When will the 'recession' be over?!

[polineedyan]

I work in the restaurant industry. I am a tipped/hourly employee. I left my old job about 5 years ago to get back into the restaurant gig. At the time, I was making a good bit more by making the move.
Now, here we are..No one is coming in to our store. It got bad around december, and has gotten progressively worse.
Since our trip last month, the freeway near my job has been going thru major reconstruction. The exit ramps which are about an eighth of a mile from our store are completely closed. This has left our more urban clientele no way to get to the store. I returned from our trip to find that the store is just desolate. I just dont know how long I can keep doing this.
To go back to my other job would garner me about 300 bucks a month more. At the same time, I'd have to hire a babysitter and work much longer hours.
I am getting to a point where I am happy to have a job, because the prospects dont look too good for finding any other work.
I know that no one has the answer, but I sometimes wonder just how long we can take this..
Thanks for the vent..

 

[christa112]

I feel your pain. I work retail and that is a pretty scary place to be right now. Sales are down around 30% from last year and this is pretty much an average of all the stores in my mall.

I wish I had the answer for you.

I work in the restaurant industry. I am a tipped/hourly employee. I left my old job about 5 years ago to get back into the restaurant gig. At the time, I was making a good bit more by making the move.
Now, here we are..No one is coming in to our store. It got bad around december, and has gotten progressively worse.
Since our trip last month, the freeway near my job has been going thru major reconstruction. The exit ramps which are about an eighth of a mile from our store are completely closed. This has left our more urban clientele no way to get to the store. I returned from our trip to find that the store is just desolate. I just dont know how long I can keep doing this.
To go back to my other job would garner me about 300 bucks a month more. At the same time, I'd have to hire a babysitter and work much longer hours.
I am getting to a point where I am happy to have a job, because the prospects dont look too good for finding any other work.
I know that no one has the answer, but I sometimes wonder just how long we can take this..
Thanks for the vent..

 

[kydisneyfans]

It will remain slow until the unemployment situation stabilizes. The remaining part can't be discussed here because it is political, but just under a trillion dollars has been wasted IMO.

 

[Planogirl]

I keep hearing that things won't really improve until next year. I need them to get better too because I desperately need another job. I don't even see much to apply for right now and you're right, it's good just to have a job nowadays.

 

[P.I. Squirrel]

I keep hearing that things won't really improve until next year. I need them to get better too because I desperately need another job. I don't even see much to apply for right now and you're right, it's good just to have a job nowadays.

Unfortunately, I don't believe we will be in a position of growth for two years or so. I hope I am wrong, but I'm not planning on it.

First, we have to end this vicious cycle of unemployment. When a half million a week are losing their jobs still, that's lots of money not being spent. The less money spent, the more layoffs will happen.

And, nope, I don't have the answer.

 

[jlima]

Consumer spending drives the economy, plain & simple. When people start spending money again, that is when the recession will end. And that will happen when there is confidence in the air and people aren't afraid of spending money.

 

[MoniqueU]

For me wen our taxes drop, when food prices stabilize, when energy prices stabilize, gas prices stabilize, kids are out or braces, sports and son is out of pricate school. We will be making more when things are better for the rest of the ountry but until those tiings change for us it won't make much of a difference.

 

[Kay1]

Consumer spending drives the economy, plain & simple. When people start spending money again, that is when the recession will end. And that will happen when there is confidence in the air and people aren't afraid of spending money.

Also, people were spending money that they just didn't have - money not earned and saved. This has been a big problem for several years. Some of us here, including DVCgirl, have been uneasy since 2004 (I started shaking my head in 2003) when the housing bubble was going full blast and people were doing cash-out refi's and the banks were giving platinum credit cards to whomever applied.

If you Google Credit Suisse mortgage reset chart, you'll see it's not over. My current focus is unemployment. I think we'll be struggling for quite some time.

OP, I would guide you to some financial sites but so many economists are in total disagreement right now, I don't know if it would do you much good. I've been reading at Financial Armageddon for a few years now. It's run by Michael Panzer whom you may know from Bloomberg or CNBC. He watches everything that goes on and is one who doesn't pretend to be able to predict the future.

I believe that we many need to tinker on global, national, local, and individual levels, and stay as positive as possible.

 

[dvcgirl]

I keep hearing that things won't really improve until next year. I need them to get better too because I desperately need another job. I don't even see much to apply for right now and you're right, it's good just to have a job nowadays.

