I would guess real booking is 50-75% of the lock-offs get booked as a studio and a 1BR, so Disney "created 1.5-2%" more room with this. I believe that violates the terms
Sure but that reallocation actually seems to make sense to most people even if they didn’t like it. This one with what they did with 1 bedrooms just doesn’t make sense to me. Maybe you could elaborate on why you think the 1 bedroom move makes sense? Maybe if they only increased points on studios that would have made the gap between studio and 1 bedrooms smaller which would push more people from studios to 1 bedrooms? And that is not the push they were looking for?
I’m reluctant to pass any judgement whatsoever because I don’t have access to any of the underlying data. I don’t routinely check the online booking engine to see what’s reflected, and even if I did, all we can really glean is whether a villa type is fully booked (no availability) or not fully booked (some availability.)
We can’t tell if a villa typed is booked to 99% occupancy or 20% occupancy. We cannot tell how quickly rooms of different types are booking. We can’t see the underlying trends of Standard views vs Preferred views, seasonal changes in demand, weekdays vs weekends and so on.
As I look at the changes, these adjustments occurred almost across the board:
- Studios up
- Two Bedrooms down
- Adventure, Choice and Premier seasons up
- Magic and Dream seasons down
Oh, and there’s also a restriction that any given day can change by no more than 20% from year to year.
Since everything has to balance in the end, it’s very likely that some of the point assignments did not necessarily fall exactly where demand would dictate. As such, some of the One Bedroom rates may be set where they are just to get everything to balance. Those increases could be collateral damage of implementing the more urgent adjustments.
Beyond that, ask me for an opinion when the 2021 charts are released. Since some of the Studio changes are brushing up against the 20% cap, it’s possible that we see more changes the following year.
I knew 1 beds and studios were more expensive, I didn't realise they could increase the points on them to what they want, without balancing elsewhere. Neither did 99.9% of other people. If you did, congratulations, you were in a miniscule minority.I don't mean to be snarky here, I am genuinely asking. You say in all your extensive research you never saw a lock off premium mentioned. Did you not look at a point chart? It is clearly listed in the 2019 point charts that a studio and 1 bdrm require more points than a 2 bdrm.
I guess I am just confused about what the brouhaha is. Is the central issue that the lock off premium has been increased? Because from what I can tell it has always (or at least it currently exists in the 2019 point charts) existed, it just wasn't as bad as it will be in 2020.
Well, I just ran a bunch of numbers, and based on the numbers... Here's a specific relative impact increasing the lock-off premium. I did it for AKV Kidani...
Going into the numbers (2020 is a leap year so there is one more day and I ran the numbers with and without that day)
Given what I found
Kidani has 324 room - 60 2BR LO STD, 27 2BR dedicated STD, 109 2BR LO SAV, 112 2BR dedicated SAV, 2 GV std, 14 GV SAV (can range from 324 to 493 each night, possible 169 "premiums")
Using the point tables for 2019 and 2220
2019 2020(366 days) 2020(minus 2/29)
Maximum points available (all 2BR LO booked as studio and 1BR) 5953838 6113649 6096069
Minimum points available (all 2BR LO booked as 2BR) 5593311 5574381 5558469
Breakeven (88% S/1BR 12% 2BR) 5636574 5639093 5622981
50% S/1BR 50% 2BR 5773575 5844015 (+ 1.2%) 5827269 (+0.9%)
75% S/1BR 25% 2BR 5863706 5978832 (+2.0%) 5961669 (+1.7%)
I would guess real booking is 50-75% of the lock-offs get booked as a studio and a 1BR, so Disney "created 1.5-2%" more room with this. I believe that violates the terms
Tjkraz already did it for SSR in the 2020 thread. If memory serves me right, it's around 450k points created out of thin air.And how much has been created at SSR Dave where all the 1 beds and studios are lockoff? Could you do that one? I'd guess at least 75% are booked as 1 beds and studios.
