Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Thegoofysmers]

They're probably trending lower for the next 18 months at least. Decisions to unload contracts will need to be made once annual maintenance fees are due both this year and next. And now with limitations on access to parks for the foreseeable future, the short term value of the contract will be negatively affected.

 

[Jhoyer5150]

We've already seen some degree of price degradation - even before the virus Boardwalk and Poly were showing some price deterioration. Grand Floridian has cratered to $145 area, Saratoga averages are now low 90s (and we saw one print at 81.25), Animal Kingdom failed to hold $100 (saw a $95 earlier this week there), etc. But the price moves have not been created equal: Grand Cali for instance is still extremely hard to source let alone procure at anything under $200. Beach Club still commands a premium. Copper and Bay Lake haven't moved as much as I would have predicted.

CastAStone has others have done great work on inventory and price history data and while the low inventory might have helped for awhile, I agree with some here that perhaps agents were advising listing only after WDW had announced a reopening. What is clear, now, however, is that there is a supply glut coming online, AND the reopening will not exactly be the WDW we all know and love. Moreover, the larger macroeconomic problems are unlikely to resolve themselves anytime soon - particularly as they relate to a category like travel. Nearly 20% of WDW guests are international - that's essentially stopped for the time being. You can't wipe out 1/5th of your customer base and not feel it. Yes, the unemployment has disproportionately negatively impacted lower economic classes than the upper-middle class demographics of DVC ownership - but again, if there's 40mm people out of work in this country, its hard to project an economic expansion anytime soon - so even if you "don't know anybody who's lost a job", it doesn't mean consumer spending is OK (it's not). DVC prices will follow suit - perhaps more slowly at first, perhaps gradually rather than cratering - but fall they will.

 

[bookwormde]

5/28 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100-120% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[becauseimnew]

I think the fire sale is over. January is historically a lower priced month, as folks want to sell to before paying another full year's worth of MFs.
Low prices extended into March this year due to the virus, but with the reopenings announced, I think they will level off and perhaps start increasing again.
ET

unfortunately I don't think this pandemic is over, as much as I wish it were. I work for local government and though we are returning to the office on Monday the city leaders are preparing for us to work from home again this fall. So many business are closing permanently, it so sad.

 

[TinkB278]

Well, I know it’s not really related, but any thoughts on whether the price of resale might drop due to Disney canceling the ability to buy a dining plan through next September (2021)? The dining plan is an essential for us as it makes the trip feel all inclusive so I’ve decided to put buying DVC on hold until next year at least, to see how close to normal the parks will ever get again.

 

[CastAStone]

Well, I know it’s not really related, but any thoughts on whether the price of resale might drop due to Disney canceling the ability to buy a dining plan through next September (2021)? The dining plan is an essential for us as it makes the trip feel all inclusive so I’ve decided to put buying DVC on hold until next year at least, to see how close to normal the parks will ever get again.

If DVC members have park access preference (which we don't know yet but seems likely to me), I think the opposite could happen. We shall see.

 

[E2ME2]

Well, I know it’s not really related, but any thoughts on whether the price of resale might drop due to Disney canceling the ability to buy a dining plan through next September (2021)? The dining plan is an essential for us as it makes the trip feel all inclusive so I’ve decided to put buying DVC on hold until next year at least, to see how close to normal the parks will ever get again.

If you found that "perfect deal"on resale right now, you would pass because of the temporary ADR change ??

 

[RoseGold]

Low prices extended into March this year due to the virus, but with the reopenings announced, I think they will level off and perhaps start increasing again.

You must be able to keep a mask on a five year old longer than I can.

 

[MinnieSueB]

You must be able to keep a mask on a five year old longer than I can.

That's the million $ question for Disney - How long are they going to require masks? MANY people are a NO GO on the mask requirement.

 

[TinkB278]

If you found that "perfect deal"on resale right now, you would pass because of the temporary ADR change ??

Yes, I definitely would. I thought any big changes would only last through maybe beginning of next year. Now that I see that things will not be the same (if they ever will) I’m not sure that I want to invest all my time and money into Disney like I was ready to at the beginning of this year. I absolutely love WDW so this is heartbreaking for me.