Maybe....maybe not on the "improvement next year". The markets are struggling with this right now. The recession may officially come to an end, but what kind of growth will we see? Sluggish....

And I keep asking myself, where's all of this growth going to come from? And again, my favorite stat is the one from the Fed...that in 2005, Americans pulled 800 Billion Bucks out of their homes and *spent* it. That's almost 6% of GDP right there. Credit is still contracting. We're still in it for awhile I'm afraid.

OP, where do you live? There's such a huge regional component to this recession. I mean, I think we're all feeling it to a certain degree, whether it's a slight drop in housing values for some or a big drop in investments for others....but some regions are experiencing a Great Recession.....

 

[dvcgirl]

Also, people were spending money that they just didn't have - money not earned and saved. This has been a big problem for several years. Some of us here, including DVCgirl, have been uneasy since 2004 (I started shaking my head in 2003) when the housing bubble was going full blast and people were doing cash-out refi's and the banks were giving platinum credit cards to whomever applied.

If you Google Credit Suisse mortgage reset chart, you'll see it's not over. My current focus is unemployment. I think we'll be struggling for quite some time.

OP, I would guide you to some financial sites but so many economists are in total disagreement right now, I don't know if it would do you much good. I've been reading at Financial Armageddon for a few years now. It's run by Michael Panzer whom you may know from Bloomberg or CNBC. He watches everything that goes on and is one who doesn't pretend to be able to predict the future.

I believe that we many need to tinker on global, national, local, and individual levels, and stay as positive as possible.

Kay1, do you read The Automatic Earth? The two bloggers there are folks who were (maybe still are) regulars from the Oil Drum. The one guy was posting about a financial meltdown coming a few years back to the point where they asked him to stop doing that (as it wasn't peak oil relevant)....so they went off and started their own gig.

The commentary is good (and gloomy...lol!), but they do a great news round-up every day with articles around the world... Another Budget Board Buddy of mine reads it faithfully like I do.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

 

[MermaidsMom]

In past recessions there were manufacturing jobs to return to when things "picked up". Now there are none, they are all in other countries. Without jobs there will be no actual recovery. The new "green" jobs are pointless because no one will be able to afford the new windows, doors and insulation they are planning to produce. They are attempting to force us to purchase them by making new laws to require them during home sales/construction, etc. What home sales? What construction? They will soon close down as well. Remember ethanol?

Our stores are full of stuff from other countries and we are laughed at for mentioning it as a problem. It's actually exciting to find a product that is only ASSEMBLED in the USA!

Oh well, welcome to the new normal. Unemployment benefits are about to run out once and for all for many people (no more extentions) and I worry about what happens then. The government can only employ people for so long until the tax dollars aren't there to pay them anymore.

Raising taxes on folks making over $200K is going to make it worse because they will stop spending even more than they already have....money they would've gone to Disney with now goes to the government.

Lower taxes on everyone will put money into the waitresses pocket because folks will go out to dinner when they have money to spend.

 

[Janet Hill]

In past recessions there were manufacturing jobs to return to when things "picked up". Now there are none, they are all in other countries. Without jobs there will be no actual recovery. The new "green" jobs are pointless because no one will be able to afford the new windows, doors and insulation they are planning to produce. They are attempting to force us to purchase them by making new laws to require them during home sales/construction, etc. What home sales? What construction? They will soon close down as well.

Our stores are full of stuff from other countries and we are laughed at for mentioning it as a problem. It's actually exciting to find a product that is only ASSEMBLED in the USA!

Oh well, welcome to the new normal. Unemployment benefits are about to run out once and for all for many people (no more extentions) and I worry about what happens then. The government can only employ people for so long until the tax dollars aren't there to pay them anymore.

Totally agree.

When will we wake up and realize that until the manufacturing jobs and other off shored jobs come back there will be no recovery to speak of. The jobs won't be back though unless corporations can manufacture here for a reasonable cost. Fastest way to get them back is by cutting corporate income taxes. I've never quite understood why people think a corporate income tax is good. Corporations don't really pay the tax anyway - they pass it on to the consumer.

I constantly look for items made in the USA and it's getting quite hard to find.

 

[VAN]

The recession is going to last until we can get people back to work. The Administration is doing everything it can to put obstacles in the way of running successful businesses (which employee people), thereby driving business OUT of the U.S. By interfering in market corrections, we are just prolonging the situation.

