WOW DVC Prices !!!

[HIRyeDVC]

For me, that still argues against renting. Every time I look, ROI on rentals for resale points is usually at best equal to the long-term post-tax rate of return for a diversified low-fee stock index fund. Usually it's a little less. It doesn't really matter which resort. Yes, prime resorts get more annual revenue, but their cost basis is higher making it a wash.

(If you think about it, this should not be surprising. The invisible hand strikes again!)

But, renting is more work vs. the set-and-forget of an index fund. What's more, the diversified nature of the fund spreads risk, vs. DVC rentals which focus risk---and that risk is correlated with your own desire to travel. So, exactly when you might want to travel less often due to outside factors, and put more of your points up for rental, everyone else wants to travel less too.

I can buy that. From 2020-2022, I went to DLR and WDW 6 times. Now I go once or twice a year. It has nothing to do with not having APs. My revenge travel money and desire has dried up a bit.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Just skimmed the ROFR thread. Wow! Prices are coming down. I saw a BW in the 80’s. It looks like the the resorts holding their value right now are Poly (probably due to uncertainty with tower) and CCV - newest resort that still trades into legacy. It will be interesting to see where the prices fall. I don’t think Disney is in any position to be buying back real estate right now, so the bottom is yet to be seen.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Just skimmed the ROFR thread. Wow! Prices are coming down. I saw a BW in the 80’s. It looks like the the resorts holding their value right now are Poly (probably due to uncertainty with tower) and CCV - newest resort that still trades into legacy. It will be interesting to see where the prices fall. I don’t think Disney is in any position to be buying back real estate right now, so the bottom is yet to be seen.

Some of these prices on the ROFR board are outliers and not the norm, especially that BWV at $80. Even still, prices HAVE fallen dramatically since last year with plenty of room to fall. Disney direct faces stiff competition going forward, especially with no ROFR in sight. I think prices can fall another 30% IMO. Great for new buyers but as an owner, I’m sad to see DVC so vulnerable.

 

[linzjane88]

Some of these prices on the ROFR board are outliers and not the norm, especially that BWV at $80. Even still, prices HAVE fallen dramatically since last year with plenty of room to fall. Disney direct faces stiff competition going forward, especially with no ROFR in sight. I think prices can fall another 30% IMO. Great for new buyers but as an owner, I’m sad to see DVC so vulnerable.

Had anybody else noticed the total listings are down to aground 2300 from the 2600+ of just a few weeks ago? I'm hoping we didn't pass the glut of availability.

Also I wonder the people with those contacts that have been up for months and months do with their points they are presumably not using. At some point if you aren't open to negotiating and the next years points are coming you'd become more willing to accept offers so you don't lose points, right? What I'm gathering from the ROFR thread is that most of the good deals are coming from newer listings not the stubborn high priced listings sitting for a while.

It's so hard to wait to add on. I want to see what's gonna happen with VDH and Poly but hope I don't kick myself for missing the resale boat if they start them outrageously priced direct!

 

[gmi3804]

I've been using my points, for resort-only (or -mostly) stays, and at Aulani (which eats up a lot of points). I'm trying to keep my money out of parks revenue, and to keep others from renting my points to stay and visit the parks. Yeah, I know it doesn't mean much in the Great Scheme of Things, but maybe if Disney is as good at data collection as people seem to think, Someone will notice. I'm certainly vocal in my post-stay surveys.

 

[linzjane88]

I've been using my points, for resort-only (or -mostly) stays, and at Aulani (which eats up a lot of points). I'm trying to keep my money out of parks revenue, and to keep others from renting my points to stay and visit the parks. Yeah, I know it doesn't mean much in the Great Scheme of Things, but maybe if Disney is as good at data collection as people seem to think, Someone will notice. I'm certainly vocal in my post-stay surveys.

We did a resort only last year and I was really impressed by how much I enjoyed it and how relaxing it was. I got to feel like I went to Disney without the chaos.

Glad we did parks on the last trip though. SSR main pool was down for refurb and the other pools were packed (well, all loungers in use anyway, starting at 10am) so it was much less enjoyable hanging around the resort.

 

[gmi3804]

We did a resort only last year and I was really impressed by how much I enjoyed it and how relaxing it was. I got to feel like I went to Disney without the chaos.

Glad we did parks on the last trip though. SSR main pool was down for refurb and the other pools were packed (well, all loungers in use anyway, starting at 10am) so it was much less enjoyable hanging around the resort.

There's so much to do in WDW that doesn't involve parks, and we've thoroughly enjoyed our stays over the past year or so, and absolutely love Aulani. Not THAT'S a resort they did right, and there's just enough Disney for those who want it, and for those who don't.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

There's so much to do in WDW that doesn't involve parks, and we've thoroughly enjoyed our stays over the past year or so, and absolutely love Aulani. Not THAT'S a resort they did right, and there's just enough Disney for those who want it, and for those who don't.

Living here in Hawaii, Aulani is a resort of last resort. But we do love it. So much that we own points there too. I can’t ever imagine doing a resort only stay at WDW. Not for the distance we travel.

 

[motherof5]

my guess would be inflation, job losses and overall economy. maybe its normal for January?

my thoughts exactly. Great time to buy though!

 

[gmi3804]

Living here in Hawaii, Aulani is a resort of last resort. But we do love it. So much that we own points there too. I can’t ever imagine doing a resort only stay at WDW. Not for the distance we travel.

I get that; it's different for those from the mainland traveling to HI. Having a great base resort with stunning villas gives us the freedom to explore the island.

