I'm sure the event would sell out just as quickly as the cruise.
Maybe.
The cruises are very popular but the difference I see is that the member cruises only include a modest upcharge over the price of a normal cruise, and that's pretty easy to justify given the included gratuities, stateroom gifts, special guests, etc.
The member homecoming wouldn't just be a $50 add-on to the normal cost of an annual pass.
Given the direction Disney has gone with prices, a $250 passholder price for the 2004 homecoming equates to $400+ in 2012 and beyond. Yes there is value but is it enough to convince folks to spend that sort of money? Your typical family of 4 already has park tickets and can spend dozens of hours in the parks over the course of a week. EMH nights are offered at no additional charge.
How many of those families are going to splurge another $1600+ for a couple late nights in the parks, some exclusive meals and free gifts?
It's great for attendees that the parks were so sparsely populated. But not so good in relation to actually covering the cost of putting on the event.
Again, I do think there is value...I just don't know that it's enough value (above and beyond what parks tickets provide) to reach the critical mass necessary for such an event to be a financial success. Of course, there are about 2.5 times as many villas at WDW today as there were in 2004 so that certainly works in their favor.
How's that for waffling?
For DVC the main hurdle with such an event is that they have to commit to it regardless of member response. Assume they set prices and need 10,000 attendees just to break even. If they only get 5,000, DVC would be forced to absorb a substantial loss. Some of the costs are variable and would change with the number of participants but most of the costs are fixed. The expense of paying for the late park nights, reserving dining venues, booking celebrities and more won't vary much with the number of attendees.