Which option would you choose? BLT vs SSR

[skier_pete]

I am assuming you are looking at a studio. I've been tracking booking patterns for all the resorts at Studios. Basically, you can get into a BLT Lake View at 7-months for about 2/3 of the year. The pattern (broken down into 1/2 month intervals) is as follows:



Green shows that that whole section of time is available. Mostly means there is some time not available, but more than 50% is available. Red means little to no availability. Understand that this is a survey from May 2014 to May 2015. It does not guarantee that future patterns will remain the same.

The pattern as you can see is that you cannot get into BLT at 7-months for the Disney Marathon(Jan), the Princess Marathon(Feb), Easter, and 4th of July, but otherwise can from January to September. October through December is another matter, and it would be pretty difficult to get a week at BLT at that time of year without owning there. (Note that late February isn't 100% filled in, which is why I haven't posted these surveys yet.)

So, my advice would be that if you can anticipate that you won't be traveling during October-December very often, you can buy at SSR and be pretty safe that you will be able to stay at BLT. If you buy at SSR there is a good chance if you travel October-December you will have to choose between AKL, OKW, or SSR as those are the only ones that will have any availability at 7 months, and sometimes not all 3.

 

[suebeelin]

I am assuming you are looking at a studio. I've been tracking booking patterns for all the resorts at Studios. Basically, you can get into a BLT Lake View at 7-months for about 2/3 of the year. The pattern (broken down into 1/2 month intervals) is as follows:

View attachment 99023

Green shows that that whole section of time is available. Mostly means there is some time not available, but more than 50% is available. Red means little to no availability. Understand that this is a survey from May 2014 to May 2015. It does not guarantee that future patterns will remain the same.

The pattern as you can see is that you cannot get into BLT at 7-months for the Disney Marathon(Jan), the Princess Marathon(Feb), Easter, and 4th of July, but otherwise can from January to September. October through December is another matter, and it would be pretty difficult to get a week at BLT at that time of year without owning there. (Note that late February isn't 100% filled in, which is why I haven't posted these surveys yet.)

So, my advice would be that if you can anticipate that you won't be traveling during October-December very often, you can buy at SSR and be pretty safe that you will be able to stay at BLT. If you buy at SSR there is a good chance if you travel October-December you will have to choose between AKL, OKW, or SSR as those are the only ones that will have any availability at 7 months, and sometimes not all 3.

That's awesome. Any chance you have that chart for std rooms at BLT and bwv? I'm also interested in std 1 and 2bds, but any info is good info... Thx!!

 

[supersnoop]

Personally, I chose both. I think the extra cost of BLT is offset by the extended contract and lower dues. The home resort advantage of BLT is important since it's the only resort where you can walk to the Magic Kingdom. SSR, however, is still the best value, so I use it for any stays booked with less than 7 months notice, or if I can add on a day or two to a home resort booking.

 

[skier_pete]

That's awesome. Any chance you have that chart for std rooms at BLT and bwv? I'm also interested in std 1 and 2bds, but any info is good info... Thx!!

I really am not ready to publish the whole thing. It takes a bit of effort to convert the files to a picture format, and I only want to do it when they are 100% done. I will probably do so in the next month or so when the patterns are completely filled.

I only did the studios and occasionally some 1-bedrooms (if a resort only has 1 booking category I did the 1-bedrooms, so only for SSR, OWK, WLV, and BCV). It was a very time intensive project, taking probably about 2 hours every 2 weeks even just doing what I did. The reason I focused on the studios is (1) it's my main interest as I can't afford something larger and (2) it's the hardest booking category to get. To do all the 1 and 2 bedrooms would've probably taken me another 5 hours every two weeks - time I just don't have.

What I will tell you is this:

The standard view rooms at BLT are > 50 % occupied by the 7-month mark at all times except early March and early September. Generally these rooms are gone by the 9 month mark.
The standard view rooms at BWV are a little more available, but only scattered in Jan-Aug. Sept through Dec there's zero availability.

Basically - if you want a "low point" room at any resort that has them (AKV is the other one) you realistically need to own there. A few days may be possible, but getting full weeks is going to be pretty rare.

We currently own at AKV, but I do have to say, when I did some calculations after I knew more, it's not a terrible idea to buy at BLT with the purpose of stay Standard View. However, it is probably about the same cost to buy enough points at SSR and stay Lake View - which again you can do much of the year. If we buy more points, I will likely do one of these two things. Until I stay at the property, I won't make that decision. (I've stayed at SSR, and didn't think very highly of it, so I am not sure if I would buy there even for the savings. We bought at AKV over SSR because even though you save money at SSR, we'd prefer to have AKV be our fallback resort if we can't get in anywhere else at 7-months. The cost difference between the AKV and SSR points are $200 a year, and I'd rather pay $200 more and stay where I want.

