Why Would You Buy Direct Anymore?

[havoc315]

Do you have any data to support that claim?

Respectfully, I don’t think you can make that generalized statement.

Of course I can.

Which brings more revenue to Disney —
In ticket sales, 1 AP holder who visits 30 days? Or 30 1-day tickets?

Which brings more revenue, a local who stops by after work and on weekends, or a guest who books a room at the Grand Floridian for a week?

There is absolutely no question that on a per capita and per day basis, an AP guest brings in less revenue than a regular ticket.

Put another way, who would anyone buy an AP if it wasn’t saving them money vs regular tickets?

Why do you think APs have blackout dates? If a Gold pass holder was bringing in more daily revenue than a regular ticket, then why would you ever black out dates???

 

[wvujeb]

It’s not about individual cases. It’s about the group as a whole.
And a frequent AP visitor is even worse for Disney— for $1,000 (less for gold, more for platinum).. if they visit 50 days in a year, only paying $20 per visit!

But as a whole, an average AP holder brings in significantly less revenue per day than a regular ticket buyer.
On average:
1– they are paying less per day on the ticket than an average regular ticket buyer
2– they are less likely to be staying on property. (Which is why they get offered big discounts to stay on property)
3– they eat fewer meals and snacks on property than a regular on-site guest

Yes, of course there are some AP holders who visit 30 days per year, staying at the Grand Floridian for 30 nights, eating 90 meals on site, etc. But most AP holders are not doing that.

But without capacity limits, where you may trade an AP for a ticketed guest, what's the harm in only making $20 per visit. Disney has driven a lot of people to Universal with how they have handled the pandemic. If that was in exchange for having a ticketed guest as a replacement, then it's a win. But when capacity is lifted or if the parks didn't hit capacity that day, it's a loss. It might not be as much money as a ticketed guest but it's still money left on the table. A per visit basis isn't the only comparison to look at either. While APs spend less per visit, many still spend a lot over the course of the year. If those driven to Universal decide to stay at Universal, that could be a significant loss.

 

[havoc315]

But without capacity limits, where you may trade an AP for a ticketed guest, what's the harm in only making $20 per visit. Disney has driven a lot of people to Universal with how they have handled the pandemic. If that was in exchange for having a ticketed guest as a replacement, then it's a win. But when capacity is lifted or if the parks didn't hit capacity that day, it's a loss. It might not be as much money as a ticketed guest but it's still money left on the table. A per visit basis isn't the only comparison to look at either. While APs spend less per visit, many still spend a lot over the course of the year. If those driven to Universal decide to stay at Universal, that could be a significant loss.

Yes. An AP guest is better than no guest. No question.
But when space is limited (whether by Covid capacity or Christmas, etc), they’d rather have a regular guest fill the limited spots.

Universal is taking advantage of their underdog position — aggressively using this time period to increase their base, seeing Disney behaving more conservatively.

But that’s like a new competitor who offers their product initially with massive discounts in order to try to gain a market share foothold.

 

[Minniesgal]

I wouldn't not now

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Of course I can.

Which brings more revenue to Disney —
In ticket sales, 1 AP holder who visits 30 days? Or 30 1-day tickets?

Which brings more revenue, a local who stops by after work and on weekends, or a guest who books a room at the Grand Floridian for a week?

There is absolutely no question that on a per capita and per day basis, an AP guest brings in less revenue than a regular ticket.

Put another way, who would anyone buy an AP if it wasn’t saving them money vs regular tickets?

Why do you think APs have blackout dates? If a Gold pass holder was bringing in more daily revenue than a regular ticket, then why would you ever black out dates???

Again, you are making assumptions that you cannot back up.
You are assuming a local AP owner is not purchasing anything other than the AP. That is just not true.

Yes, 30 one day tickets are more expensive than an AP. What is your point there? In your post you said “An AP holder generates little income for Disney beyond the purchase of the pass.”
You have no data to back up that claim. I would guess that is true for some people, but I’m positive it is not true for all.
Why do you think Disney wants so many locals in the parks? They offer residents numerous reduced AP’s to get them to the resort. They would not offer cheap tickets to residents who then spend very little.

