tomandrobin
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2006
- Messages
- 4,001
Everyone has their own opinion.....
but don't doubt the movement on the contemporary.....it will very quickly move to #1 on the desirability scale in DVC.....there is no question on that....
It will well at a much more rapid pace than anything since Beach Club.....and i would not be shocked at all if it was close to soldout by the time it opens....
So you are willing to bet that Disney will sell 37,500 "160" point contracts by next September, just for BLT.
That is 815 BLT contracts per week, 116 BLT contracts a day, 11 contracts an hour (based on a 10 hour work day).
And all of those BLT sales are going on with AKV,SSR and 2009 GCV - never!
Animal Kingdom and Saratoga sales will not affect the demand for a monorail line hotel....it is like an apples to oranges scenario.....
Really - How many buyers can see the value of less cost per point, book in BLT at the 7 month mark......plenty.
Realize that my take isn't just based on the habits of the DVCers......there is a much more attractive selling angle to having a "walt designed" location next to the flagship park than they've ever had before.....
Walt didn't design the Contemporary or BLT. In fact, I don't think Walt wanted to be in the hotel/lodging business.
the economy might slow sales some....as the overtaxed families that have recently gobbled up units at Saratoga and Animal Kingdom are going to very quickly understand the mistake they've made....and DVC sales might go back towards the older circuit that ended up purchasing large amounts of OKW, HHI, VB, and Boardwalk....
but i don't think anything short of a complete crash will kill the contemp sales.....
I don't think anything is going to kill sales to BLT. Your enthusiasm is blinding you from seeing the hard numbers about DVC sales.
If you build with a monorail and a castle out the window....they will buy
Disney knows this.....they are selling rooms at the polynesian and contemporary for $415.00 that sold at $29.00 a night in 1971....
that's way more than normal inflation....
to quote Billy Clinton (sorta) "It's the Castle, stupid!"
First, based on your theory, all sales will cease at AKV and SSR, since BLT has been made available.
Second, people pay those prices because of the "class" of accommodations they think they are receiving. Wait until the Four Seasons Resort opens thier doors, then you will see first class service and amenities.
Third, the cash rate of what Disney is charging at the Poly, has nothing to do with sales at BLT. I read that DVC had to start charging higher interest rates now for DVC purchasers who finance. I am sure that will only hurt sales too.
But to also quote Bill Clinton (sorta) "It's about the simple math, stupid!!