(When) will DVC go “negative”?

[airjay75]

The entire 7 month booking window would collapse if there wasn't rough parity across the points charts. If LSL's chart is meaningfully higher than BRV and CCV, nobody will ever book it at 7 months and the entire system would devolve into gridlock.

I guess we'lll see, but I only see that being true if LSL rooms and accommodations are comparable to CCV/BRV rooms.

LSL studios - make it similar square footage to RIV/VGF with the 5th sleeper.
LSL 1 BRs - make it similar square footage to PIT with 2 bathrooms.
LSL 2 BRs - make it similar square footage to PIT with 3 bathrooms; 2 BR lock-offs will be able to sleep 10, more than PIT lock-offs (but equal to RIV)
LSL 3 BRs - bump up the square footage over CCV GVs or just keep the points here similar since CCV GVs are already pretty much in line with other resorts that have GVs

That will make LSL studios, 1 BR, and 2 BRs superior to CCV/BRV in every way. Throw in the lazy river and/or combining with CFW - you've now got 4 resort pools and just a much more expansive resort with more options than WL. I think that will get that points chart to at least a RIV level, and probably just a bit higher.

 

[airjay75]

And, they'll throw in resort and preferred view categories at LSL, which CCV/BRV does not have. Will be interesting to see how they game that with the balance of room categories and point differential between the view categories. I think the RIV points chart is the most logical guide there.

 

[ark101]

Disney converted wilderness lodge hotel rooms to CCV and GF hotel rooms to VGF2 because people weren't paying cash demanded at those locations. Do you think people will pay higher cash rates at LSL compared to Wilderness Lodge with the improvements you mentioned? If yes, how much more? Will they pay RIV level cash prices? Personally, I don't believe so. I think the point charts especially for 'resort view' will be closer to CCV than RIV. Again, these are all opinions but am excited to see where they actually land. No doubt the A frames will eat up a ton of points to compensate like the CCV cabins or Poly bungalows.

 

[Brian Noble]

I can go on Booking.com right now and find 50 options for Key West. Then go on Airbnb and find another 100 options for Key West. Why am I buying a timeshare?

I have an anecdotal answer. Our first several years of annual WDW trips were booked via VRBO. We would get a townhome or pool home, usually at Windsor Hills, within spitting distance of the parks for a really good rate. And, when I say "spitting distance" I mean: I could put the Wishes CD in the player when I started the car in the MK parking lot, and be parked at "home" and have the car turned off before it was done. The entire CD is just over 15 minutes long. When I say "really good rate" I mean: the home rental plus rental car and theme park parking usually came in somewhere between a single Value room and a single Moderate for the same dates.

But, scouring VRBO is a royal PITA. All of the homes are different. Some are pretty obviously well-kept, others are...not. But you have to actually look at the listing to figure that out. The prices vary widely, and they mostly but do not always track with the quality of the interior. Throw in the "there might be something better" FOMO, and it was a non-trivial undertaking each year to find the right place.

Plus, VRBO (and Airbnb) properties are not resorts. It's like staying in your fairly well-to-do Uncle Doug's vacation home while he isn't using it himself---and that was literally true one year! They are very nice, but the vibe is totally different from a resort, even at a short-term rental community like Windsor Hills. When the kids were little, this was perfect--we wanted the quiet and more private vibe of a rental home. But as they grew, we realized we wanted to stay somewhere with a bit more "vacation energy."

Those two factors led me to consider a timeshare. I ended up passing on DVC, becuase (a) doing that for our annual Disney trip would have consumed our entire vacation budget and (b) I was worried about the kids "aging out" of Disney before I reached the payoff horizon. Instead, I ended up buying a resale Wyndham timeshare for about a dime on the dollar, thinking I would use it for Bonnet Creek every year. It wasn't any less expensive than just renting as I went---even as an el-cheapo resale acquisition---but it was a better solution to our Orlando vacation needs. It also turned out to support a LOT of other really fantastic vacations I would never have taken otherwise.

So, TL;DR: A timesahre gave me a recurring, consistent resort experience for a very good price with minimal ongoing work to secure it.

resale RIV (for the right price) is the best play in DVC.