 

[havoc315]

Again, you are making assumptions that you cannot back up.
You are assuming a local AP owner is not purchasing anything other than the AP. That is just not true.

Yes, 30 one day tickets are more expensive than an AP. What is your point there? In your post you said “An AP holder generates little income for Disney beyond the purchase of the pass.”
You have no data to back up that claim. I would guess that is true for some people, but I’m positive it is not true all.
Why do you think Disney wants so many locals in the parks? They offer residents numerous reduced AP’s to get them to the resort. They would not offer cheap tickets to residents who then spend very little.

Nonsense. I'm not making any assumptions beyond the most obvious accepted facts.

I'm not assuming a local AP owner purchases nothing other than the AP -- I'm stating the fact that they spend LESS on a DAILY basis on AVERAGE than a regular ticket holder.

I'm not talking about some people OR all people. I'm talking about "on average."

Disney DOESN'T want a ton of AP-holder locals in the park! That's why they voided all the APs in California. That's why they blackout lots of AP tiers around crowded days.
They would rather have an AP-holder in the park instead of having nobody in the park. So as long as they have empty spots, they will happily take an AP holding local.
You said it yourself -- Why do they offer REDUCED APs to locals? Yet, with blackouts and restrictions? Because they will take those locals over empty spots! Not that they will take those locals over a regular ticket holder!

But when they don't have room in the park? At Christmas, which do they black out -- regular ticket purchasers, or most tiers of AP??

"They would not offer cheap tickets to residents who then spend very little." -- of course they would, because "very little" is still better than NOTHING. But at Christmas, do they kick out the regular ticket holders to make room for the discounted low tier annual passes? Why not?

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Nonsense. I'm not making any assumptions beyond the most obvious accepted facts.

I'm not assuming a local AP owner purchases nothing other than the AP -- I'm stating the fact that they spend LESS on a DAILY basis on AVERAGE than a regular ticket holder.

I'm not talking about some people OR all people. I'm talking about "on average."

Disney DOESN'T want a ton of AP-holder locals in the park! That's why they voided all the APs in California. That's why they blackout lots of AP tiers around crowded days.
They would rather have an AP-holder in the park instead of having nobody in the park. So as long as they have empty spots, they will happily take an AP holding local.
You said it yourself -- Why do they offer REDUCED APs to locals? Yet, with blackouts and restrictions? Because they will take those locals over empty spots! Not that they will take those locals over a regular ticket holder!

But when they don't have room in the park? At Christmas, which do they black out -- regular ticket purchasers, or most tiers of AP??

Well, I disagree with almost everything you have said, but I won’t argue about it. So, like the saying goes... we will agree to disagree.

 

[havoc315]

Well, I disagree with almost everything you have said, but I won’t argue about it. So, like the saying goes... we will agree to disagree.

We can always agree to disagree on matters of opinion. Facts are facts:

"During yesterday’s third quarter earnings call, Disney CEO Bob Chapek revealed that half of all of the guests visiting Walt Disney World right now are locals. This means that the resort is relying quite heavily on Annual Passholders during the reopening phase. Chapek noted that Annual Passholders spend less than the average guest because they typically stay on site for a shorter period of time and spend less once they’re in the parks. "

https://blogmickey.com/2020/08/disn...reasingly-difficult-to-visit-the-theme-parks/
So feel free to disagree with me. But I doubt you know the financials better than Chapek.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

We can always agree to disagree on matters of opinion. Facts are facts:

"During yesterday’s third quarter earnings call, Disney CEO Bob Chapek revealed that half of all of the guests visiting Walt Disney World right now are locals. This means that the resort is relying quite heavily on Annual Passholders during the reopening phase. Chapek noted that Annual Passholders spend less than the average guest because they typically stay on site for a shorter period of time and spend less once they’re in the parks. "

https://blogmickey.com/2020/08/disn...reasingly-difficult-to-visit-the-theme-parks/
So feel free to disagree with me. But I doubt you know the financials better than Chapek.

