Would you pay to have resale points be unrestricted?

[Bearval]

Although no guarantee of the future, ROFR is reassuring that there will likely be a floor to the value of resales. Can't say the same of other traditional timeshares.

DVC has been changing that for years now by trying to make resale an inferior product and with the latest change ( resale can only stay at home resort) I think they have finally succeeded. When RIV is sold out and the all resale buyers start finding out they cant even get the room they want for the dates they want the floor for restricted resorts will plummet. My guess is that it will be less than half of what direct goes for. DVC wont have to use ROFR, they will just buy the ones back in bankruptcy that were financed by a 3rd party where the people just walked away from them or stopped paying the maintenance fees.

 

[Docwheeze]

DVC has been changing that for years now by trying to make resale an inferior product and with the latest change ( resale can only stay at home resort) I think they have finally succeeded. When RIV is sold out and the all resale buyers start finding out they cant even get the room they want for the dates they want the floor for restricted resorts will plummet. My guess is that it will be less than half of what direct goes for. DVC wont have to use ROFR, they will just buy the ones back in bankruptcy that were financed by a 3rd party where the people just walked away from them or stopped paying the maintenance fees.

Conversely, wouldn't those contracts with unrestricted points maintain or increase in resale value in this situation?

 

[tjkraz]

DVC has been changing that for years now by trying to make resale an inferior product and with the latest change ( resale can only stay at home resort) I think they have finally succeeded. When RIV is sold out and the all resale buyers start finding out they cant even get the room they want for the dates they want the floor for restricted resorts will plummet. My guess is that it will be less than half of what direct goes for. DVC wont have to use ROFR, they will just buy the ones back in bankruptcy that were financed by a 3rd party where the people just walked away from them or stopped paying the maintenance fees.

I doubt it will play out exactly that way.

Those purchasing resale should be among the most informed buyers. Few will dive into a resort like Riviera without understanding the limitations.

Restricted resale buyers are still competing with the same population in the 11-7 month window. Trips planned on shorter notice will be more difficult, of course. While we don't have data on how DVC owners behave, I suspect most begin their trip planning well inside of that 11-7 month window.

There will always be some consumer-driven price floor on a DVC resort, even if it takes renters to prop up the market. We're still talking at Walt Disney World Deluxe accommodations, obtainable at a fraction of rack rate. As prices of Disney deluxe hotel rooms creep closer and closer to $1000 per night, and DVC points rise over $200, there will always be people looking for a DVC bargain even if it means staying at one resort.

Using your hypothetical pricing of "less than half of direct", suspect there would be significant interest in Riviera points at >$100 today while DVC is selling at ~$200. And that will still be true as DVC's direct prices rise to $250 and beyond.

If someone does buy into a restricted resort and later discover it doesn't suit their tastes, they should be able to re-sell for a comparable rate. The greatest amount of value is lost when buying direct. Unless a buyer dramatically overpays for the resale, its value should remain stable or increase like other resales.

 

[Docwheeze]

Adults still flock to Las Vegas because of the unique variety of places to "play" relative to other gambling opportunities. I guess DVC holds a similar allure for families and restricted points will detract from that value in the future. True, some people have a favorite hotel in both places but most like to change it up at least once in a while.

 

[starry_solo]

If Disney did that (which I don't think they would), I would expect Disney not to offer it at a flat fee, but instead, do it based upon what the individual owner bought at resale and what Disney sold that resort for at direct prices at the time the owner purchased at resale.

 

[J-Dog]

I also don't think that DVD would entertain this scenario, but as a RIV owner, it gets me wondering what that option would do to resale prices.

Theoretically, they might increase in price because the ability for those points to be unrestricted is more desirable for buyers than those resale points currently are.

But, on the other hand, the resale buyer would have to pay even more on top to make those points unrestricted, so it might actually suppress resale prices.

 

[Bearval]

Conversely, wouldn't those contracts with unrestricted points maintain or increase in resale value in this situation?

That is already happening with the unrestricted resorts.

 

[chalee94]

Although no guarantee of the future, ROFR is reassuring that there will likely be a floor to the value of resales. Can't say the same of other traditional timeshares.

I'm guessing you are new to DVC.

A lot of newbies see the correlation with DVC's ROFR and higher resale prices than other timeshares and assume causation but it doesn't work that way.

Posters who have been around remember when DVC dropped ROFR during the Great Recession - Disney had no interest in getting stuck with inventory that they couldn't sell.