I'm starting to think that might be true. I would never have considered it if I had not already had direct RIV points, but there is surprising value there for folks who would like to stay at RIV regularly.

overvalues the ability to exchange into other resorts

I'm not sure that's objectively true, becuase this is necessarily a subjective value. Some people might place a huge value on novelty. Others would be perfectly happy to do the same thing over and over. I don't think there is only one answer to this. I do suspect that people think it will matter more to them then it actually would, but perception, reality, blah blah blah.

I do think there is one subtlety that is worth adding to this. If one is primairly interested in studios, the ability to exchnage narrows pretty quickly. So even though you can do it in principle, in practice it is a little bit harder. However, if you are a 1BR person, then the world is much more your oyster.

undervalues length of contract.

On this, we agree.

Looking at an example for Riviera staying 6/7/26 - 6/14/26

I appreciated this! But I also do think it is worth considering that Dues are not the only cost. Worse, in the earlier days of ownership, they might not even be the dominant cost.

Everyone does this a little differently, but when I want to know the "cost" of one of my DVC points, there are two factors. The Dues, and the apportioned cost of the per-point purchase price for that year's point. I'm a dork, so I don't use straight division for this. Instead, I amortize the purchase price across the life of the contract at some reasonable esimate of inflation. (I tend to use 4% as a conservative estimate of the long-run US inflation rate.) When I do that, I'd come out at a slight loss on my developer points vs. the 40% passholder promo in either 1BR, but would pretty much break even on the 30% version.

Happily, the resale points remain in the black no matter what. Furthermore, over time both should improve vs. prevailing rental rates. that's becuase only Dues are subject to inflation, while the amortized purchase cost is in constant dollars. That won't be true for rental rates. This is the same line of thinking I use when I explain to my kids why it is sometimes worth stretching to buy a house vs. renting. The only inflationary terms as a homeowner are taxes and insurance; principal and interest stay constant.

Of course, that ignores maintenance, which is also inflationary, but seeing as I just bought a 90+ year old house, I'm not going to think about that very much!

 

[Dodgerburt8]

For a long time Disney appeared invincible. I believe this was because of the tremendous brand value they built up over years of relatively smart management of both their theme parks and movie studios. While Six Flags and Universal were pumping out rollercoasters, closing/removing entertainment and charging hundreds for front of the line access, Disney had free fastpass system, and invested heavily in place making, park operations and customer service. They also were churning out iconic family entertainment (Lion King, Aladdin, Mermaid, Toy Story etc.). Disney somewhat resisted through the Eisner years the private equity business model. Sadly those days are gone. Under Iger, Disney has chosen to consistently erode their brand loyalty and embrace the short term profit approach; spending decades of built up goodwill. California certainly had fared better than Florida, and the weather there has prevented the large decrease in summer demand. Park management in Anaheim somehow managed to resist some of the bad decisions being made in FL. But the current Disney trajectory doesn’t bode well for its long term future. It seems quite possible that the bottom drops out and cash rates remain flat or decline year over year to maintain occupancy. That in turn would lead to more cost cutting, and short term decision making, resulting in a downward spiral. Meanwhile they continue to hike DVC dues 6% annually or more to cover inflation. Personally I’m riding Walt’s train for as long as I can, but I’m not optimistic about the long term future of the theme parks. I fear that within 10 years my DVC era will be forced to an end as it will no longer make enough financial sense to continue. I hope I’m wrong and that the management philosophy changes. It’s a special product and a special place. I hate to see it lose that.

 

[Brian Noble]

There's also a weird distortion field around Beach Club in particular. Beach Club owners love that place with an irrational exuberance that's completely disproportionate with how other owners feel about their home resorts.

I have a theory on this.

Back in the days of Pool Hopping, Stormalong Bay was the OG "you cannot hop there" pool. It was also the first (and for quite a while the only) pool that checked room keys and issued wristbands, and they did it every single day. As a result, SB had an air of exclusivity. The only way to set foot within the Friendly Confines was to stay at BC, YC, or BCV, and the privileged few would never have to rub shoulders with the hoi polloi from those other, lesser resorts.

