what will BCV cost per point?

[disneymommy]

I tried to find an existing thread with this info, but the search feature is currently unavailable. Does anyone know what BCV will sell for per point? Thanks!

 

[spruce]

Some say $80 but disney has never announced a price yet....spruce

 

[Richyams]

Before 9/11, I believe $85+ was a sure thing. Now the only thing I can be sure of is that there will be an increase between now and when they go on sale, I think there will be another increase when the closings can begin to happen;

 

[spruce]

I don't think Disney would have gone from the current $75 to $85 in one jump. It'll get there though, and then some...spruce

 

[ralphd]

DVD will probably announce a price increase prior to opening BCV sales. Also think they will give existing DVC members a chance to do an add-on prior to the price increase.

Anyone else want to guess?

ralphd

 

[friskykitten]

I am not going to quote my guide as he asked me not to. This is purely his speculation and is not a fact or true knowledge in any way. Price/point will go up but not right away. Maybe not even for six months or more. It is also possible that other than not upping the price/point they will not have any additional incentives to buy BCV, like Magical Beginnings, etc. Whether this is due to the "recession" or other factors is also speculation.

As always we won't know anything until DVC actually releases information but we can all guess at it!

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by ralphd
DVD will probably announce a price increase prior to opening BCV sales. Also think they will give existing DVC members a chance to do an add-on prior to the price increase.

Anyone else want to guess?

ralphd

I too expect a price increase and higher points than WLV and Preferred BW. I do think though that the increase will be modest compared to what it would have been before the recent events of recession and the like. Maybe an opening price of $78 (possibly even $80) no or $5 pp MB would be my guess. Since they announced the price increase for WL and included existing members in the higher price, I'd suspect they'll do that again. I'm sure they want to capture the initial push of members and non members waiting for BCV to open. They'll then compensate with the MB at a more reasonable amount once things start to slow down, maybe back at $10 pp.

My guess is that the points per room will be around 10% higher than WLV but even if the same as WLV and BW preferred, that'll still put it higher than BW because all of the views will be fairly comparable to the standard views at BW. The best views will be like those at BW that everyone complains should be standard view rooms. Still I expect it'll sell fairly steadily, especially if they stop pool hopping to SAB as I expect them to.

 

[Richyams]

I agree with all of Dean's speculations completely.

The bad part is the increased points per night. I expect that to make seven month reservations at BWV even more difficult than they are now. I expect it to begin to effect the ease of OKW seven month reservations.

I think they should increase the upfront price instead of increasing the points per night. I kind of think it is somewhat unethical to increase the points per night. But I believe that the fact that neither HH or VB has sold out yet will force them to not increase the point price as they should.

 

[Dean]

Rich, they can still increase the VB and HH MB buy back to compensate. I don't think it'll affect BW or OKW that much, at least not in the first 5 years. Once the new wears off, that may be a different story. I wouldn't even be surprised if BW were easier in the next few years after BC opens due to the fact that OKW members who are trying other things will be starting to settle down and the NEW resort will draw reservations initially regardless of the points costs.

When WLV came out the same as BW preferred, you could have knocked me over with a feather. The sales pace in that scenario also is astounding to me. Regardless, it should be interesting the next 3 or 4 years. Just wait until DVD actually announces that the new resort is on hold which I expect them to do about the time BCV starts selling.

 

[PamOKW]

My $.02 I think the points will be the same as BWV/VWL, not higher. I expect to see an increase in price. How high an increase depends upon how well things are currently selling and when they'll begin the sales. If they are going to do pre-sales months in advance, the price may be $2-$5 higher. If they are going to start selling closer to the actual opening date, I expect a $5-$10 increase. I suspect they've adjusted their proposed prices to compensate for the decrease in tourism in general and DVC in particular.

I don't forsee offering current DVC members any advantage in timing or pricing over non-members.

 

[kem330]

Another aspect will be dues- perhaps they will recoup $$$ with higher dues/point, than higher points/night????? As Doc says "Stay Tuned"!!

 

[Terry S]

My HOPE... they keep the points the same as VWL and they don't increase the price until after they open. Hey! I can hope!

 

[Granny]

Originally posted by kem330
Another aspect will be dues- perhaps they will recoup $$$ with higher dues/point, than higher points/night?????

DVD cannot, by law, make a profit on dues. So raising the dues is not really an option unless the costs of the resort justify it. And even then, DVD cannot make any money off of it.

My guess...the same point structure as VWL (and BWV preferred) with a $80 price point. I really hope they don't have a higher point structure....I could see a lot of people buying into BCV and then seeing BWV at a lower point structure. Since the attraction of each is somewhat comparable, and no great views at BCV that we know of, it could generate a lot of 7 month pressure at BWV.

Dean...I know you have info that says EPV will be put on hold. I don't get this. I mean, isn't the DVC program a very profitable program for Disney? And the VWL fast sell out would indicate that this program still has a lot of steam in it. Why would Disney put EPV on hold? The only reason I can think of is to keep any prospective BCV buyers from putting off a purchase to wait for EPV. But if that's the reason, why announce it in the first place?