Incorrect. Both the DVC Public offering statement and Florida timeshare statutes state that Lockoff villas are to be counted as Two Bedrooms for purposes of balancing the point charts to ownership.
In Exhibit G, they use "in its sole, absolute and unfettered discretion" a few times:I don't agree, the points differential is in the POS which is already a premium and they list a number of places where they say reallocation can happen unilaterally, without input, unfettered, etc. You can't combat people's assumptions with a timeshare. While the exact change is not spelled out, they hit you multiple times in the POS that changes can occur and in some cases, shall occur.
As Tim noted, BWV has more protections than most with both 1BR and studio dedicated villas.So, for a resort like BWV, I guess the sky's the limit then because all t he 2 beds are lock offs. They can just eventually have a point chart with a million more points than they sold ?
There has to be something that prevents this.
We don't know the % now and won't after this is done. Disney considers this proprietary. But it doesn't matter where it is or ends up in total numbers, only the relative % before and after. There's no doubt 2 BR % will go up, the only question is how much and will it compensate for the other changes.Well, I just ran a bunch of numbers, and based on the numbers... Here's a specific relative impact increasing the lock-off premium. I did it for AKV Kidani...
Going into the numbers (2020 is a leap year so there is one more day and I ran the numbers with and without that day)
Given what I found
Kidani has 324 room - 60 2BR LO STD, 27 2BR dedicated STD, 109 2BR LO SAV, 112 2BR dedicated SAV, 2 GV std, 14 GV SAV (can range from 324 to 493 each night, possible 169 "premiums")
Using the point tables for 2019 and 2220
2019 2020(366 days) 2020(minus 2/29)
Maximum points available (all 2BR LO booked as studio and 1BR) 5953838 6113649 6096069
Minimum points available (all 2BR LO booked as 2BR) 5593311 5574381 5558469
Breakeven (88% S/1BR 12% 2BR) 5636574 5639093 5622981
50% S/1BR 50% 2BR 5773575 5844015 (+ 1.2%) 5827269 (+0.9%)
75% S/1BR 25% 2BR 5863706 5978832 (+2.0%) 5961669 (+1.7%)
I would guess real booking is 50-75% of the lock-offs get booked as a studio and a 1BR, so Disney "created 1.5-2%" more room with this. I believe that violates the terms
It doesn't matter if you or anyone else understood this was the case, what matters is what the legal interpretation of the state statutes, state rules and POS says. It's clear that any limitations, wherever they end up, are to the non locked off villa only other than the 20% year over year restriction.I knew 1 beds and studios were more expensive, I didn't realise they could increase the points on them to what they want, without balancing elsewhere. Neither did 99.9% of other people. If you did, congratulations, you were in a miniscule minority.
I don't have a problem with 1 beds and studios being more expensive separately, I have no problem with points balancing to meet demand and supply. What I'm really concerned about, by someone who not only has access to Skier Pete's charts, other charts and my own weekly observarions is this suggestion that DVCMC can increase studios and 1 beds basically to what they want.
I simply cannot understand why they'd put 1 beds up in the interests of members. Looking at the SSR chart, there is significantly more increase than decrease from what I can tell.
What I was aware of was the regular questioning that 1 beds were already too expensive- which just got worse.
It is obvious that putting studios and 1 beds up could financially benefit DVD. Not saying this is why it's been done, but I'm still waiting for the explanation and data and an explanation why this was purposely not dealt with at the members meeting.
What I also can't understand is why all members are not highly concerned about the fact that the 1 beds and studios forming lockoff (all of them at SSR) could just be increased every single year with no corresponding decrease. This is extremely concerning to me and I'd like to see assurances from DVCMC as to what their intentions are in this regard.
The FL statue quoted is clearly defining a unit (villa to DVC, not the same "unit" as in the POS) as all lockout's being counted as a single unit. It gives the developer more flexibility but no additional restrictions to do so.
Only the dedicated unit, the lockoff is counted as a single unit in its entirety as I understand it and as quoted in the statute info you posted.What do you mean? Is a studio part of a 2br lockoff a timeshare unit or only a dedicated studios is a timeshare unit, for the FL law?