DVC's langauge of Membership already feeds into the "I'm better than those people" vibe that can sometimes take hold with folks, and BCV ups the ante.

What's amusing about all of this is that---in the context of some of the other high-end resorts in Orlando---SB is good-but-not-great. I mean the "lazy river" is more or less a lazy donut. There is sand. The slide is a tallish mostly straight shot. It was fine, but I found it anticipointing when I finally stayed there. I'm also a bit of a contrarian, so YMMV.

 

[WinterSolider]

For a long time Disney appeared invincible. I believe this was because of the tremendous brand value they built up over years of relatively smart management of both their theme parks and movie studios. While Six Flags and Universal were pumping out rollercoasters, closing/removing entertainment and charging hundreds for front of the line access, Disney had free fastpass system, and invested heavily in place making, park operations and customer service. They also were churning out iconic family entertainment (Lion King, Aladdin, Mermaid, Toy Story etc.). Disney somewhat resisted through the Eisner years the private equity business model. Sadly those days are gone. Under Iger, Disney has chosen to consistently erode their brand loyalty and embrace the short term profit approach; spending decades of built up goodwill. California certainly had fared better than Florida, and the weather there has prevented the large decrease in summer demand. Park management in Anaheim somehow managed to resist some of the bad decisions being made in FL. But the current Disney trajectory doesn’t bode well for its long term future. It seems quite possible that the bottom drops out and cash rates remain flat or decline year over year to maintain occupancy. That in turn would lead to more cost cutting, and short term decision making, resulting in a downward spiral. Meanwhile they continue to hike DVC dues 6% annually or more to cover inflation. Personally I’m riding Walt’s train for as long as I can, but I’m not optimistic about the long term future of the theme parks. I fear that within 10 years my DVC era will be forced to an end as it will no longer make enough financial sense to continue. I hope I’m wrong and that the management philosophy changes. It’s a special product and a special place. I hate to see it lose that.

I'm sorry but most of this is just nostalgia-fueled nonsense.

The stretch from Tangled, Wreck-It Ralph, Frozen, Big Hero 6, Zootopia, and Moana was every bit as good creatively and commercially as Lion King, Aladdin, Mermaid, and Beauty and the Beast. Then COVID hit and everything went to hell.

Pandora and Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge are better themed than every single inch of Walt's original Disneyland, by miles and miles, you just don't like the IP. And that's fine, you don't have to like the IP. But they're deeply immersive and every bit as good as Harry Potter. Then COVID hit and again, everything went to hell.

And oh by the way, the business which has had the least corner-cutting has been Cruise Line, and Disney's CFO is in love with the cruise business and wants Disney to keep pouring money into fleet expansion. They're investing like crazy in their most outstanding product.

 

[WinterSolider]

What's amusing about all of this is that---in the context of some of the other high-end resorts in Orlando---SB is good-but-not-great. I mean the "lazy river" is more or less a lazy donut. There is sand. The slide is a tallish mostly straight shot. It was fine, but I found it anticipointing when I finally stayed there. I'm also a bit of a contrarian, so YMMV.

Plus the whole place reeks like fish because they thought it would be a good idea to have a seafood buffet that's open-air to the resort common spaces, and it's decorated like your dead great grandmother's shore house.

I'm not an architect, but the only DVC resorts that feel elevated to me from a "how would I rate this resort if it was located in the middle of nowhere" perspective are Animal Kingdom Lodge, Grand Cal, and Aulani.

 

[Brian Noble]

Pandora and Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge are better themed than every single inch of Walt's original Disneyland, by miles and miles, you just don't like the IP. And that's fine, you don't have to like the IP. But they're deeply immersive and every bit as good as Harry Potter.

IMO, Cars Land at Disneyland ushered in this age of New Imagineering. That place is amazing. I also think New Fantasyland deserves more credit than it gets.

 

[Brian Noble]

One other thought about pools, and great vs. good vs. okay ones: When my kids were little, they had three requirements of any vacation spot.

1. It had to have a pool
2. The pool had to contain water.
3. The water had to be wet.

Any hotel that met those three criteria was the Best Place Ever as far as they were concerned.

