Why did the bailout fail??

I still think this whole bailout proposal is a mistake. We are essentially taking bad debt from homeowners that over spent and can't make there payments, from Banks that made bad loans and you and I get to pay for it all. Personally I think we should do nothing. Let some of these mortgage companies fail, let the credit industry tighten up the reins so that you need to have decent debt to income ratios and a good credit score to get a loan. People have been running up debt uncontrollably for far too long.

You are misinformed. This is not a bail out homeowners who overpaid for their house bill. Bush had no intention of bailing out those mistakes. Nor really, should he. This is a far, far bigger issue than your neighbor with an adjustable rate mortgage they are going to foreclose upon. This is about the stock market, and bigger businesses- everybody gets money from someone else. Big Business and Big Government doesn't just get money from their own personal piggybank. All their assets are not liquid, and they borrow to invest, make payroll, etc. If those companies or even governments can't get the cash flow they need, then it shuts down. Period. It affects every last one of us, because we all either have jobs that have to pay us, or shop at stores that need cash flow. Folks living off the grid are okay in this scenario. ;)

I am no expert, and it is way more complex than that, but I think that is the basics anyway.
 
Again, if its such a great plan, why even depend on the Repubs. All they needed was 11 more. The democrats couldn't convince 11 of 92 nay votes?

It's not a great plan... it's a neccessry one.

The uneducated public heard about the initial proposal which was a pure bailout.

But the proposal they voted down had the idea of warrents & fair market auditing changes.

1 out of 10 understand those 2 terms.

Hopefully they will mandate those 2 items for the next bill and someone will educate congress and the public on it.

This could end up costing the Government trillions if something is not done.
 
You are misinformed. This is not a bail out homeowners who overpaid for their house bill.

I am no expert, and it is way more complex than that, but I think that is the basics anyway.

I'm not misinformed I just oversimplified the problem. There are several things going on. Not the least of which is that we have a housing market where Banks allowed consumers to borrow much more than their homes were worth counting on the collateral to appreciate.

The reason why you don't see this in Commercial Real Estate is that Banks require more equity in these projects. I don't know of any bank the will make a CRE loan at 100% loan to value. They range from 60% to 80% generally with financial covenants that allow the banks to call the loan due or at least quit advancing funds if the projects aren't on track.
 
You are misinformed. This is not a bail out homeowners who overpaid for their house bill.
Agreed, home owners that default will lose their home and receive no relief(from this bill).
Question would be, who would own that now foreclosed home?
 

I saw this editorial on CNN and I'm inclined to agree. (and I'm employed by a Bank)

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/29/miron.bailout/index.html


Indeed an interesting editorial


Editor's note: Jeffrey A. Miron is senior lecturer in economics at Harvard University. A Libertarian, he was one of 166 academic economists who signed a letter to congressional leaders last week opposing the government bailout plan.



CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts (CNN) -- Congress has balked at the Bush administration's proposed $700 billion bailout of Wall Street. Under this plan, the Treasury would have bought the "troubled assets" of financial institutions in an attempt to avoid economic meltdown.

This bailout was a terrible idea. Here's why.

The current mess would never have occurred in the absence of ill-conceived federal policies. The federal government chartered Fannie Mae in 1938 and Freddie Mac in 1970; these two mortgage lending institutions are at the center of the crisis. The government implicitly promised these institutions that it would make good on their debts, so Fannie and Freddie took on huge amounts of excessive risk.

Worse, beginning in 1977 and even more in the 1990s and the early part of this century, Congress pushed mortgage lenders and Fannie/Freddie to expand subprime lending. The industry was happy to oblige, given the implicit promise of federal backing, and subprime lending soared.

This subprime lending was more than a minor relaxation of existing credit guidelines. This lending was a wholesale abandonment of reasonable lending practices in which borrowers with poor credit characteristics got mortgages they were ill-equipped to handle.

Once housing prices declined and economic conditions worsened, defaults and delinquencies soared, leaving the industry holding large amounts of severely depreciated mortgage assets.

