Where do the sellers come from?

Newbie500

Mouseketeer
Joined
May 4, 2019
Just wondering. I read a lot about purchasing DVC and the pros and cons and how its not an investment. I see many purchases of many different resorts. I also see that there appears to be a pretty robust resale market including sellers of resorts that have only relatively recently been added to DVC (BLT, GF, Poly for example). Is it more or less likely that in the future (say, next 10 years) there will still be plenty of sellers and that the resale prices for BLT, GF and Poly will be higher than today? Why would owners of those resorts be motivated to sell?
 
Most people who buy direct have no idea what they are really buying into, and find that they really shouldn't have after a few years, so they sell.
 
I'll share my story again :)

I just sold three contracts (2BWV & 1 SSR) and we bought DVC when our daughter was 6 or 7 years old. I was a Disney CM and really thought that we'd always go. So fast forward 20 years and while me & hubby still go to WDW, our vacationing has changed dramatically. We just don't like the parks anymore because they're insanely crowded and it's only going to get worse.

We remember the days where we could walk through Epcot, HS & AK & be able to breathe. There was no major fastpass rush or much need for dining reservations and "Magic" happened all the time on a regular basis, without having to pay for it. Our past few trips turned us off from WDW completely. We let our WDW annual passes expire & went with Universal AP's..which is much more relaxed & adult-oriented. We're even trying Sea World this year :)

We're keeping one SSR contract, because SSR has become our favorite resort (After I said I'd NEVER like it). Staying there, we eat off property & can just go hang out in Disney Springs in the evening or golf. We did just add on points at Vero, which we fell in love with last year. The point prices are a bargain & the increase in MF is negligible and having the home resort booking for Vero is kinda nice. We're actually talking about selling the last SSR contract, because we can easily book SSR through RCI using another timeshare we have.

I was a little worried that I'd feel sad about selling our points (especially the BWV because that was our first "Home") But we actually feel fantastic about it :)
 
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We own at several resorts including contracts with 150 points each we bought resale for AK and Boulder ridge several years ago. We just put those two contracts up for sale becUse we would like to replace with a big contract at OKW which is our favorite resort. We won’t buy a OKW contract until we sell
 


People's lives change. The person I bought my contract from had it about 10 years, and I'm sure they got to the point where they just weren't using it anymore and would rather have the 20K I paid them for it.

I can see myself selling in 15 years or so.
 
Divorce. Sickness. Loss of Job. Disney is no longer of interest. Kids are grown. Want to go other places. DVC Isnt for us. Parks are getting more and more crowded, and while Disney resorts are nice, there are certainly nicer ones.
There are a ton of reasons.

Also remember there are literally over a hundred thousand DVC members, and probably 200,000 + contracts out there.

I do not see why there would not be plenty of sellers 10 years from now for BLT, GF and Poly. As you approach 2042, its possible that people will not sell the 2042 resorts, because they just might not get that much for them, who knows there.

I am curious to see what happens in 2042. A lot of rooms will be coming out of DVC inventory. (Let alone the OKW 2042-2057 issue) Granted, many owners might be to an age where they just do not care, but those deeds that get passed down to younger generations, and then expire? Those people might be hooked. Might have a lot of people losing contracts in 2042 that will want in again. It will be interesting to see.
 
Why would owners of those resorts be motivated to sell?
I believe there are various reasons why people sell - death, health, financial, divorce - are probably the biggest reasons. Some people may have bought many years ago and decided it is no longer for them.

I just bought a Poly resale contract -- from looking up on the OCC I was able to see that the owners bought in June of 2017 and they pulled a mortgage to buy it. So here they are selling 2 years later. I was able to figure out that they had their contract on the market since Sept or Oct of last year. So a little over a year of owning they decided to sell. From the point status they had probably only taken one trip, had to cancel a trip because they were points in holding. The resale broker told me they had a mortgage so they had to stick to getting a certain amount for their contract to pay it off. Who knows what the sellers situation was. They bought direct, probably bought while on vacation and then realized it wasn't a financial commitment that they wanted/needed.

Our other AKL resale contract was purchased direct by the sellers in 2012 and we bought it in 2015 -- so again a very short life of ownership. Is someone has bought a few years ago and sees where the market is now they could easily sell for a decent profit making their DVC accomodations essentially having cost nothing. That too could be a motivator to selling. Sell while the market is hot and before there is another recession.

