When will resale bottom?

[Rylie Grite]

2

 

[supersnoop]

Existing member looking to add on via resale. With the perks being gutted for new resale purchasers when would be the best time to buy?

The market will "bottom" during the next recession. The value of the benefits that have been lost are probably less than $500. Don't expect the market to tank.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

I could argue that the resale market could go down, or I could argue that it could go up. Bottom line, nobody knows, and today's prices reflect the market's best guess. The key for me is to buy in a year and a half before you need to use the points, so you can use the 11 month booking window. If you start looking that early, you will have time to familiarize yourself with the market, recent ROFR trends, and follow the various brokers. You will have time to make an aggressively low, but fair, offer. If Disney exercises ROFR, no problem. You have time to bid on something else. If you can take the time pressure away, you can take a lot of the emotion away, and that leads to a better deal for you.

The key to buying in at a good price is to do your homework and take your time. Not having a magic eight ball.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

My Magic 8 ball says......"better not tell you now".

I can say, that when the last changes came around there were some very definite ideas of what would happen and predictions were not necessarily correct when looking long term. If you see a drop that reaches your comfort level then I'd go ahead and purchase.

 

[Supplanter]

Its already pretty good if you know what you're looking for. You can buy properties that you can rent for more than the combined annual dues + the purchase price. It's not the best investment you could make, but its a pretty safe purchase in terms of knowing you'll get value out of buying.

We're buying with the assumption we'll have 8 to 10 years of disney vacations to aulani (we live right next to Disneyland) and/ or a trip or two to Disneyworld. At that point we can either rent it out, sell it or start taking future grandkids on those trips. Those 10 trips will be well worth the 25k I paid for them plus the 15k or so in dues I'll pay on the 300 points over that decade.

If I keep it my vacations will be dirt cheap for the rest of my life, if I sell it I'll easily get back at everything I paid with the way inflation is headed and I had amazing free vacations for a decade.

 

[malba2366]

Existing member looking to add on via resale. With the perks being gutted for new resale purchasers when would be the best time to buy?

I think the points may go down a few dollars immediately as a result of less interested buyers in the next couple months due to the changes and the thought of having "just missed out"...then it will go back up to reflect current pricing. The bigger question is if Disney will allow these lower prices to go through.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

I could argue that the resale market could go down, or I could argue that it could go up. Bottom line, nobody knows, and today's prices reflect the market's best guess. The key for me is to buy in a year and a half before you need to use the points, so you can use the 11 month booking window. If you start looking that early, you will have time to familiarize yourself with the market, recent ROFR trends, and follow the various brokers. You will have time to make an aggressively low, but fair, offer. If Disney exercises ROFR, no problem. You have time to bid on something else. If you can take the time pressure away, you can take a lot of the emotion away, and that leads to a better deal for you.

The key to buying in at a good price is to do your homework and take your time. Not having a magic eight ball.

I purchased my first contract at BCV just praying I would get my membership number in time to book at 11 months for F&W. Purchased resale but probably overpaid by rushing things and not waiting for a loaded contract. Purchased my second contract without any time constraints and got a fully loaded contract. Take your time. DVC isn't going anywhere.

 

[magicaldisney]

I think it hit bottom a long time ago. I'm not sure resale sales will slow down that much after this initial chaos. A good number of people who buy resale purchased direct originally and add on through resale, so the new development wouldn't matter.

 

[rg35]

Four years ago I bought 250 points at AKL for $65/point. AKL is now up around ~$90/point.

Other factors will impact price more than losing dining discounts and epcot lounge access - namely, the overall state of the economy, and Disney exercising their ROFR on lower priced sales to prop prices back up. That fact alone means you can't rely on true open market dynamics to gauge pricing - the hand of Disney can push prices up or down as they see fit. One might expect a dip in pricing because of these changes on benefits (I don't), but if Disney decides to ROFR all of these $90/pt contracts, then prices will go up even despite the loss of member benefits for resale buyers.

When we bought, they had already removed cruise booking and other stuff, but it wasn't a factor for us. I like staying at deluxe resorts and visiting Disney yearly or every other year, and that was the main draw. Even if we were staying at moderate resorts each visit since purchasing, our original contract has already paid for itself, for current deluxe resort pricing, we're well beyond.

DVC is a timeshare, first and foremost. It's not a discount club, or anything else. Perks are just that, perks. They have never been guaranteed, and any perk can be taken away at any time. I get people being upset about things being "taken away," but in the grand scheme of things, DVC should be purchased for the lodging. Maybe the Epcot lounge will close in two years. Maybe they'll never have another DVC member beach bash after this year. Maybe DVC dining discount will be reduced to 5%, or maybe eliminated. In that sense, nothing is being lost, because there's no guarantee that any of these things will continue indefinitely into the future.

 

[Nabas]

The DVC resale market currently is hot; the new restrictions will likely have little effect in bringing down prices, although they might dampen further increases.

DVC resale prices bottomed out about 4-5 years ago due to a confluence of events, mainly a deep recession and Disney having saturated the market with DVC points from 4 large resorts (SSR, AKV, BLT, and Aulani). Disney has learned its lesson and is no longer selling anywhere the number of points it released from 2004 to 2011. Consequently, the next recession will drive down resale prices, although not to the same levels seen in 2011 and 2012 when it was possible to (for example) buy at BWV for under $60/point and BCV for under $75/point.