What actually happens is that demand starts to increase ---> Disney spots the trend before most sellers and amps up their ROFR efforts ---> sellers and brokers notice the ROFR and ask for higher prices. But demand is the fundamental driver of the higher prices, not ROFR.

If OKW is worth $100 per pt to me, I might offer $102 to pass ROFR, sure. But if sellers were asking $150 per pt, I would drop out of the market rather than increase my offer. A buyer who offers $150 per pt to "beat ROFR" was realistically willing to spend around that anyway. That's one theory for the research Brian discussed, that ROFR reduces bidders as more potential buyers walk away from purchasing when ROFR is involved and look for alternatives.

Put a different way, if you needed to sell and could only find a buyer for OKW at $75 per pt, that is what you would get. Disney can decide if it's worth it to them to step into the buyer's shoes and take the deal from them, but as the seller, you'd have to take the $75 per pt. (Last year, Disney did offer in the $80s per pt direct to owners when OKW was being ROFRed for around $110, but those offers have been 1) very rare and 2) still pretty bad.)

But the notion of ROFR being "reassuring" is naive. If things hit the fan and there is a demand shock, Disney will probably have already dropped ROFR to see how bad things get with zero interest in "propping up your resale values." That's why it's important to do your homework and understand what has happened in the past...

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-august-20-report/

Return of the Buy Back
August saw the return of Disney exercising their right of first refusal again. After 4 straight months of no buy backs, Disney bought back 22 contracts sold through DVCRM in August. Those resorts bought back included Saratoga Springs (10), Grand Floridian (6), Old Key West (5) and Vero Beach (1). Although buyers in the market may not want to see buy backs returning, it is at least a positive sign of things returning back to normal.

During the 4 months of no buy backs, DVC resale prices already rebounded back to their all-time highs. It will be interesting to see with buy backs returning, if resale prices will increase even more. Historically, Disney has always been the biggest purchaser of DVC resale contracts via ROFR. In 2019, for example, Disney bought back 16.3% of the contracts sold through DVCRM. What has been astonishing is that without Disney buying back contracts for 4 months, prices climbed on heavy buyer demand.

 

[Docwheeze]

I'm guessing you are new to DVC.

A lot of newbies see the correlation with DVC's ROFR and higher resale prices than other timeshares and assume causation but it doesn't work that way.

Posters who have been around remember when DVC dropped ROFR during the Great Recession - Disney had no interest in getting stuck with inventory that they couldn't sell.

What actually happens is that demand starts to increase ---> Disney spots the trend before most sellers and amps up their ROFR efforts ---> sellers and brokers notice the ROFR and ask for higher prices. But demand is the fundamental driver of the higher prices, not ROFR.

If OKW is worth $100 per pt to me, I might offer $102 to pass ROFR, sure. But if sellers were asking $150 per pt, I would drop out of the market rather than increase my offer. A buyer who offers $150 per pt to "beat ROFR" was realistically willing to spend around that anyway. That's one theory for the research Brian discussed, that ROFR reduces bidders as more potential buyers walk away from purchasing when ROFR is involved and look for alternatives.

Put a different way, if you needed to sell and could only find a buyer for OKW at $75 per pt, that is what you would get. Disney can decide if it's worth it to them to step into the buyer's shoes and take the deal from them, but as the seller, you'd have to take the $75 per pt. (Last year, Disney did offer in the $80s per pt direct to owners when OKW was being ROFRed for around $110, but those offers have been 1) very rare and 2) still pretty bad.)

But the notion of ROFR being "reassuring" is naive. If things hit the fan and there is a demand shock, Disney will probably have already dropped ROFR to see how bad things get with zero interest in "propping up your resale values." That's why it's important to do your homework and understand what has happened in the past...

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-august-20-report/

Yes chalee94, I am a newbie. In fact, I would like to thank everyone on these boards for educating me about DVC over the last month since first learning of it while vacationing at Aulani.

I took advantages of some other incentives and recently bought 250 points to at VGF with 3 separate contracts for 150, 50, and 50 each. That was based on advice from these boards.

I also went back to the beginning of this thread in May 2021 and looked at the opinions of the educated DVC members here which predicted much higher prices for VGF2. When they released very attractive incentives for members below the resale prices, the members here mostly jumped at the opportunity evidenced by the high sales volume. The incentives were not nearly as good for new members like myself but still relatively attractive historically speaking. Additionally, understanding the value of unrestricted points at VGF and small contracts for resale also provides some flexibility if we ever want to sell. So thanks again to members like yourself.

