I doubt you will find that info anywhere.
I used to work for a convention and visitors bureau and this was info we charged vendors for.
Also, there could be a ton of conventions but you would never know whether they would impact your trip.
As for the tour groups, you may consider a group of 100 brazilians a major impact to your trip but to Disney they're a drop in the bucket and they may not even know of their existence until they show up.
I think you just have to use historical data and realize that the Brazilians, I think, are generally there in december and july and that pop warner is the beginning of december.
BTW if you are there the third week of Feb, be on the lookout for me and my group, the Northgate Flames Marching Band. We will be the ones wearing the matching red and gold T shirts. Don't worry we don't tour as a group.
PS when we went four years ago the , same time in feb, we were the only matching shirts that I saw.