Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[pinkxray]

I am looking for a 100pt contract at either AKV or BLT. I know they will be more than larger contracts. I have no plans to travel using the points until spring 2022 so I have been looking at contracts that don’t have points until 2021. However, I see a few options that have
2020 points available. How much extra should I be willing to pay for 100 points? I would mostly likely have to rent them or transfer them out.

 

[MICKIMINI]

I'm also looking for that unicorn AKV contract - October, right? I think there is an advantage to getting 2020 points and banking them. You'll be able to use them until September 30, 2022. First of all there are hardly any AKV, let alone Oct UY how weird! I'm hoping if I hold out I can get them for $90 PP. I'm certainly not paying $115. I have plenty of points for our stay next year and this is an extra contract. I'm hoping to find around 120 points which will be dedicated to our AKV stays. Our son and DIL love the resort and I can see us getting a 2 BR for 4 nights and then moving over to OKW for another week or so.

I haven't figured out the lack of AKV listings as there are normally plenty to go around. Are the majority of original owners older and better able to withstand the financial trauma? The fact that there are basically none makes those with a twitchy finger likely to grab them, of course at a higher price. At some point I guess we will see more contracts hit the market. Until then I'm stalking...along with you!

 

[bookwormde]

5/22 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-200% of average*

* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted

 

[CastAStone]

5/22 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-200% of average*

* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted

Lotta contracts for a Saturday!

 

[bookwormde]

Lotta contracts for a Saturday!

It is actually Friday's posting, 2/3 were from sites that are not induced on the aggregating site which is unusually high

 

[gharter]

Given the current economy and the number of people out of work, I'm not surprised to see a higher than normal number of contracts available.
While not a quick way to get money, for many owners, it may be an easier way to get a large amount of money to pay bills.
I'm more surprised that prices overall don't seem to have come down a lot yet.

 

[bookwormde]

5/23 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 50-80% of average*

* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted

 

[OSUZorba]

Given the current economy and the number of people out of work, I'm not surprised to see a higher than normal number of contracts available.
While not a quick way to get money, for many owners, it may be an easier way to get a large amount of money to pay bills.
I'm more surprised that prices overall don't seem to have come down a lot yet.

Prices on real-estate always seem to lag a bit. I think that is because at first you still have a surplus of buyers that have been planning to buy in for awhile. As that existing pool of buyers is satisfied, prices have to drop further to draw in new buyers.

This worked out in my favor in 2009, I sold my house for a 10% loss. A year later the value had tanked another 20%.

 

[bookwormde]

5/24 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20-50% of average*

For the week of 5/18 to 5/24 newly posted resale contracts at about 135-150% of average*

* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted

 

[bookwormde]

5/25 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 30-60% of average*

* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

I haven't figured out the lack of AKV listings as there are normally plenty to go around. Are the majority of original owners older and better able to withstand the financial trauma? The fact that there are basically none makes those with a twitchy finger likely to grab them, of course at a higher price. At some point I guess we will see more contracts hit the market. Until then I'm stalking...along with you!

It is strange. AKL has 7.4 million points available which is not a small amount but there are very few contracts coming to market. AKL is the only "bus" resort we would consider so maybe there are a bunch of people thinking the same way?

For reference:

Resort	Total Points
Animal Kingdom Villas - Jambo	1,803,844
Animal Kingdom Villas- Kidani	5,595,400
Aulani	11,519,025
Beach Club Villas	3,027,124
Bay Lake Tower	5,732,762
Boardwalk Villas	4,888,837
Boulder Ridge Villas at Wilderness Lodge	1,961,969
Copper Creek Cabin & Villas	3,321,966
Hilton Head Island	1,368,962
Old Key West	7,674,852
Polynesian Villas and Bungalows	4,032,720
Saratoga Springs Resort	13,124,069
Saratoga Springs Resort - Treehouse Villas	905,250
Vero Beach	1,616,438
Villas at Grand Californian	1,136,865
Villas at Grand Floridian	2,520,379

 

[ChipNdale8887]

It is strange. AKL has 7.4 million points available which is not a small amount but there are very few contracts coming to market. AKL is the only "bus" resort we would consider so maybe there are a bunch of people thinking the same way?

For reference:

Resort	Total Points
Animal Kingdom Villas - Jambo	1,803,844
Animal Kingdom Villas- Kidani	5,595,400
Aulani	11,519,025
Beach Club Villas	3,027,124
Bay Lake Tower	5,732,762
Boardwalk Villas	4,888,837
Boulder Ridge Villas at Wilderness Lodge	1,961,969
Copper Creek Cabin & Villas	3,321,966
Hilton Head Island	1,368,962
Old Key West	7,674,852
Polynesian Villas and Bungalows	4,032,720
Saratoga Springs Resort	13,124,069
Saratoga Springs Resort - Treehouse Villas	905,250
Vero Beach	1,616,438
Villas at Grand Californian	1,136,865
Villas at Grand Floridian	2,520,379

I'd guess maybe it's because AKV is undervalued. Its a beautiful resort selling in the $85-115 range. Outside of location and transportation its right up there with the best resort wise. Plus point costs per night are low so more value. It does sell fast when it does pop up. Especially in certain months like June.

