Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[Colleen27]

I invite you to travel to New York and tell me how much of an overreaction the last month has been. Maybe in smaller, rural areas it’s easy to believe we’ve been “crying wolf,” but in cities like New York and Portland and Detroit and Pittsburgh, the threat is very real and many, many, many people are dying.

I'm a native Detroiter and still live on the edge of the metro area. I wouldn't call the response here an overreaction on whole, but there are definitely elements of overreaction - field hospitals that ended up cancelled before they could be set up or are operating to serve a very small number of cases, a lockdown that missed some essential things in the first round (traveling to second homes in rural "up north" areas with limited medical resources and seasonal retail infrastructure that couldn't handle a winter influx) and then became quite arbitrary in the second (Best Buy can offer curbside service but garden centers can't, plants and paint are non-essential but lottery is essential, kayaking is fine but fishing boats are illegal), total shut down of non-essential medical procedures and services without regard to the local prevalence of virus cases which is causing mass layoffs and possible hospital closures, etc. Am I allowed to have that opinion, since I do live in a "hot spot" area and know people who have had the virus?

It’s funny the hysterical reaction about re opening beaches in Florida. The safest place in the world for protection from this virus is a beach. It is destroyed almost immediately by UV light and if that somehow doesn’t kill it then the combination of temperature and humidity will. If you wanted to organize a Coronavirus safe haven best place to put it would be on a Florida beach

I think the biggest problem with the beaches right now is that it isn't being handled at the state level. When it is left to local leaders, many beaches will remain closed and those that are open will therefore be much more crowded than if all the public beaches were open. Plus people will be driving more than necessary to get to those open beaches.

We've seen the same thing with parks in my area - the closure of big local parks has pushed everyone to use the county and state parks, which has made those parks more crowded and is now creating pressure for them to close too. But my county of 160K people has something like 3500 acres of park land, most of it far enough from the more populated parts of neighboring counties to be quite inconvenient or unknown to people who aren't from the area. When it is all open, there's almost no chance of crowding.

 

[goofyernmost]

I suppose that if you are feeling healthy and have had no signs of the virus then it is the pandemic that cried wolf. If, however, you are one of the 155,000** worldwide dead so far or the families of those dead, then the wolf did not cry loud enough. For those that think it is just a bad cold... very seldom does anyone die from a cold, so stop showing ignorance and denial, you could be next to get that bad cold.

Spoiler: **

Not sure exactly how current that number is, but it is at least that.

 

[Jrb1979]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...ff90fe-7daf-11ea-a3ee-13e1ae0a3571_story.html
For those that say we need to get back to normal quick. South Dakota shows what happens when you leave everything open.

 

[dvcgirl67]

How does society value a life potentially saved by additional quarantine time against a life potentially lost by additional quarantine time?

Unemployment has been shown to be a factor in 1 in 5 suicides. The longer we continue quarantine, the more suicides. Are those peoples lives worth less then a potential coronavirus victim?

What about the children that are beaten to death during the additional 2-4 weeks in quarantine? Are those peoples lives worth less then a potential coronavirus victim?

What about the people who have delayed what would have been life saving medical treatments because the hospitals and doctors offices are basically closed? Are those peoples lives worth less then a potential coronavirus victim?

It is a very hard decision to make and everyone will draw the line between which life is worth more at a different point but that line needs to be drawn.

Trust me, I understand the ramifications of closing down our economy. And I also get the other societal issues associated with everyone needing to shelter in place. That is why I asked that poster about her particular situation.

The economic piece of this is already happening and will just get worse. There are too many of us who will not just go on as if we're not in the middle of a pandemic. I was an ICU nurse. I still know nurses, including my sister-in-law, here is the manager of two units here in NJ where I live. She's been heading up her team of well over 100 staff members who have been caring for nothing but COVID-19 patients here for over 5 weeks.

This is not the flu. We are only just beginning to understand this virus. We don't have refrigerated tractor trailer trucks backing up to my local hospital during flu season filled up with dead bodies. That's a whole new kind of terrifying. At their peak they had over 70 critically ill COVID-19 patients....40 of them ventilators....ages...from 30 to 80. Not everyone has underlying health conditions. This isn't just an "old person" disease. And it's also not just an "underlying conditions" disease either.

