This is how I think of it. We have 200 points.
$738 our dues for this year
$316 (1/50th of inital purchase price)
_____
$1054
DVC expenditure per year.
Points useage vs. rack rate
$1925 - 1BR SSR villa 5 nights ($385/night or 135 total points)
$1150 - 2BR SSR villa 2 nights 2005 ($575/night or 62 total points)
______
$3075
If we didn't have DVC, our options would be (family of 5, 7 nights):
$1043 - one room for 5 at POR (can you say sardines?)
$1670 - one room for 5 at a deluxe (sardines again)
$1925 - two rooms at a value, or
$2310 - two rooms at a moderate
For us, the cost of DVC meets or beats every option we have at WDW. Granted, these are rack rates without any discounts, but I also used the standard "view" rooms when figuring the rates. Not to mention, we get a heck of a lot more space and in-room amenities with DVC.
You can do your own analysis using the DVC
points charts here at the DIS and the list of rack rates from mousesavers. Determine what your upcoming vacation plans will be, "buy" your points at $95 (150 point minimum and $3.68 per point dues if you buy from DVC) and calculate the rest.
http://www.mousesavers.com/roomrates2005.html