Traveling across five to six time zones for a WDW resort stay would probably be a no-go for us, unless we were visiting other cities on the mainland within reasonable distance. As it is, a two-hour flight from Chicago makes getting to WDW fairly easy for us.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Had anybody else noticed the total listings are down to aground 2300 from the 2600+ of just a few weeks ago? I'm hoping we didn't pass the glut of availability.

Also I wonder the people with those contacts that have been up for months and months do with their points they are presumably not using. At some point if you aren't open to negotiating and the next years points are coming you'd become more willing to accept offers so you don't lose points, right? What I'm gathering from the ROFR thread is that most of the good deals are coming from newer listings not the stubborn high priced listings sitting for a while.

It's so hard to wait to add on. I want to see what's gonna happen with VDH and Poly but hope I don't kick myself for missing the resale boat if they start them outrageously priced direct!

No doubt, competitively priced contracts are moving fast but they still make up a small percentage of overall market. I think buyers also need to come to reality, that many sellers probably don’t HAVETO sell, especially below a certain threshold. I know of plenty of people, who have just taken down their listings because they would rather keep it and use it, than to get lowballed, which also accounts to the drop in inventory that you mentioned. It’s certainly a buyer’s market. But the sky isn’t falling and buyers shouldn’t expect sellers to be giving their contracts away below “market“ value, whatever that may be.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I get that; it's different for those from the mainland traveling to HI. Having a great base resort with stunning villas gives us the freedom to explore the island.

Traveling across five to six time zones for a WDW resort stay would probably be a no-go for us, unless we were visiting other cities on the mainland within reasonable distance. As it is, a two-hour flight from Chicago makes getting to WDW fairly easy for us.

Hawaii is the most remote place in the world from a major landmass. Long-haul flights are normal for us. 2 week WDW trips are normal for us and we love the parks because nothing like that exists here. I would never take an island vacation

 

[gmi3804]

Hawaii is the most remote place in the world from a major landmass. Long-haul flights are normal for us. 2 week WDW trips are normal for us and we love the parks because nothing like that exists here. I would never take an island vacation

I always wondered where people who live in HI consider exotic. Detroit?!

(Apologies to Detroiters.)

 

[Brian Noble]

We pretty much don't go to Hawaii unless we are staying for two weeks, for the same reason. Our next trip is three weeks.

 

[CVG]

No doubt, competitively priced contracts are moving fast but they still make up a small percentage of overall market. I think buyers also need to come to reality, that many sellers probably don’t HAVETO sell, especially below a certain threshold. I know of plenty of people, who have just taken down their listings because they would rather keep it and use it, than to get lowballed, which also accounts to the drop in inventory that you mentioned. It’s certainly a buyer’s market. But the sky isn’t falling and buyers shouldn’t expect sellers to be giving their contracts away below “market“ value, whatever that may be.

It's just a market. Nothing more. Nothing less. The price is the price.

 

[DonMacGregor]

So nice to live in So Cal. Pretty equidistant to both HI and FL. Growing up here and having DL literally in our back yard, HI was always our vacation destination. Even as a DL CM for over 10 years, and with one sister celebrating 30 years with Disney, FL never really held much appeal until I visited MK during a business trip 6 years ago (although both of my sisters had visited FL as well as DLP prior to me). Now, we hit WDW twice a year, AND continue our HI visits (and may increase them with more Aulani trips). As a result, we maybe do 1/2 to 2/3 of our WDW days in a park/parks, and the rest are resort days.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

It's just a market. Nothing more. Nothing less. The price is the price.

I couldn’t agree more. So many buyers are complaining that sellers are disconnected from reality, thinking the prices should be rock bottom. The “market” price is when two parties can agree on a price. And often times, it’s somewhere in the middle, and not the outliers.

 

[SleeplessInTO]

Exactly. Market price is simply what someone is willing to pay for it.

I think people who bought into DVC when they first sold a resort (whether that’s OKW or BWV) are willing to negotiate more on the price per point. Even selling at $80/pt for Boardwalk for someone that bought direct from Disney in 1996 may not be a bad deal. Maybe they want out of paying the dues. Someone that bought Boardwalk direct from Disney two years ago may have a hard time agreeing to even $120/pt.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

So nice to live in So Cal. Pretty equidistant to both HI and FL. Growing up here and having DL literally in our back yard, HI was always our vacation destination. Even as a DL CM for over 10 years, and with one sister celebrating 30 years with Disney, FL never really held much appeal until I visited MK during a business trip 6 years ago (although both of my sisters had visited FL as well as DLP prior to me). Now, we hit WDW twice a year, AND continue our HI visits (and may increase them with more Aulani trips). As a result, we maybe do 1/2 to 2/3 of our WDW days in a park/parks, and the rest are resort days.

This is our view almost everyday and my wife would rather live in Fullerton. The grass is always greener! I too wish we lived in SoCal sometimes for all the reasons you just said.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Exactly. Market price is simply what someone is willing to pay for it.

I think people who bought into DVC when they first sold a resort (whether that’s OKW or BWV) are willing to negotiate more on the price per point. Even selling at $80/pt for Boardwalk for someone that bought direct from Disney in 1996 may not be a bad deal. Maybe they want out of paying the dues. Someone that bought Boardwalk direct from Disney two years ago may have a hard time agreeing to even $120/pt.

I honestly think some of the buyer incredulity, particularly on this forum, relates in some extent to the whole "exit strategy", ROI mindset that many have. By that I mean, there are so many people on here who stubbornly refuse to look at DVC as purely sunk cost and who absolutely cannot envision holding on to their points without some ability to exit DVC at or above their initial buy-in.

For those people, a seller who isn't crawling out of their skin to sell their points just because of the market downturn must be crazy or an idiot.