The first weekend will be the weekend that they tape all the holiday stuff in MK. This brings a lot of people in..both locals as well as regular vacationers. MK can be really crowded on those days. The other parks are pretty decent. But be aware, that is the start of the PopWarner kids stay there.
The following weekend is okay. Yes, it is MouseFest time but that really doesn't impact the park crowds much. There was one really big meet last year for the Safari ride where over 250 MouseFesters showed up. Caused quite the commotion. I'm glad I wasn't in the regular line to ride when we were ushered in, to ride together. But, I don't believe that is going to be repeated this year. It was a very unwieldy sized group. For the most part, MF doesn't impact the parks all that much. Sure, there were 800 or so that registered last year, with many attendees who never registered. But, even if you spread 2,000 people in there, it wouldn't be all that noticible. The crowds are just not that big that weekend.
But again, that will be the end of the PopWarner stay...you may find that some families have opted to stay until Sunday, rather than leave on Sat....that has been my experience.