Why no availability for first week of December?

[wdwfreak]

We're seven months out for our trip in December. We've been booked for a 2 bdrm at SSR as that is our home resort. There is NO (or only partial) availability at any other resorts for 12/5 - 12/13. I don't remember there ever not being at least a couple of other resorts with availability. Why are pickings so slim? I've waitlisted BWV and AKV. What are the chances one of them will come through? Thanks everyone!

 

[disneynutz]

More new buyers competing for inventory at 7 months.

Bill

 

[supersnoop]

The first week of December has always been the most popular time for DVC, booking up at the 11-month mark. It's the lowest point season, Christmas festivities are in full swing, but crowds are still low. You should never expect to switch resorts at 7-months if you're visiting in December.

 

[drusba]

Highest DVC demand time of the year. Not easy to get anything at 7 months out for a week other than SSR and potentially OKW (which actually still has 2BRs open) during that time although AKV Kidani is sometimes open at 7 months out and usually only missing a day or two in a week creating better odds for wait list. Wait lists do sometimes come through but cannot offer odds except to say that your odds are best if you waitlisted for a 2BR (not a lock-off) at Kidani rather than a 2BR at Jambo and a pool/garden view at BWV rather than standard or boardwalk view.

 

[magicaldisney]

My personal opinion... if want any chance of switching, you need to stalk the availability yourself and not wait for the waitlist system to pick anything up. You are waitlisting a group of nights instead of just one night, so someone has to cancel that whole time in order for you to get it. And, if someone cancels, before the system picks it up for you, chances are someone who has been stalking will snag a day or two and then there's no availability for you because you are waiting for the "whole" time frame.

 

[suebeelin]

Buy where you want to or don't mind staying -- my mantra. We usually go first two weeks of December and book 11mo out. We bought BLT last year to have the 11mo advantage. We want the std BWV and BLT rooms (saves points!).

If we get SSR points, it wiil be to go last minute or within the 7 mo window. Or for other non home resorts...

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

You are saying you've always had other resort options for the first week of Dec? Or just at other times? First week of Dec has been difficult for many years. The second week isn't quite as bad but is still popular.

 

[ParkHoppers]

Seems like the risk of buying at the resort with cheapest points with an intention to stay where they really want booking at the 7 month window is now becoming a much clearer issue than in past years. First week of December is the number one DVC week of the year as far as I know so that week is not a good example of 7 month booking availablity but with what a Disney vacation cost minus the lodging( a lot )people need to make sure the risk of not staying where you really want is worth the limited savings at the point of buy in.

 

[DebbieB]

When I bought in 1999, the choices were OKW or BWV. I wanted BWV for early December, so I bought there. I'be always made my reservation at exactly 11 months and had some close calls.

 

[jo-jo]

But keep looking. We own at SSR and BLT. At 11 months, I booked a studio at BLT for last couple days in Nov and first week in Dec. At 8 months I starting looking at BCV or BWV, nothing, nothing, nothing. At 7 months, I got two nights at BWV, then setup a waitlist for more days. Really wanted BCV, but BCV had maybe a day or two during the whole month of Nov and nothing until close to Christmas. Four days later, three nights at BCV popped up and then a one night waitlist came thru.

 

[CarolMN]

While it's always been quite popular, I agree with the OP that booking early December at 7 months has been getting more difficult over the past several years. Demand for that time has definitely increased. Some of that is due to more DVC members wanting to travel at that time. But IMO, most of the increased demand is coming from the general public who are eager to rent DVC reservations.

More members are choosing to rent and their customers are catching on to the need to book prior to 7 months for the near park resorts. The brokers are making it relatively easy to turn unneeded points into cash. Note that the brokers are paying a premium to the near-park resort owners who are willing to rent during the home resort priority period. Even with that, they don't appear to be able to satisfy the demand for some times of the year. Obviously, if owners choose to book during the home resort priority period, there will be less space for those who must wait until the 7 month window opens to book.

The lesson for us is to BUY WHERE YOU DON'T MIND STAYING - ESPECIALLY IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL DURING POPULAR TIMES. The odds of successfully changing to a near park resort at 7 months are no longer in our favor.

