Why wait times have gotten crazy

[bcrook]

A few thoughts..first, regarding SB wait times. In June we experienced some of that, with the largest variance being RnRC...posted SB was 90 minutes (which I would typically never get in), actual was 55 minutes (this was mid-morning). I can understand jacking up the times at the end of the day to steer people away, but now it seems to occur anytime, and regularly. As a customer, that totally blows if you can't tell whether the SB time is real or inflated.

Second, FP+ puts Disney in complete charge of how they distribute the FP's with almost no transparency to the consumer. Anybody that thinks they have more control under FP+ is living in a dream world. Interesting that they could just ramp up FP's during a busy time like Christmas, thus reducing SB to a parking lot. I will be very curious to see what Len and the crew at TP can figure out, but I think it could be very difficult to decipher since the system is highly flexible and can be manipulated at will. Again, IMHO, totally blows for the customer.

Third, I've said it before, but I think Disney has this utopian idea in their head that goes like this...ok, we have 30K people in MK for a day. We'll split the crowd into 6 groups of 5K each, and each group of 5K will experience everything in one land with say a 15-20 minute wait, and then everybody takes a step to the right and experiences the next land. Voila, at the end of the day everybody has had the same experience and been able to see all of the MK (once) with minimal wait. What could be better? Ok, perhaps too Orwellian, but I think there is some truth to it. Problem is, that's not what the market wants. Or they are trying to create a market that will accept their vision. Blows for those of us who want a free market.

Fourth, I actually do think there's hope for the future. FP+ is too far ahead of its time. Many others have said it before (thinking of you, Mom2rk), but FP+ let the genie out of the bottle in that the ride capacity isn't there for the demand they created. With more capacity on the horizon for Soarin and TSMM, plus new areas in DHS, will be interesting to see how the future unfolds. Still don't like the opaqueness of FP+, but more capacity can only help.

The first good test will be Animal Kingdom with the night time show holding people in the parks later and Pandora. Will that alleviate some stress off of the Magic Kingdom? If that Soarin' over Pandora ride becomes a hot ticket with high capacity it could keep thousands in DAK. But we still have 18 months to wait for that.

I'm curious about the number of seats available for the River of Lights show. It definitely looks like some bleachers are going in (like Fantasmic!) and some standing areas like World of Color. if they can get 7500 people in there it is going to lead to the next feeding frenzy if those seats are simply added to to the fastpass pool.

I can't wait to see what wickedness is going to come out of DAK expansion. I'm expecting upcharges for premium seats for the show and/or $100.00/person dining packages, and an upcharge for the Nightime Safari.

 

[LindsayGorg]

Disney tries hard to keep the resort levels separate from the parks. That is, someone staying at a Value isn't deserving of less of a park experience than someone staying at a Moderate. I'm hoping they keep it that way. I have stayed at all levels, and sometimes I just feel like the more fun, in your face themeing of the Value resorts. I shouldn't be punished in the parks for that.

Or punished for the fact that some of us can't afford anything above the Values. If they did that I could see a lot of pissed off people in their future...

 

[bcrook]

I don't see why the answer simply isn't just MORE attendance. Isn't daily attendance numbers known somewhere?

More people are going (especially in the "off" times) .. due to parties (because more "known" and popular) .. discounts .. etc. It probably takes a few years for word of mouth about these parties to work its way around .. plus the discounts or things like "Free dining" hooking people in.

Add in that new FantasyLand isn't THAT old and people are still coming to see the new rides there.

Plus the economy has gotten better (for some) compared to years 5-10 years ago .. so people are vacationing more.

Because by all the clues from the theme park estimates and vague information in the financial reports the lack of the attendance growth rate is a problem. There are quite a few insider articles discussing WDW's stagnant growth.

It makes just as much sense to me that FP+ has caused a huge change in the dynamics and Disney doesn't have the capacity to manage it.

I've noticed two things on my trips this year:

1. The number of people in the parks from July 6-July 10 felt ridiculously low at DAK and Epcot, I had very little trouble getting around. But the ride lines were still long. With Dinosaur being appointment ride only (standby well over an hour wait all day, with nearly all riders entering with a FP). It's strange, but it is like Disney created the opposite of what they wanted. The net result seemed to be everybody standing in lines for rides and not many people out and about. Epcot world showcase was practically a ghost town, yet the rides were full.

