Will 1 Bed rooms point cost really be lowered?

[hakepb]

The other fun factor is fixed weeks. VGF and Poly have fixed week contracts. I believe I heard that VGF sold out of fixed week studios in December.

Now, fixed week owners can never be charged more if their week becomes more expensive, but does that change what impact a reallocation has on a resort?

 

[BillPA]

So here's a question... you'd think based on this dynamic, that the UY of the contract would drive the cost of resale points. Since it costs fewer points to travel in the fall, you'd think UY's that give you good fall options would sell for more per point. Does that happen? I don't know if there is data on this. But you'd think then too, that Jan UY's (which are bad for trips Sep-Dec, the time when points are cheapest) would be cheaper because you'll generally need more points to travel in the spring / summer.

UY has nothing to do with when you want to book, so no reason to assume points would cost any more or less based on UY. UY only matters when you get your allocation, banking dead line or the dreaded rule of 4.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

I did notice this odd seasonal distribution in our decision to buy... That almost all of the Fall dates are in Adventure-Choice but the Spring dates are in Dream-Magic.



The key dynamic here is whether rooms are going unbooked in the spring. With the Sun-Thurs taken, nobody wants a 2-day Fri-Sat trip that costs way more. So I could see that leaving lots of Fri-Sats untaken. But I just don't see that May is going unbooked. And like you said, we can't really check that now... Perhaps in the spring, around Feb-Mar, see what availability there is for Apr-May.



Again you'd have to know if May is truly going unbooked. Between SWW and F&G Festival, May has traditionally been a really popular time.

February is another story. Feb falling in Dream-Magic doesn't make much sense to me. So how do we know if Feb rooms are empty? It could be that if you own at other vac clubs, ppl are transferring in to take these for cheaper?

So here's a question... you'd think based on this dynamic, that the UY of the contract would drive the cost of resale points. Since it costs fewer points to travel in the fall, you'd think UY's that give you good fall options would sell for more per point. Does that happen? I don't know if there is data on this. But you'd think then too, that Jan UY's (which are bad for trips Sep-Dec, the time when points are cheapest) would be cheaper because you'll generally need more points to travel in the spring / summer.

Interesting question. BTW, Feb is the first UY.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

So here's a question... you'd think based on this dynamic, that the UY of the contract would drive the cost of resale points. Since it costs fewer points to travel in the fall, you'd think UY's that give you good fall options would sell for more per point. Does that happen? I don't know if there is data on this. But you'd think then too, that Jan UY's (which are bad for trips Sep-Dec, the time when points are cheapest) would be cheaper because you'll generally need more points to travel in the spring / summer.

As any UY can travel at any time of the year the answer would be no, it won't affect the cost of the resale.

Having the best UY is just having one that gives you lots of time to use or even bank points should you have a last minute cancellation, but that's all.

 

[beer dave]

As any UY can travel at any time of the year the answer would be no, it won't affect the cost of the resale.

Having the best UY is just having one that gives you lots of time to use or even bank points should you have a last minute cancellation, but that's all.

Yes but if you purchase a contract intending to travel october to december, it should be an august or september contract--- for the safety of banking and cancelling or whatever.--- So if the desired travel time overall becomes fall dates, the above mentioned use years should be more desireable, hence worth more $.....

 

[Anal Annie]

Yes but if you purchase a contract intending to travel october to december, it should be an august or september contract--- for the safety of banking and cancelling or whatever.--- So if the desired travel time overall becomes fall dates, the above mentioned use years should be more desireable, hence worth more $.....

But if you travel at all times of the year like we do (in summer AND fall AND winter AND sometimes spring) the UY is not AS important. So IMO a particular UY is not necessarily worth more money. We have a Dec UY and it has worked out OK for us - we have traveled in pretty much every month except Oct, Dec and Feb.

 

[beer dave]

But if you travel at all times of the year like we do (in summer AND fall AND winter AND sometimes spring) the UY is not AS important. So IMO a particular UY is not necessarily worth more money. We have a Dec UY and it has worked out OK for us - we have traveled in pretty much every month except Oct, Dec and Feb.

Oh I absolutely agree. We go in september, october or november, january or february, and may, and all my contracts are in september.... makes my may trip subject to some possible collateral damage....
I was just joining the debate of if fall is the new highest desired dvc travel time on the average......and people are buying contracts with the plan of only staying in fall, then blablabla... you get it.

 

[MrInfinity]

But if you travel at all times of the year like we do (in summer AND fall AND winter AND sometimes spring) the UY is not AS important. So IMO a particular UY is not necessarily worth more money. We have a Dec UY and it has worked out OK for us - we have traveled in pretty much every month except Oct, Dec and Feb.

Right, so you travel at all times, and we likely will too. But a poster above was making the case that Oct-Dec was definitely more popular, and s/he went so far as to say that Feb-May dates were being left unbooked and this was cause for a point redistribution. I don't think that's the case, personally. But if it was, you'd see the optimal UYs for travelling in the fall trend higher than say Feb UYs.

 

[beer dave]

Right, so you travel at all times, and we likely will too. But a poster above was making the case that Oct-Dec was definitely more popular, and s/he went so far as to say that Feb-May dates were being left unbooked and this was cause for a point redistribution. I don't think that's the case, personally. But if it was, you'd see the optimal UYs for travelling in the fall trend higher than say Feb UYs.

And you know, when I was looking for a resale contract, sept uy, I noticed they were few and far between....

Maybe there are just less sept contracts for some reason.