 

[WinterSolider]

IMO, Cars Land at Disneyland ushered in this age of New Imagineering.

The absolute pinnacle of "holy crap, I have literally walked inside a movie."

I also think New Fantasyland deserves more credit than it gets.

I agree, but Disney deserves a lot of the blame for announcing too much, too soon. They get everyone all excited with concept art for things like Pixie Hollow and then as plans evolve, everything that's not an exact match to that original concept are is decried as "bean counters destroying the hopes and dreams of the geniuses at WDI" blah blah blah.

 

[Brian Noble]

I suspect there is a reason we have not seen much about the Encantoverse, Piston-Whatever, and Villains-R-Us.

,,,or, for that matter, The Resort Formerly Known As Reflections.

 

[Dodgerburt8]

I'm sorry but most of this is just nostalgia-fueled nonsense.

The stretch from Tangled, Wreck-It Ralph, Frozen, Big Hero 6, Zootopia, and Moana was every bit as good creatively and commercially as Lion King, Aladdin, Mermaid, and Beauty and the Beast. Then COVID hit and everything went to hell.

Pandora and Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge are better themed than every single inch of Walt's original Disneyland, by miles and miles, you just don't like the IP. And that's fine, you don't have to like the IP. But they're deeply immersive and every bit as good as Harry Potter. Then COVID hit and again, everything went to hell.

And oh by the way, the business which has had the least corner-cutting has been Cruise Line, and Disney's CFO is in love with the cruise business and wants Disney to keep pouring money into fleet expansion. They're investing like crazy in their most outstanding product.

I plead guilty on being nostalgia fueled!

I didn't mean to say that I don’t love or appreciate the park investment and positive developments that have occurred in the modern era. I acknowledge that Disney, in part because of commercial pressure from Universal, has continued to invest in their theme parks and has hit more than a few home runs. I’m not arguing that everything they do is bad. DCA is the perfect counterpoint. Eisner fully cheaped out on that, and Iger has done a fantastic job remaking it into one of Disney’s best parks. But come on, Big Hero 6 and Tangled are as good as Lion King and Beauty and Beast? Disney like all of Hollywood, is pretty creatively hollowed out. It’s all corporate data driven investment. It’s not designed to create life long customers but to pull as much money as possible from their pockets in this fiscal year.

And the cost cutting monster hit Galaxy’s edge and the Star Wars Hotel despite their impressive scale. They created a visually amazing but hollow place that nobody wants to linger in. I love the Star Wars IP and ROR is Disney’s best ride, but I wish they managed to do half as good of job with the place making that Universal did with Harry Potter. They are still trying (and mostly failing) to make changes to the Land to get people to spend time there. Although I will admit that it is a hell of a nice place to buy 200 dollar lightsabers that break in 3 months. Cars Land was amazing but yeah you’re right, I hate that IP. Wish they spent that billion dollars on recreating the world of a good movie. But to quote the Big Lebowski, that’s just my opinion man.

My point is simply that current Disney is undermining their future by being too Wall Street focused. Too much emphasis on maximizing EBITA and shareholder value and not enough on building goodwill and customer loyalty. The return on investment approach with Iger’s Disney will continue to give us Avengers part 20, live action remakes from their golden animation era, and as much Mater, Anna and Elsa as you can stomach. Maybe I’m too cynical, and I almost certainly give too much credit to past versions of this company, but the current Wall Street first approach is pretty blatant and in my view is undermining their future success.

 

[gvel]

Plus the whole place reeks like fish because they thought it would be a good idea to have a seafood buffet that's open-air to the resort common spaces, and it's decorated like your dead great grandmother's shore house.

I'm not an architect, but the only DVC resorts that feel elevated to me from a "how would I rate this resort if it was located in the middle of nowhere" perspective are Animal Kingdom Lodge, Grand Cal, and Aulani.

I enjoy doing that mental exercise " how would I rate this resort if it was located in the middle of nowhere" or the "how much I would be willing to pay for this resort if located elsewhere?"

