When will the 'recession' be over?!

[wall*e2008]

Totally agree.

When will we wake up and realize that until the manufacturing jobs and other off shored jobs come back there will be no recovery to speak of. The jobs won't be back though unless corporations can manufacture here for a reasonable cost. Fastest way to get them back is by cutting corporate income taxes. I've never quite understood why people think a corporate income tax is good. Corporations don't really pay the tax anyway - they pass it on to the consumer.

I constantly look for items made in the USA and it's getting quite hard to find.

The CEO of GE stated that all the outsourcing was a mistake and they plan to bring some back to the US. I hope this becomes a trend. Only time will turn.

I think we are now at the bottom but the climb out will be slow. We could see some improvements in early to mid 2010.

The other day I saw that the savings rate for the US was up to 7%. We are saving (the stimulus money) and eventually we will need to replace things. People will start to buy then.

We bought a microwave last weekend and it is made in the US.

 

[eliza61]

Also, people were spending money that they just didn't have - money not earned and saved. This has been a big problem for several years. Some of us here, including DVCgirl, have been uneasy since 2004 (I started shaking my head in 2003) when the housing bubble was going full blast and people were doing cash-out refi's and the banks were giving platinum credit cards to whomever applied.

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Absolutely right. Op, I think you (and all of us in this country) are going to have to reset our way of thinking. I think the days of free spending, freewheeling, unending credit are for the most part over. From the average Joe to the government we spent, spent, spent and now that has come to a grinding halt.

I think the economy has readjusted. we will see much slower rates of growth, more moderate home value growth (no more of the stupid double digit rise in home values that just could not be sustained).

I'm not going to get into the "it's this administrations fault" because bottom line is this problem has been growing waaay before this administration, jobs have been leaving this country since the 70's even when corporations were damn near making love to the past administration, so the old "cut corporate taxes has just lead to "big corporate greed" and not 1 new job. So we brought into it hook line and sinker. Let's remember this recession did not start in November '08. no matter how good it makes you feel to believe so.

 

[punkin]

I am a pessimist by nature. I think we are not at bottom and I think it will get significantly worse. My crystal ball is in the shop but I predict we will not hit bottom until middle of next year and then we will stay there for about a year or even two before slowly (very slowly) and sluggishly resuming growth.

If talking about economic policies were not against the TOS, I would tell you exactly why I think we will resemble Japan's "lost decade."

 

[spima3]

Well, my DH is a manufacturing tech, and back in late 90's, he started losing one job after another as they all moved to Mexico and then China. Back then, I felt the US was in serious trouble. We struggled mightily to keep afloat, forget getting ahead.

For many, the housing bubble allowed people to keep on borrowing and spending and kept the economy cranking along, but it was debt based, not true wealth. The bubble burst, and the chickens have come home to roost.

The government is trying to boost a country that no longer is capable of employing it's own people any longer. But it's only creating it's own bubble. Maybe, that will boost the economy for a brief period of time, but when the government bubble bursts, where do we go from there?

The manufacturing base, as well as a lot of other jobs have gone overseas and I doubt they will ever come back, or if they do, they will be far different then they were. AND for those who say it is due to corporate taxes? You tell me why any company is going to pay a worker here, when they can pay slave wages overseas, not have to address safety issues? not worry about pollution? or child labor laws? or..... the list goes on and on; corporate tax issues are only a small part.

I think the areas of growth have been: government, healthcare, and education. DH went the gov't route. We are now finally starting to get ahead again, but we've been on this road longer than a lot of others.

The US is forever changed and for many, it isn't for the better.

 

[dvcgirl]

The CEO of GE stated that all the outsourcing was a mistake and they plan to bring some back to the US. I hope this becomes a trend. Only time will turn.
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A few of those jobs may come back, but they're going to be $14 hourly jobs with limited benefits and defined contribution plans (401Ks) instead of "golden watch" pensions.....

 

[wall*e2008]

A few of those jobs may come back, but they're going to be $14 hourly jobs with limited benefits and defined contribution plans (401Ks) instead of "golden watch" pensions.....

Some will, but it will beat being unemployed. Many others will be better paying job, maybe less than they were when they left but certainly way more than $14. We lost many tech jobs and the cost of doing business in India is getting expensive and the differential is not the huge amount it was before.

 

[Colleen27]

I am a pessimist by nature. I think we are not at bottom and I think it will get significantly worse. My crystal ball is in the shop but I predict we will not hit bottom until middle of next year and then we will stay there for about a year or even two before slowly (very slowly) and sluggishly resuming growth.

I agree, but I do sometimes wonder if living where I do (Detroit native, now residing in semi-rural SE Michigan) is the reason I'm not as optimistic as all the experts I see/read in the news. I don't think we're anywhere near the bottom yet, sadly. Right now, we're somewhat insulated from the true scope of the unemployment problem; I don't think that particular aspect of the problem will hit rock-bottom until unemployment, lay off benefits, and severence packages run out for large numbers of people and we see the unmitigated effects of the current unemployment rate.