Looks like we are in it for the long haul because the Administration doesn't understand economics and doesn't appear to care.

No end in sight and getting worse each day.

 

[Colleen27]

Oh well, welcome to the new normal. Unemployment benefits are about to run out once and for all for many people (no more extentions) and I worry about what happens then. The government can only employ people for so long until the tax dollars aren't there to pay them anymore.

Unfortunately, I agree. And not to pick on you, OP, but this thread goes a long way to explain the problem - so many people are just waiting for things to get back to a normal that likely isn't coming back, because it was so dependent upon easy credit and high housing values that we're not likely to see again any time in the foreseeable future, rather than looking at ways to make a new normal work for them.

Rather than asking when the national economic picture is going to improve, people (most especially those long-term unemployed) need to start thinking beyond "getting back to normal" and realize that there are ways to make the "new normal" more palatable in the meantime. Perpetual double-digit growth was never sustainable, and it isn't coming back IMO.

 

[HM]

I can't tell where you live. I'm sorry things are so tough. Pixies for you!
If you could move to the triangle area in NC, you'd still find people eating out all the time. I drive by a lot of restaurants each day (mostly chains) and their parking lots are almost always full all week long.

 

[dvcgirl]

The recession is going to last until we can get people back to work. The Administration is doing everything it can to put obstacles in the way of running successful businesses (which employee people), thereby driving business OUT of the U.S. By interfering in market corrections, we are just prolonging the situation.

Looks like we are in it for the long haul because the Administration doesn't understand economics and doesn't appear to care.

No end in sight and getting worse each day.

I think our economy is just trying to find a "happy medium" at this point. The previous administration...and the one before that as well.....built their massive "growth economies" on the back of huge stock, housing and credit bubbles.

We can't grow our economy on the back of a housing market that is experiencing double digit annual gains. The only thing that gave us was The Mother of All ATM machines which financed lots of Escalades, shopping sprees and trips the Disney World.

Many Americans realized a "pseudo" jump in quality of life based on this borrowed money. It was only a matter of time until it all came tumbling down. Now it's back to "slow and steady wins the race". Americans are licking their wounds and are already beginning to save again...that will lead to investment and that will once again lead to growth. But we aren't going back to a 40:1 leveraged world. And that's going to take a lot of people who thought that they had "made it", and knock them back down a notch.

 

[Janet Hill]

Looks like we are in it for the long haul because the Administration doesn't understand economics and doesn't appear to care.

Sad thing is, I think the Administration does know what they're doing. They are making us a nation dependent on government and I think that is the plan.

 

[Microcell]

The recession is going to last until we can get people back to work. The Administration is doing everything it can to put obstacles in the way of running successful businesses (which employee people), thereby driving business OUT of the U.S. By interfering in market corrections, we are just prolonging the situation.

Looks like we are in it for the long haul because the Administration doesn't understand economics and doesn't appear to care.

No end in sight and getting worse each day.

Amen!

That is what happens when you vote for a man and not his policies!

 

[Tinkerbelle32]

I'm afraid with the new administration it's only going to get worse before it gets better!! Not trying to be a nancy naysayer, but I've felt this way since the elections last November!!

 

[Colleen27]

Totally agree.

When will we wake up and realize that until the manufacturing jobs and other off shored jobs come back there will be no recovery to speak of. The jobs won't be back though unless corporations can manufacture here for a reasonable cost. Fastest way to get them back is by cutting corporate income taxes. I've never quite understood why people think a corporate income tax is good. Corporations don't really pay the tax anyway - they pass it on to the consumer.

I constantly look for items made in the USA and it's getting quite hard to find.

No difference in tax rates can compare with the differences in labor, and anyone who claims otherwise is trying to sell something (probably on behalf of the campaign donors who got him into office in the first place). Unless we're talking about subsidizing businesses to offset the tens of thousands more they are spending on each and every employee here vs in a third world country, there will never be good enough reason for companies to bring jobs back here. I don't care if you lower my taxes to zero - if each American employee costs me 30K (in wages, benefits, and cost of compliance with things like social security and unemployment) and I can hire 6 workers in China for the same money, it is going to make more sense to build things in China.

I do think we'll eventually see the return of some manufacturing to the US, but not until such a time as the cost of oil makes shipping consumer goods all over the world cost-prohibitive.