The reassurance stems from the lower spread seen between direct and resale pricing which seems smaller for VGF relative to other resorts. As with other asset sales, the market could easily change and the value could plummet. DVD watches the markets as close or not closer than anyone else so they could use ROFR to influence the market either way.

Finally, I learned from this thread to buy where you want to stay. We have a young son who would ideally like to be close to MK and ride the monorail. We are also fans of the classic beauty of VGF as we live close to the Hotel del Coronado in San Diego. The variety of restaurants and the anticipated "freshening" of the resort are also positives.

So to all of you, thank you so much for enlightening us about a vacation option that will bring many years of magical memories to our family. This is the best "investment" we could possibly make. Thank you. Take care.

 

[Bearval]

I'm guessing you are new to DVC.

A lot of newbies see the correlation with DVC's ROFR and higher resale prices than other timeshares and assume causation but it doesn't work that way.

Posters who have been around remember when DVC dropped ROFR during the Great Recession - Disney had no interest in getting stuck with inventory that they couldn't sell.

What actually happens is that demand starts to increase ---> Disney spots the trend before most sellers and amps up their ROFR efforts ---> sellers and brokers notice the ROFR and ask for higher prices. But demand is the fundamental driver of the higher prices, not ROFR.

If OKW is worth $100 per pt to me, I might offer $102 to pass ROFR, sure. But if sellers were asking $150 per pt, I would drop out of the market rather than increase my offer. A buyer who offers $150 per pt to "beat ROFR" was realistically willing to spend around that anyway. That's one theory for the research Brian discussed, that ROFR reduces bidders as more potential buyers walk away from purchasing when ROFR is involved and look for alternatives.

Put a different way, if you needed to sell and could only find a buyer for OKW at $75 per pt, that is what you would get. Disney can decide if it's worth it to them to step into the buyer's shoes and take the deal from them, but as the seller, you'd have to take the $75 per pt. (Last year, Disney did offer in the $80s per pt direct to owners when OKW was being ROFRed for around $110, but those offers have been 1) very rare and 2) still pretty bad.)

But the notion of ROFR being "reassuring" is naive. If things hit the fan and there is a demand shock, Disney will probably have already dropped ROFR to see how bad things get with zero interest in "propping up your resale values." That's why it's important to do your homework and understand what has happened in the past...

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-august-20-report/

I agree, DVC only steps in AFTER the price has been settled on. Less demand from the public equals lower resale prices , higher demand higher prices. ROFR has no real impact.

 

[BeachClub2014]

ROFR has no real impact.

ROFR has a definite impact on resale behavior and pricing, just as supply and demand have an impact. Resale contracts are priced at what the seller believes to be a good price and buyers try to get the best value for their money while skirting with the ROFR floor that DVC will use in determining whether to take it themselves.

I spend a lot of time reading all of the comments and strategies in the ROFR threads and the impact of ROFR becomes apparent.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I agree, DVC only steps in AFTER the price has been settled on. Less demand from the public equals lower resale prices , higher demand higher prices. ROFR has no real impact.

You portray resale as if Disney is entirely uninvested (if not actively engaged) in the process prior to submission for ROFR. Sure, a buyer and seller can “negotiate” back and forth ‘til they’re both exhausted and finally reach some compromise, entirely free from Disney’s participation. However, regardless of how much negotiation (or lack thereof) has occurred, there is a price below which Disney will not allow the sale to pass, which will render all of that negotiation completely moot. Disney doesn’t “need” to step in before ROFR because they are the ultimate arbiter of price. Like a hockey referee letting a fight continue, at the end of the day, he’s going to decide who sits in the box and for how long. Who wins the fight doesn’t matter.

Below that magical number, it is Disney that “settles” on the price by setting their ROFR floor, entirely independent of anything the seller and potential buyer can do. If Disney has the ultimate, unilateral say in which contracts it takes and which it allows to pass, and at what price, then the whole idea that resale is a free market with no outside influences just doesn’t carry water.

 

[J-Dog]

I'm guessing you are new to DVC.

A lot of newbies see the correlation with DVC's ROFR and higher resale prices than other timeshares and assume causation but it doesn't work that way.

Posters who have been around remember when DVC dropped ROFR during the Great Recession - Disney had no interest in getting stuck with inventory that they couldn't sell.

What actually happens is that demand starts to increase ---> Disney spots the trend before most sellers and amps up their ROFR efforts ---> sellers and brokers notice the ROFR and ask for higher prices. But demand is the fundamental driver of the higher prices, not ROFR.

