Where would you add on? VGF / BWV / RIV

[havoc315]

but hubby has now talked me out of adding RIV because of the limitation on resale (hence potentially limited exit / re-sell strategy) and how the resale price may be uncertain.


Cons for BWV:

You're worried about re-sale... but would consider BWV?

I can't predict future re-sale value. But I can guarantee you that looking down the road 10-20 years, RIV will have FAR better re-sale value than BWV.

Literally, in 19+ years, the re-sale value of BWV becomes $0. Worthless. So even if RIV re-sale is only $1, it's infinitely better than BWV..

If you are thinking you might want to re-sell in 10-20 years, then stay AWAY from the 2042 resorts. Buying a 2042 resort with direct pricing is a rip off. Buying a 2042 re-sale is basically a break even proposition (within 10-15% of break even), without any real possibility of re-selling yourself in the future.

So take out the 2042 resorts, and then buy where you want to stay.

I'm personally not the least bit worried about the long-term re-sale prices at RIV. Like every resort, I expect them to remain in the 60-70% of direct pricing range. There will always be a market of people willing to accept the restrictions in order to save 30-40%.
Sure... might GFV retain 66% of value, while RIV only retains 61% of value? That's a possibility... and over 20-30 years, that makes a difference of a few hundred dollars.

I wouldn't pass on the resort that I want because it *might* be worth a few hundred dollars less than another resort in the future.

 

[havoc315]

This board is always full of good advice and useful info! Very true... RIV will be worth more than $50pp in 20 years time for sure. So the question comes done to whether we're happy with adding more VGF knowing that we might not be able to get an Epcot room at 7 months, or rather how much premiums are we willing to pay for an Epcot resort.

Adding VGF at 207pp now, we'll likely be able to sell it off at $190pp and potentially more - does this sound reasonable?

VGF resale was $190 back when direct was $250+.... Now, VGF re-sale has been going for less-- Around 170.

You can see the effect of the change in direct pricing in this chart:

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-may-2022/

Adding RIV at 193pp now, there's big uncertainty on resale price. Earlier this year, they were going for $140 ish per point I believe. But as you said, we only need roughly $50pp to break even when compared to BWV. But compared to VGF, not as good of a value.

RIV has been pretty consistent at $145-$150 per point. (some variation based on how loaded the contract is, the size of the contract). That's about 75% of the direct pricing.
In other words, there is a healthy market of buyers willing to accept the restrictions in order to get a 25% discount.

As the price of RIV direct rises in the future, the price of re-sale will also increase. (will eventually decline when there are only 10-20 years left on the contract).

So imagine, 15 years from now...
Direct points are $300 --- GFV continues to retain 80% of value. RIV retains "only" 75% of value. In that case, on the re-sale, you will "lose" $15 per point on RIV. Or, $1 per point per year, for the 15 years.

In the end, we get back to "buy where you want to stay" -- If you want to stay in the Epcot area, paying an extra $1 per point per year, isn't a huge price in order to get what you want.

 

[standardgirl]

VGF resale was $190 back when direct was $250+.... Now, VGF re-sale has been going for less-- Around 170.

You can see the effect of the change in direct pricing in this chart:

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-may-2022

My thinking was that VGF resale is taking a temporary drop in price because that's what's needed to compete with buying direct now with VGF phase 2. Once VGF2 sells out, it's be interesting to see what happens to the resale price then. On one hand, VGF will likely always be popular, but OTOH, there'll be a lot more VGF contracts / owners and therefore possibly also more supply in the resale market.

 

[havoc315]

My thinking was that VGF resale is taking a temporary drop in price because that's what's needed to compete with buying direct now with VGF phase 2. Once VGF2 sells out, it's be interesting to see what happens to the resale price then. On one hand, VGF will likely always be popular, but OTOH, there'll be a lot more VGF contracts / owners and therefore possibly also more supply in the resale market.

Once it sells out, the direct price takes a jump.... They begin to ROFR... and the re-sale price makes a corresponding jump.
At least if it's consistent with the history of sales of every other resort.

Re-sale price will almost always fluctuate in line with direct price, until you get to the end of the contract. (at the end of the contract, the price will just sink towards zero). But as long as there are 20+ years left on the contract, you can expect re-sale pricing to be approximately 60-75% of direct pricing. So when direct pricing of VGF goes back to $250 per point, re-sale pricing may go back up to $190 per point.

