What Movements Should I Expect from Air Canada Prices (YYZ)?

[TigerlilyAJ]

I'm trying to get together airfare for a trip in the first week of May. Buffalo Airport has JetBlue offering nonstop RT tickets to Orlando for C$288 ($576 for two). But my travel companion is very worried about having to cross a land border to get to the plane, even though I think the U.S. closing the land border again is very unlikely. Even without that, though, we need someone to drive us to Buffalo, which currently means someone would need a PCR test after dropping us off and after picking us up to drive back into Ontario* despite spending under two hours in NY. Or we can walk across the land border and pay for a taxi/Uber/shuttle? I found a website for a shuttle that claims they can pick you up on the Canadian side of the border and drive a carload to the airport for US$105. Anyone have experience with any of these scenarios? Wwyd?
So we're looking at flying out of YYZ. YYZ means that the two of us would need to test before getting on the plane, so no cost savings there wrt test needs. Here on Jan 12, 2022, Air Canada wants C$550 RT ($1100 for two). $260 more each, which almost buys each of us a third ticket on JetBlue. I always use BUF rather than YYZ because of ridiculousness like this, but haven't done any air travel in the age of Covid. Will AC's prices only keep going up? Any chance they'll go down or have a fare sale if I wait? I have no experience with watching their price patterns.
Orbitz can offer us a mixed ticket of WestJet down to Orlando, AC back to YYZ for C$442 ($884 for two, $308 more than JetBlue). Anything warnings I should know about using different airline in one trip like this?
Should I just pray for the "no tests for short trips" rule to come back for May?

*OK, we're taking a short trip, so the person who drops us off would get tested on Day 1, drive back to Ontario, and return to get us 60 hours later. So technically, could the same Day 1 test be used for Day 1 and Day 3? It would be fewer than 72 hours since the test, but I worry about them being jerks at the border about us using what they might consider a loophole.

 

[wdwmom3]

No idea on prices. They could go down.

You used to be able to book an airport shuttle that would take you from the Buffalo airport to Niagara Falls etc in Ontario. Not sure if it’s still operating though.

 

[OnceUponATime15]

Sign up for AC email sales. You just missed a 25% off sale that was offered as New Years promo - for flights up til the end of 2022. Westjet had even deeper discounts at 30% off base fares same timeframe. I was pricing YYZ/MCO return in April at around the $248 - $300 pp return non stop

Email deals come in from both weekly… some are good some are great

 

[Starwind]

*OK, we're taking a short trip, so the person who drops us off would get tested on Day 1, drive back to Ontario, and return to get us 60 hours later. So technically, could the same Day 1 test be used for Day 1 and Day 3? It would be fewer than 72 hours since the test, but I worry about them being jerks at the border about us using what they might consider a loophole.

No, they will need a new test for each trip to the US. The test for EACH trip to the US has to be done IN THE US for that specific trip before returning to Canada.

 

[KNovacovschi]

I would say they will fluctuate. I'm booked for Mar 6-12 with AC and the prices have fluctuated a couple times a week for the last little bit, always back and forth from the same prices. Keep in mind that the flights out of BUF are in US funds so change that to CDN and then compare, including that shuttle and also remember that the person that would be driving you, if you went that route, would have to test in the US each time before coming home. So I would be looking at all that as well.

 

[TigerlilyAJ]

I would say they will fluctuate. I'm booked for Mar 6-12 with AC and the prices have fluctuated a couple times a week for the last little bit, always back and forth from the same prices. Keep in mind that the flights out of BUF are in US funds so change that to CDN and then compare, including that shuttle and also remember that the person that would be driving you, if you went that route, would have to test in the US each time before coming home. So I would be looking at all that as well.

