Will Poly's current points value rise or decline?

[SL6827]

With the new Poly tower being built, if it is in the same association, what could that do to the value of Poly 1 points?

What if it is it's not the same association, what could it to to the value of Poly 1 points?

 

[Ruttangel]

Same association will have a small impact on direct sales as the equivalent product is available to buy on resale market. Pushing resale price up a bit.
If it’s not the same then it will come down to point charts and dues. If Poly 1 is cheaper it will still have appeal as it’s in a better location to TTC.

PVB is a strange one though, studio availability is pretty good at 7 months so you don’t need to own there to stay. It is however an excellent candidate as a SAP resort due to long contract and lowish dues. it’s also never been actively taken in ROFR like BLT and even VGF a couple of years ago so it’s always been a cheaper purchase.

Of course we don’t know if PVB2 will have restrictions meaning if you buy Poly 1 in resale now you could be blocked out from staying in Poly 2. If history tells us anything then VGF2 did not have restrictions and had same association but DVC is rarely consistent!

 

[Sandisw]

I think it will depend on the decision and the market. Right now, I still believe that it will be a new resort and association and be blocked from resale…especially since resale values have fallen so low..which means no one needs to buy direct to access it.

If that happens, I think PVB will settle in to where it has fallen now which is a pretty nice price. If they do add it to PVB, I think any bump will be minimal.

Once the decision regarding restrictions is announced for VDH, we should have some idea if DVD still wants that to be part of its long term model.

VGF was unique in what happened, as It was a pretty quick flip. But, VDH is new, and if they remove them with that project, then I think there is a good chance Poly tower won’t, RIV will have them removed, and all will go back to pre 201….which means that the economy and ROFR will play a bigger role in where PVB resale price lands

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

VGF fell in price quickly when VGF2 went on sale, but that’s because the resale price was bumping against the price of a new contract. I don’t think same association would impact resale much initially at current prices or even last years prices. Eventually, having a few million more points in the association will reduce its upcharge relative to the other resorts, as other than BRV, which is a total outlier probably due to the existence of CCV, the other WDW resorts sell at a pretty locked formula relating total number of points and years left.

Different association could have some impact depending what the room mix is. But the expirations are close enough that I don’t think we’d see the same huge gap in resale prices we see at the two WL resorts.

 

[RoseGold]

If in the same association, Disney will be the dog, and resale will be the tail, just like VGF, which opened low and bombed resale value for VGF1. Disney's pricing will decide.

But, if they are different associations, I think Disney could actually bring it up Poly1 pricing, which is the opposite of what happened in VGF2. VGF was a small resort at the time, 2.5M points, and adding 2M points was a lot. Poly is already 4M points, so it's not as scarce from the jump. There's a lot in resale, and mostly studios is appealing to a lot of people.

I just can't picture Poly2 being in active sales without having some Poly1 to sell. It would be like trying to sell RIV, but you can't stay in most of the studios. They're going to have to ROFR Poly1 to have some to sell. Run the car salesman math they do, and even the sold out pricing is just a few more dollars a month to get those newly refurbished studios. The fact that they aren't currently buying Poly1 suggests one association. But one association is not the decision I would make if I were Disney, and it's not like they can't ROFR Poly1 next year.

I actually think Poly2 expiration will match Poly1, no matter what association. It worked well at VGF, and no one seems to care.

 

[sethschroeder]

Same association will have a small impact on direct sales as the equivalent product is available to buy on resale market. Pushing resale price up a bit.

The direct price is going to tank likely thus putting downward pressure on resale like happened at VGF.

Resale is always semi depressed by the lower active sales pricing.

I don't see how cheaper direct pricing with no ROFR makes the pricing go up.

 

[sethschroeder]

The fact that they aren't currently buying Poly1 suggests one association.

Really from a sales strategy perspective it's why I would do.

There will be a group of people looking to sell fast to get POLY 2 and depress the market allowing you to grab POLY 1 off ROFR.

Additonally strategically I would expect resale prices to continue to depress over the next year anyways because of the economy and likely my divison has a budget hold anyways from mangement.

 

[RoseGold]

There will be a group of people looking to sell fast to get POLY 2 and depress the market allowing you to grab POLY 1 off ROFR.