Lol!! I really thought I was done, but....
That does not tell the whole story. Local AP holders may visit 50-100 days a year. So, in totality they may spend more, and possibly less on a per visit basis.

 

[havoc315]

Lol!! I really thought I was done, but....
That does not tell the whole story. Local AP holders may visit 50-100 days a year. So, in totality they may spend more, and possibly less on a per visit basis.

Ok... so now you agree with me. To quote what I said before:

I'm stating the fact that they spend LESS on a DAILY basis on AVERAGE than a regular ticket holder.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Ok... so now you agree with me. To quote what I said before:

No, I do not agree with you.
I used to vacation at WDW a couple of times a year before I became local. I know what I spent then, and what I spend now. Pre covid, when the restaurants were open, we would visit roughly six times a month. Usually visiting a park for a little while, then drinks, then dinner... then more drinks. I promise we spent a lot more in that 1/2 day than most vacationers.
I also know we are not the only local folks who do that.

That’s the only stats I have, but it is solid first hand facts.

 

[Einstein509]

This thread is getting derailed. Back to the topic at hand. I saved $17,000 buying resale vice direct on a recent contract. Even with AP discounts for one AP pass, it would take 85 years at a $200 per AP saving to break even going resale vice direct. So enough said about buying resale and the AP discount perk you get. I get the convenience of buying direct and getting the points immediately, but the savings can't be beat going resale.

For some, money is no object, but for others it is.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

This thread is getting derailed. Back to the topic at hand. I saved $17,000 buying resale vice direct on a recent contract. Even with AP discounts for one AP pass, it would take 85 years at a $200 per AP saving to break even going resale vice direct. So enough said about buying resale and the AP discount perk you get. I get the convenience of buying direct and getting the points immediately, but the savings can't be beat going resale.

For some, money is no object, but for others it is.

Yes, every family has different circumstances. Some here have four (or more) adults on the deed, who all have five kids. At $500 savings per pass, that $17k could almost be replaced in one year.
But yes, in many situations resale is a cost saver.

 

[havoc315]

No, I do not agree with you.
I used to vacation at WDW a couple of times a year before I became local. I know what I spent then, and what I spend now. Pre covid, when the restaurants were open, we would visit roughly six times a month. Usually visiting a park for a little while, then drinks, then dinner... then more drinks. I promise we spent a lot more in that 1/2 day than most vacationers.
I also know we are not the only local folks who do that.

That’s the only stats I have, but it is solid first hand facts.

Sure.... so Chapek is a liar. You know better than Chapek. He lied during an investor call (which is a felony).

I know 2 AP holding families -- They never stay in an on-site resort. At most, they eat lunch in the park.
That's solid stats -- And that's 2 families, you're only talking 1 family.

And nope, you did not spend more than most vacationers. A 1-day ticket to Disney is $109 to $159
You visit 6 times per month, on an AP. So a local Gold Pass AP is $719. Or maybe you got the Theme Park select pass for $439.
So family of 4, visiting 6 times per month on their AP, just ticket revenue over 12 months $1,756 - $2,876
But if families of 4 came for 6 1-day trips per month, over 12 months: $31,392 - $45,792.

So total ticket revenue from your family: only $1,756 - $2,876, vs $30-40k from non-AP holders in those spots.

Now, break that down to "per day" -- The non-AP guest is generating $103- $149 more per person, per day, than the AP holder.

Now, that's before we even count food, hotels, etc.

So, did you spend $100-$150 per person and per day more than an on-site guest on food and hotel?
So, a family of 4, staying in a mod hotel.... $250 per night. Saying they spent $200 per day on food. For non-ticket spending of $450 per day.
Is your family spending $850 to $1050 on food and merchandise per day in the park?
If not, your example proves that even your anecdotal evidence is incorrect.
Unless you're spending about $70,000 per year on food and drink at WDW, you are spending LESS per capita per day than regular ticket buyers.