The fact that government bears such a huge responsibility for the current mess means any response should eliminate the conditions that created this situation in the first place, not attempt to fix bad government with more government.

The obvious alternative to a bailout is letting troubled financial institutions declare bankruptcy. Bankruptcy means that shareholders typically get wiped out and the creditors own the company.

Bankruptcy does not mean the company disappears; it is just owned by someone new (as has occurred with several airlines). Bankruptcy punishes those who took excessive risks while preserving those aspects of a businesses that remain profitable.

In contrast, a bailout transfers enormous wealth from taxpayers to those who knowingly engaged in risky subprime lending. Thus, the bailout encourages companies to take large, imprudent risks and count on getting bailed out by government. This "moral hazard" generates enormous distortions in an economy's allocation of its financial resources.

Thoughtful advocates of the bailout might concede this perspective, but they argue that a bailout is necessary to prevent economic collapse. According to this view, lenders are not making loans, even for worthy projects, because they cannot get capital. This view has a grain of truth; if the bailout does not occur, more bankruptcies are possible and credit conditions may worsen for a time.

Talk of Armageddon, however, is ridiculous scare-mongering. If financial institutions cannot make productive loans, a profit opportunity exists for someone else. This might not happen instantly, but it will happen.

Further, the current credit freeze is likely due to Wall Street's hope of a bailout; bankers will not sell their lousy assets for 20 cents on the dollar if the government might pay 30, 50, or 80 cents.

The costs of the bailout, moreover, are almost certainly being understated. The administration's claim is that many mortgage assets are merely illiquid, not truly worthless, implying taxpayers will recoup much of their $700 billion.

If these assets are worth something, however, private parties should want to buy them, and they would do so if the owners would accept fair market value. Far more likely is that current owners have brushed under the rug how little their assets are worth.

The bailout has more problems. The final legislation will probably include numerous side conditions and special dealings that reward Washington lobbyists and their clients.

Anticipation of the bailout will engender strategic behavior by Wall Street institutions as they shuffle their assets and position their balance sheets to maximize their take. The bailout will open the door to further federal meddling in financial markets.

So what should the government do? Eliminate those policies that generated the current mess. This means, at a general level, abandoning the goal of home ownership independent of ability to pay. This means, in particular, getting rid of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, along with policies like the Community Reinvestment Act that pressure banks into subprime lending.

The right view of the financial mess is that an enormous fraction of subprime lending should never have occurred in the first place. Someone has to pay for that. That someone should not be, and does not need to be, the U.S. taxpayer.
 
Does anyone posting here understand this was a GOP bill. This was a bill put forward by the President. This was his solution. Does anyone remember that Bush is a Republican? Bush brought the bill to Congress.

And McCain didn't like it and rightfully stepped in.
 
I'm not misinformed I just oversimplified the problem. There are several things going on. Not the least of which is that we have a housing market where Banks allowed consumers to borrow much more than their homes were worth counting on the collateral to appreciate.

The reason why you don't see this in Commercial Real Estate is that Banks require more equity in these projects. I don't know of any bank the will make a CRE loan at 100% loan to value. They range from 60% to 80% generally with financial covenants that allow the banks to call the loan due or at least quit advancing funds if the projects aren't on track.

The million dollar question - why do banks require more equity in CRE loans? And better cash flow. And multiple repayment sources (personal guarantees) And perfect credit histories.

Because the government isn't in the business of subsidizing the CRE market and the lenders don't view the government as an implied guarantor. There's no Fannie/Freddie/FHA/HUD equivelants in commercial real estate.
 
Someone please explain this to me. To win a vote you need a majority vote, correct? Don't the Democrats control the majority of the House? Couldn't the Democrats have passed this bill with their own votes alone? There really is no need make sure the votes are half each.


Can you please explain to me how you are saying it is the Democrats responsibility to pass a bill given by the Republican President?

Do the Republicans not support their President anymore?
 
Who was the bill introduced by? This was Bush's bill all along. This was his solution and this was what he wanted. He and Paulson introduced the framework of the bill.