Based on historical performance, the next bottom should occur roughly 6-18 months after the start of the next recession.

 

[Blondedevill]

Its already pretty good if you know what you're looking for. You can buy properties that you can rent for more than the combined annual dues + the purchase price. It's not the best investment you could make, but its a pretty safe purchase in terms of knowing you'll get value out of buying.

We're buying with the assumption we'll have 8 to 10 years of disney vacations to aulani (we live right next to Disneyland) and/ or a trip or two to Disneyworld. At that point we can either rent it out, sell it or start taking future grandkids on those trips. Those 10 trips will be well worth the 25k I paid for them plus the 15k or so in dues I'll pay on the 300 points over that decade.

If I keep it my vacations will be dirt cheap for the rest of my life, if I sell it I'll easily get back at everything I paid with the way inflation is headed and I had amazing free vacations for a decade.

Hi! I was thinking about Aulani for the exact same reasons as you! I live close to Disneyland, we have the annual so cal passport and I wouldn't mind an overnight stay on a random day here and there, but would want a few nice Hawaii vacations plus maybe a trip or two to WDW. What will you do in 10 years? Will you sell it or rent out your points?

What do you all think will happen over time with being able to rent points? Does anyone know where theres a thread on the history of point rentals? I see the forum of what they are going for now and I have looked at David's. Right now it seems like if you own at Aulani and you don't use your points you could rent without taking a loss, maybe even make a profit if its in the 11-8 mo window? If I were to buy I think I would be using them all while my kids are young (5 & 2 right now) but I'm not sure what it would be like in 10 years. Will Aulani not be so hot since the resort will be 'older' in 10 years?

 

[pmaurer74]

This is a tough question. Traditionally prices seem to dip and there are better contracts and more contacts available after Feb when the MFs are due. I noticed that contracts were more scarce and higher priced in the summer due to people vacationing and deciding they want to buy. We bought WLV at $85 pp last summer, it was about $75pp a year ago and is $95 pp now. It is tough to tell whether they will go down but if they do it may be short term. IF there are a lot of contracts for the DVC you are looking for you may get a good deal now.

 

[Brian Noble]

Existing member looking to add on via resale. With the perks being gutted for new resale purchasers when would be the best time to buy?

Maybe (maybe) there will be a short term dip in prices. It won't be very big, nor will it last very long. I don't expect this to materially impact supply (the people who follow through on the threat to sell because they are offended will be few and far between), and the impact on demand will be minimal. The only perk worth bothering with is the AP discount, and that will only weigh heavily on small contracts. But, new buyers can't buy small contracts directly, and existing owners already have qualified accounts.

Macroeconomic forces are a much bigger driver, followed by seasonal variations.

 

[gatorskin76]

My Magic 8 ball says......"better not tell you now".

I can say, that when the last changes came around there were some very definite ideas of what would happen and predictions were not necessarily correct when looking long term. If you see a drop that reaches your comfort level then I'd go ahead and purchase.

If I remember correctly, the market was really weak when that change occurred too, so hard to compare the two scenarios. I bought BWV at around $52 or $54 right after the announcement.

 

[beer dave]

Find what you want, low ball them and wait for a counter offer. It's real estate.....

Maybe someone will be jumpy because of the new changes.

 

[Sammie]

The market will "bottom" during the next recession. The value of the benefits that have been lost are probably less than $500. Don't expect the market to tank.

Oooh, I love when you speak logic .

 

[Dean]

Existing member looking to add on via resale. With the perks being gutted for new resale purchasers when would be the best time to buy?

Waiting due to price questions more than a couple of months wouldn't make sense if one needs the points to use but might if one is simply speculating or planning to pick up cheaper rental options.

 

[Supplanter]

Hi! I was thinking about Aulani for the exact same reasons as you! I live close to Disneyland, we have the annual so cal passport and I wouldn't mind an overnight stay on a random day here and there, but would want a few nice Hawaii vacations plus maybe a trip or two to WDW. What will you do in 10 years? Will you sell it or rent out your points?

What do you all think will happen over time with being able to rent points? Does anyone know where theres a thread on the history of point rentals? I see the forum of what they are going for now and I have looked at David's. Right now it seems like if you own at Aulani and you don't use your points you could rent without taking a loss, maybe even make a profit if its in the 11-8 mo window? If I were to buy I think I would be using them all while my kids are young (5 & 2 right now) but I'm not sure what it would be like in 10 years. Will Aulani not be so hot since the resort will be 'older' in 10 years?

The best overall value resort is saratoga springs. If you buy there between initial costs and dues, you end up with an annualized cost of 7 to 8 dollars a point. You can fairly easily rent them out for 10 to 12 a point. It's not huge profits, but it can make you around 1k a year beyond costs if you have a good number of points.

To me, I'm spending the money on my next 10+ vacations. Once those are done it'll probably depend on How my kids feel About using the club, etc... My guess is that I'll buy a ton more points and give each kid their own contract to enjoy when they get older but that's still really far away.

 

[Minniesgal]

I'm. Not anticipating a massive impact on resale prices the perks lost while nice didn't add up to huge sums.

The right time to buy is when you find the right contract

 

[DVCanadian]

2011