Would you use and Alt DVC TS model to address 2042 issue

[bookwormde]

Would you use and Alt DVC TS model to address 2042 issue


Ok we all know that DVD has to find a way to manage the 2042 expiration issue. DVC and the majority of TSs are deed based products, but there are an increasing number of non deed pre-purchased vacation options.

So if DVD offered blocks of points, such as 200 points a year for 5 years, and if it could be at a specific resort with 11 month priority, banking, borrowing and all the other facilities that deeded owners have now, would you consider this for any of the 2042 resorts when they expire.

I am thinking that these would include prepaid maintenance and in today's $ would be about $12pt/year or $60/pt for 5 years worth

Obviously since there is no deed these would not be financeable, and would also need a modified POS assuming that DVD would be selling typical deeded DVC TSs at the same time

 

[skippytx]

I don't think your pricing is anywhere close to reality. Dues for a 2042 resort will be way north of 12 dollars a point by the time 2042 rolls around. I'd be thinking in your scenario points would be in the 25 to 30 dollar/ yr range if not more. Depends on what they do with hotel room rates. DVC only looks this attractive because of the incredible pace hotel room rates have gone up.

I don't know how they're going to handle it, and I'm not really sure that I care. I just turned 39, and 22 years from now I'll be 61 and focusing on retirement. I'm not going to care what they do with those resorts. Speculation is pointless, because the people that will ultimately decide what to do are probably in high school right now. The smart move is to sit on the properties, refurbish them and sell them as new 50 year contracts. DVD makes somewhere north of 60% profit on their properties, they can afford to float a property for a year or two before they sell it.

My BLT points are good until I'm 79 years old, and that's if I keep them the entire time. I don't worry about leaving them to my kids, if they want to buy into DVC they can. It's a small chance I even keep them for the next 10 years much less the next 50. After our most recent trip, I'm lightly kicking the idea around of just selling the points as I'd basically get 100% of my buy in capital back after fees and commission. 3 years of trips for the cost of dues isn't a bad deal at all.

 

[bookwormde]

Yes my numbers are in today's dollars not 2042 dollars

With about 20 million points it will take between 8 and 15 years to sell all those points depending on the strength of the market at 100K to 200K points per month so that why the issue is so significant

 

[_auroraborealis_]

But you are also assuming similar travel patterns and economics as today, and all indicators suggest such assumptions to be unrealistic.

 

[E2ME2]

But you are also assuming similar travel patterns and economics as today, and all indicators suggest such assumptions to be unrealistic.

What are the expected changes in travel patterns and economics?
And where do you get those projections?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

What are the expected changes in travel patterns and economics?
And where do you get those projections?

There are not good projections for those things, but there is other science that suggests changes are inevitable, especially in a state like Florida given its shorelines.

Ex: https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/multimedia/projected-sea-level-rise-and-flooding-2050

https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-48947573
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51097309
Significant changes in temperature levels and shorelines will have resulting changes in economic conditions and travel. While models vary considerably, you have to work quite hard to find anyone with strong scientific and academic backgrounds in the study of these phenomena who thinks changes aren't occurring.

 

[Sandisw]

I would not, and my solution to the 2042 problem with my BWV points is selling them now..sold one in October and other on ths market now.

Replaced one with RIV, giving us 28 additional years and hope to buy BLT when BWV sells which gives us 18 more years with that one,

 

[Deb & Bill]

I don't care about 2042. I'll be long dead or at least way too old to go to WDW. I'll be 91 when OKW and BRV expire.