Watch the video. Watch it all.

The original plan,Bush's plan was 3 pages long. By Friday it had grown to 110 pages. You can't still call it Bush's plan. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080926/ap_on_bi_ge/bailout_paper_trail
You can read it here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/28/bailout-legislation-full_n_130063.html
 
The million dollar question - why do banks require more equity in CRE loans? And better cash flow. And multiple repayment sources (personal guarantees) And perfect credit histories.

Because the government isn't in the business of subsidizing the CRE market and the lenders don't view the government as an implied guarantor. There's no Fannie/Freddie/FHA/HUD equivelants in commercial real estate.

Valid points...

Now I will ask you a question.

Without the honorably intended incentives that helped real estate boom over the last decade or so, what would our economy look like over that time period without those incentives?

Not claiming I know anything but it was pretty flat(at best) in all other sectors over that time, cant imagine how it everything would be without all that equity cash flow.
 
Valid points...

Now I will ask you a question.

Without the honorably intended incentives that helped real estate boom over the last decade or so, what would our economy look like over that time period without those incentives?

Not claiming I know anything but it was pretty flat(at best) in all other sectors over that time, cant imagine how it everything would be without all that equity cash flow.

I think it's pretty obvious that the recent economy was at least partially fueled by the residential housing bubble. And obviously, hindsight is 20/20.

But I'm frustrated by the fact that we're going to go forward with this huge bailout and most people won't even take advantage of that hindsight and admit that our government housing policies, well-intentioned as they are, have had some very serious unintended consequences. And that they need to be reigned in.

Do you really think an Obama administration is going to reverse those policies? I think it's a pretty good bet to say government programs to increase minority home-ownership will be expanded, if he's elected.

Again - I think of the definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result. :sad2:
 
Do you really think an Obama administration is going to reverse those policies? I think it's a pretty good bet to say government programs to increase minority home-ownership will be expanded, if he's elected.

Again - I think of the definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result. :sad2:

I dont think either candidate would reverse polocies currently in place to help prospective home buyers. And not sure why you feel that Obama would be more prone to increase minority home ownership vs McCain.

As for doing the same thing over and over... Tis the banks that need to learn, now what will the lesson learned be?

A) Use Caution when passing out loans

B) You will be bailed out
 
I think it's pretty obvious that the recent economy was at least partially fueled by the residential housing bubble. And obviously, hindsight is 20/20.

But I'm frustrated by the fact that we're going to go forward with this huge bailout and most people won't even take advantage of that hindsight and admit that our government housing policies, well-intentioned as they are, have had some very serious unintended consequences. And that they need to be reigned in.

Do you really think an Obama administration is going to reverse those policies? I think it's a pretty good bet to say government programs to increase minority home-ownership will be expanded, if he's elected.

Again - I think of the definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result. :sad2:


I must be confused but what does the government housing policies have to do with this? Or do you mean Freddie and Fanny? I was thinking about welfare housing.

And I admit that I did not well with economics in college.

Oh and I agree with your definition of insantiy. Quit doing the same thing over and over. We obviously need to change something with corporate america, at least as far as banks, wall street, etc. it doesn't seem to be working.
 
I dont think either candidate would reverse polocies currently in place to help prospective home buyers.

And you think this is a good idea? Just keep doing what we've been doing, with Fannie/Freddie/HUD?


And not sure why you feel that Obama would be more prone to increase minority home ownership vs McCain.

Because the special interest groups that lobby for relaxed lending standards are his supporters, both idologicially and financially.

As for doing the same thing over and over... Tis the banks that need to learn, now what will the lesson learned be?

A) Use Caution when passing out loans


B) You will be bailed out

And how do they answer the charges that they are bigots if that caution means fewer minority loans, as it surely will? What happens when the government, under existing CRA regulations, refuses to allow them to make aquisitions or expand their branching networks?

must be confused but what does the government housing policies have to do with this? Or do you mean Freddie and Fanny? I was thinking about welfare housing.