I'm a dual citizen, fluent in "translating" everything from dollars to temperatures to metric/English measurements all the time. The JetBlue price I mentioned is Canadian dollar, C$288, and that was from when we were at C$1.30=US$1. As I type, I can get $1.265 at my local currency exchange, making JetBlue more like C$280. Flying out of YYZ is literally double that. Flying out of YYZ costs each of us the same as a night of hotel at AoA added on top of the JetBlue price. Yes, I've been calculating Total Costs for either trip every day, both under current testing rules and optimistic visions of easement after March Break. (I feel 99% certain that even if Omicron burns out, the government will keep onerous PCR testing for all trips of any duration through March Break as a deterrent to travel.)
Flying out of Buffalo with someone dropping us off and picking us up means a test each way for the driver (so, two tests) plus friend and I needing two tests to cross back to Canada. Four tests. (Except maybe three if driver's test can count for both drop off and pick up, because the driver's test will still be under 72 hours old.)
Flying out of YYZ means friend and I need two tests to fly into US, and two tests to return to Canada. Four tests. So double the flight costs, plus same number of tests, albeit the two to the U.S. don't have to be PCR. But no border issues for driver, and AC has a later nonstop return flight than JetBlue, so we would get three more hours in the park, which is a lot for such a short trip and a friend who has never been.

My friend might be able to borrow a parents' car, which means we would only need our two tests to get back into Canada and pay parking at Buffalo, which is reasonable. But if Air Canada would kindly cut fares, say, 25%, the better return time and no border business for our driver would change the game. I just don't know how ridiculously slim a possibility such a dream is. Probably the same as hoping that we'll return to what we had only one short month ago: no tests needed for land-border trips under 72 hours. *SIGH* ;-)

 

[azrivest]

For March, prices seem to have plummeted. Two days ago, I rebooked our 4 tickets to Business Flexible using the same amount of Aeroplan points+cash as what I had needed for Standard fare tickets at the end of August 2021.

I'm betting a lot of people have already cancelled their trips.
My kids are going to be in (rouge) Business for the first time

 

[KNovacovschi]

For March, prices seem to have plummeted. Two days ago, I rebooked our 4 tickets to Business Flexible using the same amount of Aeroplan points+cash as what I had needed for Standard fare tickets at the end of August 2021.

I'm betting a lot of people have already cancelled their trips.
My kids are going to be in (rouge) Business for the first time

That’s awesome, ours didn’t change at all but we are going beginning of March.

 

[TigerlilyAJ]

For March, prices seem to have plummeted. Two days ago, I rebooked our 4 tickets to Business Flexible using the same amount of Aeroplan points+cash as what I had needed for Standard fare tickets at the end of August 2021.

I'm betting a lot of people have already cancelled their trips.
My kids are going to be in (rouge) Business for the first time

Wow, that's great. My AC options are still at $925 for two (so $463/person).
So I'm not sad that we bought the JetBlue tickets for C$283/person. We're driving ourselves to Buffalo, so only our two re-entry to Canada molecular tests needed after 60 hours out of the country. (Not a waste of limited testing resources at all. /s Sorry, it's hard not to editorialize when I do the math, esp when Dr. Theresa Tam partially agrees with me. )

 

[SleeplessInTO]

Thank you! Looks like prices around March break have dropped quite a bit. It was ~1350 two weeks ago, now the same trip is ~950 cad.

 

[SleeplessInTO]

Huh I just checked again this morning. Now it’s $736 for the three of us to fly round trip YYZ to MCO. Wow.

 

[wdwmom3]

Huh I just checked again this morning. Now it’s $736 for the three of us to fly round trip YYZ to MCO. Wow.

Yeah prices on AC and WestJet are all over the place. They keep going up and down. A week ago I was able to rebook my February flights and saved $300.

 

[SleeplessInTO]

Yeah prices on AC and WestJet are all over the place. They keep going up and down. A week ago I was able to rebook my February flights and saved $300.

Amazing! I’m now debating flying from Toronto instead of Buffalo. The cost is the same but extra 4 hours of driving vs dealing with Pearson… hmm

 

[TigerlilyAJ]

I think the steep drops are just for trips coming in the next 8 weeks. They probably have people pulling out or not buying as much March Break tickets as they wait to see what happens.
My May trip went down to $883, so only $21 less per person.