What's up with MK wait times?

[mom2rtk]

I have to agree that it is totally plausible that the crazy winter weather has played a part in the larger crowds at Spring Break time. If we didn't already have a trip planned for May I could have seen us jumping on the bandwagon. Here in MO, there are lots of schools in our area off this entire week.

I'm in Missouri and my daughter's school is making up snow days over spring break and Easter break. It would have actually been harder for us to get away this year over spring break because of the severe winter.

 

[PinkBudgie]

I'm looking at Spring Break time as an example of how June might be. Before now, I didn't really pay much attention because how FP+ and SB works in Feb really had nothing to do with my summer trip.

What rides are good to head to at RP at the various parks? I've seen lists of best FP+ rides but I don't know which ones would be best to ride in the first few hours.

 

[fabfivefigo]

I was really expecting a lot of people to chime in saying that the original predictions by TP were closer to what they were experiencing and that Disney's reported wait times were over estimated. But we didn't. So right now, I am left to conclude that the posted wait times were close to accurate and that TP was way low in its predicition. From that, I draw the conclusion that either TP severly missed in its crowd prediction for the day, (which is possible), or that TPs metrics haven't caught up with the effects of FP+ yet and that it doesn't quite have a handle on what a 9 or 10 day at the park will really look like under this new innovation (which is also possible). As between the two choices, I could only guess.

I would put my money on the prediction industry not having caught up with what a 9 or a 10 day at the park means now. We went during the first week of march, mostly level 5 days, but the waits we expereinced were quite a bit higher than what I had seen generally described as wait times for level 5 crowds.

 

[redsbe]

As of 10 am today (Thurs 3/37) wait times in MK look fine, most 30 minutes or less some are still walk-on - even without FP+. Crowd predictors show 8 with MK not recommended. Issues with TSM in DS and Soarin and TT in EPCOT, but that has been the case for a long time, certainly before FP+ and recent crowd concerns. Suspect waits will increase by this afternoon but does show that even with a busy week RD still has it advantages even during peak crowds.

 

[jmkrat]

In the past we've gone at this time ( this is Spring Break for many schools) and this was typically what we saw during the day. This was long before the new FP system. We usually either arrived very early or stayed very late. The extended hours helped us at MK.

 

[JimmyV]

As of 10 am today (Thurs 3/37) wait times in MK look fine, most 30 minutes or less some are still walk-on - even without FP+. Crowd predictors show 8 with MK not recommended.

I don't think that conclusions can be drawn until we hit the 2:00-5:00 timeframe. Remember that the "preferred strategy" is to tour SB early and use FP+ later in the day. It is when the FP return lines are heel-to-toe with people that we see the SB lines bog down. Over the last few days, the people who have been reporting: "OMG. I've never seen it this crowded!" have all done so in the afternoon, which makes perfect sense. It's not that the parks are actually more crowded. It is because many of those people are cashing in their FPs during that time and the SB lines become stagnant. Check back with us at 3:00 and let us know what the SB lines look like.

 

[johde]

This is the new normal.

• Arrive at RD.
• Do as much as you can before the crowds build.
• Use your 3 FPs after lunch.
• And then leave because everything has a long SB wait. Didn't get to everything you wanted to in a single day?
• Come back tomorrow.
• Wash. Rinse Repeat.

The "I love FP+ because I can sleep in" concept is a myth on busy days. Granted, sleeping in on busy days under FP- was a bad idea too, so nothing has changed there. But this idea that FP+ is the salve that heals the need for arriving early is simply a myth unless you want to arrive mid-day, do three FP rides, and then leave. (Or wait in 80 minute lines).

If the parks are open late, well past the fireworks, coming back for late evening rides can also be very profitable.

Yes, but....This is what I find most troubling. See if you can detect a pattern. (Data from Touring Plans at 4:47 p.m.)


This is a very sophisticated site that uses tons of data to make predictions based on past years experiences, crowd levels, vacation schedules, and whatever else goes into such metrics. While far from perfect, their predictions are usually eerily close. To be off by so much tells me that something is amiss. Or "something is a miss." Or the posted times are just way off.

This year, it seems like, Touring plan has seems to be more likely to underestimate crowds than overestimate crowd. If your curious, you can get old "play by plays" of the day on their website without a subscription. For example, yesterday at the MK is here http://touringplans.com/magic-kingdom/wait-times/date/2014-03-26 . They were predicting an 8 and it ended up being a 9 and looking at the individual rides used for predicting it was almost a 10. You can see original predicted wait times, revised predictions (day of in lines app), Disney's posted wait times, and Lines users submissions of actual wait times. Users start the wait in line when they enter the line and stop it when they board the ride.