 

[Sandisw]

My thinking was that VGF resale is taking a temporary drop in price because that's what's needed to compete with buying direct now with VGF phase 2. Once VGF2 sells out, it's be interesting to see what happens to the resale price then. On one hand, VGF will likely always be popular, but OTOH, there'll be a lot more VGF contracts / owners and therefore possibly also more supply in the resale market.

What will be interesting, once they sell out again, is whether the price remains as high. It is no longer going to be the small resort it once was and will be heavy in resort studios. If those are easy to secure at 7 months, home resort advantage may not be as important as it once was before those were added to the resort.

 

[TinkB278]

What will be interesting, once they sell out again, is whether the price remains as high. It is no longer going to be the small resort it once was and will be heavy in resort studios. If those are easy to secure at 7 months, home resort advantage may not be as important as it once was before those were added to the resort.

This is what keep thinking about and makes me feel like past resale value is not necessarily indicative of where VGF will settle once vgf2 is sold out, especially if people are unhappy with the new studios once they are staying in them. I’m personally curious to hear if the rumors of noisy rooms is true or not once people start checking in.

 

[gharter]

I'm biased as we own at BWV. But we can walk to 2 parks. Where else can you do that?
I love the restaurants at Riviera, but the theme does nothing for me.
similarly, love the restaurants at GF, but the theme just doesn't fit us. For those who love the theme, great, but it isn't us. But the restaurants are amazing.

 

[fumanchu2488]

RIV has been pretty consistent at $145-$150 per point. (some variation based on how loaded the contract is, the size of the contract). That's about 75% of the direct pricing.
In other words, there is a healthy market of buyers willing to accept the restrictions in order to get a 25% discount.

As the price of RIV direct rises in the future, the price of re-sale will also increase. (will eventually decline when there are only 10-20 years left on the contract).

So imagine, 15 years from now...
Direct points are $300 --- GFV continues to retain 80% of value. RIV retains "only" 75% of value. In that case, on the re-sale, you will "lose" $15 per point on RIV. Or, $1 per point per year, for the 15 years.

In the end, we get back to "buy where you want to stay" -- If you want to stay in the Epcot area, paying an extra $1 per point per year, isn't a huge price in order to get what you want.

To further this line of thinking, people lose sight of where the biggest cost is in DVC, and that is the maintenance over the life of the contract. Sure, the initial purchase price is the big 'sting' because it is a big lump of money, but it is really peanuts when compared to the MF we pay over the years.

For example using some easy math, if you buy 100 points at RIV direct and pay $21,000 you will get 4,800 points (100 points x 48 years). So you are paying $4.38 per point. If you bought that contract resale at $15,000 you will have paid $3.13 per point. Every year we are paying over $8 per point for MF.

My point is the same as yours, buy where you want to stay.

 

[havoc315]

To further this line of thinking, people lose sight of where the biggest cost is in DVC, and that is the maintenance over the life of the contract. Sure, the initial purchase price is the big 'sting' because it is a big lump of money, but it is really peanuts when compared to the MF we pay over the years.

For example using some easy math, if you buy 100 points at RIV direct and pay $21,000 you will get 4,800 points (100 points x 48 years). So you are paying $4.38 per point. If you bought that contract resale at $15,000 you will have paid $3.13 per point. Every year we are paying over $8 per point for MF.

My point is the same as yours, buy where you want to stay.

Yes... I will say that dues are not totally predictable long term either. Just because Resort X is currently $.85 higher dues than Resort Y right now, does not mean they won't equalize in 10 years.

So I would discourage anyone from trying to map out the finances with any exactitude. Don't make a decision based on some perception that Resort X may be slightly better value than Resort Y over the long term. Buy where you want to stay.

BUT... I think it is ok to look at the finances broadly for major differences. For example, on the extreme end, buying BCV at direct prices would be hard to rationalize. It's not just slightly more expensive than buying a 2057-2070 resort, it's ridiculously more expensive since you are unlikely to ever get much back in resale and since you won't get more than 19 years of use.

Look at it like buying a house, a long term purchase, like DVC. If one house is $350,000 and another house is $700,000... the difference in price will be a major factor in your decision.
But if one house is $510,000 and another house is $520,000.... and the first house has slightly higher taxes, while the second house has slightly higher utility bills... Are you going to sit there with a calculator trying to figure out which house is going to be the cheapest by a few dollars in the long term, or are you just going to buy the house that you like more?

 

[Sandisw]

Yes... I will say that dues are not totally predictable long term either. Just because Resort X is currently $.85 higher dues than Resort Y right now, does not mean they won't equalize in 10 years.

