When weather.com says rain 30% chance....

[andriade]

How likely is it that the rain will really come. For the week we are there it says 30% chance of scattered showers. It says it for 2 days of our trip. In your experiences, has rain really come? And, how bad would those "scattered showers" be? I ask because, here in California, 30% is nothing. We wouldn't get rain if it said 30%.

I am just trying to see if our trip is going to be ruined.

Thanks!

 

[MinnieM21]

For my trip in October, it was forecasted that it would rain almost everyday and it never rained once. I think it said about 20%-30% chance that there would be scattered showers.

 

[bicker]

I've found most weather reports to be accurate with 50%. So if they're saying 30% chance of rain, it's actually between -20% and 80% chance of rain.


Okay, I'm getting punchy now. I hope my wife gets better soon.

 

[outtonight]

In southeastern Georgia (4 hours north of Orlando), I've found that 30% chance means either a light drizzle (nothing to be worried about) or a quick 20-40 minute shower in the mid-afternoon. Either way, you don't need to worry about your vacation being ruined -- just remember to bring a poncho just in case.

 

[safetymom]

Showers are widely scattered here in Orlando. It can be raining on one side of the park and not the other. Usually though it rains and then the sun comes out.

 

[andriade]

Thanks, I feel sooooo much better now!

 

[andriade]

Oh No! It now says 60% chance! I guess we need to dust off our ponchos. Does the rain clear out some guests? Maybe we'll have the place to ourselves.