 

[havoc315]

This thread is getting derailed. Back to the topic at hand. I saved $17,000 buying resale vice direct on a recent contract. Even with AP discounts for one AP pass, it would take 85 years at a $200 per AP saving to break even going resale vice direct. So enough said about buying resale and the AP discount perk you get. I get the convenience of buying direct and getting the points immediately, but the savings can't be beat going resale.

But you potentially save a LOT more than $200 per AP per year.

If you live out of state, an annual pass is $1200. You cannot buy a Gold Pass without DVC.
With DVC, you can buy a Gold Pass for $719 (if it works with your typical travel dates).

So that's a savings of $481. Family of 4 -- That's a savings of $1924 per year.

So if re-sale is $17,000 cheaper: Break even if 9 years, if you are a family of 4 that can benefit from Gold Passes.

Meanwhile, savings are often far less than $17,000. For example -- Direct at Riviera $180 per point for 200 points. vs resale at BCV or BLT or Poly... Where it's $140 to $150 per point. So 200 points, re-sale savings would only be about $8,000.
So the gold pass discount break even point is only 4 years.

So it really depends on the buyer. For many many families, the direct purchase is financially wise IF they are taking advantage of the Gold Passes and IF that perk returns.

 

[CarolMN]

I'm not assuming a local AP owner purchases nothing other than the AP -- I'm stating the fact that they spend LESS on a DAILY basis on AVERAGE than a regular ticket holder.

On average, I suspect that it also true of DVC members - no matter what passes they choose.

"During yesterday’s third quarter earnings call, Disney CEO Bob Chapek revealed that half of all of the guests visiting Walt Disney World right now are locals. This means that the resort is relying quite heavily on Annual Passholders during the reopening phase. Chapek noted that Annual Passholders spend less than the average guest because they typically stay on site for a shorter period of time and spend less once they’re in the parks. "

https://blogmickey.com/2020/08/disn...reasingly-difficult-to-visit-the-theme-parks/
So feel free to disagree with me. But I doubt you know the financials better than Chapek.

Not a surprise because there are many internationals who would love to to WDW right now, but cannot due to travel restrictions. It's also not a stretch to think that there are many out-of state residents who choose not to visit right now.

My only point is that I believe annual passes will be sold again for WDW. Prices will be adjusted and perhaps also the perks, but we annual passholders (current & former) will still recognize the Program.

The ability to purchase an annual pass is an important part of our membership. If it goes away or is eliminated, we will have to rethink WDW vacations.

 

[eandt]

This varies from passholder to passholder. There are some passholders that stop in do their 3 passholders and leave. There are others that visit quite regularly and in a rather full capacity. During limited capacity, when you compare a ticketed guest to a passholder, this (ticketed guests spending more) holds true. Under normal circumstances though, it's not an either or proposition. There are local passholders that dine at Disney on a regular basis. They don't buy as much merchandise on each visit, but they buy merchandise consistently. There are some passholders that are out of state that make additional trips since they have a pass, that they wouldn't otherwise make. These passholders typically spend more in-line with ticketed guests. APs also balance out some of the lower travel seasons. The only reason I see to reduce/remove AP is if they truly want less people in the park in order to improve the quality/experience of Disney. But that comes at the expense of profit, and I don't see that happening.

The only year that we purchased an AP (not an owner) we made the trip to FL from PA 4 times .....

 

[eandt]

It’s not about individual cases. It’s about the group as a whole.
And a frequent AP visitor is even worse for Disney— for $1,000 (less for gold, more for platinum).. if they visit 50 days in a year, only paying $20 per visit!

But as a whole, an average AP holder brings in significantly less revenue per day than a regular ticket buyer.
On average:
1– they are paying less per day on the ticket than an average regular ticket buyer
2– they are less likely to be staying on property. (Which is why they get offered big discounts to stay on property)
3– they eat fewer meals and snacks on property than a regular on-site guest

Yes, of course there are some AP holders who visit 30 days per year, staying at the Grand Floridian for 30 nights, eating 90 meals on site, etc. But most AP holders are not doing that.

In normal times, The cost per day that a guest pays for a ticket would only really matter on the few days a year that the parks are above capacity. The $20 fequent visitor is still better than $0 per day if that person doesn't visit and parks arent at or above capacity. Also who spends a day at Disney and doesn't eat/drink or purchase? Not many I would imagine. Never has happened with my family.