We're all going to feel economic pain, and suffer in other ways. Some more than others. But this idea, that just because a certain percentage of our country decides that "they've had enough!!" or "the virus is a hoax!"...is laughable. What does that even mean? It's science...and math....and death.

If people feel that this is particularly harsh on people who are economically struggling or dealing with mental health/domestic violence issues, then give generously to those causes if you can afford to do so. In our case, we've made a commitment to pay the people in our lives who depend on that income throughout the crisis. For us, that's our cleaning lady, our dog walker, our dog groomer and my husband's guitar teacher. All gig workers...who are going to struggle. And we're giving generously to two of our local food banks.

But If you feel like this is all nuts...go ahead, circulate amongst yourselves. Find restaurants that will serve you. Sit nice and close to each other and pretend you're immune. Talk about how the rest of us are somehow "snowflakes" or "wusses"....or whatever floats your boat. Really prove how crazy you are and get on the first cruise ship that leaves port in Florida. Have at it. A bunch of us won't participate in that kind of lunacy.

This is a vicious virus. And we'll do whatever we can to avoid getting it. The refrain from our house, "In Dr. Fauci We Trust".

 

[Southernmiss]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...ff90fe-7daf-11ea-a3ee-13e1ae0a3571_story.html
For those that say we need to get back to normal quick. South Dakota shows what happens when you leave everything open.

Out of curiosity, I checked in on the town that I have family in in South Dakota.

The restrictions and procedures in that town sound identical to the procedures and restrictions in my town.

Businesses are closed, government offices are closed, social distancing activities are in place, schools are closed, business hours are cut.

Not really seeing much difference.

Family I have in SD are essential employees so they are working. Like dh and I are.

Should Smithfield and Sioux Falls have done more? Yea, they should have.

 

[Colleen27]

I'm not optimistic. Keep in mind we're all of a whopping 7 weeks into this (US first death was Feb. 28) out of the year or so it will take to run its course and/or develope and distribute a vaccine.

I think people really need to be more realistic about this number. The 12-18 months is for development alone. Most estimates are another 6-12 months to produce enough doses to start large-scale immunization programs. And even that is a very optimistic set of assumptions. The quickest development of a vaccine so far in our history is 4 years. The thinking behind the 12-18 months is that modern technology makes the process faster, but it took 5 years for an ebola vaccine and that was only approved last year so clearly that faster development can still be elusive. And efforts to find vaccines to other coronaviruses have proven unsuccessful (though that was at least partly because the outbreaks of SARS and MERS resolved while development was still underway, so the effort was largely abandoned). Hanging all our hopes and plans for the future on a vaccine is a risky strategy because it could mean living in limbo for years or waiting for something that simply never comes.

 

[dvcgirl67]

3 infected family members in NYC, 1 dead aunt in Boston and a brother who is a cop in NJ. It's very real to me.

The numbers are what the numbers are because we did something; I can only imagine what those numbers would be like if we had done nothing.

I'm so sorry for your loss.

 

[TLSnell1981]

I think the biggest problem with the beaches right now is that it isn't being handled at the state level. When it is left to local leaders, many beaches will remain closed and those that are open will therefore be much more crowded than if all the public beaches were open. Plus people will be driving more than necessary to get to those open beaches.

We've seen the same thing with parks in my area - the closure of big local parks has pushed everyone to use the county and state parks, which has made those parks more crowded and is now creating pressure for them to close too. But my county of 160K people has something like 3500 acres of park land, most of it far enough from the more populated parts of neighboring counties to be quite inconvenient or unknown to people who aren't from the area. When it is all open, there's almost no chance of crowding.

But your state is a prime example of why things SHOULD be handled locally.

 

[kdonnel]

It's science...and math....and death.

Science, math, and death, come into play all the time.

