With Aulani resale skyrocketing...

[sethschroeder]

I think you’re overestimating the impact of the 2042 expiration dates.

22% reduction in points and 20% of rooms expire at WDW, all attached in resorts close to parks.

Then in 2054 SSR goes off the map which has a huge pool of rooms and points again making it more difficult.

All the math points towards less movement, less reasons for people to shift at 7 months, and a smaller more restricted number of options after 2042.

Impossible to get to WDW? No but much different and more difficult than today imo.

Point is there are lots of questions and having AUL for WDW stays isn't exactly the way to go when AKV, OKW extended, and SSR are not really much different in prices plus will all have lower MFs long term plus don't deal with HI timeshare law (which I hear people complain about but don't know much myself).

 

[Paul Stupin]

22% reduction in points and 20% of rooms expire at WDW, all attached in resorts close to parks.

Then in 2054 SSR goes off the map which has a huge pool of rooms and points again making it more difficult.

All the math points towards less movement, less reasons for people to shift at 7 months, and a smaller more restricted number of options after 2042.

Impossible to get to WDW? No but much different and more difficult than today imo.

Point is there are lots of questions and having AUL for WDW stays isn't exactly the way to go when AKV, OKW extended, and SSR are not really much different in prices plus will all have lower MFs long term plus don't deal with HI timeshare law (which I hear people complain about but don't know much myself).

Agreed. I think using Aulani for network points and DVC stays is a bad idea, especially if you’re buying now. The high maintenance fees are also a prohibiting factor.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Is it only a few weeks that Disney makes available to DVC members first? In that case, I’ll probably be wrong. In any case, I think DLT will be the fastest selling DVC resort to date.

If DLT sells out in a few weeks then they priced it wrong.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I don’t think DLT will sell out too quickly. We love one bedrooms, and it won’t have any. Also, looking at its location today, half of it will be facing a somewhat bland Anaheim residential area. It will also be part of the Disneyland Hotel complex, which is nice enough, but not really on par with the offerings at WDW. That said, Disneyland and California Adventure are both a ton of fun, and if I didn’t live in LA, I‘d probably be more excited about it.

 

[Great3]

If DLT sells out in a few weeks then they priced it wrong.

This, LOL!!!!

I only own 2 Aulani contracts. While I agree, don't buy Aulani to use primary in WDW, it's fine for use in Hawaii. If you want to go to WDW often, than buy a WDW resort.

Even with the surge in AUL resale, RIV resale is still higher despite the resale restrictions, so it doesn't seem to matter to RIV resale buyers, so that would make RIV direct better.

Great3

 

[KTownRaider]

Also, looking at its location today, half of it will be facing a somewhat bland Anaheim residential area.

I think you just defined 'standard' vs 'preferred' in DLT's future point chart.

 

[Lee Matthews]

When DVC property contracts expire, they’re unlikely to just start tearing them down are they? Could they not do full returns and then sell them in new 50 year contracts?

 

[corgi_monster]

"The largest increase is for Vero Beach Resort, where the dues are increasing by over 10%. The smallest increase is 0.27% at Aulani."

Aulani is a very young structure so this is not surprising. The cost and frequency of repair/renovation for ocean resorts in Hawaii starts to increase rapidly over the decades. Between the 20-30 year mark, I would expect the dues to skyrocket. I’ve worked on the renovation of the Waikiki Sheraton, Royal Hawaiian, Outrigger, etc. and the extent of work (and money) they need to spend every decade is absolutely mind blowing.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Aulani is a very young structure so this is not surprising. The cost and frequency of repair/renovation for ocean resorts in Hawaii starts to increase rapidly over the decades. Between the 20-30 year mark, I would expect the dues to skyrocket. I’ve worked on the renovation of the Waikiki Sheraton, Royal Hawaiian, Outrigger, etc. and the extent of work (and money) they need to spend every decade is absolutely mind blowing.

people from the mainland don’t understand the high cost of construction labor in Hawaii. It typically costs 3 to 4 times more due to strict labor laws and labor shortage.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

To be honest, I think the best option is neither and wait for VGF2 as it shouldn't have resale restrictions. If limited to those two, I would probably pick Aulani though because I'm fearful what the resale restrictions will do to Riviera in 10-20 years.

Aulani is a very young structure so this is not surprising. The cost and frequency of repair/renovation for ocean resorts in Hawaii starts to increase rapidly over the decades. Between the 20-30 year mark, I would expect the dues to skyrocket. I’ve worked on the renovation of the Waikiki Sheraton, Royal Hawaiian, Outrigger, etc. and the extent of work (and money) they need to spend every decade is absolutely mind blowing.

This should already be considered in the dues as you are paying into reserves for future expenses along with paying current expenses. Sometimes the reserve studies get it wrong but it shouldn't change too drastically.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I think you just defined 'standard' vs 'preferred' in DLT's future point chart.

Actually, they’ll probably plant a bunch of very tall trees and call it “pool view,” since that’s what you will see if you’re facing the residential area and look straight down.

