Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[Farro]

I don't know where we are supposed to post this type of stuff, so I'll just put here.

https://www.livescience.com/ebola-drug-remdesivir-promise-severe-covid-19-cases.html
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/resea...mdesivir-as-other-treatment-candidates-emerge
New news about it today - Gilead study of drug given to monkeys. Lends a little more ooomph to the U of C patients that took drug:

Remdesivir also showed promise in rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta) monkeys infected with the new coronavirus, according to a small, seven-day study that has yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal. Unlike the other studies, this research, done by the U.S. National Institutes of Health, had a control group.

 

[mjkacmom]

Posted this in another thread but more on point here. Studies keep coming out like this, and this is one of many worldwide. The fatality rate is closer to the regular flu

USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) today released preliminary results from a collaborative scientific study that suggests infections from the new coronavirus are far more widespread - and the fatality rate much lower - in L.A. County than previously thought.

http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

Than this virus must be so much more contagious than the flu, because way more people are dying from covid19 than the flu here. Funeral homes can’t handle the load.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Posted this in another thread but more on point here. Studies keep coming out like this, and this is one of many worldwide. The fatality rate is closer to the regular flu

USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) today released preliminary results from a collaborative scientific study that suggests infections from the new coronavirus are far more widespread - and the fatality rate much lower - in L.A. County than previously thought.

http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

Yes, right in the ballpark as the Santa Clara County study....a tiny bit higher, but still, says with testing that they're finding that roughly 4.0% of the population has had the virus, which is much higher than the positives they currently have confirmed. I'd feel a heck of a lot better if more than 4% of LA county has had it.

 

[xuxa777]

Than this virus must be so much more contagious than the flu, because way more people are dying from covid19 than the flu here. Funeral homes can’t handle the load.

It has hit the nursing homes (around 40% of the deaths, likely more) and the elderly community extremely hard and quickly there for numerous reasons. Now that we know that we can protect those individuals and locations.

 

[Sandiz08]

Well we should find out shortly, some of the southern states are opening up a lot of places within the next couple of weeks.

 

[Wakey]

The Icelandic testing results in a very low death rate:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....less-deadly-half-population-asymptomatic/amp/

 

[fatmanatee]

Latest from NYC MTA is that 79 transit workers have died.

 

[Dan Murphy]

Georgia is looking for this Friday at opening up, among businesses, hair and nail salons, barbers, spas, tattoo parlors, body art studios, as long as social distancing is maintained. Hmmm, sounds tough to me. How does that work?

 

[RamblingMad]

Just saw that the governor of GA is partially reopening this week.

I’m really fearful of the second wave.

 

[RamblingMad]

Georgia is looking for this Friday at opening up, among businesses, hair and nail salons, barbers, spas, tattoo parlors, body art studios, as long as social distancing is maintained. Hmmm, sounds tough to me. How does that work?

Keep reading his press release. It includes movie theaters next Monday.

 

[Dan Murphy]

Keep reading his press release. It includes movie theaters next Monday.

Well, you could keep distancing there, similar to what, at least in our area, what theaters were doing before the mandatory shutdowns. Theaters here were limiting attendance and eliminating close seating. But in those businesses I posted, can't do them unless actually touching a person.

 

[cheryl.UK]

One in every 4000 people have now died so far in the UK. If you take the difference in population into account, that would be 82,000 in the US, except your curve is much steeper than ours. IMHO the US will see one in every 2000 and the UK one in 3000. This is not going to be over any time soon.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Georgia is looking for this Friday at opening up, among businesses, hair and nail salons, barbers, spas, tattoo parlors, body art studios, as long as social distancing is maintained. Hmmm, sounds tough to me. How does that work?

It will be interesting to see what happens. Business could be slow, workers won’t have child care, business could boom, cases spike, etc

 

[mjkacmom]

It has hit the nursing homes (around 40% of the deaths, likely more) and the elderly community extremely hard and quickly there for numerous reasons. Now that we know that we can protect those individuals and locations.

Can we? We don’t have enough PPE for the staff, we don’t have enough tests. Residrnts here have been isolated to their own rooms for a month now here.

 

[sam_gordon]

Than this virus must be so much more contagious than the flu, because way more people are dying from covid19 than the flu here. Funeral homes can’t handle the load.

Well, no one would have built up immunity to this and there's no vaccine for this. How contagious is the flu if you take those steps out?

 

[pahoben]

We have already covered Sweden. That is completely decided. Sweden is nothing to laud.
Deaths
Sweden 1,580
Denmark 364
Norway 181
Finland 92

With twice the population of each of the others and over 4 times the deaths of Denmark and nearly 6 times the deaths of Norway and Finland combined, Sweden's numbers aren't looking too good.


Darth Vader learns of these numbers.

My lord, the numbers from the Nordic countries are in sire.
Sweden didn't socially distance.
Sire they found it wiser...
They are as clumsy as they are stupid. Prepare your troops for social distancing general.
....
....
My lord, We have not socially....(choking)
You have failed me for the last time Sweden......


Sweden thought they were the exception. And in some ways they are. People naturally distance there. And if it was going to work anywhere, it was there. But it didn't. Their tendency to naturally distance was not enough. And sadly, they are paying the price.

Yes this has been covered. The fatality rate in Sweden is .015% which is extremely small compared to model forecasts. Children have gone to school and they don’t need to agonize as to when quarantine should be lifted and what will be the impact on deaths. The mortality rate as of yesterday in the US was .011% so the difference between the US with quarantine (and unknown impact when quarantine is lifted) is .004% of the population. I will take Sweden’s choices thus far in preference to the US. If you don’t no problem-continue to self quarantine.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Georgia is looking for this Friday at opening up, among businesses, hair and nail salons, barbers, spas, tattoo parlors, body art studios, as long as social distancing is maintained. Hmmm, sounds tough to me. How does that work?

Just use these.

 

[RamblingMad]

Well, you could keep distancing there, similar to what, at least in our area, what theaters were doing before the mandatory shutdowns. Theaters here were limiting attendance and eliminating close seating. But in those businesses I posted, can't do them unless actually touching a person.

I’m waiting for the drone barber. I guess barbers will become super spreaders if they get it.

 

[kdonnel]

Georgia is looking for this Friday at opening up, among businesses, hair and nail salons, barbers, spas, tattoo parlors, body art studios, as long as social distancing is maintained. Hmmm, sounds tough to me. How does that work?

Gyms as well. Gyms seem like one of the highest risk for cross contact. Are they going to clean the equipment between each person?

I know it has to happen eventually but I think it is a few weeks too soon.

I plan to continue doing what I have been doing, though I really would like a haircut. Going out to get groceries every other week, getting togo food on Fridays.

 

[smmco]

This was always going to be the "downside" of mitigation. That we actually comply, it reduces deaths, and actually works. Then it seems like we overreacted and we see posts like this about overreaction and "crying wolf." I'm going to just say that it's a good thing. If it's perceived that we "cried wolf" then we were successful.

Mitigation may work, but it also put 22 million on unemployment in 4 weeks, and the damage and layoffs have just begun. In the long run the cure will Worse than the virus. Hopefully we never do this again.