The question is where is the problem. Everybody here is quick to jump on the FP+ is causing 110% of the line problems. But yesterday there were reports of the parking lot closing that sounds like a 10 or almost 10 crowd day and touring plan just "blowing it" for some reason. Some of these lines could be caused by a large influx of people for abroad and here at home as the economy slowly improves. Disney second quarter ends March 31st. so hopefully end of April early May we'll get some indication of attendance for Jan - Mar (Disney doesn't give exact attendance figures).

 

[Sco]

I have no doubt that Disney is inflating stand by wait times right now. The times I went SB since FP+, it has been less than posted times, except for the Princesses. Obviously there are more people using FP+ than the old paper FP, meaning more people are going into the FP line, slowing the SB lines. IMO anyway, stand by lines do move slower these days.

While the posted times may look better as they gain experience, the reality is that, despite logic, both lines will forever be longer now with FP+. Making the overall experience less for most guests. Maybe improving some guest because they will use FP+ when they didn't before. We will never really know how well the business is effected by FP+ but I do know for me, the experience is less right now and I don't like it. I also do not see how they can even improve it to improve it enough from its current form to make me change my mind. Too many problems that I can't see going away. Just seems like they could/should have done better after spending a billion dollars.

 

[Oomiak]

I was in MK yesterday, starting at 7:45 with a CP breakfast. I can say that the old strategy of hit them early works great...until about 9:30. My experience this week is that lines start backing up way earlier. I don't consider a 15 minute wait for HM or PoTC at 9:30 to be walk on. By 10:00 they will likely be 35-45 minutes each. I've had to pre-opening breakfasts at MK this week and was not able to get nearly as much done as I have been able to in the past. I don't know what idiot thought filming a TV show at MK this week would be a good idea. "The Middle" has clogged things up twice this week for me. As far as reports coming in around 3:00 for the wist times...I can assure you it was just as bad at 1:00 as it was at 3:00. Fantasyland was nearly impassable at 1:00 yesterday afternoon.

I have been here many times when it's crowded and many times when it isn't. These crowds are the heaviest I've ever seen. Lines for FP+ kiosks are an hour long!! An hour, just to choose FP's for later on! Thankfully, I didn't have to worry about that, but my sister did. It's crazy here now.

 

[Oomiak]

I have no doubt that Disney is inflating stand by wait times right now. The times I went SB since FP+, it has been less than posted times, except for the Princesses. Obviously there are more people using FP+ than the old paper FP, meaning more people are going into the FP line, slowing the SB lines. IMO anyway, stand by lines do move slower these days.

While the posted times may look better as they gain experience, the reality is that, despite logic, both lines will forever be longer now with FP+. Making the overall experience less for most guests. Maybe improving some guest because they will use FP+ when they didn't before. We will never really know how well the business is effected by FP+ but I do know for me, the experience is less right now and I don't like it. I also do not see how they can even improve it to improve it enough from its current form to make me change my mind. Too many problems that I can't see going away. Just seems like they could/should have done better after spending a billion dollars.

My experience this week is that the SB wait times are not inflated. In fact, I have found several of them to have posted wait time lower than the actual wait time.

 

[JimmyV]

If your curious, you can get old "play by plays" of the day on their website without a subscription.

Here's my takeaway from looking at their data. The biggest deltas between "predicted" and "adjusted"/"observed" come at attractions that did not utilize FP- but now use FP+. Look at Haunted Mansion and Pirates. TP has no past data from which to predict waits at those attractions because its past data was all predicated on no one using FP. Now that FP is used at these attractions, the game has changed. It stands to reason that the introduction of FP+ to these attractions is slowing down the SB lines starting at noon (when people start to cash in their FPs) and that TP did not and could not account for this because it doesn't have past data under this approach. You will see that the variation is not great before noon, (when most people are probably riding SB), and the variation is not great at Peter Pan and Space Mountain (where FP was used before). But at PoTC and HM, the difference is huge in the afternoon. The notion that FP+ is bogging down SB lines is not imaginary. The "average" wait time may net out to being a "wash" after you factor in the short wait for FP people. But that is cold comfort for the folks who don't have FPs for those attractions.

 

[mom2rtk]

Lines for FP+ kiosks are an hour long!! An hour, just to choose FP's for later on!

 

[Dreams0308]

My parents are down there now and they were at the MK yesterday. They kept sending me texts and pictures about the crowds and wait times. They were saying they have NEVER seen it this crowded (and we've seen the long lines before its just crowded in addition to that).