 

[gskywalker]

I am very happy with my Aul purchase in April for stay around points. With that said, I wouldn't buy them for that purpose now at the $110 plus that they are going for. At these type of prices there is nothing to be saved to make up for buying points that you won't be able to use until 7 months. If I could buy another contract for $90 a point or less I would consider it and if I got it close to my $70 pp I would for sure buy another contract. I have put some lowball bids on a few Aul contracts over the past 2 months but they keep going above $110 pp. We are using our Aul points this year at BWV and CCV. If it means over the last 5 to 10 years of the contract there aren't many places to use the points and we(or 4 kids) can't use the points I will hope to rent them out.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I am very happy with my Aul purchase in April for stay around points. With that said, I wouldn't buy them for that purpose now at the $110 plus that they are going for. At these type of prices there is nothing to be saved to make up for buying points that you won't be able to use until 7 months. If I could buy another contract for $90 a point or less I would consider it and if I got it close to my $70 pp I would for sure buy another contract. I have put some lowball bids on a few Aul contracts over the past 2 months but they keep going above $110 pp. We are using our Aul points this year at BWV and CCV. If it means over the last 5 to 10 years of the contract there aren't many places to use the points and we(or 4 kids) can't use the points I will hope to rent them out.

Frankly, even though you got an excellent deal on those Aulani points, I still wouldn’t have bought them even at that price for stay around points. For us, the short term savings on points tends to get spent and absorbed into our general finances, and certainly doesn’t get banked for future trips. As the years go by, the purchase price almost gets forgotten. That leaves the maintenance fees, which for Aulani, as we all know, are incredibly high. And that lasts forever, or certainly as long as you own the points.

You‘re also giving up the 11 month window, which for WDW will only grow increasingly significant over the years. When we initially bought, I didn’t realize that there is far from unlimited availability at 7 months. For us, it’s gotten trickier and more difficult to book the popular resorts for any decent amount of time, say a week or longer. Sometimes you can only get a day or two here and there.

Buyers might initially think that this doesn’t matter if they’re not currently travelling at any time other than the lowest peak periods. But, personally, we’ve found that tastes and preferred travel times can change over the years, and that the flexibility built into the system is a good thing. That’s a tough one to give up.

Anyway, of course that’s just my opinion, and of course everyone uses points differently! And we do love Aulani!!

 

[AlanBradley]

To be honest, I think the best option is neither and wait for VGF2 as it shouldn't have resale restrictions. If limited to those two, I would probably pick Aulani though because I'm fearful what the resale restrictions will do to Riviera in 10-20 years.


This should already be considered in the dues as you are paying into reserves for future expenses along with paying current expenses. Sometimes the reserve studies get it wrong but it shouldn't change too drastically.

How is it that Very Beach needed a 10% correction if thats the case ? (honestly asking)

It seems to me that whatever resorts they have large inventory for/are currently looking to sell(i.e. Riviera, Aulani and formerly CC) they keep the annual dues increase low to not discourage purchase.

 

[AlanBradley]

You‘re also giving up the 11 month window, which for WDW will only grow increasingly significant over the years.

This is exactly why we bought Riviera direct with limited fear of resale restrictions. In the future it seems likely that the 11 month window will be the only window for any stay more than a couple of days.

Also - the dues are the bulk of the cost of ownership, more so than the contract itself. And as many have said I don't see the dues increases at Aulani averaging less than Riviera over the course of the contract.

 

[T-i-double-guh-er]

That leaves the maintenance fees, which for Aulani, as we all know, are incredibly high. And that lasts forever, or certainly as long as you own the points.

Currently Aulani maintenance fees are less than Riviera and Old Key West (and much lower than Hilton Head, and especially Vero Beach). No guarantee what of what happen in the future, but right now Aulani dues are above average, but not really that high.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Currently Aulani maintenance fees are less than Riviera and Old Key West (and much lower than Hilton Head, and especially Vero Beach). No guarantee what of what happen in the future, but right now Aulani dues are above average, but not really that high.

Good point, but they’re on the higher end, and they can add up over the years. If I were looking for dirt cheap stay around points, I’d rather buy a cheaper SSR contract, or another WDW resort, even if it meant giving up savings on Aulani, where the 11 month window isn’t as relevant.

 

[CarolynFH]

When DVC property contracts expire, they’re unlikely to just start tearing them down are they? Could they not do full returns and then sell them in new 50 year contracts?

Yes, and many of us here think that’s exactly what they’ll do. I hope to be around to find out!

 

[corgi_monster]

people from the mainland don’t understand the high cost of construction labor in Hawaii. It typically costs 3 to 4 times more due to strict labor laws and labor shortage.

100%!!!

Not to mention cost delays from working on “Hawaiian time” lol *ahem ahem rail*

The company I was with back in 2007 bid on Aulani. (We lost.) Disney used mostly mainland-based consultants and a lot of the numbers didn’t look right. I wonder if that contributed to the dues fiasco?

 

[Aussie RJ]

It will also be part of the Disneyland Hotel complex, which is nice enough, but not really on par with the offerings at WDW

I'd argue the pool area with slides are better than any WDW DVC property (excluding BCV), then add Trader Sam's, Goofy's Kitchen (better than Chef Mickey's..just), and a short hop to Disney springs and both parks.