 

[DenLo]

so i was reading a few threads and people mentioned due to the high demand for studios that people expect 1 bed rooms will be lowered. do people have any guestimates on how much they could be lowered? i was looking today and was surprised that there is only about a 60-80 point difference from a 1 to 2 bedroom unit i was surprised thought it would be more. just curious on why people think it could happen and if would be noticeable?

The square footage of a room still is used to figure the points, I just cannot see DVC lowering the points of a 1BR because the studios are selling out. It just doesn't make financial sense to charge less for more space.

 

[Granny]

The square footage of a room still is used to figure the points, I just cannot see DVC lowering the points of a 1BR because the studios are selling out. It just doesn't make financial sense to charge less for more space.

I don't think anyone was suggesting that 1BR point schedules would be lower than Studios. Just that there may be a chance that at some point they will need to move the two accommodations closer together in point requirements. You'd still need more points for the bigger space.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

And you know, when I was looking for a resale contract, sept uy, I noticed they were few and far between....

Maybe there are just less sept contracts for some reason.

Yep. 8.6% - one of the lowest.

http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-pr...ar-distribution-charts-updated-september-2015

 

[LAX]

The square footage of a room still is used to figure the points, I just cannot see DVC lowering the points of a 1BR because the studios are selling out. It just doesn't make financial sense to charge less for more space.

I am not trying to dispute your claim, but square footage just can't be the most important factor in determining the required number of points. Since the square footage of a 1 bedroom at OKW can't be that much smaller than one at VGF to just the difference in points. Plus, do most 1-bedrooms have twice the square footage of a studio as the number of required points is nearly twice as much?

LAX

 

[Dean]

I'd say 50/50 for reallocation. The POS says DVC is required to rebalance if necessary but they'd need an absolute basis to do so

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

I. Plus, do most 1-bedrooms have twice the square footage of a studio as the number of required points is nearly twice as much?

LAX

From what I recall, 1 BR are indeed generally about twice the size of the studios. I didn't look up all of them, but:

AKV: 365 vs 720 sq ft
BCV: 356 vs 719 sq ft
BLT: 339 vs 803 sq ft

I wonder if there is any leeway in rebalancing at all since most of the time a studio + 1 br costs more than a 2 br lock off, but they only sell enough points to fill the 2 BR (I hope). In theory they could reduce the cost of a 1 BR and keep the studios the same and the total number of points for the year would not be less than the amount sold.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Yes but if you purchase a contract intending to travel october to december, it should be an august or september contract--- for the safety of banking and cancelling or whatever.--- So if the desired travel time overall becomes fall dates, the above mentioned use years should be more desireable, hence worth more $.....

Right, so you travel at all times, and we likely will too. But a poster above was making the case that Oct-Dec was definitely more popular, and s/he went so far as to say that Feb-May dates were being left unbooked and this was cause for a point redistribution. I don't think that's the case, personally. But if it was, you'd see the optimal UYs for travelling in the fall trend higher than say Feb UYs.

That thought process is assuming that most people pay that much attention to UY - which I don't think they do. And it also assumes if they do think about it that they are more likely to pay more for a UY that will provide a bit of insurance against a last minute cancellation vs just buying what cost the least and is available - a process that will balance out prices. And there are a lot of people who will just say that they never would cancel and don't care about having the "best" UY vs cost.

The popularity of the last 3 months of the year is not new and I've noticed no premium for certain UY's. The size of the contract still seems to dictate premiums more than anything else.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The square footage of a room still is used to figure the points, I just cannot see DVC lowering the points of a 1BR because the studios are selling out. It just doesn't make financial sense to charge less for more space.

I think that is exactly the thought process that Disney used when they decided to make 1BR's essentially double the cost of the studios. It probably wasn't the best though as they also made them both sleep the same number of people and now with having beds for 5 in most of the studios vs sleeping spots for 4 in many 1BR's I think we may see even more of a disparity in booking.

 

[beer dave]

Yep. 8.6% - one of the lowest.

http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-pr...ar-distribution-charts-updated-september-2015

Hmmm..... thanks.

 

[beer dave]

I think that is exactly the thought process that Disney used when they decided to make 1BR's essentially double the cost of the studios. It probably wasn't the best though as they also made them both sleep the same number of people and now with having beds for 5 in most of the studios vs sleeping spots for 4 in many 1BR's I think we may see even more of a disparity in booking.

Yup from a construction stand point, the buildings are cut up into "slots". A studio takes one slot, a one bedroom takes two, 2 bed three, and GV are 6. From an occupancy perspective the studio and then the 2 bedroom are the best values. From realestate aspect, they are fairly balanced. I could see there needing to be a change in point values.

 

[beer dave]

That thought process is assuming that most people pay that much attention to UY - which I don't think they do. And it also assumes if they do think about it that they are more likely to pay more for a UY that will provide a bit of insurance against a last minute cancellation vs just buying what cost the least and is available - a process that will balance out prices. And there are a lot of people who will just say that they never would cancel and don't care about having the "best" UY vs cost.

The popularity of the last 3 months of the year is not new and I've noticed no premium for certain UY's. The size of the contract still seems to dictate premiums more than anything else.

Yeah I see your point and for the majority I agree. However, personally, when I was looking for a resale contract in september, they went quickly when they occurred, and forced me to offer close to asking as soon as one popped up... so I (and others I was in competition with) have paid more for september. At least I think I have paid more-- since I wasn't looking for other UY's, I don't really have that info....