The US government has assigned a value to an American life many times. That value is then used to decide if legislation is worth it or not. Currently the US government values your life and mine at between seven million and ten million dollars. I have no doubt that the government is weighing the cost of remaining closed against the number of potential lives saved.

Just look at what happened when the speed limit on interstates was raised from 55 to 65 miles per hour. In the end drivers saved time by driving about two miles per hour faster on average.

At the same time, fatality rates rose by about one-third. Overall, people in the United States saved about 125,000 hours of driving per lost life. Another way the government has set a value on human life.

Not a decision I would ever want to be responsible for making.

 

[cobright]

Point 1. China may have locked down Wuhan, but they continued to allow Wuhan citizens to go on international flights after this.
Point 2. The Chinese recovery was miraculous after they kicked out all foreign press, so no accountability.

1- China locked down Wuhan hard followed by 200 other cities including 26 provincial capitals. And by hard I mean closed-management communities. They allowed travel but at this early stage it was generally felt that, like other SARS Coronavirus', carriers would be symptomatic and testing of travelors was implemented.
2- Chinese is one of the largest and/or fastest growing demographic of most non-china nations. Most of the chinese-americans you find in the many Chinatowns (and of course everywhere else) have family back in china and they talk. They have a restrictive very central government but they are a modern nation.

But fine, do something ridiculous and double their numbers, triple them; it's still a better outcome than we will have.

In theory it should all even out. Social distancing is ultimately just delaying the deaths. Unless we are willing to remain like this until a vaccine is developed, tested, and administered to millions.

What should have happened/be happening is the self isolation to arrest the upward climb of cases until a few cycles of universal testing is achieved. That would allow the nation (most of it) to get back to work within a few months with minimal new cases and much fewer deaths. then in a year we should have a vaccine and things get back to something close to normal.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I'm a native Detroiter and still live on the edge of the metro area. I wouldn't call the response here an overreaction on whole, but there are definitely elements of overreaction - field hospitals that ended up cancelled before they could be set up or are operating to serve a very small number of cases.

I think we all understand now what happened with the "field hospitals" right? The thinking was that the hospitals would be filled with COVID-19 patients in "hot spots"....and they are. But the thinking was also that a lot of the beds would still be filled with other patients who fill up all of those beds...all of the time.

As a former nurse, I can count on 10 fingers over ten years as nurse...how many times I had a bed that stayed empty through an entire shift. Hospitals are always full. They're full because a lot of those beds are filled with non-emergency surgical patients and also with people who end up hospitalized due to accidents, shootings....stabbings, car accidents...etc. Everyone is home. Crime is *way* down. Accidents are way down. People are still having strokes and heart attacks...other emergencies, but anyone who is "one the fence" about needing to go to the ER...is staying away.

So I can forgive the states of New York, New Jersey, California, Washington, Michigan...and any other state that build a temporary field hospital...and ended up not needing it. I would think that it was better to err on the side of caution. That's not a "they're overestimating the virus" deal....it's a...."we didn't factor in that other hospitalizations would drop so much" situation.

Same for the morons saying that "they knew there would never be a need for that many ventilators". Ok, sure....because this is the first pandemic to burn through our world like wildfire. I'm so glad to hear the Pandemic Version of Monday morning quarterbacks. Awesome.

Same for the idiots driving around and taking photos of empty hospital parking lots. Another clue to that particular batch of geniuses....the hospitals in my area emptied out to prepare for COVID-19 patients. The only staff in my local hospital...are heroes...putting their lives on the line to save our fellow citizens from the worst virus to attack our planet since 1918. Nobody else is there...no specialty docs, no visitors, no ancillary staff....nobody but them. That's why the parking lots are empty.

It's actually incredibly eerie to drive by our hospital if you understand what is really going on.

 

[cobright]

I think people really need to be more realistic about this number. The 12-18 months is for development alone. Most estimates are another 6-12 months to produce enough doses to start large-scale immunization programs. And even that is a very optimistic set of assumptions.

This is fair, I was speaking in very broad strokes.

Hanging all our hopes and plans for the future on a vaccine is a risky strategy because it could mean living in limbo for years or waiting for something that simply never comes.

