Will rising park entry costs affect the resale value of DVC contracts?

[Orsino]

If Genie+ had simply copied Universal's (limited) Express pass, it would have been a brilliant move. Professionals would gladly pay for it or fork over the cash for Deluxe rooms to have it included.

It isn't that simple. If Disney were to offer Express pass like at Universal the price would have to be exorbitant (VIP tour level) both because of the existence of VIP tours and the high demand for VIP tours. If Disney offered Express Pass at Universal prices, it would be a feeding frenzy and vacations would be "ruined" either by too many people buying Express Pass or Express Pass being 'sold out' so only those who 'win' the frenzy are set and the rest are fuming. Put it this way, would you go to WDW if they had Express Pass that sold out every day and you only had a 25% chance of getting one? That's functionally equivalent to simply jacking up the price and limiting tickets (see After Hours).

Disney is too popular to support Express Pass. I'm kind of waiting for Universal to become popular enough that Express Pass implodes over there too.

 

[ofcabbagesandkings]

It isn't that simple. If Disney were to offer Express pass like at Universal the price would have to be exorbitant (VIP tour level) both because of the existence of VIP tours and the high demand for VIP tours. If Disney offered Express Pass at Universal prices, it would be a feeding frenzy and vacations would be "ruined" either by too many people buying Express Pass or Express Pass being 'sold out' so only those who 'win' the frenzy are set and the rest are fuming. Put it this way, would you go to WDW if they had Express Pass that sold out every day and you only had a 25% chance of getting one? That's functionally equivalent to simply jacking up the price and limiting tickets (see After Hours).

Disney is too popular to support Express Pass. I'm kind of waiting for Universal to become popular enough that Express Pass implodes over there too.

I think if you were limited to using it on each ride only once per day, and the newest rides in each park were still VQ, it wouldn't be that bad. Disney can't currently meet demand for VIP tours, so they're leaving a lot of money on the table anyway. Anyway, it's a moot point, as Disney has clearly gone a different direction, but it's one that makes DVC less desirable for guests with deep pockets.

 

[CBMom01]

For a family of 4, Genie + would be $60/day. 5 days = $300

Deluxe resort is often $300 more than moderate and $500 more than value each night.

The math doesn’t work at Disney.

At Universal, I love Cabana Bay and for 2 people it was much cheaper just to buy Express Pass than to pay for the hotel upgrade

 

[kilik64]

Tangent post - Instead of professional class I like to call those people HENRYs

High Earner, Not Rich Yet.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Yes, I do think everything Disney’s done over the last couple of years will negatively affect resale.

 

[crisi]

Tangent post - Instead of professional class I like to call those people HENRYs

High Earner, Not Rich Yet.

Most of them will never be rich - i.e. they will be able to afford college for their kids, and retire comfortably - but they won't be intergenerationally wealthy - able to pass enough money down to their children that their children will not be constrained by mere considerations of income when choosing a job.

(I have friends who do foundation work - for a lot of those jobs, it doesn't pay well, but the people who have them don't need the money - they inherited it.)

 

[Heather07438]

The greatest wealth transfer in modern history has begun:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/older-...th-giving-away-heirs-philanthropy-11625234216
"Baby Boomers and older Americans have spent decades accumulating an enormous stockpile of money. At the end of this year's first quarter, Americans age 70 and above had a net worth of nearly $35 trillion, according to Federal Reserve data. That amounts to 27% of all US wealth..." July 2021

That's enough wealth to give every person in Florida right now a little less than $2 million ($1,667,000 each to 21 million people). Or... just over $100,000 each to a USA population of 333 million people. Big money getting transferred and WDW must be keenly aware of their demographic overlap going forward.

 

[crisi]

The greatest wealth transfer in modern history has begun:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/older-...th-giving-away-heirs-philanthropy-11625234216
"Baby Boomers and older Americans have spent decades accumulating an enormous stockpile of money. At the end of this year's first quarter, Americans age 70 and above had a net worth of nearly $35 trillion, according to Federal Reserve data. That amounts to 27% of all US wealth..." July 2021

That's enough wealth to give every person in Florida right now a little less than $2 million ($1,667,000 each to 21 million people). Or... just over $100,000 each to a USA population of 333 million people. Big money getting transferred and WDW must be keenly aware of their demographic overlap going forward.