At MK, everything was different. It seems FAR more crowded there with rides like Peter Pan experiencing 60 minute standby waits at 8:45. The FPs start to fill up early and stay booked deep into the night. To me this looks like a disproportionate number of guests are saving their fastpasses for just MK and ignoring the other parks. So more visits to MK are occurring plus locals can buzz in for the evening use their three fastpasses and enjoy a few hours.

DHS - is a mess. The Frozen fireworks held the crowds pretty well this summer, so Fastpasees stayed there. But the shortage of things to do is staggering.

2. Everybody who walks in now expects their three rides. Where in the past my mother in law, wine drinking friends, and cranky family members would simply forego any rides with 15 minute waits or longer and are now seeing that they have 3 entitlements a day whether they need them or not. And they are not wasting them. With all those thousands of people entering lines they could have skipped before, that is causing a huge increase in demand. It's amazing what my family and friends will go through to not miss a fastpass appointment. I can't believe it at times.

Finally, I have seen rides running at less than capacity at different times of the day, and it looks suspiciously like they knew how many customers were coming based on Appointments for rides and staffed accordingly. It looks like to me Disney is comfortable with 10 min fastpass return wait times and 40 minute standby times regardless of crowds. So during a non busy day, they cut back on ride capacity, number of workers, and let the lines stay longer. I'm afraid MM+ made this much easier for them. As someone else said, Disney could very well be cutting back on FP+ availability during slower times and forcing people into different rides while keeping their staff down all over the parks.

Josh's data at easywdw is very convincing. It looks like ride manipulation is the culprit not staggering attendance gains. That and the extra people flooding into MK because there is simply more to do.

 

[SparklePixie]

Don't know about entirely- but they would be severely limited- which is the point. Stay with Disney, get perks- stay offsite, wait in lines for the best attractions. Period. In my scenario- I work for Disney, not Howard Johnson's, Holiday Inn or Hilton. If Disney did this they would be at, or close to, capacity at all resorts all year long. I noticed your other post and that you believe they haven't done it yet because they want to strike a balance between onsite and offsite. Disney doesn't owe offsite guests anything- and by giving offsite the same number of FP+s there is no incentive to stay onsite other than the 60 day window- and we pay for that privilege. IMHO there will come a day when there are distinctions made- and it will be sooner rather than later. It may not be my exact scenario- but Disney isn't stupid and understands the need to provide incentives for on site guests to keep them on property for their vacation. It is extra resort income, more food income (in my scenario I don't work for McDonalds or IHOP, either), etc. This scenario has possibilities, and Disney will do what it needs to do so that people stay on property.

Disney would be making a grave mistake if they penalize off-site visitors. Disney in no way has the capacity to have all of their guests stay on-site. Off-site guests and locals make up a large part of their business.

 

[SparklePixie]

I agree- the system will remain the same for the foreseeable future. However, once the renovations and building projects are getting close to completion- I think we will see a change. In the bigger picture, the legacy and FP+ systems have been in constant flux since inception- with changes made all the time- and the system will remain fluid. Universal gives huge incentives to onsite guests- Disney will follow as soon as they are able to accommodate the additional demand that will be created by providing more on site incentives while 'throwing a bone' to offsite guests as well. Time will tell, I guess.



The scenario provides for additional incentives at each tier. No one is punished- they would just receive more incentives as they committed to spending more money. I have stayed at all levels, too- and you're kidding yourself if you believe your experience is the same at All Stars as it is at the GF. The park experience in my scenario would match the resort experience- that's the way it should be IMHO. Spend more, reap more incentives.

The resort experience should have no bearing on the park experience.

 

[bcrook]

The resort experience should have no bearing on the park experience.

Three years ago when the first signs of dynamic pricing started to leak out, people said Disney can't do this because of non expiration tickets, hopping, annual passes, etc. And now we see that they can.

I think when the Fastpass capacity reaches a higher level, tiered benefits will appear based on resort stay. Of course this reality is still on the other side of a completed Hollywood Studios. That could take 5-6 years if they use a mine train/Pandora timeline.

 

[havoc315]

The resort experience should have no bearing on the park experience.

Why not?
I know it will upset people that generally stay off site.

But resort experience already impacts park experience: on site gets EMH, off site doesn't.
On site gets 60 day advance booking, off site gets 30.

At Universal, on site guests get front of the line, off site guests don't.

It's a pretty standard practice in the industry to give on site guests park advantages.