(While people definitely need to factor in the buy-in cost, you should remember that the real money is spent on the annual dues. The buy-in (for resale) will be less than 20% of the overall cost of the contract.)

 

[suebeelin]

Thank you skier_pete! We have BLT and BWV, and almost always stay in a 1bd or, if inviting another family, a 2bd-- and primarily std rooms. Once, however, we were able to book 11 std studios at BWV (10pt weekday, 14pt weekends per night!!) for Martin Luther king weekend for a friends/extended family celebration. That was awesome.

Yes, that looks like an incredibly time intensive project. Thank you so very much for sharing the info!!

My gut feeling is that studios will get easier to book once poly is fully sold out. The poly owners may want to stay elsewhere-and realize they want 1 or even 2 bds. I just don't think studios are going to be harder to get once poly sells out.... Because there currently are no separate living room and washer/dryer/kitchen at poly.

So, I'm going against the grain here and predict 1bds to be harder to get at the near park resorts, while competition to get studios at the near park resorts may stay the same, except during peak dvc season (I think more owners means more desire to book and competition between sept-January).

That's just my laypersons opinion. We own where we primarily want to stay, so it doesn't matter to us... and we always try to get std rooms (with the exception of one trip, as well as emergency flight cancellation last minute bookings).

I do agree that BLT is a great option relative to direct prices ($170/pt?! Are they crazy?), and the dues are currently as low as SSR. I think the current analysis is that SSR is the best cost efficient resort, with BLT being a close second, if you buy resale.

My vote for which resort to buy depends on your vacation style, and commitment to a certain resort.

If you're sure you have no interest in ever staying at SSR, Okw, or akl and you may vacation between sept-January, or certain high demand weekends, then buy BLT.

However, if you're sure you're going only in may, specifically during a low dvc season, and you are open to staying at other resorts like AKV, VWL, poly, BWV, BCV during that week in may, then go for SSR.

 

[skateshome]

WOW! Thanks for all the great info folks! After putting it all down on paper I would save a little by buying more points than needed at SSR and renting the overage......but I don't think it is enough when you look at all the hassle and concern about booking at 7 months instead of making BLT home and knowing I can get in when I want. Unless of course someone can give me a better reason. LOL! This is a great community and everyone really seems to want to help their fellow members. Hopefully I will be one of those members sooner rather than later. Peace!

 

[Dean]

WOW! Thanks for all the great info folks! After putting it all down on paper I would save a little by buying more points than needed at SSR and renting the overage......but I don't think it is enough when you look at all the hassle and concern about booking at 7 months instead of making BLT home and knowing I can get in when I want. Unless of course someone can give me a better reason. LOL! This is a great community and everyone really seems to want to help their fellow members. Hopefully I will be one of those members sooner rather than later. Peace!

I usually take a buy cheaper type of approach and not convinced that "buy where you want to stay" ends up being the best approach for most new buyers simply because most really don't know or their preferences change over the years. Better to make a bad cheaper choice than a bad more expensive one. IF you have enough knowledge and experience to truly be comfortable (not just think emotionally) that BLT is where you want to be, you should buy there, esp if you'll use the standard view option part of the time. While this would not be commercial renting under any reasonable definition, I wouldn't plan to buy extra just to rent though I would buy a large enough contract to get to at least 150 then let the best contract in the size range determine the exact number I ended up with. One can always rent privately or aggregate points to deal with current minimum rental requirements. If you decided on SSR, I would not buy extra just because it's cheaper and I would not buy specifically to rent, not worth it. BLT is likely the second best value for WDW trips currently behind SSR and ahead of AKV so it's not like you're leaving a lot of value behind if you do make the choice though there's a big gap to SSR. As you've described it, BLT is likely the best but if you're thinking BLT part of the time and then rotating around, SSR is the best by far, esp if you don't have to have a specific trip at BLT or not working about the standard view rooms.

 

[nalajms]

Option 2 - SSR home resort 210 points. $2000 less on the purchase price than BLT. Is would give me 69 points to sell to Davidss to offset dues. This would make our dues about $25 per month when averaged out.

FWIW we owned at 3 resorts then bought in at SSR last spring. The reasoning was, "why am I using my other resorts to book at 7m?". Granted, we increased our trips so I needed more points anyways. Rather than adding on at one of our home resorts, I opted to buy in at SSR.