Like I said, ideally a couple months of hard lockdown would buy us time to begin universal testing. Like the Green Orange Red QR code system rolling out in Shanghai. Then the country can get back to work and with the relatively few infected quarantined we shut down the new cases and the deaths as demonstrated in Vo, Italy. Even paying retail of about $15 per test, testing everyone in this country 4 times would only cost about $20B (one percent of what was spent on the stimulus measure). In reality it should cost much much less, similar broad rollouts of viral testing cost 50cents a person per test (for antibody testing) and $5 per person per test for genome testing.

But we won't do that.

The fact that the majority of the 40,000 deaths from this so far and most of those yet to come could have been and could be prevented, should be a national outrage, but it's not.

A growing voice says to isolate the elderly and then just let whoever else is going to die from this hurry up and get to it.

 

[jlwhitney]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...ff90fe-7daf-11ea-a3ee-13e1ae0a3571_story.html
What happened in South Dakota is a good indication of how long it's going to take to get to each phase.

The main outbreak is tied to the Smithfield processing plant which if even a stay at home order in the state would have still been open since it would be considered essential.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Science, math, and death, come into play all the time.

Just look at what happened when the speed limit on interstates was raised from 55 to 65 miles per hour. In the end drivers saved time by driving about two miles per hour faster on average.

Oh dear lord...if I hear the speed limit analogy one more time....

Again, it's all good. Head out into society. Be with like-minded people. Go to mega-churches next Sunday. We all need to do our thing. I will not walk blindly into our community where there's been next to no testing out of some "apples and wood" argument trying to compare a deadly virus with the speed limit.

I said this in another thread...but one indicator....watch what the wealthy people are doing. Not just..."follow the money", but watch how those people are behaving. I've been watching them on CNBC for 5 weeks. They're all Skyping in from their mansions and enclaves in the Hamptons and the Silicon Valley. An awful lot of them are saying..."we all need to get back to work!". They're saying..."we need to re-open America!!". They're talking about the pain, the suicides, the drug use, the domestic abuse....talking, and talking....from the comfort of their second homes.

Let me know when some of the Fortune 500 CEOs show up at one of the AR-15/non-face mask wearing protests. Let me know when any political leader...from either side of the aisle shows up at one of those protests. They're all....staying home. Whenever my state decides to move us to the next phase of the federal "guidelines"....I'll be watching to see if my Governor is out there practicing and following those new relaxed guidelines. I think he's doing a pretty good job overall for us in NJ, but he's a super wealthy former Goldman Sachs guy. So I'll be watching him.

And the same follows for travel, concerts...etc. When Mark Cuban is sitting court side at a Dallas Mavericks game packed with fans...maybe I'd entertain going to an indoor sporting event. When Steven Spielberg is willing to sit with his family in an AMC theater packed with strangers, I'll contemplate seeing a movie. And when Bob Iger loads up his family to head to off on a fully loaded Disney Cruise....followed up by a few nights at the resort.....we'll possibly think about doing that too.

It's not just a "put your money where your mouth is moment"....it's a "if you think it's so safe....then you do it" moment. It's a..."if you're so worried about society...then get out there and prove it" moment. We've decided to stay safe and pay the people we normally pay, and donate to help the less fortunate.

 

[Colleen27]

I think we all understand now what happened with the "field hospitals" right? The thinking was that the hospitals would be filled with COVID-19 patients in "hot spots"....and they are. But the thinking was also that a lot of the beds would still be filled with other patients who fill up all of those beds...all of the time.

As a former nurse, I can count on 10 fingers over ten years as nurse...how many times I had a bed that stayed empty through an entire shift. Hospitals are always full. They're full because a lot of those beds are filled with non-emergency surgical patients and also with people who end up hospitalized due to accidents, shootings....stabbings, car accidents...etc. Everyone is home. Crime is *way* down. Accidents are way down. People are still having strokes and heart attacks...other emergencies, but anyone who is "one the fence" about needing to go to the ER...is staying away.