 

[Pumbaa_]

That $$ is a pretty high! I think a resale is starting to llok better and better to me. Hmmm, think I will head over to the Timeshare store and check it out!

 

[ralphd]

Think Disney will move very slowly to start Eagle Pines. They are trying to guage consumer confidence just like other major corporations. Understand DVC sales are still good, but they will not want to make a major capital expenditure mistake. The pressure is on Eisner, just like every other CEO.
Dean is more than likely correct about EPV. EP is not the only WDW construction project on hold.

ralphd

 

[EROS]

If prices do rise for BCV, I would expect the resale market to track the increase as well........... once we get through the glut of recession-induced sales. In the past, I've always seen sellers raise their asking prices as soon as it has been rumored that DVC points will be more expensive through Disney. For those of you considering resales, NOW may be the best time to strike

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by Granny
Dean...I know you have info that says EPV will be put on hold. I don't get this. I mean, isn't the DVC program a very profitable program for Disney? And the VWL fast sell out would indicate that this program still has a lot of steam in it. Why would Disney put EPV on hold? The only reason I can think of is to keep any prospective BCV buyers from putting off a purchase to wait for EPV. But if that's the reason, why announce it in the first place?

DVD has been profitable in the past FOR ON PROPERTY DEVELOPEMENTS. Things have changed to a certain extent and I'm not sure they're so profitable right now. The economy has slowed, DVD sales have slowed significantly. I'm sure they're losing money on VB and HH at present. WL has not yet sold out but realize that a large portion of the sales were due to members adding on and those waiting for WL because they really like that location. Same will be true for BCV. Realize that Pop Century has been put on hold indefinitely and that a large portion of PO has been closed off. To a certian extent, DVC competes with room rentals at other WDW resorts.

I've heard from two good sources that EP is on hold indefinitly. Whether it'll turn out to be accurate is anyone's guess. As they told us during desert storm "the truth changes". I'm sure that DVD will sit back and take notice of how BCV sells before deciding to proceed or not. Had the next project been an add on to a luxury resort (GF, Cont, Poly, AKL), I think they would have been ok. The type of person who will buy EP is somewhat different than the current DVC buyer. This is a large resort not unlike OKW in many ways and buyers will be the type that prefer OKW or the ones that want into the system and that's the only game in town if they buy directly from DVD. At a higher per point cost and more points per room than some other options, it's not the same type of venture as the current ones (WL, BC).

Had Disney decided to go for a more modest venture, say a "Moderate" DVC, they would have likely been better off. That would be the only way I could see a separate DVC II but even then it wouldn't have had to be separate. I wonder how a resort with 980 sq ft 2 BR sleep 6 units and a modest kitchen would have sold.

As for BCV points, I think we can assume they will be a little hgher than WLV and at a higher $$ per point cost. Even if it's the same schedule as WLV, it's still more than it should be due to the remote location. I estimated 10% higher in the past and looking at the points schedule, I will stick with that. I assumed 1 points per night per studio, possibly two on weekends; double that difference for 1 BR units. That's slightly less than 10% in most cases cases. Obviously if DVD comes up with a major gimick, like the free passes or a new 50 years, this will shift the equation somewhat.

 

[PKS44]

I think the so called price per point confuses the issue. The true price per point is the price paid for all the points in the contract. Example 10 years ago 150 points a year for 50 years at "$51/pt" is $7650 for 7500 total points or $1.02 per point. Since then the number of years left has decreased and the "price" has increased at a rate such that you now get 6000 points for $11250, or $1.87 a point. The initial price was too low and the demand showed that, the current price is too high, thus the MB program. I would expect the true price to increase at no more than 3%-4% per year. When you multiply $1.87 x 1.035 and then multiply that by the number of years left (39) you get about $76 a point...given the economy, the fact that no one has cancelled the business cycle, I expect the price to remain around the same initially. If demand is higher than expected, then of course they can quickly adjust up.

I also applaud DVD for holding on off EPV- one need only look at Vegas where they had the fastest growing population and an ever expanding construction schedule to see how overbuilding and losses can happen when you foolishly think that whatever is happening now will continue into the future forever.

Paul

 

[Granny]

Dean....you make excellent points about the location and style of resort that EPV would be. It really is a departure from their WDW strategy. And it would probably appeal to a different group than most of the WDW DVCers. So I agree it makes sense to put that on hold.

I guess I'll still left with my other question....why announce EPV at this time, when they are just about to start selling a new DVC resort? Maybe a trial balloon to ascertain interest?

 

[WDWguru]

New owner here (closing TOMORROW on our BWV resale and Wenesday on our VWL through Disney)! We specifically asked about this because we had considered waiting and adding on at BC rather than buy BWV resale. Our rep at Disney told us they were planning a "moderate" per-point price increase about six months after BC goes on sale, depending on the economy and sales. AND she told us FOR SURE the point chart will be THE SAME as BWV preferred/VWL.

Hope that helps!