 

[spima3]

Some will, but it will beat being unemployed. Many others will be better paying job, maybe less than they were when they left but certainly way more than $14. We lost many tech jobs and the cost of doing business in India is getting expensive and the differential is not the huge amount it was before.

You may be right, but considering the millions of jobs that have gone overseas, the amount coming back will probably be minimul in comparison.

Or, when the corporations have no other country to exploit and the differentials are truly negligible, than the corporations may look to the US labor market again, but the US standard of living is going to be greatly reduced.

As you can see, I am not exactly an optomist!

 

[Planogirl]

Some of you are getting a bit political...

Anyway, I don't see why jobs will come back to the US in any great amount. Our company is a perfect illustration. We had jobs paying just 11-13 dollars an hour which were moved to Chile just a few years ago due to lower labor costs. Keep in mind that the costs don't just include the wages but also the benefits. Why would companies such as mine ever bring these jobs back? They are paying far less in salaries and don't have to worry much about benefits now.

I see this example as being very common and I don't see what will change this situation.

 

[Took]

Absolutely right. Op, I think you (and all of us in this country) are going to have to reset our way of thinking. I think the days of free spending, freewheeling, unending credit are for the most part over. From the average Joe to the government we spent, spent, spent and now that has come to a grinding halt.

I think the economy has readjusted. we will see much slower rates of growth, more moderate home value growth (no more of the stupid double digit rise in home values that just could not be sustained).

I'm not going to get into the "it's this administrations fault" because bottom line is this problem has been growing waaay before this administration, jobs have been leaving this country since the 70's even when corporations were damn near making love to the past administration, so the old "cut corporate taxes has just lead to "big corporate greed" and not 1 new job. So we brought into it hook line and sinker. Let's remember this recession did not start in November '08. no matter how good it makes you feel to believe so.

I agree entirely. THis problem has been 30 years or more coming. I certainly remember hearing talk 15 years or more ago that a credit "meltdown" would eventually happen.

Everyone is feeling 'pain' in one way or another. Our area has been hit more gently than many b/c we were never very good to begin with (NO housing bubble here, lol). Things aren't good, but they could be worse here.

I agree also that the recovery looks slow and probably will take another year or so, to begin to to pick up. In the meantime, we're being careful but still spending some, too. I want to keep businesses going in my area and that won't happen if those with stable jobs stop spending (maybe I'm stupid...).

BTW, I hope this thread doesn't turn political (blaming one particular administation or another) and get shut down, but the feelings the OP expresses are worth sharing.

took

 

[Joyful3Heart]

I grew up west of Pittsburgh in the 80's...the steel mills were shutting down, manufacturing was being sent overseas...at the time it felt like we were the only one's struggling. If you look back, people talk about the great boom in the 80's. That boom didn't affect the steelworkers. In fact, many cities and towns in my area relied on these manufacturing giants for their entire economy. Some are now just great centers of urban decay. I feel like I am experiencing Dejavu now, only on a national scale, with the autoworkers in much the same boat, as well as airline workers etc, etc, etc.
My parents had to reinvent themselves, returning to school, working 3 jobs, relying on the help of family and friends. As americans we need to do the same...reinvent our way of thinking. Money is finite, save first, spend later. If you can afford a $125,000 house, buy a $125,000 house.
When will it end...I don't know...but let me tell you it took my family 8 years to fully recover...How long will it take a nation?

 

[Kay1]

Some of you are getting a bit political...


I see this example as being very common and I don't see what will change this situation.

Yes, some are becoming somewhat political on a board where it's not allowed. It's also a foolish waste of time and remember - most of the media are owned and influenced by big corporations who would love to see us point the finger and one another, or one political party or another, rather than come together and point our collective finger at them.

I guess the corporations will bring back the jobs when it costs less to do business here than it does "over there." At least you're thinking PlanoGirl and don't seem hung up on any ideology. IMVHO, that may help you adapt to whatever the future holds.

Thank you, DVCGirl. I followed the link to the Automatic Earth. I've seen some of the linked articles on other sites - very gloomy, so I'll be sure to add it to my daily diet of doom.

 

[MusiqChic99]

My DH was laid off for 3 months. I was asking the same question. Thankfully he was called back and has even had some decent OT. There are talks of bigger things were he is too so I pray that keeps up.

However they say that when the jobs become more reliable and unemployment drops then the economy won't get better. On the other hand they said jobs are always the last to recover so it can be a while.

 

[eliza61]

Some of you are getting a bit political...
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My apologies and 10 wacks on my noogin with tinkerbells wand.