For a portion of the year, you won't have problems booking a BLT Lake View studio at 7m, but right at 7m. If that doesn't work out, VWL will likely be wide open. And what are the chances of your vacation needs changing? Because a 1 bedroom is even more likely than a studio. And are you against split stays? We love spending half at BLT and then moving to an Epcot resort. That ups your chances.

And I would not purchase a larger contract with the intent of renting. If you need about 160 now, I'd buy 160. If/when the time comes and you need more points, then you can reconsider adding on a BLT.

 

[DisneyGirlFlorida]

As someone who just went through the same decision you are facing regarding home resort, I will pass along the advice I was given and that was mentioned here - buy where you want to stay. I completely understand the desire to purchase SSR at a much lower buy in point, and lower annual dues. I was leaning towards the same decision, and even posted here for clarity and opinions. What really changed my mind was when someone asked if I would be okay staying at SSR more often than not, even though I LOVED VGF.

Once I looked at my decision from a forward-thinking perspective, that changed my mind. I realized that in 5 or 10 years, when the initial cost is but a vague memory, if I was "always" staying at SSR and couldn't get VGF when I wanted, I would probably be very unhappy to the point of possibly regretting buying DVC at all. In other words, I wanted the choice to stay where I wanted and I didn't want to feel forced (or that I had to settle) to stay somewhere I really didn't want to because I was too cheap now to buy what I really wanted and I had to take what was available at 7 months out.

The most important piece of advice I can give is do not become impatient and do not let your emotions dictate your decision. Why are you considering a 210 point contract? Is it because you want to buy now and that's all that's available within your budget? (I did, hence my initial consideration of SSR). Do you need 210 points? If you only really need or want 150 points, but there's nothing available in BLT for that option, be patient. New contracts are coming on the market daily.

Why SSR when you know you like BLT? Is it the buy in price (It was for me, I ended up paying twice as much as I was initially planning on, but I'm 100% content with my decision.) Be totally honest with yourself and whomever is buying the contract with you. This is a 40-50 year commitment and a large chunk of change, no matter what you go with. Consider the annual dues, in terms of affordability for the next 40-50 years. If you buy a contract larger than you need, while you are able to rent out the extra points, there is no guarantee you will. Then you have the extra work (even if minor) of managing the rental points and risking Disney flagging your account for annual rentals.

You can always buy more points at your home resort, or elsewhere, but renting points (while appealing for the minimal income), is not the intended purpose of DVC or a path I would suggest doing annually.

I always like to play "what if scenarios"...what if Disney forbids point rentals in the future? "What if" Downtown Disney (soon to be Disney Springs) is so busy, or so overgrown with the development that you can't tolerate staying there? "What if" Disney puts another new theme park next to BLT that you just love to the ends of the earth and you want to stay there every single time?" I know some of my scenarios are slightly insane, but you see my point? These and other unknown variables are factors to consider for the future. Having a resort that you absolutely love for whatever reason (location, decor, etc)., will make future changes brought upon by Disney that much easier.

Good luck with your decision. Take your time, DVC and the resale market will be here for a long while. Make a decision that you are 100% comfortable and happy with, and don't settle just to get your foot in the door. Even though I'm very early in the buying process (my contract is in ROFR review), every night since I signed the purchase agreement, I've been sleeping like a baby having dreams of Disney knowing that I made the right decision. Had I gone with the cheaper option I was considering, I don't know if I would be saying that now.

 

[DougEMG]

I am assuming you are looking at a studio. I've been tracking booking patterns for all the resorts at Studios. Basically, you can get into a BLT Lake View at 7-months for about 2/3 of the year. The pattern (broken down into 1/2 month intervals) is as follows:

View attachment 99023

Green shows that that whole section of time is available. Mostly means there is some time not available, but more than 50% is available. Red means little to no availability. Understand that this is a survey from May 2014 to May 2015. It does not guarantee that future patterns will remain the same.

The pattern as you can see is that you cannot get into BLT at 7-months for the Disney Marathon(Jan), the Princess Marathon(Feb), Easter, and 4th of July, but otherwise can from January to September. October through December is another matter, and it would be pretty difficult to get a week at BLT at that time of year without owning there. (Note that late February isn't 100% filled in, which is why I haven't posted these surveys yet.)

So, my advice would be that if you can anticipate that you won't be traveling during October-December very often, you can buy at SSR and be pretty safe that you will be able to stay at BLT. If you buy at SSR there is a good chance if you travel October-December you will have to choose between AKL, OKW, or SSR as those are the only ones that will have any availability at 7 months, and sometimes not all 3.

Awesome chart, love info like that

 

[CKCruising]

A couple of comments ...

Our plan at his time is to stay at BLT LV studio in May the next number of years. 141 pts for the week.