It’s not just taking away the dining plan, it’s also the loss of park hopping, fireworks etc. I just need to see that things will be how they used to be before I can make this kind of commitment.

 

[CastAStone]

That's the million $ question for Disney - How long are they going to require masks? MANY people are a NO GO on the mask requirement.

I think given just how many reservations they need to cancel (most of them?), they're OK with that.

 

[lovethesun12]

Well, I know it’s not really related, but any thoughts on whether the price of resale might drop due to Disney canceling the ability to buy a dining plan through next September (2021)? The dining plan is an essential for us as it makes the trip feel all inclusive so I’ve decided to put buying DVC on hold until next year at least, to see how close to normal the parks will ever get again.

Perhaps. I think it will drop lower but mostly due to the medical concerns, park restrictions, travel advisory/restrictions, and travel insurance changes. There are also a large group of owners that cannot actually use DVC since there are so many travel restrictions. A lot of international travelers now will have to travel without insurance, that alone has to drop the number of visitors so even when disney fully reopens, I think you will be looking at huge future discounts as well to fill rooms, which will also impact resale value. Also there's the whole unemployment issue. Potential difficulty with loans. Also we don't know if/when there will be a vaccine and even if it is passed on a miracle timeline, it still has to be manufactured and distributed worldwide. Oh and don't forget the mental health of having to force kids to wear masks (I mean that one tongue in cheek, but some people really are not super happy about that). Also, ROFR is not going to start anytime soon. ETA: Also the rental market uncertainty. I almost made an offer on a contract that was oh so fairly priced last night and perfect for me. My brain went - oh, what a deal! To - wait, I can't travel. Then - who cares I'll try to rent the points if I can't travel. Finally - I can't risk losing all those points with all the rental market uncertainty bringing the contract to not so great a deal for me.

To sum up, this is a huge sheetstorm of which sheet will not stop sheeting for quite some time.

 

[Toonses]

That's the million $ question for Disney - How long are they going to require masks? MANY people are a NO GO on the mask requirement.

Yeah - I actually have reservations for 7/10-14. I'll be in FL anyway during that time, and I'd figured I'd just add a few days and do a solo trip since I have an AP from a trip I did last year. I even had a Villain AH ticket for the 10th which I got a notification about this AM. Basically, given the fact that EPCOT and HS won't be open while I'm there, the mask thing and the rest - I'm probably going to cancel the trip. Going to wait a bit just in case anything changes (especially with Universal opening June which possibly might affect some of this), but right now things aren't looking good for me to go.

 

[CarolynFH]

Well, I know it’s not really related, but any thoughts on whether the price of resale might drop due to Disney canceling the ability to buy a dining plan through next September (2021)? The dining plan is an essential for us as it makes the trip feel all inclusive so I’ve decided to put buying DVC on hold until next year at least, to see how close to normal the parks will ever get again.

I know a lot of DVC members do like to buy the dining plan, but at least as many if not more seem to prefer cooking in their villa as well as using TIW, AP or DVC discounts. There are many posts on this board by DVC members stating that the dining plan does not make financial sense for their particular family. So I don’t think that abolishing the dining plan will have any significant effect on resale prices in the coming year.

 

[MinnieSueB]

Yeah - I actually have reservations for 7/10-14. I'll be in FL anyway during that time, and I'd figured I'd just add a few days and do a solo trip since I have an AP from a trip I did last year. I even had a Villain AH ticket for the 10th which I got a notification about this AM. Basically, given the fact that EPCOT and HS won't be open while I'm there, the mask thing and the rest - I'm probably going to cancel the trip. Going to wait a bit just in case anything changes (especially with Universal opening June which possibly might affect some of this), but right now things aren't looking good for me to go.

We will be there July 14-18 with a split stay at SSR & AKL. Hope we are able to get into the parks.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Well, I know it’s not really related, but any thoughts on whether the price of resale might drop due to Disney canceling the ability to buy a dining plan through next September (2021)? The dining plan is an essential for us as it makes the trip feel all inclusive so I’ve decided to put buying DVC on hold until next year at least, to see how close to normal the parks will ever get again.