We are an adult couple so really have no reason for more than a studio. I could see a 1br maybe but either way we would never need a 2br or treehouse or bungalow.... etc.
With that said, why would a 2br person want a studio/1br instead of just booking a 2br? Perhaps that is part of the equation here I’m missing if the point is to push more 2br bookings. I book studios so am obviously not the one they’re trying to influence here but am adversely affected. Simply trying to understand it a bit better.
I've no problem some going down, some up if it's justified.DVC might be trying to push people who have been cramming 5-6 people into the studios or 1 bedrooms. I know for my family of 5 that we specifically wanted 2 bedrooms which was much cheaper than buying 2 hotel rooms and you get a full kitchen and living room included, which is much better that staying in hotel rooms.
This would also create less wear and tear on the rooms, since fewer people would be in them.
I know a lot of people were hit hard by this reallocation, but for my family it was a nice relief from having to use 350-500 points for a single week during Magic Season. So it has benefited some members. Especially since most people who go during Magic Season travel with kids during school vacations, and the airlines jack up the prices on flights those weeks as well.
That being said, I would have thought that all the Fall Frenzy months would have been molded into a season just below Magic Season, and they would have lowered the 1 bedrooms to push people to those from the studios.
Thanks, hadn't spotted that. Could be C$11m manufactured out of thin air then on rentals. Nice work if you can get it.Tjkraz already did it for SSR in the 2020 thread. If memory serves me right, it's around 450k points created out of thin air.
I have found this:
http://www.leg.state.fl.us/statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&URL=0700-0799/0721/0721.html
I think this is the statute applicable to DVC.
It's a gigantic document, so I haven't read it word by word but I searched for keywords. Searching for "lock", I found only this definition:
“Timeshare unit” means an accommodation of a timeshare plan which is divided into timeshare periods. Any timeshare unit in which a door or doors connecting two or more separate rooms are capable of being locked to create two or more private dwellings shall only constitute one timeshare unit for purposes of this chapter, unless the timeshare instrument provides that timeshare interests may be separately conveyed in such locked-off portions.
If I read this correctly, a Grand villa which has multiple rooms separated by doors is considered a single Timeshare Unit. However the last sentence is not clear to me, how should it be interpreted? The key word is "conveyed".
It could see two possible meanings:
Which one is true? This definition is important, because in the rest of the document they only use "Timeshare Unit" and they never use the word "lock-off" or "locked-off" again.
- if a bigger unit can be separated in locked-off portions, then all of them are Timeshare Units
- if a bigger unit can be separated in locked-off portions, then the developer can apply the definition of Timeshare Unit to each locked-off portion, but he is not required to
...
Only the dedicated unit, the lockoff is counted as a single unit in its entirety as I understand it and as quoted in the statute info you posted.
You have chosen a great example in this case. While GVs in all DVC Resorts do have doors between various rooms in the villa, the GV has only ONE entrance to the entire villa (SSR is an exception to that where the upstairs does have outside access to make that floor HCA accessible).
It sounds like you are suggesting that any interior door makes that area a separate Timeshare Unit.
Using the logic applied to your GV example above, all Studios (Dedicated or Lockoff) could be reserved as a 2 room villa due to the pesky door connecting two or more separate rooms.
In ALL Lockoff 2BR villas regardless of the resort each Studio and 1BR component will have an exterior door (in addition to the interior connecting doors). Each will also have independent access to a kitchen area (either mini-kitchen for the Studio/2nd BR component or the main full kitchen for the 1BR component).
None of the GVs have accessory kitchens for the 2nd and 3rd BRs you are trying to declare as three 1BR villas.
It is easy to single out a paragraph from a 'gigantic document' and apply it to a principle you wish to use to defend a position, but the interpretation of that paragraph still needs to be logical.
Only the dedicated unit, the lockoff is counted as a single unit in its entirety as I understand it and as quoted in the statute info you posted.
That is how I interpreted it also.