Yes, I mean Freddie and Fannie. And HUD, as the overall driver of government policy. Perhaps you were unaware that the government sets very specific annual goals for those entities - low and moderate income goals, underserved goals, and special affordable housing goals. You can view their Annual Housing Activity Reports here:

http://www.hud.gov/offices/hsg/gse/reportgse.cfm
 
Another trip back in the time machine:

http://articles.latimes.com/1999/may/31/news/mn-42807

Minorities’ Home Ownership Booms Under Clinton but Still Lags Whites’
By Ronald Brownstein
May 31, 1999 in print edition A-5

It’s one of the hidden success stories of the Clinton era. In the great housing boom of the 1990s, black and Latino homeownership has surged to the highest level ever recorded. The number of African Americans owning their own home is now increasing nearly three times as fast as the number of whites; the number of Latino homeowners is growing nearly five times as fast as that of whites.

These numbers are dramatic enough to deserve more detail. When President Clinton took office in 1993, 42% of African Americans and 39% of Latinos owned their own home. By this spring, those figures had jumped to 46.9% of blacks and 46.2% of Latinos.

That’s a lot of new picket fences. Since 1994, when the numbers really took off, the number of black and Latino homeowners has increased by 2 million. In all, the minority homeownership rate is on track to increase more in the 1990s than in any decade this century except the 1940s, when minorities joined in the wartime surge out of the Depression.

This trend is good news on many fronts. Homeownership stabilizes neighborhoods and even families. Housing scholar William C. Apgar, now an assistant secretary of Housing and Urban Development, says that research shows homeowners are more likely than renters to participate in their community. The children of homeowners even tend to perform better in school. Most significantly, increased homeownership allows minority families, who have accumulated far less wealth than whites, to amass assets and transmit them to future generations.

What explains the surge? The answer starts with the economy. Historically low rates of minority unemployment have created a larger pool of qualified buyers. And the lowest interest rates in years have made homes more affordable for white and minority buyers alike.

But the economy isn’t the whole story. As HUD Secretary Andrew Cuomo says: “There have been points in the past when the economy has done well but minority homeownership has not increased proportionally.” Case in point: Despite generally good times in the 1980s, homeownership among blacks and Latinos actually declined slightly, while rising slightly among whites.

All of this suggests that Clinton’s efforts to increase minority access to loans and capital also have spurred this decade’s gains. Under Clinton, bank regulators have breathed the first real life into enforcement of the Community Reinvestment Act, a 20-year-old statute meant to combat “redlining” by requiring banks to serve their low-income communities. The administration also has sent a clear message by stiffening enforcement of the fair housing and fair lending laws. The bottom line: Between 1993 and 1997, home loans grew by 72% to blacks and by 45% to Latinos, far faster than the total growth rate.

Lenders also have opened the door wider to minorities because of new initiatives at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac–the giant federally chartered corporations that play critical, if obscure, roles in the home finance system. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy mortgages from lenders and bundle them into securities; that provides lenders the funds to lend more.

In 1992, Congress mandated that Fannie and Freddie increase their purchases of mortgages for low-income and medium-income borrowers. Operating under that requirement, Fannie Mae, in particular, has been aggressive and creative in stimulating minority gains. It has aimed extensive advertising campaigns at minorities that explain how to buy a home and opened three dozen local offices to encourage lenders to serve these markets. Most importantly, Fannie Mae has agreed to buy more loans with very low down payments–or with mortgage payments that represent an unusually high percentage of a buyer’s income. That’s made banks willing to lend to lower-income families they once might have rejected.

But for all that progress, the black and Latino homeownership rates, at about 46%, still significantly trail the white rate, which is nearing 73%. Much of that difference represents structural social disparities–in education levels, wealth and the percentage of single-parent families–that will only change slowly. Still, Apgar says, HUD’s analysis suggests there are enough qualified buyers to move the minority homeownership rate into the mid-50% range.

The market itself will probably produce some of that progress. For many builders and lenders, serving minority buyers is now less a social obligation than a business opportunity. Because blacks and Latinos, as groups, are younger than whites, many experts believe they will continue to lead the housing market for years.