I'd be surprised if that affected the DVC resale market. In the end DVC is about a room and nothing more and one shouldn't be counting on anything else or assuming that everything will continue as it is. If other Disney policy changes make a difference then DVC might end up being a sad disappointment in the future. Now with that said I don't really expect any big changes and what is going on in the short term will normalize moving forward.

Regarding the dining plan - we've gotten it exactly twice. Once when it first came out and again for a single night when we had a split stay. The numbers have never worked out and all inclusive feel isn't important but can be achieved for me just by having funds on a GC. You have to provide them something when you eat so it's just a GC instead of a MB or room card. We hate having dining dictated by a pre-purchased plan and every time I've calculated it would have cost us more.

 

[becauseimnew]

I'd be surprised if that affected the DVC resale market. In the end DVC is about a room and nothing more and one shouldn't be counting on anything else or assuming that everything will continue as it is. If other Disney policy changes make a difference then DVC might end up being a sad disappointment in the future. Now with that said I don't really expect any big changes and what is going on in the short term will normalize moving forward.

Regarding the dining plan - we've gotten it exactly twice. Once when it first came out and again for a single night when we had a split stay. The numbers have never worked out and all inclusive feel isn't important but can be achieved for me just by having funds on a GC. You have to provide them something when you eat so it's just a GC instead of a MB or room card. We hate having dining dictated by a pre-purchased plan and every time I've calculated it would have cost us more.

Same here... specially now that both DDs will be Disney Adults. I am glad we had the plan our first trip, or I don't think DH would have agreed to ever return, but since the food bills were only 4 credits and not $180 he didn't care about the prices.

 

[jamier2]

I'd be surprised if that affected the DVC resale market. In the end DVC is about a room and nothing more...

I agree in theory all you buy is the room but honestly very few people buy DVC for the room. They buy for Disney World mostly and the perceived savings. If those rooms were in some random city they’d be worth about what other timeshares are. Very little.

I can’t speak for others but I suspect that I wouldn’t be alone in dumping DVC if things don’t ever go back to normal. The resorts are nice and all but I’d definitely go elsewhere for vacation if the parks weren’t there.

 

[TinkB278]

I'd be surprised if that affected the DVC resale market. In the end DVC is about a room and nothing more and one shouldn't be counting on anything else or assuming that everything will continue as it is. If other Disney policy changes make a difference then DVC might end up being a sad disappointment in the future. Now with that said I don't really expect any big changes and what is going on in the short term will normalize moving forward.

Regarding the dining plan - we've gotten it exactly twice. Once when it first came out and again for a single night when we had a split stay. The numbers have never worked out and all inclusive feel isn't important but can be achieved for me just by having funds on a GC. You have to provide them something when you eat so it's just a GC instead of a MB or room card. We hate having dining dictated by a pre-purchased plan and every time I've calculated it would have cost us more.

DVC might just be a room and no one should expect any more beyond a room but nearly every single person does expect more than just a room when they buy DVC. They expect the Disney experience they have been used to.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I agree in theory all you buy is the room but honestly very few people buy DVC for the room. They buy for Disney World mostly and the perceived savings. If those rooms were in some random city they’d be worth about what other timeshares are. Very little.

I can’t speak for others but I suspect that I wouldn’t be alone in dumping DVC if things don’t ever go back to normal. The resorts are nice and all but I’d definitely go elsewhere for vacation if the parks weren’t there.

That doesn't necessarily mean an issue with DVC but more that Disney isn't an vacation that you consider worthwhile anymore. I've been going for eons now and have seen it go from a single park in DL (albeit I was very young) to adding a second stand alone park at WDW to what it's grown into today. Things change and will continue to change and yes, everyone has to decide if it's where they want to spend money. I don't see that as a DVC specific issue though per se. And if attendance falls further than they want or need they'll do something to encourage it because it's their business to have vacationeers.

DVC might just be a room and no one should expect any more beyond a room but nearly every single person does expect more than just a room when they buy DVC. They expect the Disney experience they have been used to.

That would be ignoring the fact that DVC is a timeshare that only guarantees a room on a first come first served basis. Now of course it's a timeshare that has locations at 2 hugely popular places but it is "just a timeshare". CLUB is marketing. And I guess that we now see even the room guarantee isn't absolute but this is an unusual time. I'd not use whatever happens in the next year or two as a basis for what will occur in the future.