 

[eandt]

Nonsense. I'm not making any assumptions beyond the most obvious accepted facts.

I'm not assuming a local AP owner purchases nothing other than the AP -- I'm stating the fact that they spend LESS on a DAILY basis on AVERAGE than a regular ticket holder.

I'm not talking about some people OR all people. I'm talking about "on average."

Disney DOESN'T want a ton of AP-holder locals in the park! That's why they voided all the APs in California. That's why they blackout lots of AP tiers around crowded days.
They would rather have an AP-holder in the park instead of having nobody in the park. So as long as they have empty spots, they will happily take an AP holding local.
You said it yourself -- Why do they offer REDUCED APs to locals? Yet, with blackouts and restrictions? Because they will take those locals over empty spots! Not that they will take those locals over a regular ticket holder!

But when they don't have room in the park? At Christmas, which do they black out -- regular ticket purchasers, or most tiers of AP??

"They would not offer cheap tickets to residents who then spend very little." -- of course they would, because "very little" is still better than NOTHING. But at Christmas, do they kick out the regular ticket holders to make room for the discounted low tier annual passes? Why not?

What IS the Average Ticket Holder? If Disney sells anything other than 1 day tickets then they are not maximizing their profits.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

An AP holder generates little income for Disney beyond the purchase of the pass.

Nonsense. I'm not making any assumptions beyond the most obvious accepted facts.

I'm not assuming a local AP owner purchases nothing other than the AP -- I'm stating the fact that they spend LESS on a DAILY basis on AVERAGE than a regular ticket holder.

I'm not talking about some people OR all people. I'm talking about "on average."

Back to DIsney and AP's for a second although I'm not certain what you're trying to argue other than that Chapek (and Iger before him) always had that statement in their reports regarding Parks and Resorts. "Annual Passholders spend less than the average guest because they typically stay on site for a shorter period of time and spend less once they’re in the parks" I've come to the conclusion it's a sentence they are required to say. That often gets interpreted as "they hate AP holders" however they've been saying it for years and changed next to nothing. (I'll address DL later)

Actually I think the first quote I highlighted is what got things going as you did actually state that an AP holder generates little income for Disney beyond the purchase of a pass. No mention of average and you're back up to your statement would have to be based off of inside knowledge because I don't think I've ever heard a Disney CEO state that. Have they claimed that on an average an AP holder only averages spending of the price of an AP.? Actually no because that would only be possible if every AP holder only ever bought the AP and did zero other spending which of course wouldn't be true. All they state is that on a daily basis if they lump guests into these categories they've selected the AP holder spends less than other categories of guests. That statement in itself is not surprising but is also too generic to tell a complete story part of it. The overall total of income that a single AP holder generates over the year for the Parks and Resorts is also part of it since the parks rarely ever reach the capacity that requires them to close off entry (during non-pandemic times). Also does the AP holder add income to the bottom line or are they an expense? I've never heard them say the average AP holder costs them money because if it did they either need to increase the price of an AP or eliminate it. They had increased the price although I think that was because they decided they were leaving money on the table vs any fact that AP guests were costing them money.

Blackouts? Not all AP's are blacked out so there's a price point that they are good with AP's entering the parks on busy days. Those days are pretty few to really argue much about them either. 2 major holiday travel periods when WDW feels they can get enough daily ticket sales to either max out the parks or come close to it. If every day were like those holidays are then yes, they'd get rid of AP's or drastically change the program.

And DL? Very different from WDW at the moment. Reopening with AP's in place would have been unmanageable with the pent up demand from over a year of closure along with the capacity restrictions they are under so just from that point there was little else they could do and keep guests satisfied. Does Disney see beyond that as a chance to experiment and see how it goes without AP's? I'd think so but it's a unique situation and offers an unusual business opportunity without much or any risk because if they find it's a complete fail they still can state "well we had to cancel AP's then because of Covid restrictions but now we're able to sell AP's again" and they feel confident most will come back.