So I would discourage anyone from trying to map out the finances with any exactitude. Don't make a decision based on some perception that Resort X may be slightly better value than Resort Y over the long term. Buy where you want to stay.

BUT... I think it is ok to look at the finances broadly for major differences. For example, on the extreme end, buying BCV at direct prices would be hard to rationalize. It's not just slightly more expensive than buying a 2057-2070 resort, it's ridiculously more expensive since you are unlikely to ever get much back in resale and since you won't get more than 19 years of use.

Look at it like buying a house, a long term purchase, like DVC. If one house is $350,000 and another house is $700,000... the difference in price will be a major factor in your decision.
But if one house is $510,000 and another house is $520,000.... and the first house has slightly higher taxes, while the second house has slightly higher utility bills... Are you going to sit there with a calculator trying to figure out which house is going to be the cheapest by a few dollars in the long term, or are you just going to buy the house that you like more?

To add, OKW has gone past RIV in the short time it’s been around.

So, it’s never a sure thing. In the end, an extra $1 a point isn’t a lot every year in the scheme of things to not chose your first choice.

 

[havoc315]

To add, OKW has gone past RIV in the short time it’s been around.

So, it’s never a sure thing. In the end, an extra $1 a point isn’t a lot every year in the scheme of things to not chose your first choice.

Exactly.. so wouldn't worry about 1 resort having a higher annual dues by $0.50, I wouldn't try to predict that one resort might have slightly better re-sale value, I wouldn't obsess over a contract expiration of 2060 vs 2064..

BUT... there is a significant difference between a 2042 contract (19 years left), and a 2057-2070 contract (34-47 years left).

 

[mustinjourney]

This board is always full of good advice and useful info! Very true... RIV will be worth more than $50pp in 20 years time for sure. So the question comes done to whether we're happy with adding more VGF knowing that we might not be able to get an Epcot room at 7 months, or rather how much premiums are we willing to pay for an Epcot resort.

Adding VGF at 207pp now, we'll likely be able to sell it off at $190pp and potentially more - does this sound reasonable?

Adding RIV at 193pp now, there's big uncertainty on resale price. Earlier this year, they were going for $140 ish per point I believe. But as you said, we only need roughly $50pp to break even when compared to BWV. But compared to VGF, not as good of a value.

Adding BWV (via resale) at 150pp, long waiting time to find the exact contract, and earlier expiration in 2042 when it'll be worth exactly zero dollar.

if you're looking at 100 points -- I don't think you'd have much trouble selling those at RIV via resale. People are starting to come around on that resort, and I could easily see people buying RIV resale b/c that's where they want to stay.

 

[kboo]

I know your DH dissuaded you from considering RIV direct but - if you buy 100 points RIV direct as compared to VGF direct:
you will save $600 on initial purchase
if you need to resell at some point in the future - even if RIV resale price is $30 per point less than VGF (unlikely, I think there will be different markets for these points, in 10-ish years people will be looking at the expiring resorts in the O14) - you may get $3000 less on the sale.
Not even including dues, or the time factor between saving $600 now v maybe getting some amount less in the future and what that might be worth, etc. Even 1-2 point rentals of RIV points would make up that difference.

FWIW I happen to own both - love both resorts for different reasons, but I think RIV tends to be the grownups' favorite and VGF is still the kids' favorite. But the kids' favorite park right now is still MK, with HS an up and coming 2nd place as my oldest is a tween.

 

[Sandisw]

I know your DH dissuaded you from considering RIV direct but - if you buy 100 points RIV direct as compared to VGF direct:
you will save $600 on initial purchase
if you need to resell at some point in the future - even if RIV resale price is $30 per point less than VGF (unlikely, I think there will be different markets for these points, in 10-ish years people will be looking at the expiring resorts in the O14) - you may get $3000 less on the sale.
Not even including dues, or the time factor between saving $600 now v maybe getting some amount less in the future and what that might be worth, etc. Even 1-2 point rentals of RIV points would make up that difference.

FWIW I happen to own both - love both resorts for different reasons, but I think RIV tends to be the grownups' favorite and VGF is still the kids' favorite. But the kids' favorite park right now is still MK, with HS an up and coming 2nd place as my oldest is a tween.

I agree! No one knows what the future holds with resale value but the savings now is real!

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

If your UY allows you to get 100 2021 pts at RVA, the rental value of that should tip the scales in its favor. Plus, you get your EPCOT area resort.