My Mom was saying walking around wasn't really even walking, they were just shuffling everywhere with the hoards . She just kept saying its SOOO slow moving and you can't get around it.

 

[FlipHipster]

Holy guacamole! Don't see a lot of smiles in those pics. Well I did see one kid sorta smiling. Is that one guy in the first pic using binoculars to see the front of the line ???

 

[Dreams0308]

Holy guacamole! Don't see a lot of smiles in those pics. Well I did see one kid sorta smiling. Is that one guy in the first pic using binoculars to see the front of the line ???

HAHAHA 90 min, i think I can see the load area!!!

These are mostly taken in Frontierland/ going to Tom Sawyer Island to escape the craziness.

Everyone does look kind of spaced out...... "ALL I SEE IS PEOPLE!"

 

[jade1]

HAHAHA 90 min, i think I can see the load area!!!

These are mostly taken in Frontierland/ going to Tom Sawyer Island to escape the craziness.

Everyone does look kind of spaced out...... "ALL I SEE IS PEOPLE!"

Ha "spaced out" not in the way you meant.

It may be busier than normal, but that's how it always looks when we are there. We don't mind crowds, but there is not a lot of expectation from our group regarding headliners anyway.

Admit we do enjoy the lake, golf course and SAB while this is going on-the only reason to fight through it was a FP- or 2, maybe 3. But reserving it from my computer at home (or even a beach chair at SAB) crushes wading through that mass of humanity. Now we will just drop in later and head right to a reserved headliner spot.

 

[estherhead]

Ha "spaced out" not in the way you meant. It may be busier than normal, but that's how it always looks when we are there. We don't mind crowds, but there is not a lot of expectation from our group regarding headliners anyway. Admit we do enjoy the lake, golf course and SAB while this is going on-the only reason to fight through it was a FP- or 2, maybe 3. But reserving it from my computer at home (or even a beach chair at SAB) crushes wading through that mass of humanity. Now we will just drop in later and head right to a reserved headliner spot.

We don't mind crowds either and we do Disney enough we don't have to do everything. But the issue yesterday with those crowds wasn't the rides. It was actually scary. The main horrors were Tomorrowland at Buzz/Monsters/Stitch and Frontierland. At one point I was shoved from behind not on purpose but from the crowd pressing forward and I was behind a cast member so I then fell into her. She turned to me and said "follow me, I'll make a path". I put my hand on her shoulder and with my kids in a straight line behind me and we passed safely. My sister was pushing a stroller though and had a totally different and very negative experience.

It was New Years Eve Time Square without cops on horses.

We're at Epcot today and so far it's been delightful. Here's hoping it stays manageable.

 

[ferd]

We don't mind crowds either and we do Disney enough we don't have to do everything. But the issue yesterday with those crowds wasn't the rides. It was actually scary. ...

My sister was pushing a stroller though and had a totally different and very negative experience.

This is just it! These lines and crowds and all the confusion from people trying to figure out what a kiosk is for and where to go and what line is FP+ and what is standby just creates so much chaos and for those of us with small children in strollers it can become quite impossible and a bit frightening to push through.

 

[Minnie222]

The pictures look like a crowd level of 9.5. Josh's website has predicted level 9, but it looks like more than that in reality.

We went two weeks ago, with predict 9, actual ~7 crowd levels. I thought this year having Easter further away has spread out the Spring Break crowd over many weeks. But it seems that this week shows a real high crowd Spring Break scenario.

I agree that they should move the film shooting to other weeks. Totally not wise to put it in this week.

I hope that guests there make it up by getting more done during the late night hours.

 

[estherhead]

The pictures look like a crowd level of 9.5. Josh's website has predicted level 9, but it looks like more than that in reality. We went two weeks ago, with predict 9, actual ~7 crowd levels. I thought this year having Easter further away has spread out the Spring Break crowd over many weeks. But it seems that this week shows a real high crowd Spring Break scenario. I agree that they should move the film shooting to other weeks. Totally not wise to put it in this week. I hope that guests there make it up by getting more done during the late night hours.

We were in MK from 1-11:30 pm. We did Philharmagic, BOG lunch (had FP & preordered), ETWB, Stitch, COP, Buzz, face painting, Space, played Pirates Adventure, Aladdin, PoC, Splash twice, BTMRR, Monsters, and Space again. The longest line we stood in was the 2nd Space My. Posted 40 min at 11:00, but actually 18 minutes. Pirates was posted 30 minutes but only took us 6!

So it isn't the lines for us. Either coming at rope drop or staying late and using FP+ from 11am-7:00 on works great. I'm still thinking fp+ works for us. But a level 9.5 day with filming and FP+ kiosk lines: no way.