My family intends on using our contracts for various trips to Aulani, hopefully VGC, many WDW trips -- but if at some point we need the money or no longer want to go to WDW we will sell.
 


All 4 of my resale contracts were sold by their direct owners, less than 2 years into owning the contracts, I think this is pretty typical for a lot of pixie dust eyed people. Then the MF's kick in and WDW price increases hit as well.
 
... Is it more or less likely that in the future (say, next 10 years) there will still be plenty of sellers and that the resale prices for BLT, GF and Poly will be higher than today? ...
There’s really no way to know whether resale prices for BLT, GF, and Poly will be higher in 10 years than they are today. There was a time during the recession a decade ago that resale prices were lower than they had been. Thus, if there’s another recession we’ll most likely see reduced prices again.
Generally, other than the recession years, resale prices have increased, however, DVC has thrown a monkey wrench into the works by ending the ability to use resale legacy resort points to book into new DVC resorts. Right now it’s not that big a deal with only Riviera being off limits, but after that will be Reflections and who knows what they’ll build going forward, if the new resorts are desirable the inability to book with legacy resale points (including BLT, GF, and Poly resale points) could reduce their resale prices.
Riviera resale points will only be able to book Riviera, thus those resale prices might well be lower. At some point the 2042 resorts are bound to decline in value - it’s hard to predict whether lower values from Riviera & the 2042 resort resales will have a negative psychological effect on the resale prices for other resorts like BLT, GF, and Poly.
I think future DVC resale price increases are less likely going forward than they have previously been because DVC seems to be focused on stripping value from resale points.
 
Apparently from good analysis on here, most people who buy DVC hold it very long term, contrary to the theory that average length of ownership is 15 years or so. The vast majority of people who bought OKW 25 years ago, still own it.
As to OPs question- millions of points are sold, of course you will get some people in over their heads, decide they don’t want to go anymore, kids grow up, need the capital back for retirement, get divorced, didn’t really know what they were buying - etc, but it’s a relatively small percentage apparently. However, even this small percentage adds up to a good supply of contracts hitting the market.
I think buyers who make a mistake often sell quick, hence the stories on here why the contracts haven’t been held for long. Buyers who known what they are buying hold long term. Two of my contracts they had held very long term, both since SSR opened and they were now retirees.
Apparently there are also quite a few people who sell when a new resort they like comes out, and buy there instead.
 
I personally think that a lot of it is folks:

A) who get the fever to buy, without really being able to afford it, then are in the position of having to sell within a year or two...

or

B) who buy without having any idea of how it really works and don't buy enough points (thinking they'll just always book AKV value or BWV standard then become disenchanted when they can't book 5 nights on 50 points), etc.
 
I personally think that a lot of it is folks:

A) who get the fever to buy, without really being able to afford it, then are in the position of having to sell within a year or two...

or

B) who buy without having any idea of how it really works and don't buy enough points (thinking they'll just always book AKV value or BWV standard then become disenchanted when they can't book 5 nights on 50 points), etc.
I think a third group is a close cousin of the second group. They buy in not understanding availability at your home resort or at other resorts. They think they will be able to stay at all the resorts with last minute availability. Then they find out, home resort owners take all the availability of the studios most times of the year. Even worse, you have to be a planner! It is best to have plans at 11 months, and almost a must to have them at 7 months. Until you own and live it, it just does sink in for many. If you don't plan early, you are left with few to no options. After a couple of years of either losing points or "wasting" points on a stay you don't prefer, you sell.
 
I think a third group is a close cousin of the second group. They buy in not understanding availability at your home resort or at other resorts. They think they will be able to stay at all the resorts with last minute availability. Then they find out, home resort owners take all the availability of the studios most times of the year. Even worse, you have to be a planner! It is best to have plans at 11 months, and almost a must to have them at 7 months. Until you own and live it, it just does sink in for many. If you don't plan early, you are left with few to no options. After a couple of years of either losing points or "wasting" points on a stay you don't prefer, you sell.