So I can forgive the states of New York, New Jersey, California, Washington, Michigan...and any other state that build a temporary field hospital...and ended up not needing it. I would think that it was better to err on the side of caution. That's not a "they're overestimating the virus" deal....it's a...."we didn't factor in that other hospitalizations would drop so much" situation.

Same for the morons saying that "they knew there would never be a need for that many ventilators". Ok, sure....because this is the first pandemic to burn through our world like wildfire. I'm so glad to hear the Pandemic Version of Monday morning quarterbacks. Awesome.

Same for the idiots driving around and taking photos of empty hospital parking lots. Another clue to that particular batch of geniuses....the hospitals in my area emptied out to prepare for COVID-19 patients. The only staff in my local hospital...are heroes...putting their lives on the line to save our fellow citizens from the worst virus to attack our planet since 1918. Nobody else is there...no specialty docs, no visitors, no ancillary staff....nobody but them. That's why the parking lots are empty.

It's actually incredibly eerie to drive by our hospital if you understand what is really going on.

True. I'm actually more aggravated about what is happening with the field hospitals (and the rest of the system) now than with their construction in the first place. Dismantling or reducing capacity is so short-sighted, and almost seems to assume that a "lockdown until vaccine" strategy is in place. Increasing medical capacity was meant to be an integral part of the #flattenthecurve strategy from the start, and we should be keeping those increases in place to be prepared for somewhat higher (though not crisis level) spread as things begin to reopen. It probably was overreaction to think we'd need 3500 field hospital beds but it is also an overreaction to falling numbers to think we can get rid of all of them just because we're past peak, if that makes any sense.

It is hard not to laugh at the people posting pictures of empty hospital lots as proof of anything. What did they think would happen when all non-essential procedures were halted and visitors were banned? Did they think most people who are ill enough to be hospitalized drive themselves there in their personal vehicles and leave them in a parking lot for the duration of their illness?

This is fair, I was speaking in very broad strokes.

Like I said, ideally a couple months of hard lockdown would buy us time to begin universal testing. Like the Green Orange Red QR code system rolling out in Shanghai. Then the country can get back to work and with the relatively few infected quarantined we shut down the new cases and the deaths as demonstrated in Vo, Italy. Even paying retail of about $15 per test, testing everyone in this country 4 times would only cost about $20B (one percent of what was spent on the stimulus measure). In reality it should cost much much less, similar broad rollouts of viral testing cost 50cents a person per test (for antibody testing) and $5 per person per test for genome testing.

But we won't do that.

The fact that the majority of the 40,000 deaths from this so far and most of those yet to come could have been and could be prevented, should be a national outrage, but it's not.

A growing voice says to isolate the elderly and then just let whoever else is going to die from this hurry up and get to it.

Yeah, I'm past thinking/talking much about "ideally" because we all know ideal isn't going to come into play in any of this. It hasn't since the beginning and there's no sign it will in the foreseeable future. I think we need to engage with the way things are because it is very unlikely that the less-than-ideal elements of our response are going to be swayed either by facts or by public opinion.

 

[Dan Murphy]

155,000

Add at least 10,000 more now.

15,000 now.

 

[Childs1stTime2Disney]

I think that depends on where you live. If you live in one of the hardest hit areas, then no, if not, then yes you may see it as crying wolf.

 

[mnrose]

Oh dear lord...if I hear the speed limit analogy one more time....

Again, it's all good. Head out into society. Be with like-minded people. Go to mega-churches next Sunday. We all need to do our thing. I will not walk blindly into our community where there's been next to no testing out of some "apples and wood" argument trying to compare a deadly virus with the speed limit.

I said this in another thread...but one indicator....watch what the wealthy people are doing. Not just..."follow the money", but watch how those people are behaving. I've been watching them on CNBC for 5 weeks. They're all Skyping in from their mansions and enclaves in the Hamptons and the Silicon Valley. An awful lot of them are saying..."we all need to get back to work!". They're saying..."we need to re-open America!!". They're talking about the pain, the suicides, the drug use, the domestic abuse....talking, and talking....from the comfort of their second homes.