Honestly if I had the choice between SSR, OKW, or AKV, its AKV all the way any day. Plus it has the best expiration date of the cheaper dvc resorts.

 

[RoseGold]

I'd guess maybe it's because AKV is undervalued. Its a beautiful resort selling in the $85-115 range. Outside of location and transportation its right up there with the best resort wise.

The newer ones are still better values pound for pound (poly/VGF) but boy is that a lot of money upfront. AKL is the perfect middle ground of getting most of the way there with a lot less cash outlay, and a beautiful, desirable resort with eyepopping cash rates. It's so easy to book at 7 mo I never considered it, but I definitely see the sweet spot for current resale.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

The newer ones are still better values pound for pound (poly/VGF) but boy is that a lot of money upfront. AKL is the perfect middle ground of getting most of the way there with a lot less cash outlay, and a beautiful, desirable resort with eyepopping cash rates. It's so easy to book at 7 mo I never considered it, but I definitely see the sweet spot for current resale.

It depends. Point costs per night at Poly and VGF are much higher than AKV in our travel months of June-July so we'd have to buy more points spending more money. Also VGF is even less of a value since its expiration date is 2062. So your paying $50 more a point at VGF vs AKV, thats where the value is. Poly is a much better buy vs VGF if your okay with Studios.

 

[MICKIMINI]

It is strange. AKL has 7.4 million points available which is not a small amount but there are very few contracts coming to market. AKL is the only "bus" resort we would consider so maybe there are a bunch of people thinking the same way?

For reference:

Resort	Total Points
Animal Kingdom Villas - Jambo	1,803,844
Animal Kingdom Villas- Kidani	5,595,400
Aulani	11,519,025
Beach Club Villas	3,027,124
Bay Lake Tower	5,732,762
Boardwalk Villas	4,888,837
Boulder Ridge Villas at Wilderness Lodge	1,961,969
Copper Creek Cabin & Villas	3,321,966
Hilton Head Island	1,368,962
Old Key West	7,674,852
Polynesian Villas and Bungalows	4,032,720
Saratoga Springs Resort	13,124,069
Saratoga Springs Resort - Treehouse Villas	905,250
Vero Beach	1,616,438
Villas at Grand Californian	1,136,865
Villas at Grand Floridian	2,520,379

Brilliant minds think alike as they say!! LOL!!

Thanks for posting the points - great info!

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

It is strange. AKL has 7.4 million points available which is not a small amount but there are very few contracts coming to market. AKL is the only "bus" resort we would consider so maybe there are a bunch of people thinking the same way?

For reference:

Resort	Total Points
Animal Kingdom Villas - Jambo	1,803,844
Animal Kingdom Villas- Kidani	5,595,400
Aulani	11,519,025
Beach Club Villas	3,027,124
Bay Lake Tower	5,732,762
Boardwalk Villas	4,888,837
Boulder Ridge Villas at Wilderness Lodge	1,961,969
Copper Creek Cabin & Villas	3,321,966
Hilton Head Island	1,368,962
Old Key West	7,674,852
Polynesian Villas and Bungalows	4,032,720
Saratoga Springs Resort	13,124,069
Saratoga Springs Resort - Treehouse Villas	905,250
Vero Beach	1,616,438
Villas at Grand Californian	1,136,865
Villas at Grand Floridian	2,520,379

Just 3-4 months ago I was thinking there was a lot of AKL contracts for sale. Now people have been buying during the past 2 months and there's a minimal supply. What I've noticed over 12 years of watching resale is that things are cyclical (not predictable) and different resorts will go in spurts. There's been times when SSR had a large number available and then has gotten down to where you couldn't find more than a handful with any one broker.

 

[ofcabbagesandkings]

AKL is the only resort I want because it's my favorite WDW resort and I would always be happy to stay there if I couldn't book elsewhere. I'm likewise looking for a small 100-125 resale contract with a Sep-Oct Use Year but I won't pay more than $90pp. If prices don't go that low, then I guess I won't be buying DVC.

 

[EM Lawrence]

Just 3-4 months ago I was thinking there was a lot of AKL contracts for sale. Now people have been buying during the past 2 months and there's a minimal supply. What I've noticed over 12 years of watching resale is that things are cyclical (not predictable) and different resorts will go in spurts. There's been times when SSR had a large number available and then has gotten down to where you couldn't find more than a handful with any one broker.

It seems like it is VGF‘s turn to have a lot of inventory for sale right now. Of maybe that’s just with one broker.

 

[WanderlustinFP]

It seems like it is VGF‘s turn to have a lot of inventory for sale right now. Of maybe that’s just with one broker.

I don't own any contracts, but I'm looking to buy VGF resale. Which site do you see a lot of inventory for sale?

 

[CastAStone]

I don't own any contracts, but I'm looking to buy VGF resale. Which site do you see a lot of inventory for sale?

Theres a few dozen here but they are almost all ridiculously overpriced. You'll probably find better prices shopping around.