Even 11 months seems to short to plan for our family...Losing points is a reoccurring nightmare of mine ha
 
We owned:
200 OKW June UY---------SOLD in 2019
125 HHI Aug UY (50/50/25 contracts)
100 AKV Aug UY----------SOLD in 2015
205 BWV June UY (150/55 contracts)
50 BWV Aug UY (25/25 contracts)
70 CCV Aug UY

Bought small contracts as we had the cash to buy outright and not finance. Was using a lot of points with 3 kids and many extended family and friends trips. Sold the 100 AKV because we found we could use our OKW (or other contracts) to book there at 7 months and we needed the money at the time we sold. And we sold at a gain of $15pp. Then our kids all went off to college and Disney/DVC started to tick us off with all the stuff they're doing so we just sold the 200 OKW. Next to sell is likely the 50 BWV Aug UY as it's a pain to combine with our June UY BWV (transferring has been a pain). Plus we can recoup what we paid (we bought them direct at around $130pp).

So some need to downsize. Some buy the wrong resort for them (so they sell and buy right resort). Some just want out all together (either kids aged out or they also are irked by the things Disney/DVC does). Some can't afford to keep them.
 
A couple of our resale contracts were bought from divorcing sellers and those took the longest to close. We have young kids and bought a couple years ago intending to never sell (but who knows what the future will bring). Life happens and I think there will continue to be a healthy resale market unless something drastic happens.
 
I have my contract under contract right now to sell because I am wanting to go with a weight loss surgery abroad. I have a lower BMI and the insurance companies here in the states won't cover it, so it is out of pocket. But I must admit, even if I hadn't have wanted to do this surgery, with the recent price increases, I might have been considering selling anyways. I have a feeling the market may very well get saturated with DVC contracts in the next 12-18 months.
 
I have my contract under contract right now to sell because I am wanting to go with a weight loss surgery abroad. I have a lower BMI and the insurance companies here in the states won't cover it, so it is out of pocket. But I must admit, even if I hadn't have wanted to do this surgery, with the recent price increases, I might have been considering selling anyways. I have a feeling the market may very well get saturated with DVC contracts in the next 12-18 months.
Best wishes to you. You seemed to have really enjoyed your DVC ownership, and now you are doing something for your health.
 
The best question would be: where are all the sellers?
More than 80% of the deeds sold at OKW are still owned by the original buyers. For a 27 years old resort it is impressive. Unless there is a mass sellout anytime soon, it seems the average ownership lenght will be over 30 years. For a timeshare! Many people don't own their house that long. The reason DVC resale prices are so high is that not many owners sell.
 
The best question would be: where are all the sellers?
More than 80% of the deeds sold at OKW are still owned by the original buyers. For a 27 years old resort it is impressive. Unless there is a mass sellout anytime soon, it seems the average ownership lenght will be over 30 years. For a timeshare! Many people don't own their house that long. The reason DVC resale prices are so high is that not many owners sell.
Agreed. There are probably 200,000 or more DVC contracts out there. In reality, there are not a lot of contracts on the market.

I also think there is this "used car" mentality. When a car is for sale, people wonder, is there something wrong with it? And that is a legit possibility. But there is nothing 'wrong' with a DVC contract (except it not having as many points as you want). People just don't want them any more at times. It is not a red flag to me, and I think some people think it is. Its not a lemon.

I bought my first contract in 2013. Second in 2016. Both would now fetch more on the resale market than I paid for them. I would have been happy if each was within a few thousand dollars of what I paid, let alone MORE than i paid.
 
At least if you bought CCV and had to sell a short time later, the resale contracts have a decent price, but Riviera with it's restrictions is a big issue. I think the first contract as will be listed around CCV prices, but will be lowered, because a lot of people, not all, like the option to stay at other resorts. Rumors has it the resort is not selling well. If that is true, resale will probably suffer. The resort looks very nice and we would like to at least stay there once. It is very point hungry. The small tower studios for two is about the same as a studio pool/garden/boardwalk view at BWV. If It we're just 2 going it might be ok, but it's a Murphy style bed and the room is tiny. I personally would like as full sized studio for that price. If they were prices near standard/value point costs then maybe. Who knows maybe at some point DVC will wake up and smell the coffee and get rid of the RIV restrictions.


I'm sure others would agree with me on this. If they did this to a DVC resort at Disneyland in CA they would sell fast due to the restrictions the city put on time shares limiting how many rooms Disney can have.
 
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