Obviously due to their location people pay what they pay. However, I think Disney that for the most part Disney has gotten away with murder with their resorts with the exception of GF and GC. Like you call this a deluxe property yet don't even get the option of ordering room service? All these "amenities" and "deluxe" pools?! Most DVC pool complexes don't even compare to resorts outside of the bubble. Etc.

The only real deluxe property in WDW is 4 seasons

 

[WinterSolider]

The only real deluxe property in WDW is 4 seasons

People overstate this case. I JUST stayed at the Conrad Fort Lauderdale Beach and it was a piece of crap. Yeah, on paper the list of amenities were what you'd expect from a 5-star property. But the quality of everything was poor, the room was worn down worse than anything I've ever seen from Disney, service was nonexistent, the pool, pool furniture, and beach chairs were beat to hell, etc.

I don't understand the obsession people have with room service. I've stayed in Four Seasons, Conrads, JW Marriotts, Ritz-Carltons. Room service is horrible. Always. And the end result is that your $900 hotel room has hallways littered with people's discarded salad scraps and wine glasses.

 

[gsdweller]

People overstate this case.

I agree with this completely. I have stayed in more than a few of "the top 20 hotels in the world", and overall quality can be hit and miss depending on the season, and when they are due for an upgrade. (for the average joe like me).
The reason they are on the list is because of the capacity and quality of their super high-end suites, and the clientele that likes to stay in them.

 

[Brian Noble]

Room service is horrible. Always.

I don't know. The chicken wings at the Westin in DC near the National Science Foundation are pretty good, and manage to survive a trip to the room reasonably well. And it is hard to mess up celery and blue cheese.

In general, I think Disney is a capable mid-tier hotelier. At the Value price point, that's exceptional. At the Deluxe price point, it's maybe not exceptional (see: the Conrad) but it is probably not great. They are pretty good at handling problems that are in the Standard Playbook, but once you get past that, they fall off pretty quickly compared to the staff at better business class properties.

That's not universal of course. A friend of mine once pointed out that the capable Disney Resort CMs are those whose cast outfits fit properly. I've found that to be a good tell over the years!

There are a lot of "luxury" properties that are trading on reputation more than reality. Some of them at least have character, while others are just old. But, when you get a good one, there is a noticeable difference.

 

[gvel]

People overstate this case. I JUST stayed at the Conrad Fort Lauderdale Beach and it was a piece of crap. Yeah, on paper the list of amenities were what you'd expect from a 5-star property. But the quality of everything was poor, the room was worn down worse than anything I've ever seen from Disney, service was nonexistent, the pool, pool furniture, and beach chairs were beat to hell, etc.

I don't understand the obsession people have with room service. I've stayed in Four Seasons, Conrads, JW Marriotts, Ritz-Carltons. Room service is horrible. Always. And the end result is that your $900 hotel room has hallways littered with people's discarded salad scraps and wine glasses.

The room service argument is about the level of service and amenities expected out of a nice hotel and having the option/flexibility to get something to your room. I know the food is not necessarily great (I have stayed close to 1,500 nights between Marriotts and Hyatts), but it is an option for a bite specially so when all other restaurant options are closed at the resort. Last September we went to MNSSHP and we got back to the BC we had zero options to grab something to eat.

 

[VGCgroupie]

The room service argument is about the level of service and amenities expected out of a nice hotel and having the option/flexibility to get something to your room. I know the food is not necessarily great (I have stayed close to 1,500 nights between Marriotts and Hyatts), but it is an option for a bite specially so when all other restaurant options are closed at the resort. Last September we went to MNSSHP and we got back to the BC we had zero options to grab something to eat.

I can say having room service at VGC and VDH is amazing. I think the food is pretty decent too.

 

[Disney.dad]

I can say having room service at VGC and VDH is amazing. I think the food is pretty decent too.

My wife absolutely loves room service for breakfast and occasionally a late supper after the parks. We utilize it frequently at GF, GCali and DLH that we own all 3 of and bought in part due to the availability of room service. We love Riviera Resort but it is really missing having it. Hopefully LSL will have both room service and 10 person lockoffs with a points chart similar to Riviera.