think that is pretty much the only long game they've done. What else might really be significant part of long term for DVC? I think they are very short term thinkers. It's about the numbers for this year and next year. If something really rocks that boat they row backwards.
But I don't think the resale restrictions on Riviera are showing near the benefit they hoped if it is at all. And the wider DVC lets the resale to direct prices get the more people will note that and not be able to justify direct. High resale is DVC's best ploy IMO.

DVD in the past wanted high resale prices because the only difference was with resale you didn’t get membership extras, so people would say “ direct isn’t too much more and we will get the membership extras”. Well that didn’t work so now with the restrictions for resale they are basically two entirely different products on how you can use your points.

 

[VWLforever]

You do a dining reservation and then walk to the parks? I thought you couldn’t park with a dining reservation for more than like 2 hours. Don’t you run the risk of having your car towed or something?

No, they don't patrol the lot for when you have to leave, at all. They just won't let you into the lot without a hotel or dining reservation.

 

[PlutoPan]

If it’s part of the same association, give me a Poly resale!!!

Agreed.

 

[CarolynFH]

If it’s part of the same association, give me a Poly resale!!!

And that’s why I think it will be a separate association. They’ll need sales of direct points to pay for construction of the new Poly (in addition to marketing and sales costs, of course). They won’t want people buying cheaper resale old Poly to have the same 11 month booking advantage as the new Poly direct buyers. And it will probably be the third DVC resort with resale restrictions (after RIV and VDH), normalizing that as part of DVC too.

 

[Genie+]

From the beginning of RIV restrictions I wondered if they’d allow trades into subsequent new resorts, a DVC B group. Middle of the road, not so bad, and even somewhat desirable. It would still block people from the O14. Direct opens all the locks and resale would need at least 2 contracts to access both DVC A and B. Sales could push the no limitations aspect of Direct Membership.

It’s still possible. Economic downturn hitting hard? Resale tanking with RIV having a much larger gap than the rest? Then Poly2, VDH and the next announced new resort have an answer. Resale would benefit from Group B trading with each other but still, it’s only 3 or 4 resorts and one is actually in CA. The whole shebang is still way more enticing because it’s 17+ intriguing locations PLUS blue cards perks of Moonlight Magic, a slew of snazzy new exclusive lounges just for you, and whatever else they conjur.

It may sound too generous to allow restricted resale into just the newer resorts. But thinking about it in practice it is a deterrent. You’re locked out of GFV, BLT, BW/BC, CC/BR, AKV, OKW, SSR, AUL, HHI, Vero and locked into only the new High point charts. Your options are buy from Group A resale but you can’t ever combine those points…
or buy Direct

Restricted resale is saved from dipping farther than non. Direct doesn’t lose its attraction or need bigger incentives to compensate if the economy causes a flood of restricted RIV resales that sinks price because that very specific demand doesn’t keep up.

 

[Sandisw]

From the beginning of RIV restrictions I wondered if they’d allow trades into subsequent new resorts, a DVC B group. Middle of the road, not so bad, and even somewhat desirable. It would still block people from the O14. Direct opens all the locks and resale would need at least 2 contracts to access both DVC A and B. Sales could push the no limitations aspect of Direct Membership.

It’s still possible. Economic downturn hitting hard? Resale tanking with RIV having a much larger gap than the rest? Then Poly2, VDH and the next announced new resort have an answer. Resale would benefit from Group B trading with each other but still, it’s only 3 or 4 resorts and one is actually in CA. The whole shebang is still way more enticing because it’s 17+ intriguing locations PLUS blue cards perks of Moonlight Magic, a slew of snazzy new exclusive lounges just for you, and whatever else they conjur.

It may sound too generous to allow restricted resale into just the newer resorts. But thinking about it in practice it is a deterrent. You’re locked out of GFV, BLT, BW/BC, CC/BR, AKV, OKW, SSR, AUL, HHI, Vero and locked into only the new High point charts. Your options are buy from Group A resale but you can’t ever combine those points…
or buy Direct

Restricted resale is saved from dipping farther than non. Direct doesn’t lose its attraction or need bigger incentives to compensate if the economy causes a flood of restricted RIV resales that sinks price because that very specific demand doesn’t keep up.

The only way forward to do what you suggest is that the new resorts enter BVTC with rules for RIV points, rules for grandfsthered points, and resales of L14 bought after 2019.

RIV agreement with BVTC would also need to to change . Is it possible ? Yeah, but I think it then defeats the whole purpose of making it restricted to begin with…

Now, i could see them changing it up to offer owners to upgrade points that are restricted for fee per reservation.

I guess I think they are either in or out with them. VGF I think is an outliner but if they do the same with Poly tower, then they might as well just end them all together. I don’t think they will.

 

[Genie+]

The only way forward to do what you suggest is that the new resorts enter BVTC with rules for RIV points, rules for grandfsthered points, and resales of L14 bought after 2019.

Isn’t that the way it is now? That’s how RIV entered.