Points requirements change. If you need 141 for this week, I would probably have a few extra in case the allocations change. 150 is probably a nice number to be safe. It is also good that you are looking at the LV. A lot of people use the SV for their calculations but you could only get those if you owned BLT. You also don't say what your travelling party looks like. Personally (100% my opinion, some agree, some don't), we (myself, DW, and DS10) stay in a 1BR. We stayed in a BLT Studio (one of the smallest) once and bought more points to stay in a 1BR as soon as we got home from that trip. The flexibility of DVC and rooms is one of it's big benefits. You are committing for an extended period of time. For most, the way we vacation changes over time, especially if kids are involved.

Offer 1 - BLT home resort 165 points descent price.. Sell 40 points to David's every other year to offset some of the dues. This woul make our dues average around $45 per month when it's all averaged out.

Option 2 - SSR home resort 210 points. $2000 less on the purchase price than BLT. Is would give me 69 points to sell to Davidss to offset dues. This would make our dues about $25 per month when averaged out
.

As people have said, rentals don't really work this way. If you have extra points, you might add a day, or change your view. More than likely you will not consistently rent the points every year. I wouldn't work this into your calculations.

Again our intent is to stay at BLT. We really like it. All the info I've gotten says that BLT LV studios are open at 7 months I'm concerned this may change. Of course we may decide we want to stay at other places as well down the road. This has become confusing LOL!

I'm really not interested in staying at SSR and the only reason I'm thinking buying there it is due to pricing.
We would be looking at staying at BLT, WL, or Polynesian depending on how that plays out and make reservations at 7 months.

Any wisdom here to help me make a decision would be greatly appreciated.
.

There is a good chance that you will get the BLT LV Studio at 7 months, but I think the biggest part of "Buy where you want to stay" is "Don't buy where you don't want to stay". If you said, that I would be ok staying at SSR if I can't get my BLT reservation then it might work. If you don't want to stay at SSR, then don't buy there.

 

[skier_pete]

There's nothing wrong with buying a few extra points as a precaution to need, but I agree that renting out a few points every year probably isn't worth the effort. If you have more points than you need annually, you are better off through banking and borrowing renting out a larger # of points every 2-3 years. The banking/borrowing game is something that takes getting used to but you will.

 

[DVC Doctor]

I am assuming you are looking at a studio. I've been tracking booking patterns for all the resorts at Studios. Basically, you can get into a BLT Lake View at 7-months for about 2/3 of the year. The pattern (broken down into 1/2 month intervals) is as follows:

View attachment 99023

This is an amazing chart and reminds me of the DVC APP that was banned a year or so ago. I loved that app and miss it dearly. The software did exactly teh same thing as you did, but automatically and updated 4x per day. Disney was not happy with the app as it used so much bandwidth and gave out too much booking info to the general public.

The Resort Availability Tool is a direct response to the DVC APP, but still not as good.

 

[skier_pete]

This is an amazing chart and reminds me of the DVC APP that was banned a year or so ago. I loved that app and miss it dearly. The software did exactly teh same thing as you did, but automatically and updated 4x per day. Disney was not happy with the app as it used so much bandwidth and gave out too much booking info to the general public.

The Resort Availability Tool is a direct response to the DVC APP, but still not as good.

Never saw the APP. Mine is obviously not as thorough as you make that sound.

I need about three more weeks to finish all the charts. (The new availability tool came online about end of June, so I have some 7-11 month data that still needs to be filled in.) At that point, I intend to post a thread with all the charts in it. Hopefully the moderators won't have a problem with it.

 

[suebeelin]

Never saw the APP. Mine is obviously not as thorough as you make that sound.

I need about three more weeks to finish all the charts. (The new availability tool came online about end of June, so I have some 7-11 month data that still needs to be filled in.) At that point, I intend to post a thread with all the charts in it. Hopefully the moderators won't have a problem with it.

I'm following you now... Lol. Call me your dvc stalker...

 

[skier_pete]

I'm following you now... Lol. Call me your dvc stalker...

Cool my own stalker.

I'll be posting it under DVC Member Services when I do. Hopefully I can convince the mods to sticky it.

 

[DVC Doctor]

Please create a NEW thread with this data

 

[skier_pete]

Please create a NEW thread with this data

yes, it would be a new thread.

 

[skateshome]

FWIW.....we just had our contrat sent off to ROFR for a BLT 165pts. Thank you for all the help here and suggestions.
In the end it simply wasn't worth the hassle to book SSR when we knew we mostly wanted to stay at BLT. When you put it all down
on paper there just wasn't enough price difference to matter. Thanks everybody!!!!

 

[skateshome]

Oh....and FANTASTIC chart skier_pete!!!! Thanks!