My hope is for the recession to be over soon. My hope is that we return to a more sensible time when people did believe in saving for a rainy day, where we recognize a trip to disney is a "want" not a "need" (man, am I so guilty of this) and every one who wants to work can find a job.

 

[mjantz]

I think its going to take a few years. I also think its going to take a serious re-thinking of what jobs are available & what training is needed. The days of getting a job right out of H.S. & working 'on the line' for 40 years & retiring are coming to an end. I'm not saying everyone needs a college degree but you probably will need training of some form to get a good job.

Also, we need to spend smartly. We tend to either feast or famine in regards to spending. We're going on trips & buying huge houses or we're clamped down & holding on to our dimes for dear life. We still need to spend money. Go out to eat on a week night, buy a new item of clothing, take your kids to the movies. Spend a little money. Don't be stupid about it but even small things can help.

 

[preschoolmom]

Kay1, do you read The Automatic Earth? The two bloggers there are folks who were (maybe still are) regulars from the Oil Drum. The one guy was posting about a financial meltdown coming a few years back to the point where they asked him to stop doing that (as it wasn't peak oil relevant)....so they went off and started their own gig.

The commentary is good (and gloomy...lol!), but they do a great news round-up every day with articles around the world... Another Budget Board Buddy of mine reads it faithfully like I do.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

Thanks, this is a great site. I've been reading it all morning!

 

[crisi]

I think it depends on what you mean.

Technically, I think it will be over soon - as in "soon our economy will begin expanding again" - there are signs we have hit bottom.

But an expanding economy does not mean unemployment returns to 3%, or that you make what you made a year ago, or that people go out to dinner at the same rate they used to. A recession ending doesn't mean "a return to what it was" - it means "a return to growth."

A return to what it was? In any recession some people are left behind forever. Some people are lucky enough or smart enough to take advantage of the circumstances and do better than ever during the recession itself. A restaurant might be slow, but a bankruptcy paralegal might have more hours than they can stand right now. For most people, I'm not sure that we will ever see 'what it was' - any more than our grandparents/great grandparents who roared through the 20s ever got to see that sort of economy again. The period we just lived through was an anomoly, much like the 20s - and actually has a lot in common with it in how it was funded and how it ended. Lots of cheap credit, lots of speculation, lots of deregulation.

 

[polineedyan]

We live in the Cleveland area, where manufacturing jobs are on their way out, probably never to return.
Its funny you mentioned north carolina. I have a friend there, in the home painting business, who had somewhere near 1/2 million dollars in sales last year. Another friend from this area has actually been 'commuting' to that area to do outdoor lighting..When I asked a third friend why he's moving there, he said 'apparently there is still quite a construction business down there. People are still building new homes.' Found it funny you mentioned that..

 

[dvcgirl]

Thank you, DVCGirl. I followed the link to the Automatic Earth. I've seen some of the linked articles on other sites - very gloomy, so I'll be sure to add it to my daily diet of doom.

Oh, The Automatic Earth is a Doomer's Dream . I knew you'd like it....lol. They're still firmly in the "the world is coming to an end" camp. And they'll stay there, well....forever.

I'm investing again....they'd claim I was out of my mind. But I'm a contrarian at heart and so when the gloom was as its peak, I was diving back in. Still, I like the daily round-up of articles....and I lean towards pessimism when it comes to our current economic situation. I could watch Kudlow every night and think Happy Days are Here Again....but they ain't here yet .

 

[dvcgirl]

I think it depends on what you mean.

Technically, I think it will be over soon - as in "soon our economy will begin expanding again" - there are signs we have hit bottom.

But an expanding economy does not mean unemployment returns to 3%, or that you make what you made a year ago, or that people go out to dinner at the same rate they used to. A recession ending doesn't mean "a return to what it was" - it means "a return to growth."
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Yep, and it will be sucky growth....flat for a long time. I remember a poster here....can't remember her name....it was Duck-something or other....debating with me that the 1990-91 recession was worse than what we were about to go through....and I said what we were about to see was much worse. This was *way* before the crash in the fall of 2008. Can't blame her, she worked in the mortgage industry back in 1990 and thought that the S&L crisis was much worse than anything we'd ever see again. But the S&L crisis is peanuts compared to this. We're going to feel it for years and years to come.

With the massive party we just had for the past quarter century....now we're going through an honest to goodness Balance Sheet Recession. It's a Japanese Redux....

We need no further proof that we're in a Balance Sheet Recession than to point to the fact that we're at zero percent interest rates and yet American corporations are frantically paying down debt (while telling us that everything is fine). They have no choice with the massive fall in asset prices. This is exactly what happened in Japan. We're printing money like crazy and banks are hoarding it to get their balance sheets in order.

I know that you know this (Crisi)....others on this thread too. Still, I think it's worth pointing out.