 

[disneyAndi14]

I have been going to Disney 1-2x a year since 2010 and I have been at off peak times and spring break times. I really do see how FP+ has increased stand by times a fair amount. Between 2010-2013, we never had to wait more than 15-20 minutes for POC, HM, JC, GMR, etc.., now these rides no matter what time of year or if it is after 9:30 am in the parks all have much longer wait times. I don't hate FP+ but I am not a big fan either. We were just at Disney from 9/2-9/8 and overall very quiet the first part of our trip, it then was very busy the second half. We had the best trip November of 2012 it was so quiet and weather was awesome, we were really spoiled that trip. Every park was so great for rides, minimal waits. We have been back 5 times since 2012 and each trip the wait times are getting longer so I do think it is a combo of 1&2 for sure.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

Why not?
I know it will upset people that generally stay off site.

But resort experience already impacts park experience: on site gets EMH, off site doesn't.
On site gets 60 day advance booking, off site gets 30.

At Universal, on site guests get front of the line, off site guests don't.

It's a pretty standard practice in the industry to give on site guests park advantages.

Remember the time when Disney set the standards rather than trying to get in line with what everyone else does?

 

[SparklePixie]

Why not?
I know it will upset people that generally stay off site.

But resort experience already impacts park experience: on site gets EMH, off site doesn't.
On site gets 60 day advance booking, off site gets 30.

At Universal, on site guests get front of the line, off site guests don't.

It's a pretty standard practice in the industry to give on site guests park advantages.

I've never stayed off-site. If I wanted Universal type perks, I'd stay there.

 

[bcrook]

I have been going to Disney 1-2x a year since 2010 and I have been at off peak times and spring break times. I really do see how FP+ has increased stand by times a fair amount. Between 2010-2013, we never had to wait more than 15-20 minutes for POC, HM, JC, GMR, etc.., now these rides no matter what time of year or if it is after 9:30 am in the parks all have much longer wait times. I don't hate FP+ but I am not a big fan either. We were just at Disney from 9/2-9/8 and overall very quiet the first part of our trip, it then was very busy the second half. We had the best trip November of 2012 it was so quiet and weather was awesome, we were really spoiled that trip. Every park was so great for rides, minimal waits. We have been back 5 times since 2012 and each trip the wait times are getting longer so I do think it is a combo of 1&2 for sure.

I've seen the same thing.

And as more people are informed about booking in advance, the longer the lines will become. This could happen even with slight drops in attendance.

 

[bcrook]

Remember the time when Disney set the standards rather than trying to get in line with what everyone else does?

This really is the rub.

 

[minnie-apple-mouse]

Anyone can buy Express passes but you are advocating limiting what certain levels of visitors can do. Someone staying in a value resort couldn't buy extra fastpasses under your scenario but I can spend extra money to enjoy the Express feature at Universal no matter where I stay.

I don't like this type of elitism and to me it is that.

Agreed. Universal Express Pass is 100% elitism, it's either in the more expense hotel costs-or in the separate ticket purchase which is usually even more expensive.

 

[Planogirl]

Agreed. Universal Express Pass is 100% elitism, it's either in the more expense hotel costs-or in the separate ticket purchase which is usually even more expensive.

I must be phrasing things incorrectly because I don't see a good that I can purchase as elitism. To me reserving that item as only for certain people is elitism.

To me it's like when you drive your ordinary car into a repair shop and the guy who drove the Jaguar gets priority service. Or to make it even worse the repair shop turns me away and doesn't even let me pay for a service because my car isn't fancy enough.

At Universal, I can stay at their most expensive resort or their lower cost resort or stay offsite and in all three cases if I spend enough money via resort costs or by buying the passes outright I can use the express feature. I can't do that at Disney at least not right now.

But then like someone said, when did Disney decide to follow others?

 

[havoc315]

I must be phrasing things incorrectly because I don't see a good that I can purchase as elitism. To me reserving that item as only for certain people is elitism.

To me it's like when you drive your ordinary car into a repair shop and the guy who drove the Jaguar gets priority service. Or to make it even worse the repair shop turns me away and doesn't even let me pay for a service because my car isn't fancy enough.

At Universal, I can stay at their most expensive resort or their lower cost resort or stay offsite and in all three cases if I spend enough money via resort costs or by buying the passes outright I can use the express feature. I can't do that at Disney at least not right now.

But then like someone said, when did Disney decide to follow others?

It's more like a Jaguar dealership that offers free maintenance to Jaguar buyers. If you drove in with your Chevy and was denied free maintenance, would that be elitism?