Much of that wealth won't see the next generation. If you are 70, you have years of living left to do off it it. Some of it you can expect to be relatively healthy and active for. But healthcare. is expensive. And then supported living expenses as you need help. As someone whose parents and in laws are pre-boomers - that wealth spends FAST.

 

[kilik64]

Most of them will never be rich - i.e. they will be able to afford college for their kids, and retire comfortably - but they won't be intergenerationally wealthy - able to pass enough money down to their children that their children will not be constrained by mere considerations of income when choosing a job.

(I have friends who do foundation work - for a lot of those jobs, it doesn't pay well, but the people who have them don't need the money - they inherited it.)

Yea not implying they’ll ever be rich

Much of that wealth won't see the next generation. If you are 70, you have years of living left to do off it it. Some of it you can expect to be relatively healthy and active for. But healthcare. is expensive. And then supported living expenses as you need help. As someone whose parents and in laws are pre-boomers - that wealth spends FAST.

so greatest generation?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Perks ebb and flow. We’re probably in a low tide at the moment. People will always look for a great deal to get into DVC. There’s a reason why demand for resale SSR and OKW is at the highest it’s ever been.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Perks ebb and flow. We’re probably in a low tide at the moment. People will always look for a great deal to get into DVC. There’s a reason why demand for resale SSR and OKW is at the highest it’s ever been.

Was the highest it had ever been. Now there are 189 SSR contracts and 92 OKW contracts on the resale market; in May, even counting all 14 resorts together there weren’t 281 contracts on the resale market. Now there’s over 900. Everything is just sitting.

And the number of listings is up about 200 since the Lightning Lane announcement.

And if you look at sales tracking on www.DVCNews.com, direct and resale sales have both fallen off a cliff this summer. Demand has softened a lot. I won’t hazard a guess why but the data is clear as day.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Was the highest it had ever been. Now there are 189 SSR contracts and 92 OKW contracts on the resale market; in May, even counting all 14 resorts together there weren’t 281 contracts on the resale market. Now there’s over 900. Everything is just sitting.

And the number of listings is up about 200 since the Lightning Lane announcement.

And if you look at sales tracking on www.DVCNews.com, direct and resale sales have both fallen off a cliff this summer. Demand has softened a lot. I won’t hazard a guess why but the data is clear as day.

Yeah, the influx of listings was definitely noticeable starting about 2 months ago. But it’s weird that price hasn’t come down that much.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Yeah, the influx of listings was definitely noticeable starting about 2 months ago. But it’s weird that price hasn’t come down that much.

It probably has come down, but in the bids not list.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Yeah, the influx of listings was definitely noticeable starting about 2 months ago. But it’s weird that price hasn’t come down that much.

I don’t think it’s that weird. There’s a lot of reasons that price drops will be slower than price increases, not least of which is the influence on pricing the brokers have. But if the supply keeps increasing, it will inevitably happen, eventually.

 

[crisi]

I don’t think it’s that weird. There’s a lot of reasons that price drops will be slower than price increases, not least of which is the influence on pricing the brokers have. But if the supply keeps increasing, it will inevitably happen, eventually.

And that to will depend on how much people want to sell. We bought BWV at 63 a point and haven't been to WDW in years. But using points at HHI works fine for us. Renting out our points is a low effort thing - particularly with a broker. DVC owners who don't need to cash out and use the money for something else can just hang onto their contracts - rent points out, travel without parks.....

But we are also getting to another inflection point. Disney had a huge growth period starting after 2002 or so. SSR opened in 2004. People who bought with young kids in 2004 are now sending those kids to college - and an extra $20k for tuition can sound really good. Lots of them are finding that family trips with older teenagers are difficult to schedule and that its hard to plan a college kid's schedule eleven months out - will they get that internship? Be taking summer classes? Study abroad? Some of those people are going to decide the money in their pocket (or heading to the college bursar's office) is a better use of it right now. I know that for a lot of people here, Disney is a lifestyle that will survive children leaving the nest - and they hope to see that come around again with grandchildren. But that isn't the case for everyone. And demographics are changing a lot - there are very few grandparents among my friends - whose kids are 30 and younger. People who bought 20 years ago looking forward to grandkids while their own kids were still little may be saying "gee, my kid really doesn't even date and shows no interest in going all Ozzie and Harriet." SSR was followed by the large VAKL......There are years of families divesting themselves of DVC ahead of us in the resale market.