There is uncertainty with any options: RVA resale value due to restrictions, the impact on VGF with the addition of 200 resort studios, the value of BWV as the expiration approaches. Tell your DH that they all have some uncertainty and see if he reconsiders.

RVA will certainly be worth the difference you'd be saving now if you went with BWV resale, plus gives you the flexibility of combining with direct points you already own at VGF if you wanted a bigger room at either, and the flexibility of the financing (which you could actually extend to 9 months because DVC can split payments into 3 months, so you've have 6 months financing on each payment). The resale price tanking hasn't come to pass, and I personally think it's veyr unlikely. I think RVA is the clear winner in your scenario.

 

[beamreach]

This board is always full of good advice and useful info! Very true... RIV will be worth more than $50pp in 20 years time for sure. So the question comes done to whether we're happy with adding more VGF knowing that we might not be able to get an Epcot room at 7 months, or rather how much premiums are we willing to pay for an Epcot resort.

Adding VGF at 207pp now, we'll likely be able to sell it off at $190pp and potentially more - does this sound reasonable?

Adding RIV at 193pp now, there's big uncertainty on resale price. Earlier this year, they were going for $140 ish per point I believe. But as you said, we only need roughly $50pp to break even when compared to BWV. But compared to VGF, not as good of a value.

Adding BWV (via resale) at 150pp, long waiting time to find the exact contract, and earlier expiration in 2042 when it'll be worth exactly zero dollar.

Predicting future DVC values in any fashion is imprudent. Basing current buying decisions on speculation on RIV restriction changes or future DVC resort restrictions is likewise imprudent. RIV is basically a nicer DVC for Caribbean Beach.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Not BWV. You are a young family. Contract too short. VGF will never go out of style and has low MF. RIV is a good deal up front.

 

[standardgirl]

Just want to thank you all for your comments and insights. We added 100 points just yesterday at VGF

Thought I'd also share some additional info which led us to the final decision with 100 additional VGF points:

With relatively conservative assumptions (MF increases at 3% per year, rental price increases at just 1% per year starting at the very low $18pp rate David's currently pays, and an opportunity cost / interest rate of 4%), the contract would still break even in 30 years. This is assuming we don't ever use the points ourselves and would only rely on rental income! plus this also assumes $0 resale value which we know won't be the case. So all in all, feel quite comfortable and went with 100 points to get the $3pp incentive even though we really only need around 70pts.

We also decided for VGF as opposed to RIV because we can still get a package through the UK Disney site (using hubby's UK credit card and address). This means that we can easily get 5 nights at Pop Century (which is also on the Skyliner) with a 14-day park pass added and do 9 nights at VGF afterwards. Of course, Pop Century is no comparison to RIV, but the deal with the 14-day park pass and other dinning incentives and memory maker included means that the 5-night stay at Pop is peanuts (comes to around $50 marginal cost for the room per night!). BCV and BWV would still beat a Skyliner resort for sure, but as we have a less common Sep UY, the resale market has been extremely limited with the right size and match UY contracts, so actually not really a realistic option and we don't want to wait forever and miss the chance to add at VGF.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Just want to thank you all for your comments and insights. We added 100 points just yesterday at VGF

Thought I'd also share some additional info which led us to the final decision with 100 additional VGF points:

With relatively conservative assumptions (MF increases at 3% per year, rental price increases at just 1% per year starting at the very low $18pp rate David's currently pays, and an opportunity cost / interest rate of 4%), the contract would still break even in 30 years. This is assuming we don't ever use the points ourselves and would only rely on rental income! plus this also assumes $0 resale value which we know won't be the case. So all in all, feel quite comfortable and went with 100 points to get the $3pp incentive even though we really only need around 70pts.

We also decided for VGF as opposed to RIV because we can still get a package through the UK Disney site (using hubby's UK credit card and address). This means that we can easily get 5 nights at Pop Century (which is also on the Skyliner) with a 14-day park pass added and do 9 nights at VGF afterwards. Of course, Pop Century is no comparison to RIV, but the deal with the 14-day park pass and other dinning incentives and memory maker included means that the 5-night stay at Pop is peanuts (comes to around $50 marginal cost for the room per night!). BCV and BWV would still beat a Skyliner resort for sure, but as we have a less common Sep UY, the resale market has been extremely limited with the right size and match UY contracts, so actually not really a realistic option and we don't want to wait forever and miss the chance to add at VGF.

Added bonus: if you stay at POP at the start of your visit, think how grand the Grand will seem by comparison!