Who is going to win American Idol this week?

[MsDisney23]

Who do you think is going to win? I think it is going to be close!

 

[Obi-Wan Pinobi]

How close do you think it'll be?

This article about the AI concert here selling out was in the Sunday Richmond paper. Check this line --

"I knew there would be people to talk to," said Tesha Shay of Ruther Glen, who was in line by 5 a.m. She's a fan of Chris Daughtry, the former Virginian who was eliminated from Fox's televised singing competition on May 10.

Like most of the people in yesterday's line, she planned to vote for Taylor Hicks on Tuesday (the winner is announced on Wednesday's telecast) rather than the other finalist, Katharine McPhee. "He's an old soul."

Yesterday at work I was talking to someone about AI. They were an Elliott fan but planned to vote for Taylor. So if Elliott and Chris fans in Richmond have tastes in music comparable to their fans elsewhere, then their fans will largely vote for Taylor.

I don't think it will be close. I'm guessing a 60/40 split for Taylor.

 

[Savsmommy]

Taylor

I wanted Chris to win though.

 

[4nana]

I thought Chris would win, but I was wrong.

So I'll chose and also think America will pick TAYLOR!

They interviewed Simon this a.m. and he also thinks Taylor represents mid America.

 

[lillygator]

As close as the vote was last week I think it is any man's or woman's game!

 

[ohiominnie]

Taylor for this household. Unless he REALLY flubbs up and Katherine has 3 "over the rainbow" songs (which I doubt b/c she's never been able to pull of two truly great songs in a row)

 

[bicker]

There are some very big wild-cards. First, of course, the three of them were within 1% of each other last week -- you cannot get any closer than that. Second, while some Elliott fans will go for Taylor, just on musical style, there are a lot of Elliott fans that will vote against Taylor, just on performance style. I think that's a 50/50 split. Third, and most importantly, many people tune into the finale who haven't tuned into the show throughout the season. These folks haven't fallen in love with either of the two, and so they'll vote solely on tonight's show. Taylor was an acquired taste, so that will work against him. Katherine, on the other hand, tends to gain fans quickly, and then loses them over time. That won't work against her tonight.

So it should be very very close.

 

[Planogirl]

I'll go with Taylor. I think that he has the most rabid fans and they'll make sure that they get their votes in!

 

[Obi-Wan Pinobi]

Third, and most importantly, many people tune into the finale who haven't tuned into the show throughout the season.

I'll go with Taylor. I think that he has the most rabid fans and they'll make sure that they get their votes in!

I quoted both because I think they relate to each other.

Those that Bicker described - the casual viewers who tune in for the finale - may try to vote, but if they don't have any luck getting through, they'll give up. They also may not be repeat voters. If they get through once, they'll be happy and can say they voted for their favorite. They'll base their choice on tonight's performances alone, so for them it will come down to how well Taylor and Kat do tonight.

The fan base that Planogirl mentioned -- the Soul Patrol vs. the McPhans with the McPheever - will play a big part. Which of the two has the most stubborn fans who won't quit until they've voted as many times as they can during the allotted time period.

The big question mark seems to be how will fans of past performers vote. I'm thinking Randy and Simon may be right in an interview last week -- the south will pull behind Taylor. He'll pick up support from Chris' and Bucky's fans as well as Elliott's.

To quote Dennis Miller -- of course, that's just my opinion; I could be wrong.