But that's the opposite of what Disney has done. They didn't ROFR VGF1 when they tanked VGF1 resale prices. I'm not sure they have ROFRed any VGF at all since VGF2?

In retrospect, it's clear why they weren't ROFR-ing overpriced VGF1, because they knew they were about to tank the market. But they also didn't take the low priced resale when they had the chance.

They already have VGF points, they created them. That wouldn't be true if they need Poly1 points because some people want to buy Poly1, which I would think is the natural outcome of active sales of Poly2.

 

[Sandisw]

But that's the opposite of what Disney has done. They didn't ROFR VGF1 when they tanked VGF1 resale prices. I'm not sure they have ROFRed any VGF at all since VGF2?

In retrospect, it's clear why they weren't ROFR-ing overpriced VGF1, because they knew they were about to tank the market. But they also didn't take the low priced resale when they had the chance.

They already have VGF points, they created them. That wouldn't be true if they need Poly1 points because some people want to buy Poly1, which I would think is the natural outcome of active sales of Poly2.

But Poly tower gets them PVB at 7 months if it’s a new association so they don’t need PVB to sell.

There is currently not of demand direct for PVB so not sure how that changes

Lack of RoFR does not seem to indicate anything to me because they are not doing it for any resort.

They stopped ROFR with VGF and until it went back in active sales, and a price was known, the price did not go down.

It was only after we knew what you could buy it for direct did the average price come down.

As I said, I still believe it’s about restrictions and whether they want to continue what they started with RIV, what most cert would have been in place for Reflections.

And until we see a new resort come out with or without them, we just have no idea if that’s still a goal.

One thing seems pretty likely to me and that is if it’s rolled into PVB as a second phase, it’s going to be pretty hard to sell direct points at current pricing when resale contracts get you the exact same thing.

I just can’t imagine them wanting to do that. And yes, they did it with VGF but just seems to me it made sense for renovated hotel rooms then a brand new build with larger units.

I guess we shall see.

 

[RoseGold]

It was only after we knew what you could buy it for direct did the average price come down.

As I said, I still believe it’s about restrictions and whether they want to continue what they started with RIV, what most cert would have been in place for Reflections.

Assuming Disney knows the answer to these things now, which I guess is a big assumption, they would know what to do, like when they stopped buying back VGF1 at very high prices before VGF2 pricing was known.

If they plan to tank the price, I guess they don't need to be buying Poly1 high no matter what the association. They can always buy it later.

If they plan to significantly increase the price, it seems like maybe ROFR would be appealing now.

 

[CarolMN]

I think lack of ROFR has WAY MORE to do with the current availability of capital (lack there of), than it has to do with any DVC selling strategies.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I don't recall the exact date but maybe a month ago I got a call from a guide informing me they were having a special on PVB points and wanting to let me now in case I was interested. I don't really think it plays into anything with what's coming with the tower but they were recently playing around with the pricing or even more likely just trying to bump up direct sales and had a pile of previously ROFR'd points to sell.

DVC really didn't tank the VGF resale pricing. They did what they have done for the past decade or so by increasing a "sold out" resort price and VGF was small enough and new enough it remained high. The different part was that they then decided to add a new section but what they did for pricing is what they've always done - price it at the level they are selling current resorts at. The run up on VGF happened concurrently with the run up on all DVC with a little added pressure that DVC stopped selling it direct.

 

[sethschroeder]

But that's the opposite of what Disney has done. They didn't ROFR VGF1 when they tanked VGF1 resale prices. I'm not sure they have ROFRed any VGF at all since VGF2?

In retrospect, it's clear why they weren't ROFR-ing overpriced VGF1, because they knew they were about to tank the market. But they also didn't take the low priced resale when they had the chance.

They already have VGF points, they created them. That wouldn't be true if they need Poly1 points because some people want to buy Poly1, which I would think is the natural outcome of active sales of Poly2.

VGF is the same resort I am saying if they are seperate otherwise they won't need Poly1 points as they are the same as the new tower.

 

[Nursemanit]

Poly resale is similar to what was last summer - it had not " tanked"

We now can see from the construction that Poly 2 has rooms on both the lagoon side and the highway side so it will be around 200 + rooms - plenty for a new association. However, with the location not being on the monorail and not as easily walkable to TTC I think Poly 1 can hold its own in resale value.