Originally posted by Dean
At some point, it will be essentially impossible to get into the "destination" DVC resorts during any time that's at all desirable. And don't even think about getting a difficult unit size or type OR certain resorts at the 7 month window. My guess is we're essentially at that point with SSR sales.
I don't want to derail this thread too much, but I only think that's true to a certain degree. Barring other outside influences, demand RIGHT AT seven months is unlikely to change drastically. The changes will be most noticable as one gets closer to check-in date.
Fictional example:
Let's assume that historically BCV is 60% booked at 7 months prior to a given check-in date. Since BCV is not adding any new members (without building new units), we still have the exact same audience with access to BCV in months 11-8. Regardless of how many owners DVC adds at SSR, Eagle Pines, Contemporary, etc., these additions would have no direct impact on the occupancy level of BCV when the phone lines open right at 7 months.
So, regardless of Home resort, I firmly believe that any member willing (and able) to book a non-Home resort right as the 7 month window opens will have a very high chance of getting the room they desire.
What will change is how quickly resorts book once that 7 month window opens. If a particular date currently fills-up completely at 4 months out now, it may fill at 5 months or 5 1/2 months as DVC continues to add new members.
The waitlist will also play a more important role down the road. Just within the last few days we've seen people getting rooms for December trips...even at difficult-to-book resorts. If members are making their reservations earlier than they did in the past, that will equate to a higher percentage of cancellations in the long run. We all know that the earlier you try to book a trip, the more likely it is that conflicts will arise causing a change in plans. More cancellations mean more waitlist success.
And, I'll also add that the construction of another "destination" resort (such as the Contemporary) would skew demand in ways we can only dream of. I know that you aren't a big believer in that particular project, but only time will tell.
Speaking as a SSR owner, my personal philosophy is this: I have every intention of using my points at resorts other than my Home when the nature of the trip and room availability allow me to do so. But, if demand dictates that we are "stuck" at SSR 75% of the time, I would have absolutely no problem with that.