If OKW is worth $100 per pt to me, I might offer $102 to pass ROFR, sure. But if sellers were asking $150 per pt, I would drop out of the market rather than increase my offer. A buyer who offers $150 per pt to "beat ROFR" was realistically willing to spend around that anyway. That's one theory for the research Brian discussed, that ROFR reduces bidders as more potential buyers walk away from purchasing when ROFR is involved and look for alternatives.

Put a different way, if you needed to sell and could only find a buyer for OKW at $75 per pt, that is what you would get. Disney can decide if it's worth it to them to step into the buyer's shoes and take the deal from them, but as the seller, you'd have to take the $75 per pt. (Last year, Disney did offer in the $80s per pt direct to owners when OKW was being ROFRed for around $110, but those offers have been 1) very rare and 2) still pretty bad.)

But the notion of ROFR being "reassuring" is naive. If things hit the fan and there is a demand shock, Disney will probably have already dropped ROFR to see how bad things get with zero interest in "propping up your resale values." That's why it's important to do your homework and understand what has happened in the past...

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-august-20-report/

This is a pretty condescending post. You can explain your opinion without acting arrogant about it.

ROFR has a definite impact on resale behavior and pricing, just as supply and demand have an impact. Resale contracts are priced at what the seller believes to be a good price and buyers try to get the best value for their money while skirting with the ROFR floor that DVC will use in determining whether to take it themselves.

I spend a lot of time reading all of the comments and strategies in the ROFR threads and the impact of ROFR becomes apparent.

Yes, I agree. ROFR absolutely has an impact on pricing.

 

[Docwheeze]

This is a pretty condescending post. You can explain your opinion without acting arrogant about it.

Yes, I agree. ROFR absolutely has an impact on pricing.

Hi J-Dog, it's OK from my perspective. Doubt he or she meant to be offensive as I am a newbie. I am just appreciative of all the opinions and info posted on these boards which allowed me to make the best decision in becoming a new member of DVC. So thanks again.

However, I still agree that the price and the process plays a role in deciding to buy direct or resale. It did for me.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

DVC has been changing that for years now by trying to make resale an inferior product and with the latest change ( resale can only stay at home resort) I think they have finally succeeded. When RIV is sold out and the all resale buyers start finding out they cant even get the room they want for the dates they want the floor for restricted resorts will plummet. My guess is that it will be less than half of what direct goes for. DVC wont have to use ROFR, they will just buy the ones back in bankruptcy that were financed by a 3rd party where the people just walked away from them or stopped paying the maintenance fees.

Agree. The resale restrictions have kept me from direct but for the right price I will buy resale there.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I know I’m Johnny come lately here but
Isn’t paying to have your points unrestricted called buying direct?

Those of us that bought direct paid to have our points unrestricted.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I know I’m Johnny come lately here but
Isn’t paying to have your points unrestricted called buying direct?

Those of us that bought direct paid to have our points unrestricted.

LOL, great point.

 

[Sandisw]

I know I’m Johnny come lately here but
Isn’t paying to have your points unrestricted called buying direct?

Those of us that bought direct paid to have our points unrestricted.

Technically, yes. But, DVD does have the ability, if they want, and including it in the RIV paperwork, to set up some type of program that gives resale buyers a chance to pay to end up with points good everywhere. Not sure that would ever happen, and if it did, I think it would not be cheap..

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Technically, yes. But, DVD does have the ability, if they want, and including it in the RIV paperwork, to set up some type of program that gives resale buyers a chance to pay to end up with points good everywhere. Not sure that would ever happen, and if it did, I think it would not be cheap..

Agree, but what’s is in it for Disney…..
Wouldn't that devalue the “direct” product?

 

[Sandisw]

Agree, but what’s is in it for Disney…..
Wouldn't that devalue the “direct” product?

I think it would be something that in the end, cost a buyer more than had they gone direct in the first place. But, there are ways DVD could do it that they might see it benefit them.

For example, I did buy RIV resale...$152..if I was given the chance to upgrade to direct points, I might consider it now. Probably should have done that to begin with but it was a $6K savings and I stay at RIV pretty much every trip as I split stay...

It could also be something like buy the same amount of direct points from us, and all your points will become eligible for use at other resorts. Or, they could even make it a fee to convert the points per reservation...similar to how DVC points can be turned into reservation points to book non DVC WDW hotels.

I do not see this program being something that makes buying resale first and then upgrading less expensive than just going direct. And, DVD would only do it if it made sense to do it.