Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[RoseGold]

then he did tell me that I wouldn't be able to access the BLT Observation Deck / Lounge as a white card member. I said I thought that was available to white card members but he was sure it wasn't... now I'll have to research that... or maybe they're going to pull that benefit from white card members?

This is a lie on two levels. First, it's closed right now, so NO ONE can access it, like that currently non-existent DVC Gold AP. If it were open, you could access it as a white card member. It's explicitly on the website. He knew both of these things. They could shut it down to all members permanently, which I can picture them doing.

 

[Wakey]

I bet the guides are absolutely pissed at DVD for RIV resale restrictions, it will be hitting them all in the pocket.

 

[heynowirv]

Have they been taking BWV at all or only SSR and OKW?

 

[zavandor]

I bet the guides are absolutely pissed at DVD for RIV resale restrictions, it will be hitting them all in the pocket.

Do you think so?
I have always thought DVD introduced the restrictions because the guides asked for a better way to differenciate resale and have a heavyweight weapon to use when someone mentions resale during the sale pitch.
However it's possible they might backfire in the short term and guides may not be so much interested in the long term.

 

[Dean]

I bet the guides are absolutely pissed at DVD for RIV resale restrictions, it will be hitting them all in the pocket.

Probably all the way to the bank.

 

[bookwormde]

The number of contracts on https://www.dvcsales.com/ seems to be the highest I've seen in the time I've been actively looking for a contract. Are they in the sites you track?

yes they are 1 of the 2 smaller sites I track

 

[bookwormde]

8/19 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 400% of average

 

[bookwormde]

compared to last week

DVC resale 266 down 9

Fidelity 136 up 3

TSS 146 up 26

 

[Llama mama]

What’s your strategy for purchasing points?
If holiday weeks are not priority.
I am a flexible traveler and can book last minute or well in advance.
Don’t need a long contract.
Dont have a resort preference.
Paying cash.
Like a 9 /10 day vacation yearly.
Studio would work for most vacations.
Go for whatever resort with lowest Point price? I think a 200 point would work ok. Offer a $5-10 less a point for first offer?
Any advice?
I have read almost all this thread and I am still no closer on what’s the best strategy lol.

 

[Kickstart]

This is a lie on two levels. First, it's closed right now, so NO ONE can access it, like that currently non-existent DVC Gold AP. If it were open, you could access it as a white card member. It's explicitly on the website. He knew both of these things. They could shut it down to all members permanently, which I can picture them doing.

Can you point to where it's stated on the website? I couldn't find anything except for general statements about it being available for "members', but not specifying which type of member.

Thanks

 

[JETSDAD]

Can you point to where it's stated on the website? I couldn't find anything except for general statements about it being available for "members', but not specifying which type of member.

Thanks

It's right on the digital white cards as being available.

Also here: https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/dvc-direct-vs-resale/

 

[sethschroeder]

What’s your strategy for purchasing points?
If holiday weeks are not priority.
I am a flexible traveler and can book last minute or well in advance.
Don’t need a long contract.
Dont have a resort preference.
Paying cash.
Like a 9 /10 day vacation yearly.
Studio would work for most vacations.
Go for whatever resort with lowest Point price? I think a 200 point would work ok. Offer a $5-10 less a point for first offer?
Any advice?
I have read almost all this thread and I am still no closer on what’s the best strategy lol.

Do you want a specific resort that you will stay at or are you just looking for sleep around points?

Remeber each resort has different point charts so you need to look at that as well to see if 200 points is good.

 

[bookwormde]

What’s your strategy for purchasing points?
If holiday weeks are not priority.
I am a flexible traveler and can book last minute or well in advance.
Don’t need a long contract.
Dont have a resort preference.
Paying cash.
Like a 9 /10 day vacation yearly.
Studio would work for most vacations.
Go for whatever resort with lowest Point price? I think a 200 point would work ok. Offer a $5-10 less a point for first offer?
Any advice?
I have read almost all this thread and I am still no closer on what’s the best strategy lol.

do not forget about maintenance fee differences.
I suggest 12 to 18 dollars below asking as a start for larger contracts.
Also where the info is available look at long listed contracts.
If you want the best deal be patient

 

[bookwormde]

8/20 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 340% of average

 

[Dean]

What’s your strategy for purchasing points?
If holiday weeks are not priority.
I am a flexible traveler and can book last minute or well in advance.
Don’t need a long contract.
Dont have a resort preference.
Paying cash.
Like a 9 /10 day vacation yearly.
Studio would work for most vacations.
Go for whatever resort with lowest Point price? I think a 200 point would work ok. Offer a $5-10 less a point for first offer?
Any advice?
I have read almost all this thread and I am still no closer on what’s the best strategy lol.

In addition to the information you provided, I will make a couple of assumptions. Those are that you have sufficient on property and timeshare experience to know that buying is truly your best direction going forward for a number of years as well as WDW being your main goal. Just taking what you've provided I think the cheapest option long term will best fit the situation you've described, that is SSR resale. This is because you're flexible in scheduling and flexible in resort choice from what it seems from your post. The cheapest studios that are routinely available will be SSR standard and OKW. 200 sounds like a good size for the contract assuming the non studio trips aren't too costly in number of points. 200 likely won't' be enough if you're looking at other resorts mostly or just trying most of the resorts over time. Generally I recommend calculating your needs and getting a cushion of 10-20% or more, usually 20% or more when looking at studios and/or shorter time stays.

I'm assuming it's just 2 people traveling, if it's a family I'd definitely do a good cushion if the above assumption are otherwise correct. If I haven't read your post correctly and you're looking at higher end resorts or you would get great short term benefits from the pass discounts, I would answer differently.

 

[bookwormde]

8/21 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 260% of average

 

[Llama mama]

Where does everyone believe BW and BC prices are headed with only 22 years left on their contracts.

 

[sethschroeder]

Where does everyone believe BW and BC prices are headed with only 22 years left on their contracts.

22 years is already factored in otherwise BWV would be up with POLY and BCV would be up with VGF.

Most value of a contract is first 10 years so won't see time truly impacting it for another 10 years.

 

[CastAStone]

Where does everyone believe BW and BC prices are headed with only 22 years left on their contracts.

I think that compared to however the other resorts increase or decrease, they will lag about 4%-5% per year behind on average, which reasonably accurately reflects the decline in value. At some point around 2028ish I think that will accelerate to closer to 6-9% per year.

The prices for resorts like BRV, OKW, and BWV already I’d argue pretty clearly have their 2042 expiration accurately priced in. BCV is the only outlier but then again it’s the second most expensive cash resort.

 

[Brianstl]

I think that compared to however the other resorts increase or decrease, they will lag about 4%-5% per year behind on average, which reasonably accurately reflects the decline in value. At some point around 2028ish I think that will accelerate to closer to 6-9% per year.

The prices for resorts like BRV, OKW, and BWV already I’d argue pretty clearly have their 2042 expiration accurately priced in. BCV is the only outlier but then again it’s the second most expensive cash resort.

I think the small size of BCV has played a big role in BCV’s price inflation.