But with discrimination in the banking system not yet eradicated, maintaining the momentum of the 1990s will also require a continuing nudge from Washington. One key is to defend the Community Reinvestment Act, which the Senate shortsightedly voted to retrench recently. Clinton has threatened a veto if the House concurs.

The top priority may be to ask more of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The two companies are now required to devote 42% of their portfolios to loans for low- and moderate-income borrowers; HUD, which has the authority to set the targets, is poised to propose an increase this summer. Although Fannie Mae actually has exceeded its target since 1994, it is resisting any hike. It argues that a higher target would only produce more loan defaults by pressuring banks to accept unsafe borrowers. HUD says Fannie Mae is resisting more low-income loans because they are less profitable.

Barry Zigas, who heads Fannie Mae’s low-income efforts, is undoubtedly correct when he argues, “There is obviously a limit beyond which [we] can’t push [the banks] to produce.” But with the housing market still sizzling, minority unemployment down and Fannie Mae enjoying record profits (over $3.4 billion last year), it doesn’t appear that the limit has been reached.

All signs point toward a high-velocity collision this summer between two strong-willed protagonists: HUD’s Cuomo and Fannie Mae CEO Franklin D. Raines, the first African American to hold the post. Better they reach a reasonable agreement that provides more fuel for the extraordinary boom transforming millions of minority families from renters into owners.

Got that? Congress told the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to buy up the paper and transform these marginally-qualified loans into what’s known as mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The purchase of these loans made them much more attractive to lenders, who rushed to create more of them. Fannie and Freddie then kept buying the paper and turning them into MBSs and selling them to investors, who assumed that the government would back the GSE securities Congress mandated into existence.

And there are actually people who don't see the insanity of continuing with these market-distorting policies?
 
In other words - Dems don't want all the blame if this turns out to be the wrong plan.

My thoughts exactly. I'm tired of both sides and I was glad when the bill was shot down. I am sorry but when I see my tax money being wasted by congress everyday over pure crude I am more than a little hesitant to give them $700 billion more with no assurances that this plan would even work, just a hope and a prayer and some pixie dust and everythings all fixed :rolleyes1. Sorry need more than that if you want my money.
 
The million dollar question - why do banks require more equity in CRE loans? And better cash flow. And multiple repayment sources (personal guarantees) And perfect credit histories.

Because the government isn't in the business of subsidizing the CRE market and the lenders don't view the government as an implied guarantor. There's no Fannie/Freddie/FHA/HUD equivelants in commercial real estate.

That's an interesting million dollar question. I can see how information like this might make one reconsider the bailout plan.

Maybe there should be no deal. Maybe the best thing for the economy is that there is no bailout package. I might be able to buy that. And I think most Americans are willing to buy that too.

But if you want to make that argument, you actually have to stand up and make the argument. The Republicans could have pulled out of the negotiations and nominated one person to explain to the American people why doing nothing was the better option.

It would have to be a reasoned and persuasive argument, one that everyone could understand. If they really wanted to make their point, they could have found some prominent Democrats to stand with them while they made their case.

But that is what would have happened in the universe where the current Republican party is not a children's party.

In our universe, the Republicans are children so they acted differently. Republicans pretended they were negotiating with the Democrats and the Bush administration. Then they pretended they supported the deal. They even got McCain to say he supported the deal. Then they pretended they had enough votes.

Then they surprised America. SURPRISE AMERICA!!!

None of it was true. The best part of the surprise is that they promised one thing to the markets and pulled the rug out at the last moment. Markets love surprises. That's why the markets got so excited today.

Now here's where it gets real good. After tepidly negotiating, after pretending to be on board with the agreement, after not delivering the votes - they blamed everything on a the Democrats. Well, mostly they blamed it on a mean old lady who they are pretending offended them.

I heard that after they blamed Democrats for everything, the Republicans rented a Burger King for a few hours and went crazy. They all got to wear funny hats and eat whoppers till they got sick.
 


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