Disney World is a comprehensive property that includes resorts, dining, and activities. It is very reasonable for them to package various items together. When they run free dining, is the failure to give free dining to off site guests elitism? Offering on site guests special dining, special fast passes, offering on site guests special transportation, offering extra park hours, it's no different. No different if they also offered extra fast passes.

 

[flicx]

Because by all the clues from the theme park estimates and vague information in the financial reports the lack of the attendance growth rate is a problem. There are quite a few insider articles discussing WDW's stagnant growth.


Finally, I have seen rides running at less than capacity at different times of the day, and it looks suspiciously like they knew how many customers were coming based on Appointments for rides and staffed accordingly. It looks like to me Disney is comfortable with 10 min fastpass return wait times and 40 minute standby times regardless of crowds. So during a non busy day, they cut back on ride capacity, number of workers, and let the lines stay longer.

The lack of growth should be very disturbing to Disney. Especially when others in the industry are way up. Seeing rides running at less than capacity with long waits in standby shows a disregard for customer service. The two problems probably go hand in hand!

 

[BC1836]

Walking towards TSMM at 1 p.m. today we noticed the longest line we had every seen: nearly 100 folks lined up past the restrooms! We walked to the FP+ entrance and noticed that the line was for FP+! Yikes!

The FP+ line wait to get to the FP+ entrance was about 15 minutes. Then another 15-20 minutes to get on board the ride.

All the best!

 

[minnie-apple-mouse]

I must be phrasing things incorrectly because I don't see a good that I can purchase as elitism. To me reserving that item as only for certain people is elitism.

At Universal, I can stay at their most expensive resort or their lower cost resort or stay offsite and in all three cases if I spend enough money via resort costs or by buying the passes outright I can use the express feature. I can't do that at Disney at least not right now.

At Universal-you can't stay Value or offsite and obtain Unlimited Express Pass-which are only offered to the onsite Deluxe elite.

You can't use FP+ at Disney if you stay at different resorts or offsite?

 

[MrInfinity]

That's a whole different argument. You can't compare the two sytems on a 1 to 1 basis based on that assumption. Of course I don't think they've ever announced percentages so it's all speculation. That said I agree that they've released more which increases wait times for both lines which makes the system problematic whether you use the system or not. You just can't say it simply more people using it based on all the other factors.

Cold hard facts: Far more people are using FP+ than ever used FP-. Don't live w your head in the sand. Accept it for what it is and try to figure out new ways to get on what you used to. It's a new challenge but very doable. Or, believe what you want and just be mad at Disney for ruining your vacations.

By the way it doesn't take "officially released Disney numbers" to make heads or tails of what's going on here.

Also "releasing more" does not "increase wait times". It simply changes the percentage of standby to fastpass riders. The average wait time will still be the same. Before the wait time may have been 20 min now it's 30 min but now 1 out of 2 people rides it via fastpass in 10, making the average wait STILL 20 min! The rides, capacities, and desired number of rides per person are unchanged. Only the queuing system is changed such that more people now use FastPass to ride them.

But resort experience already impacts park experience: on site gets EMH, off site doesn't.
On site gets 60 day advance booking, off site gets 30. It's a pretty standard practice in the industry to give on site guests park advantages.

Agree! Disney has every incentive to make the experience that much better for resort guests. Not to be taken to extremes, Disney would not just close the park to offsite, but little by little you know they will drive up the advantage to being onsite and reduce the value in staying offsite. It's just business. You go after your most profitable customers.

 

[minnie-apple-mouse]

Cold hard facts: Far more people are using FP+ than ever used FP-.

Also "releasing more" does not "increase wait times". It simply changes the percentage of standby to fastpass riders. The average wait time will still be the same. Before the wait time may have been 20 min now it's 30 min but now 1 out of 2 people rides it via fastpass in 10, making the average wait STILL 20 min! The rides, capacities, and desired number of rides per person are unchanged. Only the queuing system is changed such that more people now use FastPass to ride them.

But could it "decrease" overall wait times?

If 90% now have no wait, and 10% wait longer SB times than in the past, wouldn't overall the wait time be less? Even though the posted SB time would be very high.

Than say 30% FP with no wait, and 70% SB with a long wait (even if not as long as now)?

In other words, if 100% were given FP+, there would be basically no wait at all-its must have a curve somewhere that decreases overall wait time per 1,000 rides.