Let me know when some of the Fortune 500 CEOs show up at one of the AR-15/non-face mask wearing protests. Let me know when any political leader...from either side of the aisle shows up at one of those protests. They're all....staying home. Whenever my state decides to move us to the next phase of the federal "guidelines"....I'll be watching to see if my Governor is out there practicing and following those new relaxed guidelines. I think he's doing a pretty good job overall for us in NJ, but he's a super wealthy former Goldman Sachs guy. So I'll be watching him.

And the same follows for travel, concerts...etc. When Mark Cuban is sitting court side at a Dallas Mavericks game packed with fans...maybe I'd entertain going to an indoor sporting event. When Steven Spielberg is willing to sit with his family in an AMC theater packed with strangers, I'll contemplate seeing a movie. And when Bob Iger loads up his family to head to off on a fully loaded Disney Cruise....followed up by a few nights at the resort.....we'll possibly think about doing that too.

It's not just a "put your money where your mouth is moment"....it's a "if you think it's so safe....then you do it" moment. It's a..."if you're so worried about society...then get out there and prove it" moment. We've decided to stay safe and pay the people we normally pay, and donate to help the less fortunate.

You nailed it for me. I don't see myself taking a trip anytime soon....anywhere. And, I don't see myself eating at a restaurant anytime soon either. I intend to practice social distancing until there's a treatment that works OR there's good antibody testing available that shows I've had it (it's possible I did because I felt "off" and had a sore throat for about 10 days in earlier March after travel to the west coast). Otherwise, heck no. I'm going to continue to practice social distancing. There's no compelling reason for me to do any different, frankly. And, I'll be watching for Trump to hold campaign rallies where he gets up close and personal with his supporters. That will be a true tell about how "safe" he feels it is. Other politicians as well. The vast majority of them fall into that "over 60" category. It will be quite interesting to see if they will act as they are asking others to act.

 

[pahoben]

You do realize that the data you are looking at shows active cases and not new cases that the worldometers and JHU site compiles.
You’re trying to compare apples to pears (not oranges if you understand what I mean).

Again, I stand by what I said, which is not that I am going to hide in my house, contrary to what you claim I said.

But, then again, “I realize there is nothing I could write or show that would change your views.”

You need to look at the % change per day in what I linked. I wrote also that your worldometer data doesn’t show upward trend of new cases nor new deaths. No worries I understand your beliefs and really am supportive of any one that chooses to self isolate.

 

[pahoben]

I'm curious, if that data showed that significant numbers of lives would be spared if you stayed home for an additional 2-4 weeks in "quarantine", would you do so? Especially if we could at least mitigate the overall health and economic pain in the short term?

Is your personal situation dire from an income standpoint? I only ask because my DH and I are in a position where we can stay home, for an extended period if necessary. So I'm just trying to understand everyone's circumstances.

If people choose to self isolate I am supportive. They can arrange circumstances that would provide essentially zero chance of having the virus transmitted to them. All of us every day make personal choices that balance risk with benefit. Should I take the car or walk? More fatality risk with taking the car but I prefer the benefit in any event. People make these personal decisions every day. I have looked at the risks for me and my family and believe the benefit outweighs the risk of not having quarantine but I 100% support anyone that believes otherwise and chooses to self isolate. My families choice does not impact anyone that chooses to effectively self isolate. We could stay in a bunker for a very very long time if we choose to do so but realize many can’t. When I was a child that was not the case-even tougher times would have been just around the corner.

Children have zero fatality risk from this virus and are forced to stay inside and it impacts their education for no good reason. My children and myself cannot impact anyone that chooses to effectively self isolate. In fact the sooner we are exposed and develop antibodies and can no longer be carriers the better it is for people that do self isolate. This idea of selfish self interest in this case really makes no sense.

About 7500 people die on a typical day in the US and there are terrible heartbreaking stories associated with many of those that are not highlighted in the media. I wish that we could make utopia on earth and banish death and disease but not possible nor will it ever be possible. We all face the risk of death each and every day and make choices that elevate that risk based on our personal evaluation of that risk and the benefit that elevated risk provides. I consider myself fortunate in that ordinarily I do have those individual choices.