 

[ziravan]

While it's always been quite popular, I agree with the OP that booking early December at 7 months has been getting more difficult over the past several years. Demand for that time has definitely increased. Some of that is due to more DVC members wanting to travel at that time. But IMO, most of the increased demand is coming from the general public who are eager to rent DVC reservations.

More members are choosing to rent and their customers are catching on to the need to book prior to 7 months for the near park resorts. The brokers are making it relatively easy to turn unneeded points into cash. Note that the brokers are paying a premium to the near-park resort owners who are willing to rent during the home resort priority period. Even with that, they don't appear to be able to satisfy the demand for some times of the year. Obviously, if owners choose to book during the home resort priority period, there will be less space for those who must wait until the 7 month window opens to book.

The lesson for us is to BUY WHERE YOU DON'T MIND STAYING - ESPECIALLY IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL DURING POPULAR TIMES. The odds of successfully changing to a near park resort at 7 months are no longer in our favor.

I just listed Poly points thinking they would book out Christmas or NYE. Nope. They rented quickly and went for a reservation just on the other side of the current 7 month window. If you can't find a Poly reservation in the morning, that's partially why.

So. You may be on to something.

Combine that with my own early Dec reservation, and I'm double booking my points for early Dec.

Here's the thing: I've seen post after post saying that it's crazy to spend so much for PVB points, or for a resort with no 1 or 2 BR. Or that availability will be there because of how many rooms there'll be. Or demand will go down after other owners have a chance to try it. I don't think so.

I think you're seeing a taste of what trying to book at PVB at 7 months will be like. "Buy where you want to stay." Indeed. I don't see demand decreasing during the popular DVC times.

 

[Minniesgal]

Something else that may be a factor is the more people hear how bad it is at 7 months the more people might decide just to stay at home and book before 11 months. I know we have recently got to the point we prefer to have a home resort secured than fuss at 7 months. Less trade outs means less available rooms.

 

[ziravan]

Something else that may be a factor is the more people hear how bad it is at 7 months the more people might decide just to stay at home and book before 11 months. I know we have recently got to the point we prefer to have a home resort secured than fuss at 7 months. Less trade outs means less available rooms.

Or, as in my case, seeing and reading about the increased difficulties of booking at 7 months and taking "Buy where you want to stay" to heart when buying.

I bought at two resorts: BCV for an EPCOT resort, and PVB for a monorail resort. I book at 11 months. In the case of PVB, I have a fixed week. I bought with the intention of always being booked at 12 months and 11 months...

 

[Minniesgal]

Or, as in my case, seeing and reading about the increased difficulties of booking at 7 months and taking "Buy where you want to stay" to heart when buying.

I bought at two resorts: BCV for an EPCOT resort, and PVB for a monorail resort. I book at 11 months. In the case of PVB, I have a fixed week. I bought with the intention of always being booked at 12 months and 11 months...

This was kinda my point. The more people say , it's getting worse, it's getting harder to switch at 11 months, the more it is likely to lead to more people staying home as they perceive it is too much hassle at 7 months.

 

[ziravan]

This was kinda my point. The more people say , it's getting worse, it's getting harder to switch at 11 months, the more it is likely to lead to more people staying home as they perceive it is too much hassle at 7 months.

Right. I was just saying that concept doesn't just include current owners staying home, but influences where resale buyers are buying.

My guess is that new resale buyers do far more research than new direct buyers and add on buyers of both stripes have first hand experience.

I also think the new direct price points for sold out resorts are going to push more buyers to resale, and with that move comes the research that leads to more "buying where you want to stay."

 

[skier_pete]

I've only been a member for a year, but no availability in early December doesn't seem overly surprising, even in a 2-bedroom.

 

[Mrs.Milo]

When we bought points at OKW the first year DVC was selling, we wanted to go that week in December because of Christmas decorations, great point value, perfect weather, and low crowd levels in the parks. All of that is still true today, and if you are older and don't have to worry about school-age children anymore it's another reason to go that week.

 

[lvforvaca]

I do think Online Availability tool is adding to more people switching at 7 months and there being less availability.

 

[MapleGirl]

Our waitlist for a studio at BWV came through for November 29-December 4. Very happy!